Opcjonalna analityka produktu
Za zgodą użytkownika stosujemy ograniczoną analitykę chroniącą prywatność, aby zrozumieć, które ścieżki badawcze działają. Nie używamy trackerów reklamowych ani nagrywania sesji. Ten wybór można zmienić w Preferencjach. Przeczytaj Politykę prywatności.
Post-event FY2026 and FY2027 revenue and earnings estimates rose.
Reported FY2027 revenue below $41.2 billion.
Sell. At the September 4 report-date price of $454.71, shares stand above Fair value of $312.07 and Potential value of $437.56.3
The main risk is that FY2027 revenue falls below $41.2 billion. That would weaken the expected demand acceleration and reduce later earnings and cash.1
The clearest upside is continued estimate delivery. FY2026 and FY2027 revenue and earnings forecasts rose after the August event, while FY2025 still produced positive operating and .
The cycle view is demand-led. Post-event FY2026 and FY2027 revenue estimates rose, supporting stronger equipment demand if customers complete planned spending.1
Sell because the report-date price exceeds both Fair value and Potential value.3
Sell because the report-date price exceeds both Fair value and Potential value.3
APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE manufactures systems to meet demand represented by order backlog and customer commitments. Backlog consisted of: (1) orders for which written authorizations have been accepted, or shipment has occurred but revenue has not been recognized; and (2) contractual service revenue and maintenance fees. The products and services offered by the AGS segment enhance those of the Semiconductor Systems segment, particularly in markets with demanding global service requirements. Competition in the AGS segment includes a diverse group of third-party service providers as well as customers that choose to perform their own service.
The Semiconductor Systems segment includes semiconductor capital equipment to enable materials engineering steps including etch, rapid thermal processing, deposition, chemical mechanical planarization, metrology and inspection, wafer packaging, and ion implantation.
The central downside is FY2027 revenue falling below the dated forecast range, followed by weaker margins or persistently high investment. Sales, earnings and free cash flow would then weaken before long-term assumptions matter.
Lower sales, weaker factory use and heavier reinvestment would reduce earnings and cash. Customer concentration could accelerate that path.
Customer repricing or weaker factory use pushes GAAP operating margin below 27% for two fiscal years, reducing profit and cash generated from each sales dollar.
Capex to depreciation stays above 3 times in FY2028. Higher reinvestment then absorbs cash that could otherwise support owner returns.
Pięć zdarzeń, które osłabiłyby naszą tezę inwestycyjną.
No qualifying structural advantage is established. FY2025 operating profit and operating cash flow are business outcomes, not proof of switching costs, installed-base lock-in or another durable moat.
KLAC, LRCX, ASML and TER are relevant semiconductor-equipment comparisons. Their growth and operating margins differ materially, so they are useful cross-checks rather than interchangeable businesses.
FY2025 operating profit and cash generation were strong, but those results do not establish a structural moat by themselves.5
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($312.07). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $7.2B after modeled reinvestment of $1.6B, with terminal value at 68.6% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The base-case forecast accelerates revenue through FY2027, then fades growth while holding operating profitability steady and carrying the stated reinvestment schedule.
Higher annual estimates would strengthen the near-term acceleration. Lower capital spending would also reduce pressure on free cash flow.
That outcome would preserve the near-term forecast path, but the report-date price still exceeds Fair value.
A lower FY2027 revenue or EPS base would weaken the later earnings and cash-flow paths used in valuation.
FY2025 operating cash exceeded reported profit, although capital spending rose from FY2024 and reduced free cash flow.45
FY2025 generated $7.96 billion of operating cash and $5.70 billion of free cash flow. Free cash flow was lower after $2.26 billion of capital spending, but these figures do not reconcile every difference.45
Diluted shares fell from 845 million in FY2023 to 808 million in FY2025. Continuation is not assumed while capital spending remains elevated.
The cited financial evidence supports strong operating profit and cash generation, but this section does not infer a return-on-capital trend from margins alone.
The weighted average cost of capital was 10.7967% on September 7, 2026. A like-for-like return-on-capital series is not used here.
FY2025 operating cash was $7.96 billion versus $7.00 billion of reported profit.
Near-term earnings are supported by cash, although capital spending reduced the amount left after investment.
Capex increased from $1.19 billion in FY2024 to $2.26 billion in FY2025.
