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MDB trades against a final fair-value range of $192.74-$376.50, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $193, high $377, with mid-point at $275.
Stock analysis

MDB fair value $193–$377

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Geanalyseerd: 2026-05-10Volgende update: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Pre-profit
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Koers
$299.47
▼ -24.03 (-8.02%)
Fair value
$275
$193–$377
Beoordeling
Aanhouden
confidence 77/100
Opwaarts potentieel
-8.0%
upside to fair value
Veiligheidsmarge
$234.12
MoS level · 15%
Marktkapitalisatie
$24.1B
P/E fwd 42.5
Engelse bronNL
Engelse bron wordt weergegeven terwijl we vertalen
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§1 Samenvatting

  • Composite fair value $275 with high case $377.
  • Implied downside of 8.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 77/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$275
Margin of safety
-8.7%
Confidence
77/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$299.47Price
Low $192.74
Mid $275.44
High $376.5

MDB trades against a final fair-value range of $192.74-$376.50, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs for embedded
    High switching costs for embedded core databases
  • Network effects within developer ecosystems
    Network effects within developer ecosystems
  • Cycle upside
    Cloud migration and AI-driven unstructured data generation accelerate NoSQL adoption.

§2 Berenscenario

A contraction in IT budgets combined with hyperscalers bundling competing NoSQL products at steep discounts forces MDB to sacrifice margins. Compounded by massive stock-based compensationStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash., GAAP profitability remains elusive and terminal EV/RevenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. multiples compress heavily.

Hoe deze these kan breken

Hyperscaler Commoditization

· Medium

AWS and Azure successfully migrate new workloads to native document databases, stalling Atlas growth.

FV impact
-30% to base
Trigger
12-24 months

Margin Stagnation

· High

SBC and R&D requirements remain structurally elevated, preventing the modeled 25% long-term operating margin.

FV impact
-25% to base
Trigger
24-36 months

Multiple Compression

· Medium

Market abandons EV/Revenue anchoring for pre-profit software, applying mature PEG multiples.

FV impact
-60% to base
Trigger
6-12 months
Vroege waarschuwingssignalen om te volgen
MetriekHuidigTrigger-drempel
Atlas revenue growth decelerating below 15%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC exceeding 25% of total revenueMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
OCF-to-Net-Income divergence widening past -8xMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression below 70%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of market share to AWS DocumentDBMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Financiële historie

Winst-en-verliesrekening — laatste zes perioden
PostT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Periode2023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Omzet$1.28B$1.68B$2.01B$2.46B+24.3%
Brutowinst$934.7M$1.26B$1.47B$1.77B+23.7%
Bedrijfsresultaat$-346.7M$-233.7M$-216.1M$-137.0M—
Nettowinst$-345.4M$-176.6M$-129.1M$-71.2M—
WPA (verwaterd)$-5.03$-2.48$-1.73$-0.88—
EBITDA$-294.3M$-122.0M$-96.5M$-15.2M—
R&D$421.7M$515.9M$596.8M$716.3M+19.3%
VAA$859.7M$976.3M$1.09B$1.19B+11.4%

Kwaliteitsscores

Piotroski F-score
5 / 9
0–9 kwaliteitscomposiet
Altman Z-score
18.58
Faillissementsrisico (>3 veilig)
Beneish M-score
-2.86
Risico op winstmanipulatie
OCF / Nettowinst
-7.1
>1 wijst op hoge winstkwaliteit
Drempel boekhoudkwaliteit
Fail
Sector-aangepaste drempel
ROIC
-0.0%
Rendement op geïnvesteerd kapitaal
Sectie 3

Numbers analysis

Kasstroom

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Kapitaalallocatie

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Individuele abonnees — vanaf §411 extra secties

Lees de volledige analyse — 11 extra secties.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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SCENARIOS FAQ

MDB scenarios questions

  1. Each scenario for MDB (MDB) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

FAQ

MDB — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MDB screens modestly overvalued. The current price is $299 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $275 (range $193–$377), which implies roughly 8.0% downside to the midpoint.

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