Is PepsiCo, Inc. overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-21, PEP trades close to fair value. The price recorded at analysis is USD 130 versus our fair value of USD 129; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 169. That implies roughly 0.7% downside to fair value at that date.

What is PEP's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-21, gives PEP a fair value of USD 129 and a potential value of USD 169. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for PepsiCo, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy PEP now?

Our latest published rating for PEP, analyzed 2026-09-21, is Hold. PepsiCo, Inc. trades close to fair value at the analysis-date price of USD 130 versus fair value of USD 129; potential value is USD 169. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for PEP?

The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-21 documents PepsiCo, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.

What is PEP's rating?

Our latest published rating for PEP, analyzed 2026-09-21, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of USD 129, the potential value of USD 169, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 130).

What archetype is PEP?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-09-21, PepsiCo, Inc. is classified as a mature-dividend stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for PEP.

PEP stock analysis | StockMarketAgent.AI

StockMarketAgent researchGeanalyseerd 2026-09-21

PepsiCo, Inc.

PEP

Aanhouden

Redelijk gewaardeerd · 0,7% van de reële waarde

Report-date price

US$ 129,62

Recorded 2026-09-21

Fair value

US$ 128,71

Potentiële waarde

US$ 168,61

Bovengrens van de waardering

Concurrentievoordeel

Wide9 / 10

Engelse bronNL

Engelse bron wordt weergegeven terwijl we vertalen

Dit rapport is nog niet vertaald. Vernieuw over een paar minuten zodra de vertaalwachtrij is bijgewerkt.

§1 SamenvattingEN

Antwoord in 30 secondenHold

Koers versus waarde

Koers: $129.62
Reële waarde: $128.71
Potentiële waarde: $168.61
Per: 2026-09-21

Waarom het kan werken

Accelerated away-from-home execution recovery combined with mixing center logistics automation restores North American beverage operating margins toward 5.0%, while international volume growth compounds above 7% to unlock Potential value of $168.61 per share.

Wat onze visie zou veranderen

Severe promotional discounting and persistent wage and freight inflation compress consolidated operating margin below 11.5%.

We maintain a Hold rating on PepsiCo Inc. as the shares trade at $129.62 as of September 21, 2026, essentially in line with our Fair value of $128.71 per share.⁴

We rate PepsiCo as a Hold. For an everyday investor, this means existing shareholders should keep their shares, but new investors should wait for a wider margin of safety before putting fresh money to work.

On September 21, 2026, the report was prepared with PepsiCo shares priced at $129.62. That price sits right at our Fair value estimate of $128.71 per share, representing -0.7% upside. If operational improvements accelerate, Potential value reaches $168.61 per share, offering 30.1% upside.

§2 BerenscenarioEN

In a severe compounding downturn, private label savory snack substitution in North America reduces organic volumes, while ongoing price-pack investments fail to restore unit growth. Operating margins compress toward 11.5% as commercial partner arrangements drag beverage profitability. Concurrently, higher refinancing rates on $53,213,999,104 of total debt expand WACC past 7.45%, driving fair value toward the downside boundary of $101.11.

Bear scenario

Bear

Probability

20%

Return

-22.0%

Path target

$101.11

Domestic consumers persistently substitute branded snacks with private label alternatives
Supply chain and commercial partner friction permanently compress beverage operating margins
Higher borrowing costs increase interest expense and cost of capital

The Bear scenario models a downside outcome resulting from prolonged consumer trade-down in domestic snacks, persistent wage and freight inflation, and higher corporate refinancing costs. Under this conditional path, operating margins contract below historical norms as promotional price-pack adjustments fail to generate volume elasticity, while beverage partner arrangements continue to compress gross margins. Disconfirmation would occur if North American snacks regain volume share without additional discounting.

Hoe deze these kan breken

Severe promotional discounting and persistent wage and freight inflation across North American supply chains compress consolidated operating margin below 11.5%

FY2025 consolidated operating margin was 12.24%. Continued affordability investments and commercial partner margin drag risk driving operating margin down by 300 bps below historical norms.^5,7

FV impact

-7.3%

Operating margin 3 points lower throughout

Trigger

Within 12 months

Vroege waarschuwingssignalen om te volgen

De vijf ontwikkelingen die onze beleggingsthese zouden verzwakken.

operating_margin

Operating margin declining below 11.50% indicates persistent promotional discounting and structural cost inflation exceeding price realization.

