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Verisk's biggest opportunity lies in the rapid adoption of automated underwriting and generative AI claims processing across property and casualty insurers.
Mergers among top-50 property and casualty insurance carriers lead to enterprise license consolidation and pushback against annual contract price escalators.
We assign a Reduce rating to Verisk Analytics Inc., as the share price of $168.68 on the analysis date trades at a 10.7% premium over our Fair value of $152.32, implying an unfavorable negative 9.7% return.4
Our rating for Verisk Analytics Inc. is Reduce. For an investor, this recommendation indicates that capital is better preserved by trimming existing holdings or waiting for a more attractive entry price. While Verisk operates a high-quality, entrenched business, current market pricing already reflects several years of steady operational execution, leaving investors exposed to valuation multiple contraction without an adequate margin of safety.
The report was prepared at a price of $168.68 on October 7, 2026. This price stands 10.7% above our Fair value of $152.32, which results in an implied return of negative 9.7%. Although Verisk's Potential value reaches $170.57 under optimistic operating assumptions, the October 7, 2026 share price of $168.68 already sits within 1.1% of that ceiling, leaving minimal cushion relative to the house Fair value benchmark.4
The primary risk that would further impair the investment thesis is consolidation among tier-one property and casualty insurance carriers coupled with client in-sourcing of claims analytics. If carrier mergers lead to license rationalization and pushback against annual contract fee increases, organic subscription revenue growth would drop below 3.0% and operating margins would compress below 40.5%. An investor would observe this risk unfolding through deceleration in subscription revenue growth across consecutive quarters and shrinking customer revenue retention among the top fifty carriers.67
The primary fundamental driver that can support per-share equity value is Verisk's proprietary data network and capital-light software model. Because incremental underwriting inquiries and automated claims transactions require near-zero additional data gathering costs, operating margins can expand from 43.74% toward 44.5% on mid-single-digit sales growth. Combined with capital expenditures under 8% of revenue ($244.1M in FY2025), the business converts substantial cash into disciplined share repurchases. If automated workflow adoption accelerates, equity value could approach Potential value of $170.57, though this path remains strictly secondary to our central Fair value of $152.32.456
Verisk aggregates multi-carrier loss history and standard ISO advisory loss cost filings that cannot be duplicated by any individual insurer, sustaining renewal rates above 95% across major P&C carriers.7
Delivering analytics and catastrophe models incurs near-zero marginal cost, driving GAAP operating margins of 43.74% in FY2025 that far exceed broader industry levels of 12.30%.6
Low capital expenditures of $244.1M enabled free cash flow of $1,191.9M in FY2025, allowing management to reduce diluted shares outstanding by 6.47% to 131.02M by late 2026.456
We rate Verisk Analytics Reduce because the stock trades at $168.68 on the analysis date, representing a 10.7% premium over our Fair value of $152.32 and offering an unfavorable negative 9.7% implied return despite exceptional business quality.4
Verisk Analytics Inc. provides data analytics, statistical underwriting rules, and risk management solutions primarily serving the property and casualty insurance industry in the United States and internationally. The company delivers industry-standard insurance programs that help insurers define coverage terms, write policies, and calculate prospective loss costs across 32 distinct lines of insurance. Its integrated offerings combine standardized policy language, rating rules, and workflow optimization tools that embed directly into carrier underwriting systems.
The company also specializes in probabilistic catastrophe modeling, helping insurers, reinsurers, financial institutions, and government agencies evaluate financial exposure to natural and man-made disasters. Its risk models span extreme weather events—including hurricanes, earthquakes, wildfires, and floods—across more than 120 countries and territories, alongside casualty, terrorism, and crop models in markets including the United States, Canada, India, and China.
A comprehensive downside scenario models the compounding impact of macro stagnation and carrier consolidation across the property and casualty sector. If annual subscription revenue growth decelerates to 3.0-4.0%, operating margins contract toward 41.5% under SG&A compliance inflation, and the forward earnings terminal multiple contracts from 20.0x toward the peer median of 16.0x, equity value faces significant pressure. Additionally, refinancing near-term debt obligations of $1,511.2M out of $4,617.1M total debt at market debt yields of 5.96% would expand interest expense and divert cash from share repurchases, reducing net per-share compounding accretion.
