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Bull: The mRNA platform's speed and adaptability result in best-in-class efficacy for multiple latent virus and oncology targets.
Pipeline Failure: Late-stage trials for CMV and personalized oncology fail primary endpoints, leaving reliance on a shrinking respiratory market.
Moderna is undergoing a high-risk transition. Following the collapse of its COVID-19 vaccine revenues, it is absorbing multi-billion dollar operating losses as it sustains a massive $3.1B R&D engine. The base case assumes its validated mRNA platform produces sufficient new blockbusters (RSV, CMV, personalized oncology) to return to revenue growth and reach steady-state profitability by the end of the decade.
Moderna is undergoing a high-risk transition. Following the collapse of its COVID-19 vaccine revenues, it is absorbing multi-billion dollar operating losses as it sustains a massive $3.1B R&D engine. The base case assumes its validated mRNA platform produces sufficient new blockbusters (RSV, CMV, personalized oncology) to return to revenue growth and reach steady-state profitability by the end of the decade.
Validated mRNA platform with rapid development cycle
Extensive $3.1B R&D engine driving pipeline velocity
Rapid mRNA adoption across novel therapeutic areas and latent viruses.
Hold. While long-term pipeline optionality exists, near-term cash burn and binary trial risks dictate a cautious approach.
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company's respiratory vaccines include spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, mRESVIA, COVID, RSV, seasonal influenza, combination, and pandemic influenza vaccine; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, and human immunodeficiency virus vaccines; enteric viruses include norovirus; public health vaccines consist of Zika, Nipah, and Mpox vaccines; and bacterial diseases vaccines, such as lyme vaccines. It also provides oncology therapeutics, such as intismeran autogene, cancer antigen therapy, t-cell engager, and cell therapy enhancer; and rare disease products, including propionic and methylmalonic acidemia, and cystic fibrosis. It has strategic alliances and collaborations with Merck & Co., Inc; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; immatics N.V.; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and OpenAI. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Current operating cash flow is deeply negative (-$2.07B FCF trailing). A liquidity stress test indicates the $2.6B cash buffer provides limited runway against the ongoing $3.1B R&D engine. If pipeline revenues delay by 18 months, significant dilutive capital raises become mandatory, destroying per-share value.
Non-COVID pipeline candidates face stiff competition from established incumbents or fail late-stage clinical hurdles. High cash burn depletes the balance sheet, forcing the company to raise dilutive capital at depressed valuations.
Late-stage trials for CMV and personalized oncology fail primary endpoints, leaving reliance on a shrinking respiratory market.
RSV vaccine fails to gain meaningful market share against entrenched incumbents due to lower efficacy or pricing.
De vijf ontwikkelingen die onze beleggingsthese zouden verzwakken.
Accelerated share issuance to fund cash deficits or retain talent severely dilutes existing equity ownership. Excessive per-share dilution erodes future earnings per share recovery and destroys long-term shareholder value during prolonged commercial turnaround periods.
Huidig:Ongoing dilutive pressure with high share-based compensation as of the 2026-05-13 analysis date
Validated mRNA platform with rapid development cycle
Extensive $3.1B R&D engine driving pipeline velocity
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Unavailable
FCF cliff sensitivity is not model-supported in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.
The mRNA platform's speed and adaptability result in best-in-class efficacy for multiple latent virus and oncology targets. MRNA establishes a broad, highly profitable commercial portfolio, driving revenues back toward $10B+ with 70%+ gross margins and substantial operating leverage.
Moderna undergoes a high-risk transition, absorbing multi-billion dollar operating losses to sustain its $3.1B R&D engine. The validated mRNA platform produces sufficient new blockbusters to return to and reach steady-state profitability by the end of the decade.
If RSV guidance exceeds $500M, stock may re-rate towards $58 base case. If guidance cut, path to $41 downside.
If RSV guidance exceeds $500M, stock may re-rate towards $58 base case. If guidance cut, path to $41 downside.