Huidig:12.24% in FY2025

Waarschuwing als< 11.50%

revenue_growth

§3 ConcurrentievoordeelEN

Wide

PepsiCo possesses a Wide economic moat underpinned by durable structural intangible assets and cost advantages stemming from its global Direct-Store-Delivery (DSD) network and commanding retail shelf presence. The company generated $50,859M in gross profit at a 54.15% gross margin on $93,925M in revenue in FY2025, led by PepsiCo Foods North America delivering $6,173M in operating income at a 22.42% margin. This structural pricing power and category leadership across savory snacks defend high returns on capital against branded peers.

The company's scale advantage is reinforced by an integrated DSD distribution logistics network that provides unmatched route density across grocery, mass merchandise, and convenience retail channels. By deploying combined mixing centers that co-locate food and beverage inventories, PepsiCo optimizes customer delivery fulfillment while reducing supply chain overhead. This logistical barrier to entry cannot be easily replicated by standalone competitors, preserving operating cash flow resilience across macroeconomic cycles.

Economische winst

ROIC of 16.56% substantially exceeds the company's cost of capital (WACC of 6.45%), generating sustainable economic value supported by $12,087M in operating cash flow in FY2025.^2,7

9/ 10

Wide

Sources of advantage

Brand Equity and Retail Shelf DominancePepsiCo defended a 54.15% gross margin with $50,859M gross profit on $93,925M net revenue in FY2025, driven by PepsiCo Foods North America generating $6,173M in operating profit at a 22.42% operating margin.Wide
Direct-Store-Delivery Route Density and Supply Chain Scale

Bekende bedreigingen voor het concurrentievoordeel
Bedreiging	Ernst	Tijdlijn	Beperking
Private label displacement in savory snacks	medium	12-24 months	Accelerated brand-building R&D, package size differentiation, and targeted price-pack architecture.⁵
Geopolitical disruption and emerging market currency

§5 Gevoeligheid

Disconteringsvoet

Terminale groei

	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.5%	$159.72	$178.02	$204.48	$246.34	$323.57
5.5%	$132.18	$142.18	$155.26	$173.13	$199.04
6.5%	$114.75	$120.99	$128.71	$138.50	$151.34
7.4%	$102.40	$106.60	$111.61	$117.68	$125.19
8.4%	$93.28	$96.28	$99.77	$103.86	$108.75

Rijen: disconteringsvoet (Ke voor winst; WACC voor kasstroom). Kolommen: terminale groei.

Verandering in duur (jaren)

None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.

Sensitivity reference

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($128.71). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

FCF-klif

Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $8.5B after modeled reinvestment of $1.5B, with terminal value at 83.1% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.

§7 Beslissingsboom voor winstenEN

Overtroffen

Upgrade to Buy; Re-examine margin expansion sustainability across North American beverages, verify positive volume share gains in savory snacks, and consider expanding portfolio allocation toward the upper band of positioning guidelines.

Trigger: Consolidated organic revenue growth accelerating above historical trend alongside North American beverage operating margin recovery toward peer levels.

An earnings beat driven by volume growth rather than promotional discounting indicates pricing elasticity has stabilized and that investments in away-from-home channels and mixing centers are delivering operating leverage toward $168.61.

Conform

Maintain Hold; Maintain position weighting while monitoring consumer price elasticity in domestic channels and tracking quarterly free cash flow generation against dividend coverage commitments.

Trigger: Organic revenue growth and operating margins meeting consensus expectations, with international momentum offsetting moderate North American snack price sensitivity.

Performance tracking guidance confirms the earnings power of the core franchise, keeping intrinsic valuation aligned with $128.71 at $129.62.

Gemist

Downgrade to Reduce; Reassess the competitive moat in North American snacks, evaluate whether supply chain bottlenecks have become permanent, and trim exposure if volume declines persist across consecutive quarters.

Trigger: Accelerating private label trade-down in North American savory snacks, failure of beverage margins to improve, or rising debt service costs pressuring net earnings.

A material earnings miss resulting from persistent promotional discounting and ongoing commercial partner margin drag would indicate structural moat erosion and necessitate a downward revision in Fair value.