The downside path contemplates an environment where property and casualty insurer underwriting losses prompt carrier consolidation, leading to enterprise license rationalization and resistance against annual contract price escalators. Higher borrowing costs on refinancing maturing debt obligations increase interest burdens, while regulatory scrutiny around algorithmic underwriting inflates compliance expenses, compressing operating margins and prompting valuation multiple contraction toward peer medians.
Verisk currently trades at a forward P/E of 20.08x, commanding a premium over peers CPRT (15.21x), DOV (16.21x), and XYL (16.35x). If growth slows toward 3.5%, multiple contraction toward the peer median of 16.28x drives a -20.0% reduction in equity fair value.34
De vijf ontwikkelingen die onze beleggingsthese zouden verzwakken.
Indicates customer pushback against annual contract fee escalators or loss of data consortium pricing leverage, necessitating an immediate downward revision to explicit revenue growth assumptions.
Huidig:6.63% YoY (FY2025 revenue of $3,072.7M vs $2,881.7M in FY2024)
Waarschuwing als
Verisk Analytics commands an exceptional Wide economic moat rooted in insurmountable switching costs, irreplaceable consortium data assets, and two-sided network effects spanning the US property and casualty insurance landscape. Originating as the non-profit Insurance Services Office (ISO), Verisk compiles, verifies, and standardizes multi-decade loss histories from hundreds of contributing insurers, producing the authoritative actuarial loss costs and standardized policy forms utilized by state insurance commissioners to evaluate rate adequacy and solvency. Because an individual insurance company possesses only its own historical underwriting sample, no single carrier can replicate Verisk's industry-wide actuarial baseline, establishing an entrenched data monopoly.
These proprietary data repositories are integrated directly into carrier core policy administration, rating engines, and claims workflows, generating renewal rates consistently exceeding 95%. Switching away from Verisk's underwriting forms or advisory rate filings would entail massive operational disruption, multi-million-dollar re-platforming investments, and severe regulatory filing delays across state insurance departments. Consequently, customer diversification is strong: no single customer accounts for more than approximately 3% of revenues, while the top 50 carriers account for 42% of revenue, insulating Verisk from enterprise hold-up risk.
Verisk's software delivery economics translate this data advantage into superior structural margins. Once core data sets and statistical models are compiled, delivering risk scoring, catastrophe analytics, or automated claims validation to an incremental insurer incurs negligible marginal cost. This dynamic allowed Verisk to achieve a GAAP operating margin of 43.74% in FY2025 ($1,343.9M on $3,072.7M revenue,), dwarfing the broader service industry average operating margin of 12.30% and peer CPRT at 32.01%. Modest capital spending of $244.1M (7.94% of revenue) converts high operating margins into extraordinary free cash flow of $1,191.9M, reinforcing durable economic profit generation over the extended multi-stage fade horizon.
Verisk generates substantial economic profits, earning a return on invested capital of 25.60% that provides an economic spread of +1,784 bps above its computed WACC of 7.76% and +1,718 bps above its moderate cost of equity of 8.42%. This superior economic return is underpinned by FY2025 operating income of $1,343.9M on $3,072.7M in revenue, producing a 43.74% operating margin,. High capital efficiency with capital expenditures at 7.94% of revenue ($244.1M in FY2025) ensures that incremental revenue converts almost entirely into economic value.26
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($152.32). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $1.0B after modeled reinvestment of $70.3M, with terminal value at 82.7% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The modal path reflects steady compounding anchored by Verisk's irreplaceable consortium data network and standard advisory loss filings. Core subscription revenues expand at a consistent mid-single-digit rate, operating margins remain stable near historical levels, and capital-light operations support steady share repurchases alongside dividend payments. This path yields Fair value of $152.32 with an estimated probability of 60.0% and an implied return of -9.7% against $168.68.
If subscription revenue growth accelerates driven by higher carrier uptake of automated claims solutions and expanded catastrophe telemetry, operating leverage would expand margins toward Potential value $170.57, closing the negative return gap from $168.68.
