Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO)

The Base case represents our modal expectation where Thermo Fisher delivers steady operational execution in line with management guidance. Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services maintains steady recurring demand, while Analytical Instruments sustains moderate single-digit expansion. This path yields our Fair value of $318.21 (implied return of -51.5% at 60.0% probability) versus $656.45 as of $656.45 (as of 2026-09-21). Disconfirmation would appear if customer biopharma spending decelerates below guided ranges or tariff friction erodes gross margin.

• Organic revenue growth tracks full-year guided bounds before moderating toward long-term rates
• Consolidated operating margin holds near historical baseline levels
• Ongoing share repurchases reduce diluted share count at historical rates