Winstkwaliteit

PepsiCo maintains high earnings quality characterized by steady operating cash conversion, disciplined working capital management, and consistent accrual accounting practices. Cash flow from operations reliably mirrors reported net income, with capital spending disciplined against depreciation schedules.

Te volgen metrieken vóór publicatie

Metriek:
North American Beverage Operating Margin Recovery
HuidigOperating profitability reflects recent commercial contract friction and price-pack investments across retail distribution channels.
Waarom het ertoe doet
Operating margin recovery in North American beverages demonstrates whether commercial arrangement friction is transitory or structurally dilutive to segment profitability.
Metriek:
Frito-Lay North America Volume and Market Share
Huidig

§8 Financiële historie

Winst-en-verliesrekening — laatste zes perioden
Period	2021-12-25	2022-12-31	2023-12-30	2024-12-28	2025-12-27	Trend
Revenue	$79.47B	$86.39B	$91.47B	$91.85B	$93.93B	+4.3%
Gross profit	$42.40B	$45.82B	$49.59B	$50.11B	$50.86B	+4.7%
Operating income	$11.16B	$11.51B	$11.99B	$12.89B	$11.50B	+0.7%
Net income	$7.62B	$8.91B	$9.07B	$9.58B	$8.24B	+2.0%
EPS (diluted)	$5.49	$6.42	$6.56	$6.95	$6.00	+2.2%
EBITDA	$14.90B	$14.92B	$15.75B	$16.68B	$15.54B	+1.1%
R&D	$752.0M	$771.0M	$804.0M	$813.0M	$839.0M	+2.8%
SG&A	$31.24B	$34.46B	$36.68B	$37.19B	$37.37B	+4.6%

Geaccepteerde jaarprognose
Metriek	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Revenue	$98.95B	$101.92B

Kasstroom

PepsiCo demonstrates strong cash conversion, generating $12,087M in operating cash flow and $7,672M in free cash flow in FY2025 after funding $4,415M in capital expenditures. Operating cash flow comfortably funds maintenance and growth investments, with steady working capital management maintaining cash flow durability across quarterly cycles.^6,7

Kapitaalallocatie

Capital allocation prioritizes organic reinvestment and shareholder distributions. In FY2025, capital expenditures of $4,415M represented 4.70% of , focused on mixing center automation and fleet modernizations. of $8,240M supports a dividend of $5.92 per share with an established 75.3% , while share repurchases gently reduced from 1,383M in FY2023 to 1,373M in FY2025.

ROIC

The company generates substantial economic profits across market cycles, anchored by high-return snack manufacturing in North America and asset-light international franchise bottling operations.

ROIC of 16.56% exceeds the verified WACC of 6.45% by 1,011 bps.

North American snack profitability underpins corporate cash generation

PepsiCo Foods North America delivered $6,173M in operating profit at a 22.42% margin on $27,528M in revenue in FY2025, accounting for 53.7% of total segment operating income.

The savory snack franchise provides defensive pricing power and cash flow resilience that subsidizes North American beverage margin recovery.

International franchise model delivers superior capital efficiency

The International Beverage Franchise segment generated $1,769M in on $4,997M in FY2025, achieving an industry-leading 35.40% .

Meest recente omzetUS$ 93,9 mld.Omzet-CAGR +4,6%

Operationele marge12,2%10 boekjaarperioden

Meest recente vrije kasstroomUS$ 7,7 mld.FY2025

NettoschuldUS$ 36,8 mld.FY2025

Uitsplitsing van de resultatenrekeningHoe bedrijfsschaal wordt omgezet in gerapporteerde winst.30 jun 2026

StockMarketAgent.AI

Financiële historische gegevens
Omzet	US$ 24.181.000.000
Kostprijs van de omzet	US$ 11.070.000.000
Brutowinst	US$ 13.111.000.000
Bedrijfskosten	US$ 9.088.000.000
Bedrijfsresultaat	US$ 4.023.000.000
Niet-operationele posten en belastingen	US$ -1.019.000.000
Nettowinst	US$ 3.004.000.000