When performance tracks the expected trajectory, the premium of $168.68 above Fair value $152.32 persists, keeping implied return at -9.7% and validating the current rating stance.
A deceleration in core subscription revenue accompanied by margin compression would confirm carrier pricing resistance or license consolidation, widening the downside from $168.68 relative to Fair value $152.32.
Earnings quality is exceptionally strong, characterized by operating cash flows that substantially exceed reported GAAP net income due to non-cash depreciation and low working capital friction. Revenue is overwhelmingly composed of recurring multi-year subscription agreements embedded in regulatory workflows, resulting in minimal receivables volatility and highly predictable margin conversion.
Consensus estimate revisions following the latest quarterly earnings release have remained steady across annual and quarterly horizons. The post-event cohort confirms stable subscription demand, disciplined pricing retention, and consistent operating cost execution across FY2026 and FY2027 without material estimate revisions.
Sustained subscription expansion demonstrates pricing power across insurance carriers, directly supporting operating leverage and terminal value.
Verisk exhibits top-tier cash generation quality. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $1,436.0M, converting at 158.1% of GAAP net income ($908.3M). Capital expenditures were modest at $244.1M (7.94% of revenue), with roughly 70% representing capitalized software development. Free cash flow totaled $1,191.9M (131.2% of net income). Stock-based compensation was limited to $54.2M, ensuring high cash earnings purity and minimal share dilution.56
Verisk demonstrates disciplined, shareholder-friendly capital allocation centered on returning substantial via share repurchases and dividends. In FY2025, the company deployed $624.0M to share buybacks and paid $251.1M in dividends, having previously executed $1,005.0M in buybacks in FY2024 and $2,762.3M in FY2023. These buybacks reduced from 140,082,773 diluted average in FY2025 to 131,021,840 as of October 2026. Liquidity remains solid with $2,178.2M in cash and , providing ample cushion against total debt of $4,617.1M and near-term maturities of $1,511.2M.
ROIC is stable and highly value-accretive at 25.60%, driven by mature software scalability and modest reinvestment rates. The company's capital-light data consortium generates superior unit economics that support consistent economic profit compounding across market cycles.
ROIC of 25.60% generates a substantial positive economic spread of +1,784 bps above the computed WACC of 7.76% and +1,718 bps above the moderate cost of equity of 8.42%, confirming exceptional economic profit generation.
Operating cash flow was $1,436.0M on of $908.3M in FY2025, generating $1,191.9M of after of $244.1M.
| Omzet | US$ 3.072.700.000 |
|---|---|
| Kostprijs van de omzet | US$ 1.004.400.000 |
| Brutowinst | US$ 2.068.300.000 |
| Bedrijfskosten | US$ 724.400.000 |
| Bedrijfsresultaat | US$ 1.343.900.000 |
| Niet-operationele posten en belastingen | US$ -435.600.000 |
| Nettowinst | US$ 908.300.000 |
| Totale activa | US$ 6.195.500.000 |
|---|---|
| Liquide middelen | US$ 2.178.200.000 |
| Vlottende activa | US$ 2.765.400.000 |
| Totale verplichtingen | US$ 5.885.700.000 |
| Kortlopende verplichtingen | US$ 2.300.300.000 |
| Eigen vermogen | US$ 309.800.000 |
| Nettowinst | US$ 908.300.000 |
|---|---|
| Operationele instroom | US$ 1.436.000.000 |
| Afschrijvingen en amortisatie | US$ 259.200.000 |
| Aandelenbeloning | US$ 54.200.000 |
| Overige operationele aanpassingen | US$ 214.300.000 |
| Operationele kasstroom | US$ 1.436.000.000 |
| Beschikbare liquide middelen | US$ 2.536.300.000 |
| Beginstand liquide middelen | US$ 291.200.000 |
| Financieringsinstroom | US$ 795.200.000 |
| Wisselkoerseffect | US$ 13.900.000 |
| Investeringsuitstroom | US$ 358.100.000 |
| Investeringen | US$ 244.100.000 |
| Overige investeringsactiviteiten | US$ 114.000.000 |
| Eindstand liquide middelen | US$ 2.178.200.000 |
| Investeringskasstroom | US$ -358.100.000 |
| Financieringskasstroom | US$ 795.200.000 |
Bron: SEC EDGAR · Ingediend 2026-02-18 · SEC EDGAR
| Omzet per regio | Omzet | Aandeel | j-o-j |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | US$ 2,5 mld. | 82,1% | 5,7% |
| Other | US$ 300,3 mln. | 9,8% | 6,8% |
| United Kingdom | US$ 250,1 mln. | 8,1% | 16,7% |
Financiële momentopname gebruikt in de analyse van 2026-10-07.
