Optionele productanalyse
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The opportunity is conditional: FY2028 earnings meet the forecast, inventory timing clears, and reported profit keeps turning into cash.
Walmart and affiliates exceeding 18% of revenue in the next annual filing, or a disclosed repricing, in-sourcing or share-loss event, is the trigger.
Reduce. At $145.58 on September 8, 2026, the shares stand above $126.47 Fair value, although $204.04 Potential value shows conditional upside.3
An ordinary investor should trim rather than add. The report-date price implies downside of 13.13% to Fair value.3
The main risk is retailer bargaining power. Walmart and affiliates represented 16% of FY2026 revenue, so concessions could weaken price, volume, margin and cash.
The clearest upside is conditional. High-velocity products must support faster restocking, FY2028 earnings must meet the forecast, and FY2026 cash generation must persist. If those conditions hold, value per share can improve.146
Retailers can unstock and restock major products with few decisions, while supply-chain capability helps manage those swings.4
The favorable path is demand-led: inventory timing clears, regional consumption improves and productivity absorbs cost pressure.4
Reduce because the report-date price exceeds Fair value despite durable cash generation.36
Reduce because the report-date price exceeds Fair value despite durable cash generation.36
enable its consumers to reduce their footprint without compromising on the performance of the products they use. The Procter & Gamble Company develops and license technologies that can be used across industries to improve environmental sustainability at a broader scale. Global Business Services provides scaled services in technology, process and data tools to enable the SBUs, the EMs and CF to better serve consumers and customers. The GBS organization is responsible for providing world-class services and solutions that drive value for P&G. (1)Other segment items for each reportable segment includes interest expense, interest income and certain other non-operating income/(expense).
Corporate includes non-operating losses comprised primarily of a non-cash charge of $752 for accumulated foreign currency translation losses due to the substantial liquidation of operations in Argentina. See Note 3 for more information on the limited market portfolio restructuring program. Corporate includes non-operating income comprised primarily of a $343 gain due to the dissolution of the Glad joint venture business.
A simultaneous rate reset, sustained margin break and weaker long-run growth would reduce earnings durability and the value investors assign to future cash.
Repeated regional growth misses or recurring shipment-consumption gaps in the United States and Europe would make this path visible. The dedicated downside section carries the testable thresholds.
If required returns rise by one percentage point within 12 months, unchanged forecasts still lose value because future cash is discounted more heavily.2
If operating margin stays below 20% for two fiscal years, weaker earnings would justify a lower price for each future profit dollar.
De vijf ontwikkelingen die onze beleggingsthese zouden verzwakken.
The path expects FY2027 revenue growth of 2.0% and EPS of $6.98, followed by FY2028 revenue growth of 3.02% and EPS of $7.40. Missing either year's revenue threshold or earnings path would weaken the post-FY2028 growth outlook and valuation support.
Huidig:FY2027 house anchor: 2.0% as of 2026-09-09.
Waarschuwing als
The narrow moat has two distinct supports. High-velocity products and supply-chain responsiveness help preserve shelf relevance when retailers change inventory. Management also says its broad product portfolio helps defend against private label.
These advantages remain conditional. Logistics cannot create consumer demand or prove pricing power. Innovation must deliver visible product gains and balanced price-and-volume growth; otherwise retailer concentration and competitive pressure can narrow the edge.
FY2026 cash from operations exceeded net income, supporting the economics of the business. That outcome is not counted as a moat source.6
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($126.47). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $15.3B after modeled capex of $3.6B, with terminal value at 65.1% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The base case is modest compounding, not a sharp reacceleration. A miss against either annual revenue anchor would disconfirm it by FY2028.1
A beat matters if consumption, margins and cash improve together, not if shipments merely move between quarters.
Meeting the forecast would preserve the operating thesis but would not close the gap between $145.58 (as of 2026-09-08) and $126.47.
Persistent consumption gaps would lower revenue. Fewer units would leave fixed factory costs spread over fewer products, reducing margins and cash rather than merely shifting shipments between quarters.
FY2026 reported profit converted into more cash from operations, while free cash flow remained positive after capital spending.56
A miss would weaken earnings and cash expectations beyond FY2028.1
FY2026 cash from operations was $19.56 billion. It covered $4.41 billion of capital spending and left $15.15 billion of reported free cash flow.56
FY2026 capital spending was $4.41 billion. Debt of $35.03 billion exceeded cash of $9.94 billion, limiting how much cash should be treated as excess.