Momentopname van de balansHoe de gerapporteerde activa in de geselecteerde periode worden aangehouden en gefinancierd.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Gegevens van de balansuitsplitsing
Totale activa	US$ 107.399.000.000
Liquide middelen	US$ 9.159.000.000
Vlottende activa	US$ 27.949.000.000
Totale verplichtingen	US$ 86.852.000.000
Kortlopende verplichtingen	US$ 32.764.000.000
Eigen vermogen	US$ 20.547.000.000

KasstroombrugHoe operationele kasstroom in FY2025 vrije kasstroom werd.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Aansluiting operationele kasstroom

NettowinstUS$ 8,2 mld.Afschrijvingen en amortisatie+US$ 3,5 mld.Aandelenbeloning+US$ 288 mln.Overige operationele aanpassingen+US$ 108 mln.Operationele kasstroomUS$ 12,1 mld.

Aansluiting begin- en eindstand liquide middelen

Beginstand liquide middelenUS$ 8,6 mld.Operationele kasstroom+US$ 12,1 mld.Investeringskasstroom−US$ 6,9 mld.Financieringskasstroom−US$ 5 mld.Wisselkoerseffect+US$ 422 mln.Eindstand liquide middelenUS$ 9,2 mld.

US$ 12,1 mld. − US$ 4,4 mld.Vrije kasstroom US$ 7,7 mld.

Gegevens van de kasstroombrug
Nettowinst	US$ 8.240.000.000
Operationele instroom	US$ 12.087.000.000
Afschrijvingen en amortisatie	US$ 3.451.000.000
Aandelenbeloning	US$ 288.000.000
Overige operationele aanpassingen	US$ 108.000.000
Operationele kasstroom	US$ 12.087.000.000
Beschikbare liquide middelen	US$ 21.062.000.000
Beginstand liquide middelen	US$ 8.553.000.000
Wisselkoerseffect	US$ 422.000.000
Investeringsuitstroom	US$ 6.879.000.000
Investeringen	US$ 4.415.000.000
Overige investeringsactiviteiten	US$ 2.464.000.000
Financieringsuitstroom	US$ 4.979.000.000
Netto schuldemissie	US$ 3.748.000.000
Aandeleninkoop	US$ 1.000.000.000
Betaalde dividenden	US$ 7.638.000.000
Overige financieringsactiviteiten	US$ 89.000.000
Eindstand liquide middelen	US$ 9.204.000.000
Investeringskasstroom	US$ -6.879.000.000
Financieringskasstroom	US$ -4.979.000.000

Omzet per operationeel segmentAandeel in de totale omzet voor 2025-12-27.

Omzet per operationeel segmentAandeel

Pepsi Co Beverages North AmericaUS$ 28,2 mld.30%+1,5% j-o-j

Pepsi Co Foods North AmericaUS$ 27,5 mld.29,3%+0,4% j-o-j

Europe Middle East AfricaUS$ 18 mld.19,2%+8,2% j-o-j

Latin America FoodsUS$ 10,5 mld.11,2%−0,2% j-o-j

International Beverage FranchiseUS$ 5 mld.5,3%+2,4% j-o-j

Asia Pacific FoodsUS$ 4,6 mld.4,9%+1,8% j-o-j

Bron: SEC EDGAR · Ingediend 2026-02-03 · SEC EDGAR

Gegevens over de omzetmix: Omzet per operationeel segment
Omzet per operationeel segment	Omzet	Aandeel	j-o-j
Pepsi Co Beverages North America	US$ 28,2 mld.	30%	1,5%
Pepsi Co Foods North America	US$ 27,5 mld.	29,3%	0,4%
Europe Middle East Africa	US$ 18 mld.	19,2%	8,2%
Latin America Foods	US$ 10,5 mld.	11,2%	-0,2%
International Beverage Franchise	US$ 5 mld.	5,3%	2,4%
Asia Pacific Foods	US$ 4,6 mld.	4,9%	1,8%

Omzet per regioAandeel in de totale omzet voor 2025-12-27.

