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The opportunity rests on analyst forecast means of $241.08 billion for FY2027 revenue and $155.03 for diluted EPS, not on a proven durable advantage.
FY2027 revenue falls below $101.61 billion, the bottom of the analyst range reported and retrieved on 2026-09-09.
Micron is a Strong Buy at the report-date price of $1,000.26, below Fair value of $1,794.21.3
At the report-date price of $1,000.26, the shares stand below Fair value of $1,794.21, supporting the Strong Buy rating.3
The main risk is FY2027 revenue falling below $101.61 billion, the bottom of the analyst forecast range. That breach would undermine the FY2027 revenue scale supporting the earnings case. Profit, free-cash-flow, and value-per-share assumptions would then need reassessment.
The main opportunity is that FY2027 forecast scale becomes reported profit and cash after investment. All four material business units reported positive operating income in FY2025, so profit was spread across disclosed segments at that date. This breadth at one date does not prove durability. If annual free cash flow rises above FY2025’s $1.67 billion while forecast revenue and diluted EPS hold, the capital program would be generating more cash for shareholders. Potential value is $2,250.58, but Fair value remains the primary conclusion.1456
A favorable phase requires FY2027 revenue near the analyst mean, sustained segment profit, and rising free cash flow after investment. These remain conditional outcomes.14
Strong Buy because the report-date price is below Fair value and the FY2027 forecasts support meaningful upside if cash after investment improves.1
A favorable phase requires FY2027 revenue near the analyst mean, sustained segment profit, and rising free cash flow after investment. These remain conditional outcomes.14
Strong Buy because the report-date price of $1,000.26 is below Fair value of $1,794.21.3
Mobile: Consists of memory and storage products sold into the smartphone and other mobile-device markets, including discrete NAND, DRAM, and managed NAND products. Its Security Committee provides regular updates to the Board of Directors on such reports.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company reorganized its business units. All prior-period segment amounts have been retrospectively adjusted to reflect this reorganization. Micron Technology, Inc. has the following four business units, which are its reportable segments:
The central stress combines weaker sales, missed margins, and poor cash generation. These risks overlap, so their effects should not be added mechanically.
This path is confirmed if FY2027 revenue misses the supplied range floor, margin misses its forecast checkpoint, or annual free cash flow turns negative. It is disconfirmed if revenue, margin, and cash generation hold through FY2027.
De vijf ontwikkelingen die onze beleggingsthese zouden verzwakken.
A revenue miss would weaken the link between forecast sales and the FY2027 EPS estimate. Lower expected profit and cash generation would require reassessing value per share.
Huidig:Analyst mean: $241.08 billion for FY2027, as of and retrieved 2026-09-09 07:08:21 UTC.
Waarschuwing alsBelow $101.61 billion in FY2027 or within 12 months.
Positive FY2025 operating income across the four disclosed material segments shows broad profit generation, but those results alone do not establish a structural moat. The durability of switching costs, integration, distribution, installed-base advantages, or scale barriers remains unproven.
Annual free cash flow must remain positive and rise from FY2025. Higher free cash flow after capital spending would be consistent with stronger cash generation, but it would not prove that spending caused the improvement or that it will persist. Compare reported FY2027 diluted EPS with the analyst adjusted-EPS estimate on a like-for-like diluted-share basis.
All four disclosed material segments produced positive FY2025 operating income. That supports broad profit potential, but it does not establish a durable competitive barrier.6
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($1,794.21). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $9.2B after modeled reinvestment of $27.7B, with terminal value at 56.2% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Fair value requires reported revenue and actual diluted EPS to support their forecast bases, while free cash flow rises above FY2025. A revenue, margin, or cash miss by FY2027 would disconfirm this path.
Sales matter only when profit and cash confirm them.
Earnings remain plausible, but the investment payoff remains unresolved.
Weak sales, margins or cash reduce value per share.
Judge FY2025 profit against free cash flow after capital spending.45
Free cash flow means cash left after capital spending. FY2025 produced $1.67 billion after $15.86 billion of capex, leaving limited evidence that the investment program has completed its payoff.45
Capital spending was a major FY2025 allocation decision at $15.86 billion. Its success should be judged by subsequent operating profit and free cash flow, not spending alone.
