Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
Atlassian maintains an immense moat in developer and project management tooling (Jira, Confluence). However, extreme reliance on Stock-Based Compensation obscures true profitability, masking negative GAAP margins beneath robust free cash flow. Continued cloud migration and enterprise upmarket penetration drive top-line resilience, but eventual multiple expansion will strictly require GAAP margin improvement and SBC rationalization. Fair value range: low $185, high $400, with mid-point at $282.
Stock analysis

TEAM Atlassian Corporation fair value $282–$400

TEAM
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Geanalyseerd: 2026-05-09Volgende update: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.4Archetype: Pre-profitNASDAQ · Information Technology
View archive
Koers
$91.60
▲ +189.90 (+207.31%)
Fair value
$282
$282–$400
Beoordeling
Sterk kopen
confidence 65/100
Opwaarts potentieel
+207.3%
upside to fair value
Veiligheidsmarge
$239.28
buy below · 15%
Marktkapitalisatie
$23.2B
P/E fwd 14.7
Engelse bronNL
Engelse bron wordt weergegeven terwijl we vertalen
Dit rapport is nog niet vertaald. Vernieuw over een paar minuten zodra de vertaalwachtrij is bijgewerkt.

§1 Samenvatting

  • Primary $281.50 target driven by immense 84% gross margin leverage and sticky enterprise moat.
  • Extreme divergence from $142 consensus stems from the market extrapolating near-term SBC dilution into perpetuity.
  • FCF remains exceptionally robust ($1.41B) but is offset nearly 1:1 by stock issuance.
  • Valuation explicitly demands GAAP operating margins reaching 22% and securing an 8x EV/Revenue multiple.
Fair value
$282
Margin of safety
+67.5%
Confidence
65/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$91.60Price
FV $281.5
High $399.57

Atlassian maintains an immense moat in developer and project management tooling (Jira, Confluence). However, extreme reliance on Stock-Based Compensation obscures true profitability, masking negative GAAP margins beneath robust free cash flow. Continued cloud migration and enterprise upmarket penetration drive top-line resilience, but eventual multiple expansion will strictly require GAAP margin improvement and SBC rationalization.

  • High switching costs in core
    High switching costs in core Jira/Confluence deployments
  • Network effects in collaborative Jira
    Network effects in collaborative Jira Service Management
  • Cycle upside
    Enterprise cloud migration phase concludes, shifting momentum to high-margin recurring renewals and AI upsells.

§2 Berenscenario

A severe macroeconomic contraction in software developer hiring halts seat expansion entirely. Combined with investor refusal to back out ~26% SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash., multiple compression drives valuation toward PEGPEG ratioForward P/E divided by growth rate as integer percent (e.g. 20 for 20% growth). A PEG of 1.0 is the conventional fair-value reference; below 1.0 is cheap relative to growth.-adjusted peer lows.

Hoe deze these kan breken

Macro Seat Deceleration

· Medium

Prolonged tech hiring freezes permanently stall organic seat expansion, breaking the core growth assumption.

FV impact
Severe (-50%)
Trigger
12-24 months

Perpetual SBC Dilution

· High

Stock-based compensation remains above 25% of revenue, permanently depressing GAAP operating margins.

FV impact
Severe (-40%)
Trigger
2-3 years

AI Displacement

· Low

AI-driven developer efficiency reduces total enterprise engineering headcount needs, shrinking TEAM's TAM.

FV impact
Moderate (-20%)
Trigger
3-5 years
Vroege waarschuwingssignalen om te volgen
MetriekHuidigTrigger-drempel
SBC remains > 25% of total revenueMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Cloud revenue growth structurally falls < 15%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Enterprise customer churn spikes post-migrationMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
GAAP operating margin materially misses 22% targetMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin degrades below 80% baselineMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Financiële historie

Winst-en-verliesrekening — laatste zes perioden
PostT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Periode2021-06-302022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
Omzet—$2.80B$3.53B$4.36B$5.22B+16.8%
Brutowinst—$2.35B$2.90B$3.56B$4.32B+16.4%
Bedrijfsresultaat—$70.1M$-345.2M$-117.1M$-130.4MNaN%
Nettowinst—$-519.5M$-486.8M$-300.5M$-256.7M—
WPA (verwaterd)$-2.79$-2.42$-1.90$-1.16——
EBITDA—$-377.7M$-220.1M$27.4M$24.0M—
R&D—$1.29B$1.87B$2.18B$2.67B+19.9%
VAA—$978.7M$1.37B$1.48B$1.77B+15.9%

Kwaliteitsscores

OCF / Nettowinst
-5.69
>1 wijst op hoge winstkwaliteit
Drempel boekhoudkwaliteit
Fail
Sector-aangepaste drempel
ROIC
-0.0%
Rendement op geïnvesteerd kapitaal
Sectie 3

Numbers analysis

Individuele abonnees — vanaf §411 extra secties

Lees de volledige analyse — 11 extra secties.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Volledig rapport voor elke gedekte ticker
24 maanden rating-archief
Watchlist-briefings + rating-wijzigingsmeldingen
PDF + DOCX-export in elke taal
Start gratis proefperiode
Op elk moment opzegbaar.
FAQ

TEAM — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, TEAM looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $91.6 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $282 (range $185–$400), which implies roughly 207.3% upside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of TEAM also follow

Same archetype: pre-profit
Same sector: Information Technology