FY2026 operating income and cash generation show healthy economics, but they do not establish a multi-year return-on-invested-capital direction.
The 6.9981% WACC is a valuation input; no direct spread is asserted from non-comparable evidence.
FY2026 revenue was $87.03 billion and operating income was $19.75 billion.
This supports near-current profitability, but recent core margin pressure argues against assuming expansion.
Diluted average shares declined from 2.4719 billion in FY2024 to 2.4225 billion in FY2026.
Continued share reduction would support earnings per share, but the historical trend is not a commitment to future buybacks.
| Omzet | US$ 87.032.000.000 |
|---|---|
| Kostprijs van de omzet | US$ 43.363.000.000 |
| Brutowinst | US$ 43.669.000.000 |
| Bedrijfskosten | US$ 23.921.000.000 |
| Bedrijfsresultaat | US$ 19.748.000.000 |
| Niet-operationele posten en belastingen | US$ -3.702.000.000 |
| Nettowinst | US$ 16.046.000.000 |
| Totale activa | US$ 126.521.000.000 |
|---|---|
| Liquide middelen | US$ 9.942.000.000 |
| Vlottende activa | US$ 26.208.000.000 |
| Totale verplichtingen | US$ 72.210.000.000 |
| Kortlopende verplichtingen | US$ 38.694.000.000 |
| Eigen vermogen | US$ 54.311.000.000 |
| Nettowinst | US$ 16.046.000.000 |
|---|---|
| Operationele instroom | US$ 19.730.000.000 |
| Afschrijvingen en amortisatie | US$ 3.160.000.000 |
| Aandelenbeloning | US$ 524.000.000 |
| Operationele kasstroom | US$ 19.556.000.000 |
| Operationele uitstroom | US$ 174.000.000 |
| Beschikbare liquide middelen | US$ 29.112.000.000 |
| Beginstand liquide middelen | US$ 9.556.000.000 |
| Investeringsuitstroom | US$ 4.624.000.000 |
| Investeringen | US$ 4.409.000.000 |
| Overige investeringsactiviteiten | US$ 215.000.000 |
| Financieringsuitstroom | US$ 14.460.000.000 |
| Wisselkoerseffect | US$ 86.000.000 |
| Eindstand liquide middelen | US$ 9.942.000.000 |
| Investeringskasstroom | US$ -4.624.000.000 |
| Financieringskasstroom | US$ -14.460.000.000 |
Bron: SEC EDGAR · Ingediend 2026-08-04 · SEC EDGAR
| Omzet per regio | Omzet | Aandeel | j-o-j |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non Us | US$ 45,3 mld. | 52% | 6,1% |
| United States | US$ 41,7 mld. | 47,9% | 0,2% |
Financiële momentopname gebruikt in de analyse van 2026-09-09.
| Periode | Omzet | EBITDA | Nettowinst | Operationele kasstroom | Vrije kasstroom | Investeringen | Afschrijvingen en amortisatie | Aandelenbeloning | Aandeleninkoop | Betaalde dividenden | Netto schuldemissie | Investeringskasstroom | Financieringskasstroom | Beginstand liquide middelen | Eindstand liquide middelen | Kas en beleggingen | Totale schuld | Operationele marge | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC-spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-06-30 | US$ 65,1 mld. | US$ 16,5 mld. | US$ 15,3 mld. | US$ 12,8 mld. | US$ 9,4 mld. | US$ 3,4 mld. | US$ 2,8 mld. | US$ 351 mln. | US$ 5,2 mld. | US$ 7,2 mld. | — | -US$ 6,7 mld. | -US$ 8,6 mld. | — | US$ 5,6 mld. | US$ 15,1 mld. | US$ 31,6 mld. | 21,2% | — | 4,6% | — |