FY2025 operating income was $9.77 billion and free cash flow was $1.67 billion. These levels do not establish a return-on-invested-capital trend.
Enterprise cash flows are valued against an 11.2181% weighted average cost of capital. No return-on-invested-capital comparison is stated.
FY2025 operating cash flow was $17.53 billion, capex was $15.86 billion, and free cash flow was $1.67 billion.
Earnings alone will not confirm the thesis unless cash retained after investment also improves.
| Omzet | US$ 37.378.000.000 |
|---|---|
| Kostprijs van de omzet | US$ 22.505.000.000 |
| Brutowinst | US$ 14.873.000.000 |
| Bedrijfskosten | US$ 5.103.000.000 |
| Bedrijfsresultaat | US$ 9.770.000.000 |
| Niet-operationele posten en belastingen | US$ -1.231.000.000 |
| Nettowinst | US$ 8.539.000.000 |
| Totale activa | US$ 82.798.000.000 |
|---|---|
| Liquide middelen | US$ 9.642.000.000 |
| Vlottende activa | US$ 28.841.000.000 |
| Totale verplichtingen | US$ 28.633.000.000 |
| Kortlopende verplichtingen | US$ 11.454.000.000 |
| Eigen vermogen | US$ 54.165.000.000 |
| Nettowinst | US$ 8.539.000.000 |
|---|---|
| Operationele instroom | US$ 17.863.000.000 |
| Afschrijvingen en amortisatie | US$ 8.352.000.000 |
| Aandelenbeloning | US$ 972.000.000 |
| Operationele kasstroom | US$ 17.525.000.000 |
| Operationele uitstroom | US$ 338.000.000 |
| Beschikbare liquide middelen | US$ 24.583.000.000 |
| Beginstand liquide middelen | US$ 7.052.000.000 |
| Wisselkoerseffect | US$ 6.000.000 |
| Investeringsuitstroom | US$ 14.087.000.000 |
| Financieringsuitstroom | US$ 850.000.000 |
| Betaalde dividenden | US$ 522.000.000 |
| Netto schuldaflossing | US$ 189.000.000 |
| Overige financieringsactiviteiten | US$ 139.000.000 |
| Eindstand liquide middelen | US$ 9.646.000.000 |
| Investeringskasstroom | US$ -14.087.000.000 |
| Financieringskasstroom | US$ -850.000.000 |
Bron: SEC EDGAR · Ingediend 2025-10-03 · SEC EDGAR
| Omzet per operationeel segment | Omzet | Aandeel | j-o-j |
|---|---|---|---|
| CMBU | US$ 13,5 mld. | 36,2% | 256,6% |
| MCBU | US$ 11,9 mld. | 31,7% | 1,6% |
| CDBU | US$ 7,2 mld. | 19,3% | 45% |
| AEBU | US$ 4,8 mld. | 12,7% | 2,6% |
| All Other Segments | US$ 13 mln. | 0% | -64,9% |
Bron: SEC EDGAR · Ingediend 2025-10-03 · SEC EDGAR
| Omzet per regio | Omzet | Aandeel | j-o-j |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | US$ 24,1 mld. | 64,5% | 83,1% |
| Taiwan | US$ 5,7 mld. | 15,2% | 20,5% |
| China | US$ 2,6 mld. | 7,1% | -13,3% |
| Other Asia Pacific | US$ 1,9 mld. | 5,1% | 43,8% |
| Hong Kong SAR China | US$ 1,1 mld. | 3% | 6,3% |
| Japan | US$ 895 mln. | 2,4% | 6,5% |
| Europe | US$ 625 mln. | 1,7% | -23,6% |
| Other | US$ 383 mln. | 1% | 192,4% |
Financiële momentopname gebruikt in de analyse van 2026-09-09.