The payoff and normalization timing remain central to future free cash flow.
| Przychody | 28 368 000 000 USD |
|---|---|
| Koszt sprzedaży | 14 560 000 000 USD |
| Zysk brutto | 13 808 000 000 USD |
| Koszty operacyjne | 5 519 000 000 USD |
| Zysk operacyjny | 8 289 000 000 USD |
| Pozycje pozaoperacyjne i podatki | -1 291 000 000 USD |
| Zysk netto | 6 998 000 000 USD |
| Aktywa ogółem | 36 299 000 000 USD |
|---|---|
| Środki pieniężne | 7 241 000 000 USD |
| Aktywa obrotowe | 20 881 000 000 USD |
| Zobowiązania ogółem | 15 884 000 000 USD |
| Zobowiązania krótkoterminowe | 7 999 000 000 USD |
| Kapitał własny | 20 415 000 000 USD |
| Zysk netto | 6 998 000 000 USD |
|---|---|
| Wpływy operacyjne | 8 101 000 000 USD |
| Amortyzacja | 435 000 000 USD |
| Wynagrodzenie w akcjach | 668 000 000 USD |
| Operacyjne przepływy pieniężne | 7 958 000 000 USD |
| Wydatki operacyjne | 143 000 000 USD |
| Dostępne środki pieniężne | 16 071 000 000 USD |
| Środki pieniężne na początek | 8 113 000 000 USD |
| Wydatki inwestycyjne | 2 782 000 000 USD |
| Capex | 2 260 000 000 USD |
| Pozostała działalność inwestycyjna | 522 000 000 USD |
| Wydatki finansowe | 5 977 000 000 USD |
| Emisja długu netto | 292 000 000 USD |
| Skup akcji | 4 895 000 000 USD |
| Wypłacone dywidendy | 1 384 000 000 USD |
| Środki pieniężne na koniec | 7 312 000 000 USD |
| Przepływy inwestycyjne | -2 782 000 000 USD |
| Przepływy finansowe | -5 977 000 000 USD |
Źródło: SEC EDGAR · Złożono 2025-12-12 · SEC EDGAR
| Przychody według regionu | Przychody | Udział | r/r |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 8,5 mld USD | 30,1% | -15,7% |
| Taiwan | 6,9 mld USD | 24,2% | 71% |
| South Korea | 5,6 mld USD | 19,8% | 24,8% |
| United States | 3,1 mld USD | 10,8% | -19,8% |
| Japan | 2,3 mld USD | 8% | 5,5% |
| Southeast Asia | 1,1 mld USD | 3,8% | -5,7% |
| Europe | 962 mln USD | 3,4% | -33,3% |
Dane finansowe na określony moment użyte w analizie z 2026-09-07.
| Okres | Przychody | EBITDA | Zysk netto | Operacyjne przepływy pieniężne | Wolne przepływy pieniężne | Capex | Amortyzacja | Wynagrodzenie w akcjach | Skup akcji | Wypłacone dywidendy | Emisja długu netto | Przepływy inwestycyjne | Przepływy finansowe | Środki pieniężne na początek | Środki pieniężne na koniec | Gotówka i inwestycje | Zadłużenie ogółem | Marża operacyjna | ROIC | WACC | Spread ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-10-30 | 10,8 mld USD | 2,6 mld USD | 1,7 mld USD | 2,6 mld USD | 2,3 mld USD | 253 mln USD | 389 mln USD | 201 mln USD | 1,9 mld USD | 444 mln USD | — | -425 mln USD | -3,5 mld USD | — | 3,4 mld USD | 3,7 mld USD | 3,1 mld USD | 19,9% | — | 8,2% | — |
| 2017-10-29 | 14,7 mld USD | 4,4 mld USD | 3,5 mld USD | 3,8 mld USD | 3,4 mld USD | 345 mln USD | 407 mln USD | 220 mln USD | 1,2 mld USD | 430 mln USD | — | -2,5 mld USD | 341 mln USD | 3,4 mld USD | 5 mld USD | 7,3 mld USD | 5,3 mld USD | 26,8% | — | 8,6% | — |
| 2018-10-28 | 16,7 mld USD | 5,1 mld USD | 3 mld USD | 3,8 mld USD | 3,2 mld USD | 622 mln USD | 457 mln USD | 258 mln USD | 5,3 mld USD | 605 mln USD | — | 571 mln USD | -5,9 mld USD | 5 mld USD | 3,4 mld USD | 4 mld USD | 5,3 mld USD | 26,9% | — | 8,3% | — |