Omzet per regioAandeel

United StatesUS$ 52,2 mld.55,6%+1,1% j-o-j

All OtherUS$ 17,9 mld.19,1%+5,4% j-o-j

MexicoUS$ 6,9 mld.7,4%−2,5% j-o-j

RussiaUS$ 4,8 mld.5,1%+22,9% j-o-j

CanadaUS$ 3,7 mld.4%−0,9% j-o-j

ChinaUS$ 2,6 mld.2,8%−3,2% j-o-j

OverigUS$ 5,7 mld.6,1%+0,1% j-o-j

Bron: SEC EDGAR · Ingediend 2026-02-03 · SEC EDGAR

Gegevens over de omzetmix: Omzet per regio
Omzet per regio	Omzet	Aandeel	j-o-j
United States	US$ 52,2 mld.	55,6%	1,1%
All Other	US$ 17,9 mld.	19,1%	5,4%
Mexico	US$ 6,9 mld.	7,4%	-2,5%
Russia	US$ 4,8 mld.	5,1%	22,9%
Canada	US$ 3,7 mld.	4%	-0,9%
China	US$ 2,6 mld.	2,8%	-3,2%
United Kingdom	US$ 2,1 mld.	2,3%	3,8%
Brazil	US$ 1,8 mld.	1,9%	1%
South Africa	US$ 1,8 mld.	1,9%	-4,9%

Omzet en winstHoe bedrijfsschaal wordt omgezet in gerapporteerde winst.

Kas en schuldBeschikbare liquiditeit tegenover de totale schuld.

KasstroomgeneratieOperationele kasstroom vergeleken met vrije kasstroom.

WinstgevendheidOntwikkeling van bruto-, operationele en nettomarge.

Financiële momentopname gebruikt in de analyse van 2026-09-21.

Financiële historische gegevens
Periode	Omzet	EBITDA	Nettowinst	Operationele kasstroom	Vrije kasstroom	Investeringen	Afschrijvingen en amortisatie	Aandelenbeloning	Aandeleninkoop	Betaalde dividenden	Netto schuldemissie	Investeringskasstroom	Financieringskasstroom	Beginstand liquide middelen	Eindstand liquide middelen	Kas en beleggingen	Totale schuld	Operationele marge	ROIC	WACC	ROIC−WACC-spread
2016-12-31	US$ 62,8 mld.	US$ 12,3 mld.	US$ 6,3 mld.	US$ 10,7 mld.	US$ 7,6 mld.	US$ 3 mld.	US$ 2,4 mld.	US$ 284 mln.	US$ 3 mld.	US$ 4,2 mld.	—	-US$ 7,2 mld.	-US$ 3,2 mld.	—	US$ 9,2 mld.	US$ 16,1 mld.	US$ 34,5 mld.	15,6%	—	4,4%	—
2017-12-30	US$ 63,5 mld.	US$ 13,1 mld.	US$ 4,9 mld.	US$ 10 mld.	US$ 7,1 mld.	US$ 3 mld.	US$ 2,4 mld.	US$ 292 mln.	US$ 2 mld.	US$ 4,5 mld.	—	-US$ 4,4 mld.	-US$ 4,2 mld.	US$ 9,2 mld.	US$ 10,7 mld.	US$ 19,5 mld.	US$ 37,8 mld.	16,2%	—	4,3%	—
2018-12-29	US$ 64,7 mld.	US$ 12,8 mld.	US$ 12,5 mld.	US$ 9,4 mld.	US$ 6,1 mld.	US$ 3,3 mld.	US$ 2,4 mld.	US$ 256 mln.	US$ 2 mld.	US$ 4,9 mld.	—	US$ 4,6 mld.	-US$ 13,8 mld.	US$ 10,7 mld.	US$ 10,8 mld.	US$ 9 mld.	US$ 32,2 mld.	15,6%	—	4,9%	—
2019-12-28	US$ 67,2 mld.	US$ 13,1 mld.	US$ 7,3 mld.	US$ 9,6 mld.	US$ 5,4 mld.	US$ 4,2 mld.	US$ 2,4 mld.	US$ 237 mln.	US$ 3 mld.	US$ 5,3 mld.	—	-US$ 6,4 mld.	-US$ 8,5 mld.	US$ 10,8 mld.	US$ 5,6 mld.	US$ 5,7 mld.	US$ 32 mld.	15,3%	—	4,0%	—
2020-12-26	US$ 70,4 mld.	US$ 13,2 mld.	US$ 7,1 mld.	US$ 10,6 mld.	US$ 6,4 mld.	US$ 4,2 mld.	US$ 2,5 mld.	US$ 264 mln.	US$ 2 mld.	US$ 5,5 mld.	—	-US$ 11,6 mld.	US$ 3,8 mld.	US$ 5,6 mld.	US$ 8,3 mld.	US$ 9,6 mld.	US$ 43,7 mld.	14,3%	—	2,7%	—
2021-12-25	US$ 79,5 mld.	US$ 14,9 mld.	US$ 7,6 mld.	US$ 11,6 mld.	US$ 7 mld.	US$ 4,6 mld.	US$ 2,7 mld.	US$ 301 mln.	US$ 106 mln.	US$ 5,8 mld.	—	-US$ 3,3 mld.	-US$ 10,8 mld.	US$ 8,3 mld.	US$ 5,7 mld.	US$ 6 mld.	US$ 39,9 mld.	14,0%	—	3,5%	—
2022-12-31	US$ 86,4 mld.	US$ 14,9 mld.	US$ 8,9 mld.	US$ 10,8 mld.	US$ 5,6 mld.	US$ 5,2 mld.	US$ 2,8 mld.	US$ 343 mln.	US$ 1,5 mld.	US$ 6,2 mld.	-US$ 810 mln.	-US$ 2,4 mld.	-US$ 8,5 mld.	US$ 5,7 mld.	US$ 5,1 mld.	US$ 5,3 mld.	US$ 38,8 mld.	13,3%	—	5,8%	—
2023-12-30	US$ 91,5 mld.	US$ 15,8 mld.	US$ 9,1 mld.	US$ 13,4 mld.	US$ 7,9 mld.	US$ 5,5 mld.	US$ 2,9 mld.	US$ 380 mln.	US$ 1 mld.	US$ 6,7 mld.	US$ 4,8 mld.	-US$ 5,5 mld.	-US$ 3 mld.	US$ 5,1 mld.	US$ 9,8 mld.	US$ 10 mld.	US$ 41,5 mld.	13,1%	—	5,6%	—
2024-12-28	US$ 91,9 mld.	US$ 16,7 mld.	US$ 9,6 mld.	US$ 12,5 mld.	US$ 7,2 mld.	US$ 5,3 mld.	US$ 3,2 mld.	US$ 362 mln.	US$ 1 mld.	US$ 7,2 mld.	US$ 695 mln.	-US$ 5,5 mld.	-US$ 7,6 mld.	US$ 9,8 mld.	US$ 8,6 mld.	US$ 9,3 mld.	US$ 41,2 mld.	14,0%	—	6,2%	—
2025-12-27	US$ 93,9 mld.	US$ 15,5 mld.	US$ 8,2 mld.	US$ 12,1 mld.	US$ 7,7 mld.	US$ 4,4 mld.	US$ 3,5 mld.	US$ 288 mln.	US$ 1 mld.	US$ 7,6 mld.	US$ 3,7 mld.	-US$ 6,9 mld.	-US$ 5 mld.	US$ 8,6 mld.	US$ 9,2 mld.	US$ 9,5 mld.	US$ 46,4 mld.	12,2%	—	5,3%	—