| Periode | Omzet | EBITDA | Nettowinst | Operationele kasstroom | Vrije kasstroom | Investeringen | Afschrijvingen en amortisatie | Aandelenbeloning | Aandeleninkoop | Betaalde dividenden | Netto schuldemissie | Investeringskasstroom | Financieringskasstroom | Beginstand liquide middelen | Eindstand liquide middelen | Kas en beleggingen | Totale schuld | Operationele marge | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC-spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-08-31 | US$ 20,3 mld. | US$ 9,7 mld. | US$ 5,1 mld. | US$ 8,2 mld. | US$ 3,4 mld. | US$ 4,7 mld. | US$ 3,9 mld. | US$ 215 mln. | US$ 36 mln. | US$ 0 | — | -US$ 7,5 mld. | US$ 349 mln. | US$ 4,3 mld. | US$ 5,2 mld. | US$ 5,4 mld. | US$ 11,2 mld. | 28,9% | — | 6,7% | — |
| 2018-08-30 | US$ 30,4 mld. | US$ 19,7 mld. | US$ 14,1 mld. | US$ 17,4 mld. | US$ 8,5 mld. | US$ 8,9 mld. | US$ 4,8 mld. | US$ 198 mln. | US$ 71 mln. | US$ 0 | — | -US$ 8,2 mld. | -US$ 7,8 mld. | US$ 5,2 mld. | US$ 6,6 mld. | US$ 6,8 mld. | US$ 4,6 mld. | 49,3% | — | 8,7% | — |
| 2019-08-29 | US$ 23,4 mld. | US$ 12,8 mld. | US$ 6,3 mld. | US$ 13,2 mld. | US$ 3,4 mld. | US$ 9,8 mld. | US$ 5,4 mld. | US$ 243 mln. | US$ 2,7 mld. | US$ 179 mln. | — | -US$ 10,1 mld. | -US$ 2,4 mld. | US$ 6,6 mld. | US$ 7,3 mld. | US$ 8 mld. | US$ 5,9 mld. | 31,5% | — | 8,0% | — |
| 2020-09-03 | US$ 21,4 mld. | US$ 8,7 mld. | US$ 2,7 mld. | US$ 8,3 mld. | US$ 83 mln. | US$ 8,2 mld. | US$ 5,7 mld. | US$ 328 mln. | US$ 176 mln. | US$ 0 | — | -US$ 7,6 mld. | -US$ 317 mln. | US$ 7,3 mld. | US$ 7,7 mld. | US$ 8,1 mld. | US$ 6,2 mld. | 14,0% | — | 5,7% | — |
| 2021-09-02 | US$ 27,7 mld. | US$ 12,9 mld. | US$ 5,9 mld. | US$ 12,5 mld. | US$ 2,4 mld. | US$ 10 mld. | US$ 6,2 mld. | US$ 378 mln. | US$ 1,2 mld. | US$ 0 | — | -US$ 10,6 mld. | -US$ 1,8 mld. | US$ 7,7 mld. | US$ 7,8 mld. | US$ 8,6 mld. | US$ 6 mld. | 22,7% | — | 6,5% | — |
| 2022-09-01 | US$ 30,8 mld. | US$ 16,7 mld. | US$ 8,7 mld. | US$ 15,2 mld. | US$ 3,1 mld. | US$ 12,1 mld. | US$ 7,1 mld. | US$ 514 mln. | US$ 2,4 mld. | US$ 461 mln. | -US$ 32 mln. | -US$ 11,6 mld. | -US$ 3 mld. | US$ 7,8 mld. | US$ 8,3 mld. | US$ 9,3 mld. | US$ 6 mld. | 31,5% | — | 8,4% | — |
| 2023-08-31 | US$ 15,5 mld. | US$ 2,2 mld. | -US$ 5,8 mld. | US$ 1,6 mld. | -US$ 6,1 mld. | US$ 7,7 mld. | US$ 7,8 mld. | US$ 596 mln. | US$ 425 mln. | US$ 504 mln. | US$ 6 mld. | -US$ 6,2 mld. | US$ 5 mld. | US$ 8,3 mld. | US$ 8,7 mld. | US$ 9,6 mld. | US$ 12 mld. | -37,0% | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-29 | US$ 25,1 mld. | US$ 8,9 mld. | US$ 778 mln. | US$ 8,5 mld. | US$ 121 mln. | US$ 8,4 mld. | US$ 7,8 mld. | US$ 833 mln. | US$ 300 mln. | US$ 513 mln. | -US$ 898 mln. | -US$ 8,3 mld. | -US$ 1,8 mld. | US$ 8,7 mld. | US$ 7,1 mld. | US$ 8,1 mld. | US$ 11,3 mld. | 5,2% | — | 8,9% | — |
| 2025-08-28 | US$ 37,4 mld. | US$ 18,5 mld. | US$ 8,5 mld. | US$ 17,5 mld. | US$ 1,7 mld. | US$ 15,9 mld. | US$ 8,4 mld. | US$ 972 mln. | US$ 0 | US$ 522 mln. | -US$ 189 mln. | -US$ 14,1 mld. | -US$ 850 mln. | US$ 7,1 mld. | US$ 9,6 mld. | US$ 10,3 mld. | US$ 11,5 mld. | 26,1% | — | 10,8% | — |
Micron Technology Inc. (MU) trades at 6.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 25.8x. Its EV/EBITDA of 16.3x compares with a peer median of 52.1x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Broadcom Inc., Marvell Technology Inc. and ON Semiconductor Corporation, as of 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-09.
