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NEM trades against a final fair-value range of $134.25-$241.74, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $134, high $242, with mid-point at $181.
Stock analysis

NEM fair value $134–$242

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Geanalyseerd: 2026-05-10Volgende update: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Cyclical
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Koers
$116.51
▲ +64.69 (+55.52%)
Fair value
$181
$134–$242
Beoordeling
Sterk kopen
confidence 88/100
Opwaarts potentieel
+55.5%
upside to fair value
Veiligheidsmarge
$154.02
MoS level · 15%
Marktkapitalisatie
$124.4B
P/E fwd 10.3
Engelse bronNL
Engelse bron wordt weergegeven terwijl we vertalen
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§1 Samenvatting

  • Composite fair value $181 with high case $242.
  • Implied upside of 55.5% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 88/100 · Cyclical.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$181
Margin of safety
+35.7%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$116.51Price
Low $134.25
Mid $181.2
High $241.74

NEM trades against a final fair-value range of $134.25-$241.74, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Scale advantages in tier-one gold
    Scale advantages in tier-one gold jurisdictions.
  • Diversified global portfolio limits single-asset
    Diversified global portfolio limits single-asset risk.
  • Cycle upside
    Current environment features peak margins driven by strong cyclical commodity pricing and heightened global macroeconomic uncertainty.

§2 Berenscenario

A rapid normalization of gold prices back to historical averages combined with sticky operational costs will severely compress margins. Free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. could turn negative if capital expendituresCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). remain elevated to maintain production profiles amid declining ore grades.

Hoe deze these kan breken

Gold Price Collapse

· Medium

Macroeconomic shift drives gold prices down significantly, wiping out the current peak margin profile.

FV impact
-30% to -40%
Trigger
12-24 months

Severe Cost Inflation

· Low

Labor strikes and energy price spikes drive all-in sustaining costs above realized gold prices.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
6-12 months

Geopolitical Expropriation

· Low

Key international assets face nationalization or prohibitive royalty increases, stripping significant production volume.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
Unpredictable
Vroege waarschuwingssignalen om te volgen
MetriekHuidigTrigger-drempel
Sequential quarterly declines in realized gold prices.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
AISC rising faster than baseline inflation.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Downward revisions to annual production guidance.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unexpected increases in sustaining capital expenditures.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deteriorating political stability in key operating regions.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Financiële historie

Winst-en-verliesrekening — laatste zes perioden
PostT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Periode2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Omzet$11.92B$11.81B$18.68B$22.67B+23.9%
Brutowinst$3.26B$3.01B$7.14B$12.06B+54.6%
Bedrijfsresultaat$1.61B$708.0M$5.91B$11.02B+90.1%
Nettowinst$-429.0M$-2.49B$3.35B$7.09B—
WPA (verwaterd)$-0.54$-2.94$2.92$6.39—
EBITDA$2.36B$320.0M$7.53B$14.09B+81.4%
R&D$229.0M$200.0M$197.0M$166.0M-10.2%
VAA$276.0M$299.0M$442.0M$382.0M+11.4%

Kwaliteitsscores

Piotroski F-score
9 / 9
0–9 kwaliteitscomposiet
Altman Z-score
4.54
Faillissementsrisico (>3 veilig)
Beneish M-score
-2.71
Risico op winstmanipulatie
OCF / Nettowinst
1.46×
>1 wijst op hoge winstkwaliteit
Drempel boekhoudkwaliteit
Pass
Sector-aangepaste drempel
ROIC
23.2%
Rendement op geïnvesteerd kapitaal
Sectie 3

Numbers analysis

Kasstroom

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Kapitaalallocatie

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Individuele abonnees — vanaf §411 extra secties

Lees de volledige analyse — 11 extra secties.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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SCENARIOS FAQ

NEM scenarios questions

  1. Each scenario for NEM (NEM) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

FAQ

NEM — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NEM looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $117 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $181 (range $134–$242), which implies roughly 55.5% upside to the midpoint.

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Same archetype: cyclical