| Periode | Omzet | EBITDA | Nettowinst | Operationele kasstroom | Vrije kasstroom | Investeringen | Afschrijvingen en amortisatie | Aandelenbeloning | Aandeleninkoop | Betaalde dividenden | Netto schuldemissie | Investeringskasstroom | Financieringskasstroom | Beginstand liquide middelen | Eindstand liquide middelen | Kas en beleggingen | Totale schuld | Operationele marge | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC-spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | US$ 2 mld. | US$ 998,3 mln. | US$ 591,2 mln. | US$ 577,5 mln. | US$ 421 mln. | US$ 156,5 mln. | US$ 126,2 mln. | US$ 30 mln. | US$ 326,8 mln. | US$ 163,5 mln. | — | US$ 493,2 mln. | -US$ 1,1 mld. | — | US$ 135,1 mln. | US$ 138,5 mln. | US$ 2,3 mld. | 38,5% | — | 4,8% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | US$ 2,1 mld. | US$ 1 mld. | US$ 555,1 mln. | US$ 743,5 mln. | US$ 560 mln. | US$ 183,5 mln. | US$ 135,6 mln. | US$ 31,8 mln. | US$ 276,3 mln. | US$ 0 | — | -US$ 1,1 mld. | US$ 362,5 mln. | US$ 135,1 mln. | US$ 142,3 mln. | US$ 146,1 mln. | US$ 3 mld. | 37,3% | — | 4,7% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | US$ 2,4 mld. | US$ 1,1 mld. | US$ 598,7 mln. | US$ 934,4 mln. | US$ 703,4 mln. | US$ 231 mln. | US$ 165,3 mln. | US$ 38,5 mln. | US$ 438,6 mln. | US$ 0 | — | -US$ 265,4 mln. | -US$ 669,8 mln. | US$ 142,3 mln. | US$ 139,5 mln. | US$ 142,8 mln. | US$ 2,7 mld. | 34,8% | — | 5,2% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | US$ 2,6 mld. | US$ 1 mld. | US$ 449,9 mln. | US$ 956,3 mln. | US$ 739,5 mln. | US$ 216,8 mln. | US$ 185,7 mln. | US$ 42,7 mln. | US$ 300 mln. | US$ 163,5 mln. | — | -US$ 927,9 mln. | US$ 10,9 mln. | US$ 139,5 mln. | US$ 184,6 mln. | US$ 188,2 mln. | US$ 3,2 mld. | 26,7% | — | 4,5% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | US$ 2,3 mld. | US$ 1,3 mld. | US$ 712,7 mln. | US$ 1,1 mld. | US$ 821,4 mln. | US$ 246,8 mln. | US$ 192,2 mln. | US$ 47,6 mln. | US$ 348,8 mln. | US$ 175,8 mln. | — | -US$ 595,8 mln. | -US$ 445,2 mln. | US$ 184,6 mln. | US$ 218,8 mln. | US$ 222,9 mln. | US$ 3,2 mld. | 42,1% | — | 3,8% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | US$ 2,5 mld. | US$ 1,3 mld. | US$ 666,2 mln. | US$ 1,2 mld. | US$ 887,3 mln. | US$ 268,4 mln. | US$ 206,9 mln. | US$ 55,7 mln. | US$ 475 mln. | US$ 188,2 mln. | — | -US$ 592 mln. | -US$ 498,9 mln. | US$ 218,8 mln. | US$ 280,3 mln. | US$ 116,9 mln. | US$ 3,3 mld. | 37,0% | — | 4,4% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | US$ 2,5 mld. | US$ 1,7 mld. | US$ 953,9 mln. | US$ 1,1 mld. | US$ 784,3 mln. | US$ 274,7 mln. | US$ 197,1 mln. | US$ 56,5 mln. | US$ 1,7 mld. | US$ 195,2 mln. | US$ 430 mln. | US$ 301,4 mln. | -US$ 1,3 mld. | US$ 280,3 mln. | US$ 292,7 mln. | US$ 116,5 mln. | US$ 3,7 mld. | 56,3% | — | 6,9% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | US$ 2,7 mld. | US$ 1,4 mld. | US$ 614,6 mln. | US$ 1,1 mld. | US$ 830,7 mln. | US$ 230 mln. | US$ 206,8 mln. | US$ 54 mln. | US$ 2,8 mld. | US$ 196,8 