| 2018-06-30 | US$ 66,8 mld. | US$ 16,7 mld. | US$ 9,8 mld. | US$ 14,9 mld. | US$ 11,2 mld. | US$ 3,7 mld. | US$ 2,8 mld. | US$ 395 mln. | US$ 7 mld. | US$ 7,3 mld. | — | -US$ 3,5 mld. | -US$ 14,4 mld. | US$ 5,6 mld. | US$ 2,6 mld. | US$ 11,9 mld. | US$ 31,4 mld. | 20,0% | — | 5,1% | — |
| 2019-06-30 | US$ 67,7 mld. | US$ 9,4 mld. | US$ 3,9 mld. | US$ 15,2 mld. | US$ 11,9 mld. | US$ 3,3 mld. | US$ 2,8 mld. | US$ 515 mln. | US$ 5 mld. | US$ 7,5 mld. | — | -US$ 3,5 mld. | -US$ 10 mld. | US$ 2,6 mld. | US$ 4,2 mld. | US$ 10,3 mld. | US$ 30,1 mld. | 8,1% | — | 4,2% | — |
| 2020-06-30 | US$ 71 mld. | US$ 19,3 mld. | US$ 13 mld. | US$ 17,4 mld. | US$ 14,3 mld. | US$ 3,1 mld. | US$ 3 mld. | US$ 558 mln. | US$ 7,4 mld. | US$ 7,8 mld. | — | US$ 3 mld. | -US$ 8,4 mld. | US$ 4,2 mld. | US$ 16,2 mld. | US$ 16,2 mld. | US$ 35,6 mld. | 22,1% | — | 3,0% | — |
| 2021-06-30 | US$ 76,1 mld. | US$ 20,9 mld. | US$ 14,3 mld. | US$ 18,4 mld. | US$ 15,6 mld. | US$ 2,8 mld. | US$ 2,7 mld. | US$ 540 mln. | US$ 11 mld. | US$ 8,3 mld. | — | -US$ 2,8 mld. | -US$ 21,5 mld. | US$ 16,2 mld. | US$ 10,3 mld. | US$ 10,3 mld. | US$ 32,8 mld. | 23,6% | — | 3,9% | — |
| 2022-06-30 | US$ 80,2 mld. | US$ 21,2 mld. | US$ 14,7 mld. | US$ 16,7 mld. | US$ 13,6 mld. | US$ 3,2 mld. | US$ 2,8 mld. | US$ 528 mln. | US$ 10 mld. | US$ 8,8 mld. | US$ 1,9 mld. | -US$ 4,4 mld. | -US$ 14,9 mld. | US$ 10,3 mld. | US$ 7,2 mld. | US$ 7,2 mld. | US$ 32,3 mld. | 22,2% | — | 5,5% | — |
| 2023-06-30 | US$ 82 mld. | US$ 21,8 mld. | US$ 14,7 mld. | US$ 16,8 mld. | US$ 13,8 mld. | US$ 3,1 mld. | US$ 2,7 mld. | US$ 545 mln. | US$ 7,4 mld. | US$ 9 mld. | US$ 2,9 mld. | -US$ 3,5 mld. | -US$ 12,1 mld. | US$ 7,2 mld. | US$ 8,2 mld. | US$ 8,2 mld. | US$ 35,4 mld. | 22,1% | — | 6,2% | — |
| 2024-06-30 | US$ 84 mld. | US$ 22,6 mld. | US$ 14,9 mld. | US$ 19,8 mld. | US$ 16,5 mld. | US$ 3,3 mld. | US$ 2,9 mld. | US$ 562 mln. | US$ 5 mld. | US$ 9,3 mld. | -US$ 2,4 mld. | -US$ 3,5 mld. | -US$ 14,9 mld. | US$ 8,2 mld. | US$ 9,5 mld. | US$ 9,5 mld. | US$ 33,4 mld. | 22,1% | — | 6,8% | — |
| 2025-06-30 | US$ 84,3 mld. | US$ 23,9 mld. | US$ 16 mld. | US$ 17,8 mld. | US$ 14 mld. | US$ 3,8 mld. | US$ 2,8 mld. | US$ 476 mln. | US$ 6,5 mld. | US$ 9,9 mld. | US$ 630 mln. | -US$ 3,8 mld. | -US$ 14 mld. | US$ 9,5 mld. | US$ 9,6 mld. | US$ 9,6 mld. | US$ 35,5 mld. | 24,3% | — | 6,4% | — |
| 2026-06-30 | US$ 87 mld. | US$ 21,3 mld. | US$ 16 mld. | US$ 19,6 mld. | US$ 15,1 mld. | US$ 4,4 mld. | US$ 3,2 mld. | US$ 524 mln. | US$ 5 mld. | US$ 10,2 mld. | -US$ 107 mln. | -US$ 4,6 mld. | -US$ 14,5 mld. | US$ 9,6 mld. | US$ 9,9 mld. | US$ 9,9 mld. | US$ 35 mld. | 22,7% | — | — | — |
The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) trades at 21.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 18.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 14.7x compares with a peer median of 16.0x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Colgate-Palmolive Company, The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo Inc. and Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, as of 2026-09-09.
