Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)

NYSE: AJG · USD

$260

+1.24 (+0.5%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-02

Our latest published analysis: AJG rated Buy

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s published Buy conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$280 / share

Potential value

$351 / share

Upside to FV

+20.9%

from $260

Moat

7.2/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$59.4B
Revenue (ttm)	15.1B
Net income (ttm)	1.6B
EPS (ttm)	$6.03
Shares out	256.3M
P/E (trailing)	43.2x
P/E (forward)	16.3x
Dividend	$2.80 (1.07%)
Volume	1,593,244
Beta	0.55

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 15.1B
Net income (ttm): 1.6B
EPS (ttm): $6.03
P/E (trailing): 43.2x
P/E (forward): 16.3x
Market cap: $59.4B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$8.21B	$8.55B	$10.07B	$11.56B	$13.94B	+14.2%
Gross profit	$2.98B	$3.60B	$4.25B	$4.88B	$7.63B	+26.6%
Operating income	$1.20B	$1.58B	$1.48B	$2.26B	$2.54B	+20.6%
Net income	$906.8M	$1.11B	$970.0M	$1.46B	$1.49B	+13.3%
EPS (diluted)	$4.37	$5.19	$4.42	$6.50	$5.74	+7.1%
EBITDA	$2.04B	$2.35B	$2.18B	$3.10B	$3.66B	+15.8%
R&D	$0	$0	$0	—	—	+0.0%
SG&A	$3.93B	$4.80B	$5.68B	$6.52B	$7.00B	+15.5%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
ACGL	Arch Capital Group Ltd.	34.8B	8.3x	1.8x	15.9%	+15.1%	+18.7%	Zdecydowanie kupuj
AIG	American International Group Inc.	41.7B	14.7x	1.6x	7.7%	-9.6%	+2.8%	Zdecydowanie kupuj
AIZ	Assurant, Inc.	14.1B	13.6x	1.0x	14.4%	+6.6%	+36.2%	Trzymaj
ALL	The Allstate Corporation	63.2B	5.0x	0.9x	32.6%	+8.5%	+31.8%	Zdecydowanie kupuj
AMP	Ameriprise Financial, Inc.	43.1B	11.8x	2.2x	43.0%	+8.9%	+1.1%	Kupuj
AON	Aon plc	66.8B	17.2x	3.8x	16.3%	+7.9%	-5.5%	Kupuj

Base and Bull scenarios

Base60%

Price target

$280.32

+20.9% from spot

In the Base case, Arthur J. Gallagher executes in line with management guidance and consensus expectations. Full-year 2026 organic revenue growth reaches 6.0%, combining 5.5% brokerage growth and 9.0% Risk Management growth. Core brokerage operating margins expand by 40 to 60 basis points as the centralized IT chassis standardizes workflows. FY2027 diluted EPS reaches consensus of $14.89, supported by steady client retention in middle-market retail brokerage and expanding wholesale scale in the UK ($2,477M in FY2025 revenue).

Consolidated organic revenue growth delivers 6.0% in FY2026 with brokerage at 5.5% and risk management at 9.0%
Brokerage underlying operating margin expands 40 to 60 basis points annually
Consolidated revenue reaches consensus of $16,726M in FY2026 and $18,253M in FY2027
Diluted EPS compounds to consensus expectations of $14.89 in FY2027
Terminal valuation multiple anchors near long-term historical forward earnings multiples alongside sustainable terminal growth

Bull20%

Price target

$351.13

+51.5% from spot

In the Bull case, heightened structural risk complexity across AI infrastructure, data centers, supply chain bottlenecks, and geopolitical perils accelerates corporate insurance demand. Brokerage organic revenue growth exceeds 7.0% while Risk Management expands double digits (>10.0%). Operational leverage expands underlying margins by more than 80 basis points, outpacing the 40 to 60 basis points guidance and closing the gap toward peer AON's 23.46% operating margin. Strong cash generation accelerates debt deleveraging, lowering interest costs and supporting fair value toward $351.13.