| 2019-10-27 | 14,6 mld USD | 3,9 mld USD | 2,7 mld USD | 3,2 mld USD | 2,8 mld USD | 441 mln USD | 363 mln USD | 263 mln USD | 2,4 mld USD | 771 mln USD | — | -443 mln USD | -3,1 mld USD | 3,4 mld USD | 3,1 mld USD | 3,6 mld USD | 5,3 mld USD | 22,9% | — | 7,4% | — |
| 2020-10-25 | 17,2 mld USD | 4,8 mld USD | 3,6 mld USD | 3,8 mld USD | 3,4 mld USD | 422 mln USD | 376 mln USD | 307 mln USD | 649 mln USD | 787 mln USD | — | -130 mln USD | -1,3 mld USD | 3,1 mld USD | 5,5 mld USD | 5,7 mld USD | 5,4 mld USD | 25,4% | — | 5,9% | — |
| 2021-10-31 | 23,1 mld USD | 7,4 mld USD | 5,9 mld USD | 5,4 mld USD | 4,8 mld USD | 668 mln USD | 394 mln USD | 346 mln USD | 3,8 mld USD | 838 mln USD | — | -1,2 mld USD | -4,6 mld USD | 5,5 mld USD | 5,1 mld USD | 5,5 mld USD | 5,5 mld USD | 29,9% | — | 7,0% | — |
| 2022-10-30 | 25,8 mld USD | 8,3 mld USD | 6,5 mld USD | 5,4 mld USD | 4,6 mld USD | 787 mln USD | 444 mln USD | 413 mln USD | 6,1 mld USD | 873 mln USD | 0 USD | -1,4 mld USD | -7 mld USD | 5,1 mld USD | 2,1 mld USD | 2,6 mld USD | 5,8 mld USD | 30,2% | — | 9,7% | — |
| 2023-10-29 | 26,5 mld USD | 8,5 mld USD | 6,9 mld USD | 8,7 mld USD | 7,6 mld USD | 1,1 mld USD | 515 mln USD | 490 mln USD | 2,2 mld USD | 975 mln USD | 84 mln USD | -1,5 mld USD | -3 mld USD | 2,1 mld USD | 6,2 mld USD | 6,9 mld USD | 6 mld USD | 28,9% | — | 11,0% | — |
| 2024-10-27 | 27,2 mld USD | 8,8 mld USD | 7,2 mld USD | 8,7 mld USD | 7,5 mld USD | 1,2 mld USD | 392 mln USD | 577 mln USD | 3,8 mld USD | 1,2 mld USD | 593 mln USD | -2,3 mld USD | -4,5 mld USD | 6,2 mld USD | 8,1 mld USD | 9,5 mld USD | 6,6 mld USD | 28,9% | — | 10,5% | — |
| 2025-10-26 | 28,4 mld USD | 9,7 mld USD | 7 mld USD | 8 mld USD | 5,7 mld USD | 2,3 mld USD | 435 mln USD | 668 mln USD | 4,9 mld USD | 1,4 mld USD | 292 mln USD | -2,8 mld USD | -6 mld USD | 8,1 mld USD | 7,3 mld USD | 8,6 mld USD | 7,1 mld USD | 29,2% | — | 11,3% | — |
Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) trades at 24.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 27.9x. Its EV/EBITDA of 33.9x compares with a peer median of 40.3x. The comparison uses 4 peers: KLA Corporation, Lam Research Corporation, ASML Holding N.V. and Teradyne Inc., as of 2026-09-02 to 2026-09-05.
Industry capex was 4.1% of revenue and 2 times depreciation, while Applied Materials raised FY2025 capex to $2.26 billion.5
Following the August 13, 2026 earnings filing, FY2026 and FY2027 revenue estimates rose; the selected observations were dated September 4, 2026. Stronger demand remains conditional on customer spending.
The same demand can fade if concentrated customers defer orders or regional weakness reaches end demand. The evidence does not quantify supply, capacity or lead-time conditions.
Positive FY2025 operating cash flow supports execution. Capex rose from $1.19 billion in FY2024 to $2.26 billion in FY2025, while two major customers increase delivery risk.56
No new position; reduce existing exposure. The report-date price exceeds Potential value, so reduce existing exposure. FY2027 revenue below $41.2 billion or capex-to-depreciation above 3 times in FY2028 would further weaken the case.13
Do not average down without first reassessing major-customer concentration. Customer One and Customer Two represented 19% and 15% of FY2025 revenue; the evidence does not establish that a loss, repricing or in-sourcing event occurred.