mln. | -US$ 894,8 mln. | US$ 2,7 mld. | -US$ 3,8 mld. | US$ 292,7 mln. | US$ 302,7 mln. | US$ 303,9 mln. | US$ 2,9 mld. | 42,2% | — | 7,0% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | US$ 2,9 mld. | US$ 1,7 mld. | US$ 958,2 mln. | US$ 1,1 mld. | US$ 920,1 mln. | US$ 223,9 mln. | US$ 233,6 mln. | US$ 47,9 mln. | US$ 1 mld. | US$ 221,3 mln. | US$ 590,2 mln. | -US$ 124,8 mln. | -US$ 1 mld. | US$ 302,7 mln. | US$ 291,2 mln. | US$ 292,4 mln. | US$ 3,1 mld. | 43,5% | — | 7,7% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | US$ 3,1 mld. | US$ 1,7 mld. | US$ 908,3 mln. | US$ 1,4 mld. | US$ 1,2 mld. | US$ 244,1 mln. | US$ 259,2 mln. | US$ 54,2 mln. | US$ 624 mln. | US$ 251,1 mln. | US$ 1,7 mld. | -US$ 358,1 mln. | US$ 795,2 mln. | US$ 291,2 mln. | US$ 2,2 mld. | US$ 2,2 mld. | US$ 4,8 mld. | 43,7% | — | 7,0% | — |
Verisk Analytics Inc. (VRSK) trades at 20.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 16.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 16.9x compares with a peer median of 13.8x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Xylem Inc., Copart Inc., Dover Corporation and Ingersoll Rand Inc., as of 2026-10-07.
Damodaran Business & Consumer Services industry benchmarks indicate a low capital intensity of 3.4% capex-to-revenue and 0.65 capex-to-depreciation, while Verisk's capital expenditures represent 7.94% of revenue ($244.1M on $3,072.7M revenue in FY2025,). Because capacity, supply, and lead-time metrics are not reported for specialized insurance data consortiums, the industry cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.6
During an insurance hard market or expansionary underwriting cycle, property and casualty carriers deploy surplus capital toward modernizing core underwriting systems, automating claims workflows, and licensing advanced catastrophe risk models. Premium rate increases across primary insurance lines expand carrier fee tolerance, driving cross-selling of predictive telemetry, satellite property data, and fraud detection modules at high incremental margins.
A cyclical downturn in property and casualty commercial lines, severe catastrophe loss years, or prolonged carrier underwriting losses can prompt insurers to curtail external IT budgets, freeze non-essential software rollouts, and push back against annual price increases. Furthermore, wave-driven carrier consolidation could reduce the total number of licensed user seats and enhance client bargaining power against non-statutory data add-ons.
Verisk is uniquely positioned as the indispensable core data utility for the US property and casualty insurance market. While cyclically exposed industrial peers (CPRT, DOV, IR, XYL) navigate manufacturing or salvage volume fluctuations, Verisk's revenues are primarily recurring subscriptions driven by statutory regulatory filing requirements and mandatory actuarial loss cost tables. This positioning shields Verisk from traditional industrial inventory and capacity cycles.