Commercial lines pricing remains firmer for longer across property and casualty lines
Brokerage organic revenue growth accelerates to 7.0%+ and Risk Management growth exceeds 10.0%
Operating leverage drives underlying brokerage margin expansion of 80+ bps, well above guided range
Consolidated operating margins narrow the gap toward peer AON's 23.46%
Strong free cash flow accelerates debt deleveraging, lowering interest costs and supporting fair value toward $351.13

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($280.32). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
6.6%	$305	$314	$324	$335	$349
7.1%	$285	$292	$300	$309	$319
7.6%	$268	$274	$280	$287	$295
8.1%	$254	$259	$264	$270	$276
8.6%	$242	$246	$250	$255	$260

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E16.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E37.8

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE6.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC6.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All AJG indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

284

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 284 of 284 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000354190
Company name	Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	363576109
Earnings date	2026-10-29
Earnings time	amc
Employees	67,456
Employees change	11,963
Employees growth	21.56%
Enterprise value	$79.4B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1927
In index	SP500
Industry	Insurance Brokers
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US3635761097
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-17
Last earnings date	2026-07-30
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2001-01-19
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$66.7B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-10-29
Options	Yes
Price	$260.25
Price currency	USD
Sector	Financials
SIC code	6411
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	AJG
U.S. state	Illinois
Website	https://www.ajg.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	21.67x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	33.32x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	47.22x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	42.74x
Earnings yield	2.32%
EV/Earnings	50.65x
EV/EBIT	26.46x
EV/EBITDA	18.52x
EV/FCF	34.75x
EV/Sales	5.26x
FCF / EV yield	2.88%
FCF yield	3.43%
Forward EV/Sales	4.59x
Forward P/E	18.6x
Forward P/S	3.86x
Graham number	112.01634
Graham upside	-56.95%
Industry forward P/E	16.79x
Industry P/E	27.95x
Lynch fair value	$72.11
Lynch upside	-72.28%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	32.39x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	30x
P/B ratio	2.8x
P/E ratio	43.18x
P/FCF ratio	29.19x
P/OCF ratio	27.23x
P/S ratio	4.41x
PEG ratio	1.24x
Price/EBITDA ratio	15.55x
Sector forward P/E	13.61x
Sector P/E	15.68x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	19.86%
EBITDA margin	28.38%
Effective tax rate	20.64%
FCF margin	15.12%
Gross margin	43.19%
Operating margin	19.86%
Pretax margin	13.12%
Profit margin	10.38%
Profit per employee	$23,245
Profitable quarters	10
Profitable years	34
Revenue per employee	$223,983
ROA	2.32%
ROA (5Y)	2.47%
ROCE	7.77%
ROE	6.72%
ROE (5Y)	10.31%
ROIC	6.6%
ROIC (5Y)	8.6%
SBC / revenue	1.5%
Tax / revenue	2.71%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	-10.51%
EPS growth (Q)	-10.71%
EPS growth (QoQ)	-60.44%
EPS growth 10Y	10.57%
EPS growth 3Y	5.49%
EPS growth 5Y	6.13%
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	15.77%
FCF growth 3Y	14.8%
FCF growth 5Y	7.47%
Gross profit growth	33.01%
Gross profit growth (Q)	34.32%
Gross profit growth 3Y	19.16%
Gross profit growth 5Y	19.2%
Net income growth	-4.58%
Net income growth (Q)	-11.96%
Net income growth (QoQ)	-60.58%
Net income growth 3Y	12.13%
Net income growth 5Y	11.97%
Net income growth years	2
OCF growth	15.4%
OCF growth (QoQ)	-98.96%
OCF growth 10Y	13.45%
OCF growth 3Y	13.15%
OCF growth 5Y	7.65%
Operating income growth	32.26%
Operating income growth (Q)	39.96%
Operating income growth 3Y	14.38%
Operating income growth 5Y	18.06%
Revenue growth	30.78%
Revenue growth (Q)	30.92%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	-16.7%
Revenue growth 10Y	10.78%
Revenue growth 3Y	19.58%
Revenue growth 5Y	15.26%
Revenue growth quarters	15
Revenue growth years	5

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-164M
Depreciation and amortization	$1.3B
EBIT	$3B
EBITDA	$4.3B
EPS	$6.03
FCF per share	$8.91
Financing cash flow	$924M
Free cash flow	$2.3B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$2.1B
Gross profit	$6.5B
Income taxes	$409M
Investing cash flow	$-14.8B
Net borrowing	$688M
Net cash flow	$-11.5B
Net income	$1.6B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$2.2B
Operating income	$3B
Revenue	$15.1B
Stock-based compensation	$226M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	1.12
Book value per share	$92.54
Debt / EBITDA	3.13
Debt / equity	0.59
Debt / FCF	6.17
Goodwill	$23B
Interest coverage	4.62
Long-term assets	$36.4B
Long-term liabilities	$14.9B
Net cash (debt)	$-12.7B
Net cash / market cap	-19.07%
Net debt / EBITDA	2.97
Net debt / equity	0.54
Net debt / FCF	5.57
Piotroski F-Score	7
Property, plant and equipment	$1.3B
Shareholders' equity	$23.7B
Tangible book value	$-9.5B
Tangible book value per share	$-37.15
Total assets	$81.8B
Total cash	$1.4B
Total debt	$14.1B
Total liabilities	$58.1B
WACC	6.63%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.19
Current assets	$45.5B
Current liabilities	$43.2B
Current ratio	1.05
Net working capital	$2.5B
Quick ratio	0.17
Working capital	$2.3B
Working capital turnover	1.72

