Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
NASDAQ: AMGN · Real-Time Price · USD
$332
+2.60 (+0.8%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: AMGN rated Strong Buy
AMGN is rated Strong Buy at $329.09 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $505.34, implying +53.56% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$505 / share
$367 – $644
Upside to FV
+53.6%
from $332
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Contrarian: The market's -0.48% growth assumption is overly pessimistic and ignores structural cash power.
Biggest risk
MariTide Clinical Failure
Growth: High-optionality pipeline in obesity offers massive upside not currently priced in.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
AMGN is rated Strong Buy at $329.09 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $505.34, implying +53.56% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $177.7B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 37.2B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 7.8B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $14.4 | |
| Shares out | 539.7M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 23.1x | |
| P/E (forward) | 14.0x | |
| Dividend | $10.1 (3.04%) | |
| Volume | 2,443,210 | |
| Beta | 0.44 | |
| Price target | $355 | +7.0% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Amgen Inc.AMGN
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 37.2B
- Net income (ttm)
- 7.8B
- EPS (ttm)
- $14.4
- P/E (trailing)
- 23.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 14.0x
- Market cap
- $177.7B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $26.32B | $28.19B | $33.42B | $36.75B | +11.8% |
| Gross profit | $19.92B | $19.74B | $20.57B | $24.71B | +7.5% |
| Operating income | $9.57B | $7.90B | $7.26B | $9.08B | -1.7% |
| Net income | $6.55B | $6.72B | $4.09B | $7.71B | +5.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | $12.11 | $12.49 | $7.56 | $14.23 | +5.5% |
| EBITDA | $12.17B | $14.80B | $13.36B | $16.90B | +11.6% |
| R&D | $4.43B | $4.78B | $5.96B | $7.27B | +17.9% |
| SG&A | $5.41B | $6.18B | $7.10B | $7.05B | +9.2% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $367
- Fair value (mid)
- $505
- Fair value (high)
- $644
- Current price
- $332
- Upside to mid
- +53.6%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $424 | 35% |
| Forward earnings | $392 | 30% |
| Owner earnings | $698 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $768 | 10% |
| Discounted earnings | $1090 | 5% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $68.32 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $304 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Hold
Price target
$355
+7.0%
In the news
Latest news · AMGN
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $177.7B
- P/E (trailing)
- 23.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 14.0x
- P/S
- 4.8x
- P/B
- 19.5x
- PEG
- 3.16
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.3x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 71.4%
- Operating margin
- 32.6%
- ROE
- 101.3%
- ROA
- 8.3%
- ROIC
- 19.1%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 6.24
- Current ratio
- 1.26
- Quick ratio
- 0.85
Trading
- Beta
- 0.44
- Volume
- 2,443,210
- Dividend yield
- 3.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +53.6% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$644.16
+95.7% from spot
Successful commercialization of the obesity pipeline and oncology breakthroughs drive top-line re-acceleration and multiple expansion.
- MariTide peak revenue exceeds $5B
- Revenue CAGR shifts to 4%+
- Operating margins expand toward 30%
Base60%
Price target
$505.34
+53.6% from spot
Amgen successfully navigates patent cliffs via moderate new product growth and asset acquisitions, maintaining its compounder status.
- 2.5% revenue CAGR
- 28% operating margins
- Durable FCF compounding
Bear20%
Price target
$366.98
+11.5% from spot
Steeper declines in legacy products and pipeline disappointments lead to valuation anchoring at the FCF yield floor.
- MariTide clinical failure
- Steeper-than-expected legacy erosion
- Margin compression to 25%
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $505.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $424 | +27.8% | |
| Forward earnings | 30% | $392 | +18.2% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $698 | +110.3% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $768 | +131.5% | |
| Discounted earnings | 5% | $1090 | +228.6% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $68.3 | -79.4% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $304 | -8.4% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $505 | +53.6% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.4% | $719 | $884 | $884 | $884 | $884 |
| 5.4% | $505 | $593 | $719 | $884 | $884 |
| 6.4% | $390 | $440 | $505 | $593 | $719 |
| 7.4% | $317 | $350 | $390 | $440 | $505 |
| 8.4% | $278 | $290 | $317 | $350 | $390 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.4
Balance Sheet3.5
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment5.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
6.4/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.4 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Moderate/Overweight (88/100 confidence). Appropriate for a core healthcare holding.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$332
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Initial trim at $480 (near base fair value); full exit consideration above $580 if pipeline optionality fully prices in.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E14
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE101.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC19.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
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Market & fundamental data
Available fields
285
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 285 of 285 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on AMGN
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this AMGN report
What is the current AMGN stock rating?
Amgen Inc. is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full AMGN analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/AMGN/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for AMGN?
The latest report frames AMGN around $367 to $644. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the AMGN page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyAMGN · Fair value $505+53.6% · Confidence 88/100