§9 Waarderingsvergelijking met sectorgenoten

PepsiCo, Inc.PEP

Koers / reële waarde

Reële waardeUS$ 128,71Report-date priceUS$ 129,62

Beoordelingsdatum21 sep 2026

ConcurrentievoordeelWide

Beleggingsscorekaart63 / 100

The Coca-Cola CompanyKO

Koers / reële waarde

Reële waardeUS$ 57,11Report-date priceUS$ 88,07

Beoordelingsdatum08 sep 2026

ConcurrentievoordeelNone

Beleggingsscorekaart53 / 100

The Procter & Gamble CompanyPG

Koers / reële waarde

Reële waardeUS$ 126,47Report-date priceUS$ 145,58

Beoordelingsdatum09 sep 2026

ConcurrentievoordeelNarrow

Beleggingsscorekaart56 / 100

PepsiCo, Inc.PEP

Koers / reële waarde

Reële waardeUS$ 128,71Report-date priceUS$ 129,62

Beoordelingsdatum21 sep 2026

ConcurrentievoordeelWide

Beleggingsscorekaart63 / 100

Peer-multiples en winstgevendheid
Ticker	Naam	Marktkap.	P/E	P/S	EV/EBITDA	ROE

PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) trades at 14.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 23.0x. Its EV/EBITDA of 11.6x compares with a peer median of 19.7x. The comparison uses 4 peers: The Coca-Cola Company, The Procter & Gamble Company, Colgate-Palmolive Company and Monster Beverage Corporation, as of 2026-09-21.