Verisk trades at $168.68, representing a 10.7% premium over the house Fair value of $152.32 (-9.7% implied return). While business quality and the wide economic moat are exceptional, current market valuation leaves no margin of safety, dictating an underweight or reduced portfolio allocation under the house reduce rating.4
Risk management under the reduce rating prioritizes capital preservation against valuation multiple compression. While Verisk's operating franchise is protected by insurmountable data switching costs and zero-marginal-cost software economics, the stock trades at a premium forward multiple (20.08x) compared to broader peers CPRT (15.21x), DOV (16.21x), and XYL (16.35x). Portfolio managers holding existing long positions should implement disciplined stop-loss and trailing-stop controls, monitoring quarterly subscription revenue growth and debt refinancing costs closely.
Verisk trades at a share price of $168.68 on October 7, 2026, representing a 10.7% premium over our Fair value of $152.32 and offering an implied return of negative 9.7%. With no margin of safety and a forward P/E of 20.08x exceeding industrial peers (peer median 16.28x), value investors should avoid initiating positions until market prices trade below intrinsic value.34
Verisk commands a premier Wide economic moat with ROIC of 25.60% exceeding its WACC of 7.76% by +1,784 bps. Free cash flow conversion of 131.2% in FY2025 ($1,191.9M) supports steady share buybacks. Long-term compounders may hold core positions given high customer renewal rates, but new capital allocation should be paused.256
Trading within 1.1% of our Potential value of $170.57 leaves minimal upside, while upcoming debt refinancing of $1,511.2M at prevailing debt yields of 5.96% threatens to elevate interest expenses. Tactical managers should trim exposure to redeploy capital into higher-yielding opportunities.24
We recommend a Reduce action on Verisk Analytics. At the October 7, 2026 share price of $168.68, shares trade at a 10.7% premium over our Fair value of $152.32, generating an implied return of negative 9.7%. Although the business possesses an exceptional Wide economic moat supported by its irreplaceable insurance data consortium, prevailing valuation leaves investors with an unfavorable risk-reward profile.4
While Verisk delivers enviable cash conversion—generating $1,191.9M of free cash flow in FY2025 on $908.3M of net income —the stock's forward P/E multiple of 20.08x sits well above peer medians. Investors should trim exposure and await a pullback toward Fair value before deploying fresh capital.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
The top 50 insurance customers account for 42% of revenue. Mergers among tier-1 carriers could lead to software license consolidation, in-sourcing of claims analytics, and pushback against annual ISO fee escalators, compressing operating margin by >300 bps below the FY2025 level of 43.74% to below 40.5%.67
Verisk holds $4,617.1M in total debt with $1,511.2M maturing in the near term against current cash of $2,178.2M. With pre-tax cost of debt at 5.96% and risk-free rate at 5.31%, refinancing at elevated credit spreads coupled with rising equity risk premium lifts discount rates by +200 bps over computed WACC of 7.76%.246
Signals structural SG&A cost inflation, elevated compliance costs, or adverse analytics mix, triggering a downgrade in terminal margin assumptions.
Huidig:43.74% in FY2025 ($1,343.9M operating income on $3,072.7M revenue,)
Waarschuwing als< 42.0% for a full fiscal year
Indicates working capital deterioration, capitalized software build-up, or collection delays from consolidating carriers, reducing capital available for share buybacks.
Huidig:131.2% in FY2025 ($1,191.9M free cash flow on $908.3M GAAP net income,)
Waarschuwing als< 100.0% over a full fiscal year
Points to carrier consolidation leading to license cancellations and contract renegotiations in core underwriting modules.
Huidig:42.0% in FY2025
Waarschuwing als< 38.0% accompanied by annual contract value churn > 5.0%
Refinancing of $1,511.2M in near-term maturities against $4,617.1M total debt at elevated yields would increase annual interest expense, curtailing discretionary share buybacks.