FY2025 capex was $15.86 billion. Industry references were 4.4% of revenue and 1.27 times depreciation as of 2026-09-01.5
A favorable phase requires FY2027 revenue near the analyst mean and continued profit across the four material segments. Annual free cash flow must remain positive and rise from FY2025 after capital spending. That outcome would be consistent with stronger cash generation, but it would not prove that spending caused the improvement or that it will persist.
The FY2027 analyst revenue estimate spans $101.61 billion to $290.09 billion, with a $241.08 billion mean as of and retrieved 2026-09-09 07:08:21 UTC. Softer sales with sustained capital spending would leave less cash after investment.
FY2025 revenue was attributed to the United States, China, Taiwan, and other regions. This attribution does not establish end-demand, manufacturing, trade, or supply-chain effects.6
Use a starter allocation; wide FY2027 forecast ranges support staged additions.1
Add only if FY2027 revenue exceeds $112.13 billion, annual free cash flow is positive, and FY2027 provider-adjusted EBIT margin exceeds 38.44% of revenue. Pause additions below $101.61 billion revenue, with negative annual free cash flow, below 38.44% FY2027 provider-adjusted EBIT margin, or above 20% largest-customer share within 24 months.
Fair value remains above the report-date price, while staged buying can limit exposure to forecast uncertainty.3
The FY2027 revenue and EPS forecasts support substantial profit potential if realized.1
Use a smaller first purchase and require positive free cash flow before adding.4
The Strong Buy view supports staged buying because the report-date price is below Fair value. Future additions depend on the stated FY2027 revenue, margin, annual free-cash-flow, and customer checkpoints.3
The rating depends on forecast sales producing durable profit and positive free cash flow after investment.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Annual free cash flow below zero despite positive earnings shows that investment needs are consuming cash and reducing value supported by operations.
Largest-customer share above 20% raises bargaining and purchase-cut risk, shortening the period that elevated earnings may endure.
If FY2027 provider-adjusted operating margin falls below 38.44%, each dollar of revenue would produce less operating profit than the forecast path assumes. That would weaken forecast earnings and the value supported by those earnings.
Huidig:FY2026 provider-adjusted forecast level: 38.44%.
Waarschuwing alsFY2027 provider-adjusted operating margin below 38.44% within 12 months.
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings would show that investment spending exceeded operating cash generation. That would reduce the value supported by cash generation and delay the benefit to shareholders.
Huidig:FY2025 free cash flow: $1.67 billion, as of and retrieved 2026-08-30 10:04:51 UTC.
Waarschuwing alsBelow $0 within 12 months despite positive reported earnings.
A higher revenue share from one customer would make Micron’s sales and profit more sensitive to that customer’s purchasing decisions. A purchase reduction could lower revenue and operating profit, shortening the period of elevated earnings.
Huidig:17% of FY2025 revenue; one observation does not establish a concentration trend.