The report-date price is above Potential value, so near-term operating strength does not provide an adequate entry point.3
Reduce or exit rather than maintain full exposure. FY2027 execution and capital normalization remain unresolved.15
Upward revisions are constructive, but dated annual support ends at FY2027 and the later growth path fades.1
Sell because the September 4 report-date price of $454.71 exceeds Fair value of $312.07 and Potential value of $437.56.3
The business can still deliver strong FY2027 growth, but that operating upside is already more than reflected in the report-date valuation.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
The cost of equity rises above 12.9216% as investors demand more compensation for risk, lowering what they pay for future earnings.2
A sustained breach would reduce profit generated from each sales dollar and weaken the earnings and cash assumptions linked to the margin path.
Obecnie:FY2025 operating income was $8.29 billion on $28.37 billion of revenue.
Alarm, jeśliBelow 27% for two consecutive fiscal years.
A breach would show that the build did not normalize, extending reinvestment and reducing cash available after capital spending.
Obecnie:FY2025 capex was $2.26 billion and about 5.2 times depreciation.
Alarm, jeśliAbove 3 times in FY2028.
No such event is established by current disclosure. If reported, the affected revenue share would be at risk; the exact sales and margin effect remains unknown.
Obecnie:Customer One and Customer Two represented 19% and 15% of FY2025 revenue.
Alarm, jeśliConditional trigger: the next annual filing reports a customer loss, material repricing or in-sourcing event.
That disclosure would turn the attributed exposure into an observed operating change. The current disclosure establishes only the attributed revenue amount.
Obecnie:FY2025 Taiwan-attributed revenue was $6.86 billion.
Alarm, jeśliThe next annual filing reports lower Taiwan-attributed revenue and identifies the cause.
Under the moderate discount rate, 137 USD comes from forecast-period earnings and 149 USD from the long-term value, totaling 285 USD.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 67.2% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 68.6% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
The bull path requires stronger earnings growth than the base case while operating profitability holds and reinvestment follows the stronger path. Falling annual estimates would disconfirm it.1
It tests whether sales growth reaches shareholders.1
Lower margins would weaken earnings and cash from each sales dollar.5
Persistent spending would leave less free cash after investment.5
A customer loss could cut sales and factory use.6
| $46.13B |
| $57.98B |
| $67.65B |
| $72.85B |
| $75.03B |
| Revenue growth | 20.8% | 34.7% | 25.7% | 16.7% | 7.7% | 3.0% |
| Operating margin | 29.2% | 29.2% | 29.2% | 29.2% | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| Operating income | $10.01B | $13.48B | $16.94B | $19.77B | $21.29B | $21.92B |
| Tax rate | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| NOPAT | $8.81B | $11.87B | $14.92B | $17.40B | $18.74B | $19.30B |
| Reinvestment | $1.62B | $1.41B | $786.29M | $1.32B | $1.86B | $2.37B |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 18.4% | 11.9% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 12.3% |
| Depreciation and amortization | $525.26M | $707.42M | $889.09M | $1.04B | $1.12B | $1.15B |
| Free cash flow to firm | $7.19B | $10.46B | $14.13B | $16.08B | $16.88B | $16.94B |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Diluted shares | 790.11M | 772.62M | 755.52M | 738.79M | 722.43M | 706.44M |
| EPS | $12.05 | $18.46 | $22.13 | $24.50 | $24.88 | $26.20 |
| Net margin | 27.8% | 30.9% | 28.8% | 26.8% | 24.7% | 24.7% |
| Implied net income | $9.52B | $14.26B | $16.72B | $18.10B | $17.97B | $18.51B |
| Marża |
|---|
| AMAT | Applied Materials Inc. | $360.9B | 24.5x | 11.7x | 33.9x | 41.1% | — |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 27.7x | 17.9x | 40.3x | 87.5% | 42.5% | |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | 26.6x | 16.6x | 44.4x | 65.1% | 37.4% | |
| ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | 28.0x | 18.3x | 53.9% | 37.1% | ||
| TER | Teradyne Inc. | 30.6x | 12.5x | 36.9x | 36.5% | 33.2% |
| GAAP operating margin below 27% for two fiscal years. |
| Exit because lower revenue-to-profit conversion would reduce earnings and free cash flow. |
| Capital intensity | Capex to depreciation above 3 times in FY2028. | Exit because the assumed normalization would have failed.5 |
