PG is a mature dividend payer with unmatched brand equity, generating consistent $14B+ in free cash flow to support a 61.8% payout ratio and steady buybacks. While structurally low-growth, its cash generation is highly resilient. Current valuation models anchor fair value at $163.44, implying 11.56% upside from the current $146.50 price. Fair value range: low $139, high $188, with mid-point at $163.
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§1 Samenvatting
Unmatched brand equity and pricing power secure a wide economic moat.
Generates $14B+ in annual FCF, fully covering a safe 61.8% dividend payout.
Synthesized fair value of $163.44 perfectly aligns with street internal valuation cross-checks.
Key risk involves volume erosion from consumer trade-down to private labels.
Fair value
$163
Margin of safety
+10.4%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.
$146.51Price
Low $138.86
Mid $163.44
High $188.03
PG is a mature dividend payer with unmatched brand equity, generating consistent $14B+ in free cash flow to support a 61.8% payout ratio and steady buybacks. While structurally low-growth, its cash generation is highly resilient. Current valuation models anchor fair value at $163.44, implying 11.56% upside from the current $146.50 price.
Unmatched brand equity across 65+
Unmatched brand equity across 65+ category-leading brands.
Immense pricing power evidenced by
Immense pricing power evidenced by 51%+ gross margins.
Bull thesis
Valuation: FCFF DCF indicates fair value of $163.44, closely matching the street internal valuation cross-checks of $163.77.
PG (PG)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.
Each model produces a per-share value; the composite range comes from a weighted blend driven by the archetype's model-applicability matrix. Cost of equity, terminal growth, and the deceleration curve are documented in the assumption ledger.
EPS-based models are discounted at cost of equity; FCFF models use WACC and then subtract net debt to bridge enterprise value to equity value. Each model is labelled with its discount-rate convention so the reader can verify the bridge.
Owner earnings (Buffett's definition) is net income plus depreciation and amortization minus maintenance capex. We do not subtract stock-based compensation again because net income already includes it; dilution is tracked separately via share-count growth.
FAQ
PG — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, PG looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $147 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $163 (range $139–$188), which implies roughly 11.6% upside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for PG is $139–$188, with a midpoint of $163. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for PG's archetype.
Our current rating for PG is Buy with a confidence score of 88/100. Buy. PG is a quintessential mature dividend payer with unmatched brand equity, generating consistent $14B+ in free cash flow to support its 61.8% payout ratio. The $163.44 fair value presents an 11.56% upside. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for PG are: Private Label Ascendancy; Margin Compression; FX Headwinds. The single biggest risk is Yield: Attractive and safe dividend yield supported by massive free cash flow generation.
Our current rating for PG is Buy, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($139–$188) versus the current price of $147.
PG is classified as a mature-dividend stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for PG.