If RSV guidance exceeds $500M, stock may re-rate towards $58 base case. If guidance cut, path to $41 downside.
If RSV guidance exceeds $500M, stock may re-rate towards $58 base case. If guidance cut, path to $41 downside.
Warning level: Diluted share count increases by > 3.0% over any fiscal year. Accelerated share issuance to fund cash deficits or retain talent severely dilutes existing equity ownership. Excessive per-share dilution erodes future earnings per share recovery and destroys long-term shareholder value during prolonged commercial turnaround periods.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Omzet | 1.922.000.000 |
|---|---|
| Kostprijs van de omzet | 868.000.000 |
| Brutowinst | 1.054.000.000 |
| Bedrijfskosten | 4.128.000.000 |
| Bedrijfsresultaat | -3.074.000.000 |
| Niet-operationele posten en belastingen | 252.000.000 |
| Nettowinst | -2.822.000.000 |
| Totale activa | 12.338.000.000 |
|---|---|
| Liquide middelen | 2.595.000.000 |
| Vlottende activa | 6.544.000.000 |
| Totale verplichtingen | 3.688.000.000 |
| Kortlopende verplichtingen | 1.987.000.000 |
| Eigen vermogen | 8.650.000.000 |
Financiële momentopname gebruikt in de analyse van 2026-05-13.
| Periode | Omzet | EBITDA | Nettowinst | Operationele kasstroom | Vrije kasstroom | Investeringen | Afschrijvingen en amortisatie | Aandelenbeloning | Aandeleninkoop | Betaalde dividenden | Netto schuldemissie | Investeringskasstroom | Financieringskasstroom | Beginstand liquide middelen | Eindstand liquide middelen | Kas en beleggingen | Totale schuld | Operationele marge | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC-spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-31 | 17,7 mld. | 13,5 mld. | 12,2 mld. | 13,6 mld. | 13,3 mld. | 284 mln. | 232 mln. | 142 mln. | 857 mln. | — | -140 mln. | — | — | — | — | 6,8 mld. | 916 mln. | 75,0% | — | 4,3% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | 18,9 mld. | 9,8 mld. | 8,4 mld. | 5 mld. | 4,6 mld. | 400 mln. | 348 mln. | 226 mln. | 3,3 mld. | — | -184 mln. | — | — | — | — | 3,2 mld. | 1,2 mld. | 49,9% | — | 8,1% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 6,8 mld. | -3,6 mld. | -4,7 mld. | -3,1 mld. | -3,8 mld. | 707 mln. | 621 mln. | 305 mln. | 1,2 mld. | — | -270 mln. | — | — | — | — | 2,9 mld. | 1,2 mld. | -62,8% | — | 8,0% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 3,2 mld. | -3,4 mld. | -3,6 mld. | -3 mld. | -4,1 mld. | 1,1 mld. | 189 mln. | 429 mln. | 0 | — | -10 mln. | — | — | — | — | 1,9 mld. | 747 mln. | -123,3% | — | 8,6% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 1,9 mld. | -2,5 mld. | -2,8 mld. | -1,9 mld. | -2,1 mld. | 202 mln. | 215 mln. | 483 mln. | — | — | 560 mln. | — | — | — | — | 2,6 mld. | 1,3 mld. | -159,9% | — | 9,5% | — |
MRNA trades at -12.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 20.8x; EV/EBITDA of -7.5x against a peer median of 20.5x; 6 peers.
Heavy reinvestment phase (R&D) leading to structural cash burn before future harvesting.
Rapid mRNA adoption across novel therapeutic areas and latent viruses.
Normalization of respiratory vaccine demand and clinical setbacks in oncology.
Heavy reinvestment phase (R&D) leading to structural cash burn before future harvesting.
Keep sizing minimal due to binary clinical trial risks and high cash burn.
Cut position if cash burn accelerates or critical CMV/oncology trials fail.
Hold.
Fair value sits at $58.30, driven entirely by long-term terminal multiple logic. Near-term cash burn limits upside confidence.