Industry capital spending was 1.1% of revenue and 1.07 times depreciation as of 2026-09-01. This indicates only mild capacity expansion.
The favorable path is demand-led: inventory timing clears, regional consumption improves and productivity absorbs cost pressure.
The adverse path combines weak consumer demand, heavier promotion and persistent input costs, reducing both sales growth and operating profit.
CL is the closest household-products comparison. KO and PEP test branded shelf economics. ADM is mainly an input and low-margin benchmark, making the mixed group only a range check.
Smaller than a normal full position. The report-date price exceeds Fair value, while the wide outcome range does not remove operating risks.3
Treat an 18% largest-customer share as a monitoring threshold, not a proven tipping point. The evidence does not establish the likelihood of crossing it or of a retailer-specific commercial action. If either appears, reduce further because stronger retailer bargaining power could weaken price, volume, profit and cash. Check the next annual filing.
Avoid maintaining a full position; trim because the report-date price exceeds Fair value.3
Do not initiate while valuation exceeds Fair value and the FY2028 recovery remains an expectation.1
Strong cash generation supports distributions, but it does not offset the valuation gap or retailer concentration.67
Trim exposure because the report-date price stands above Fair value.
The business can compound at a modest rate, but valuation already requires durable margins, better regional demand and continued cash generation.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
If sustainable revenue growth stays below 1.5% for three fiscal years, the long-run cash base shrinks and duration-sensitive values fall.4
Repeated shipment-consumption gaps would show that retailer inventory timing has become persistent demand or execution weakness. That would reduce reported revenue and make the FY2027-FY2028 growth path harder to achieve.
Huidig:FY2026: shipment and consumption timing affected the United States and Europe.
Waarschuwing alsMore than two forecast misses within four consecutive quarters.
A sustained margin break would show productivity cannot offset costs, pricing pressure or promotion, reducing earnings and the price investors pay.
Huidig:FY2026 operating margin: 22.69%.
Waarschuwing alsBelow 20% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Greater concentration or a customer action would raise bargaining pressure, weaken price realization and expose more revenue to one retailer.
Huidig:Walmart and affiliates: 16% of FY2026 revenue.
Waarschuwing alsAbove 18% in the next annual filing, or a specific repricing, in-sourcing or share-loss event.
If reported profit stops turning into operating cash, less cash would remain for dividends, buybacks and debt reduction. That would weaken per-share support even if accounting profit stays positive.
Huidig:FY2026 operating cash was $19.56 billion versus $16.05 billion of net income.
Waarschuwing alsAt or below $0.80 of operating cash for each $1.00 of reported profit over a trailing fiscal year.
| Competitive margin pressure |
| medium |
| Through FY2028 |
| Productivity can offset some cost pressure, but core operating margin declined 130 basis points in FY2026.4 |
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 65.1% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 79.8% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Upside requires FY2028 earnings to meet the forecast, FY2026 cash generation to persist, and the FY2024-to-FY2026 decline in diluted shares to continue. A miss against the FY2028 forecast or weaker operating cash would disconfirm this path.16
Repeated gaps would indicate persistent demand weakness rather than timing.4
A sustained decline would reduce earnings and the value assigned to each future profit dollar.4
Higher concentration would increase retailer bargaining power over price, promotion and volume.7
Strong conversion funds investment, debt service and shareholder distributions without relying only on reported earnings.6
| $93.74B |
| $96.08B |
| $98.49B |
| Operating income | $19.97B | $20.58B | $21.09B | $21.62B | $22.16B |
| NOPAT | $15.87B | $16.35B | $16.76B | $17.18B | $17.61B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $15.87B | $16.35B | $16.76B | $17.18B | $17.61B |
| Revenue growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | 22.5% | 22.5% | 22.5% |
| Tax rate | 20.5% | 20.5% | 20.5% | 20.5% | 20.5% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Marge |
|---|
| PG | The Procter & Gamble Company | $340.1B | 21.1x | 3.9x | 14.7x | 30.3% | — |
| CL | Colgate-Palmolive Company | 21.5x | 3.3x | 15.5x | 267.4% | 21.0% | |
| KO | The Coca-Cola Company | 25.1x | 7.6x | 24.1x | 42.1% | 34.9% | |
| PEP | PepsiCo Inc. | 15.4x | 2.0x | 12.3x | 51.5% | 16.8% | |
| ADM | Archer-Daniels-Midland Company | 14.9x | 0.5x | 16.5x | 7.6% | 4.0% |