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	-6.59%
Dividend growth	7.84%
Dividend growth (10Y)	6.18%
Dividend growth (3Y)	8.38%
Dividend growth (5Y)	7.79%
Dividend growth years	15
Dividend payment date	2026-09-18
Dividend payment years	42
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$2.80
Dividend yield	1.08%
Ex-dividend date	2026-09-08
FCF payout ratio	31.41%
Last dividend	$0.70
Payout ratio	46.46%
Shareholder yield	-5.51%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	440.62%
10Y return CAGR	20.24%
10Y total return	531.73%
150-day SMA	$233.17
15Y price change	714.66%
15Y return CAGR	17.53%
15Y total return	1,027.79%
1D price change	0.48%
1M price change	12.52%
1M total return	12.52%
1W price change	0.3%
1W total return	0.3%
1Y price change	-6.8%
1Y return CAGR	-5.7%
1Y total return	-5.7%
20-day SMA	$245.66
200-day SMA	$231.90
20Y price change	837.08%
20Y return CAGR	15.09%
20Y total return	1,562.96%
3M price change	2.64%
3M total return	2.91%
3Y price change	13.93%
3Y return CAGR	5.45%
3Y total return	17.27%
50-day SMA	$247.82
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$279.00
52-week high date	2025-10-28
52-week low	$190.75
52-week low date	2026-05-13
5Y price change	60.32%
5Y return CAGR	11.04%
5Y total return	68.82%
6M price change	20.92%
6M total return	21.64%
All-time high	$351.23
All-time high date	2025-06-03
All-time low	$3.47
All-time low date	1988-02-11
Average true range (ATR)	$6.94
Average volume	1.4M
Beta (1Y)	0.12
Beta (2Y)	0.37
Beta (5Y)	0.55
Change from 52-week high	-6.72%
Change from 52-week low	36.44%
Change from all-time high	-25.96%
Change from all-time low	7,396.11%
Change from open	0.49%
Day's gap	-0.01%
Dollar volume	$414.6M
High price	$262.15
Low price	$258.95
Monthly RSI	51.42
Open price	$258.99
Position in 52-week range	40.63%
Premarket change	-0.85%
Premarket close	$259.01
Premarket price	$256.80
Previous close	$259.01
Price vs 150-day SMA	11.52%
Price vs 20-day SMA	5.85%
Price vs 200-day SMA	12.14%
Price vs 50-day SMA	4.93%
Relative volume	1.11
RSI	60.06
Sharpe ratio	-0.15
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.18
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.39
Sortino ratio	-0.03
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.47
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.77
Volume	1.6M
Weekly RSI	57.28
YTD price change	0.48%
YTD total return	1.4%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	253.6M
Float percentage	98.91%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0.42%
Shares change (YoY)	6.59%
Shares held by insiders	0.97%
Shares held by institutions	94.08%
Shares outstanding	256.3M
Short % of float	3.25%
Short % of shares	3.21%
Short ratio	5.6 days

Deeper analysis on AJG

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this AJG report

What is the latest published AJG stock rating?

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is shown with Buy in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-02. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full AJG analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-02, lives at /stocks/AJG/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for AJG?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-02 gives AJG a fair value of USD 280 and a potential value of USD 351. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the AJG page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-02). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

BuyAJG · Fair value $280+20.9%

Read full analysis →

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)

Our latest published analysis: AJG rated Buy

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · AJG

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All AJG indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on AJG

Frequently asked questions

Historia rekomendacji

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	7.5
Management	8.5
Balance Sheet	6.0
Profitability	5.5
Revenue Growth	9.0
Risk Assessment	7.5
Competitive Moat	7.2
Earnings Quality	6.0
Capital Efficiency	2.5