§10 Sector & cyclusEN

Cyclusfase

Expansion

Industry capex-to-revenue stands at 4.7% with capex-to-depreciation at 1.59, while PepsiCo invested $4,415M in capital expenditures (4.70% of revenue) in FY2025 against $3,451M in depreciation.⁷

Bullencyclus

In an expansionary upswing, consumer demand for convenience snacks and zero-sugar beverages outpaces inflation, allowing brand leaders to push selective price increases while away-from-home channels drive high-margin fountain and impulse volumes.

Berencyclus

In a downturn or stagflationary environment, household budget tightening accelerates consumer trade-down to private label snacks, convenience and impulse foot traffic slows, and commodity inflation across packaging, sugar, and freight compresses margins.

Seculaire trends
Trend	Impact	Notitie
Health and Wellness Shift toward Zero-Sugar and Functional Formulations	positive	Consumers are steadily migrating to low-sugar beverages and better-for-you snack options, where PepsiCo's R&D scale and brand reformulations capture premium pricing.
Private Label Savory Snack Penetration	negative	Rising grocery prices have incentivized retail grocers to expand private label salty snacks, pressuring premium branded snack volumes and demanding increased price-pack promotional spending.
Emerging Market Middle Class Consumption	positive

Positionering

PepsiCo holds an advantaged position as one of the few global food and beverage giants with integrated snack and beverage operations, enabling unmatched DSD route density and dual-category retail negotiations relative to beverage-only peers like Coca-Cola.⁵

§11 PositiebeheerEN

Positiegrootte

3-5%

A neutral portfolio weighting of 3-5% aligns with the Hold rating, reflecting a fair risk-reward trade-off where the shares trade within 1% of the $128.71 Fair value midpoint.⁴

Risico

Maintain disciplined position limits within defensive equity allocations, hedge foreign exchange exposure where practicable, and monitor quarterly volume share trends across domestic snack aisles to detect structural trade-down.

Entree-tranches
Niveau	Actie	Waarom
$110.00 - $115.00	Consider initiating or adding to position	A 10-15% discount to Fair value ($128.71) provides an attractive margin of safety and raises the dividend yield above historical averages.
	Opportunistic accumulation	Corresponds to the conservative valuation lower boundary, offering significant downside protection against stress-test scenarios.

Exit-tranches
Niveau	Actie
$150.00 - $155.00	Trim position to harvest gains as valuation approaches consensus target levels.
$168.61	Harvest full gains as shares reach Potential value upper boundary.

Kwartaalcheckpoints
Metriek	Drempel	Actie
PBNA Operating Margin	< 3.50%	Review commercial partner agreements and downgrade beverage earnings recovery expectations.⁸
Consolidated Gross Margin

PEP	PepsiCo Inc.	$177.2B	14.4x	1.8x	11.6x	51.5%	—
KO	The Coca-Cola Company	$377.9B	24.9x	7.5x	24.1x	42.1%	34.9%
PG	The Procter & Gamble Company	$341.0B	19.8x	3.9x	14.8x	30.3%	22.1%
CL	Colgate-Palmolive Company	$69.1B	21.1x	3.3x	15.3x	267.4%	21.0%
MNST	Monster Beverage Corporation	$86.6B	33.8x	9.4x	28.7x	25.7%	29.2%

Is PepsiCo, Inc. overvalued?

What is PEP's fair value?

Should I buy PEP now?

What are the biggest risks for PEP?

What is PEP's rating?

What archetype is PEP?

PepsiCo, Inc.

Names readers of PEP also follow

Bedrijfsoverzicht

operating_margin

revenue_growth

Wide

Sources of advantage

Lenses that set Fair value

Forward Earnings

North American Beverage Operating Margin Recovery

Frito-Lay North America Volume and Market Share

Sources

wacc

gross_margin

fcf

Cash flow DCF

Owner Earnings

Sum of the Parts

Dividend Discount Model

Checks and reference points

Reverse DCF

International Organic Revenue and Volume Growth

Away-From-Home and Foodservice Channel Acceleration

Free Cash Flow Conversion and Dividend Coverage