Waarschuwing alsAbove 20% within 24 months beginning 2026-09-09.
A lower FY2027 EPS forecast would reduce the future earnings used by the forward-earnings valuation, lowering the value it supports per share.
Huidig:Analyst mean: $155.03 for FY2027, as of and retrieved 2026-09-09 07:08:21 UTC.
Waarschuwing alsAnalyst mean below $106.89 before FY2027 results.
| Forecast margin failure | high | Through FY2027 | Compare FY2027 actual operating margin with the forecast only after reconciling it to the same provider-adjusted basis. A result below 38.44% on that basis requires lower profit assumptions. |
Under the moderate discount rate, US$ 991 comes from forecast-period earnings and US$ 915 from the long-term value, totaling US$ 1.906.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 64% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Potential value requires FY2027 adjusted earnings to hold and annual free cash flow to rise from FY2025. This path fades if sales or cash after investment weakens.4
Tests value per share.1
Tests the investment payoff.4
Can absorb operating cash.5
Higher dependence raises repricing risk.6
| FY2035 |
|---|
| Revenue | $112.13B | $112.13B | $115.50B | $118.96B | $122.53B | $126.21B | $129.99B | $133.89B | $137.91B | $142.05B |
| Revenue growth | 200.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Operating margin | 38.4% | 50.7% | 63.1% | 75.4% | 87.6% | 87.6% | 87.6% | 87.6% | 87.6% | 87.6% |
| Operating income | $43.11B | $56.90B | $72.82B | $89.64B | $107.40B | $110.63B | $113.95B | $117.36B | $120.88B | $124.51B |
| Tax rate | 14.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% |
| NOPAT | $36.87B | $48.67B | $62.29B | $76.68B | $91.87B | $94.63B | $97.47B | $100.39B | $103.40B | $106.51B |
| Reinvestment | $27.69B | $29.40B | $28.46B | $23.76B | $26.96B | $26.21B | $25.40B | $24.52B | $23.56B | $22.52B |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 75.1% | 60.4% | 45.7% | 31.0% | 29.3% | 27.7% | 26.1% | 24.4% | 22.8% | 21.1% |
| Depreciation and amortization | $25.06B | $25.06B | $25.81B | $26.58B | $27.38B | $28.20B | $29.05B | $29.92B | $30.82B | $31.74B |
| Free cash flow to firm | $9.18B | $19.28B | $33.83B | $52.92B | $64.92B | $68.42B | $72.07B | $75.87B | $79.85B | $83.99B |
| Cmbu revenue | $40.57B | $40.57B | $41.79B | $43.04B | $44.33B | $45.66B | $47.03B | $48.44B | $49.90B | $51.39B |
| Mcbu revenue | $35.58B | $35.58B | $36.65B | $37.75B | $38.88B | $40.05B | $41.25B | $42.48B | $43.76B | $45.07B |
| Cdbu revenue | $21.69B | $21.69B | $22.34B | $23.01B | $23.70B | $24.41B | $25.14B | $25.90B | $26.67B | $27.47B |
| Aebu revenue | $14.26B | $14.26B | $14.69B | $15.13B | $15.59B | $16.05B | $16.54B | $17.03B | $17.54B | $18.07B |
| All Other Segments revenue | $33.64M | $33.64M | $34.65M | $35.69M | $36.76M | $37.86M | $39.00M | $40.17M | $41.37M | $42.61M |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
FY2025 GAAP operating income was $9.77 billion on $37.38 billion of revenue. The industry operating-margin reference was 35.3%.
Future sales must produce the forecast operating profit before the margin path deserves full weight.
| Marge |
|---|
| MU | Micron Technology Inc. | $1.15T | 6.2x | 12.5x | 16.3x | 66.6% | — |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Inc. | 32.6x | 20.0x | 80.6x | 10.2% | 17.2% | |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | 19.0x | 19.7x | 34.4x | 44.2% | 54.3% | |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology Inc. | 33.5x | 21.4x | 69.8x | 16.5% | 16.7% | |
| ON | ON Semiconductor Corporation | 15.7x | 4.5x | 13.7x | 8.3% | 19.5% |