Hold.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Sustained $3B+ R&D burn rate rapidly depletes the $2.6B cash buffer, forcing dilutive equity raises at depressed valuations.
Waarschuwing alsDiluted share count increases by > 3.0% over any fiscal year
Failure to capture adequate commercial penetration against entrenched incumbent vaccines severely restricts near-term revenue diversification. Underperformance leaves the business excessively dependent on shrinking endemic COVID volumes, intensifying top-line pressures and worsening ongoing operating cash deficits.
Huidig:Initial commercial launch phase supporting $1.92B total revenue for the period ended 2025-12-31
Waarschuwing als< 15.0% market share during any respiratory vaccine season
A late-stage trial failure in this pivotal non-respiratory candidate would eliminate a core pipeline growth asset. Disappointing clinical readouts would invalidate platform versatility assumptions beyond standard respiratory targets, forcing severe valuation multiple deratings across clinical stage assets.
Huidig:Ongoing Phase 3 clinical evaluation as of the 2026-05-13 analysis date
Waarschuwing alsFiled clinical trial failure or lack of statistically significant efficacy in Phase 3 CMV readout within any 12-month period
Sustaining heavy research spending without commensurate commercial top-line scale rapidly depletes liquid balance sheet reserves. An uncontained burn rate shortens the corporate runway, forcing disruptive spending rationalization or highly dilutive emergency financings.
Huidig:Revenue was $1.92B with operating loss of $-3.07B for the period ended 2025-12-31
Waarschuwing alsAnnual R&D spend > $4.0B while total annual revenue remains < $3.0B over any fiscal year
Widening bottom-line deficits signal persistent structural unprofitability and deteriorating unit economics across the portfolio. Deepening losses accelerate cash depletion, jeopardizing ongoing clinical trials and forcing aggressive portfolio reprioritization.
Huidig:Net income was $-2.82B for the period ended 2025-12-31
Waarschuwing als< $-2.82B over any trailing twelve-month period
Project revenue, apply a terminal EV/revenue multiple, discount enterprise value, subtract net debt, and divide by diluted shares.
Warning level: < 15.0% market share during any respiratory vaccine season. Failure to capture adequate commercial penetration against entrenched incumbent vaccines severely restricts near-term revenue diversification. Underperformance leaves the business excessively dependent on shrinking endemic COVID volumes, intensifying top-line pressures and worsening ongoing operating cash deficits.
Warning level: Filed clinical trial failure or lack of statistically significant efficacy in Phase 3 CMV readout within any 12-month period. A late-stage trial failure in this pivotal non-respiratory candidate would eliminate a core pipeline growth asset. Disappointing clinical readouts would invalidate platform versatility assumptions beyond standard respiratory targets, forcing severe valuation multiple deratings across clinical stage assets.
Warning level: Annual R&D spend > $4.0B while total annual revenue remains < $3.0B over any fiscal year. Sustaining heavy research spending without commensurate commercial top-line scale rapidly depletes liquid balance sheet reserves. An uncontained burn rate shortens the corporate runway, forcing disruptive spending rationalization or highly dilutive emergency financings.
Warning level: < $-2.82B over any trailing twelve-month period. Widening bottom-line deficits signal persistent structural unprofitability and deteriorating unit economics across the portfolio. Deepening losses accelerate cash depletion, jeopardizing ongoing clinical trials and forcing aggressive portfolio reprioritization.
| Marge |
|---|
| MRNA | Moderna Inc. | $21.1B | -12.8x | 9.5x | -7.5x | — | — |
| VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | 20.8x | 9.3x | 21.8x | 24.2% | 38.1% | |
| REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 13.4x | 5.1x | 15.4x | 14.5% | 20.7% | |
| INCY | Incyte Corporation | 11.0x | 3.7x | 10.2x | 30.8% | 25.6% | |
| TECH | Bio-Techne Corporation | 22.9x | 6.1x | 20.5x | 5.3% | 25.2% | |
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | 22.4x | 12.2x | 25.4x | 107.5% | 49.4% |