Huidig:5.96% pre-tax cost of debt
Waarschuwing als> 7.50% on upcoming refinancing tranches
| Regulatory Scrutiny on Underwriting Data Aggregation and Algorithmic Rating Standards | medium | 2-3 years | Verisk's core actuarial database operates under formal ISO advisory loss cost filings and statutory frameworks approved by state insurance regulators, functioning as a neutral regulatory benchmark rather than an unvetted commercial algorithm.6 |
| Near-Term Debt Refinancing Pressure at Higher Prevailing Interest Rates | low | 12-18 months | Substantial liquid cash reserves of $2,178.2M and robust annual free cash flow of $1,191.9M provide ample self-funding capability to address debt maturities without forced dilutive capital raises.56 |
Under the moderate discount rate, US$ 29,01 comes from forecast-period earnings and US$ 126 from the long-term value, totaling US$ 155.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (US$ 33,77) plus discounted terminal value (US$ 162) minus signed per current share (US$ 19,80) equals the US$ 176 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
In the upside path, accelerated carrier migration to automated catastrophe modeling, real-time property telemetry, and generative artificial intelligence claims processing expands organic subscription growth. Operating leverage lifts operating margins as fixed consortium data costs are amortized over larger software volumes, while robust free cash flow fuels net share retirement. Under this path, the projected valuation reaches $170.57 with an estimated probability of 15.0% and an implied return of 1.1% relative to $168.68.
Operating profitability reveals whether automated software workflows deliver operating leverage or if engineering and compliance investments inflate operating costs.
Cash flow generation determines discretionary capacity for ongoing share repurchases after meeting capital expenditure needs.
Client retention across tier-one carriers dictates subscription stability and prevents enterprise bargaining leverage from eroding annual pricing escalators.
Refinancing near-term notes at higher prevailing yields increases interest expense and could reduce cash allocated to share repurchases.
| $3.64B |
| $3.84B |
| $4.04B |
| Revenue growth | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% |
| Operating margin | 43.8% | 44.0% | 44.2% | 44.4% | 44.5% |
| Operating income | $1.41B | $1.51B | $1.61B | $1.71B | $1.80B |
| Tax rate | 23.3% | 23.3% | 23.3% | 23.3% | 23.3% |
| NOPAT | $1.08B | $1.16B | $1.23B | $1.31B | $1.38B |
| Reinvestment | $70.28M | $81.17M | $92.60M | $104.68M | $110.16M |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Free cash flow to firm | $1.01B | $1.08B | $1.14B | $1.20B | $1.27B |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
Operating income of $1,343.9M on $3,072.7M revenue yielded a 43.74% operating margin in FY2025,, compared to the Damodaran industry average of 12.30% and peer CPRT at 32.01%.
Scalable data infrastructure delivers significant operating leverage, protecting profitability through economic downturns.
Actual shares outstanding dropped to 131,021,840 as of October 2026 from 140,082,773 diluted average shares in FY2025, representing a 6.47% share count reduction.
Accretive buybacks drive diluted EPS compounding approximately 200 bps faster than net income growth.
| Marge |
|---|
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics Inc. | $22.1B | 20.1x | 7.0x | 16.9x | 437.9% | — |
| XYL | Xylem Inc. | $23.8B | 16.4x | 2.6x | 13.4x | 9.2% | 17.0% |
| CPRT | Copart Inc. | $24.7B | 15.2x | 5.3x | 11.0x | 16.2% | 32.0% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | $25.4B | 16.2x | 3.0x | 14.3x | 14.9% | 18.7% |
| IR | Ingersoll Rand Inc. | $30.1B | 19.8x | 3.8x | 17.1x | 9.5% | 16.9% |
| Tier-1 Insurer Industry Consolidation and Vendor Rationalization | neutral | Mergers among large insurers increase bargaining power, though Verisk's diversification (top 50 customers at 42% of revenue, no single client > 3%) mitigates single-firm hold-up risk. |
| Aggressive Buy Consideration | Represents the conservative lower bound of intrinsic valuation, offering high asymmetry and downside protection. |
| Free cash flow to net income conversion ratio | < 100.0% over a full fiscal year | Demote owner earnings and FCFF model contributions, adjusting modeled reinvestment upward. |
| Top 50 customer revenue concentration and churn | Concentration falling below 38% accompanied by annual contract churn > 5% | Re-evaluate carrier client retention assumptions and lower explicit growth rates. |
| Weighted average cost of new debt issuances | Refinancing debt coupon exceeding 7.50% on near-term maturities | Increase modeled discount rate and interest expense projections across valuation models. |
