Za zgodą użytkownika stosujemy ograniczoną analitykę chroniącą prywatność, aby zrozumieć, które ścieżki badawcze działają. Nie używamy trackerów reklamowych ani nagrywania sesji. Ten wybór można zmienić w Preferencjach. Przeczytaj Politykę prywatności.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
CPRT — frequently asked questions
Is Copart, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-05, CPRT trades close to fair value. The price recorded at analysis is 27,2 USD versus our fair value of 26,6 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 32,8 USD. That implies roughly 2.4% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-05, gives CPRT a fair value of 26,6 USD and a potential value of 32,8 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Copart, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy CPRT now?
Our latest published rating for CPRT, analyzed 2026-10-05, is Hold. Copart, Inc. trades close to fair value at the analysis-date price of 27,2 USD versus fair value of 26,6 USD; potential value is 32,8 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for CPRT?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-05 documents Copart, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is CPRT's rating?
Our latest published rating for CPRT, analyzed 2026-10-05, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 26,6 USD, the potential value of 32,8 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (27,2 USD).
Ten raport nie został jeszcze przetłumaczony. Odśwież za kilka minut, gdy kolejka tłumaczeń go przetworzy.
§1 Podsumowanie wykonawczeEN
Odpowiedź w 30 sekundHold
Cena a wartość
Cena
$27.22
Wartość godziwa
$26.58
Wartość potencjalna
$32.78
Stan na
2026-10-02
Dlaczego to może zadziałać
Penetrating commercial and dealer wholesale consignments via integrated buyer liquidity and condition reporting, expanding non-insurance volume from 25% toward 35% of total throughput while leveraging existing yard infrastructure.
Co zmieniłoby naszą ocenę
Insurance carrier contract churn or pricing concessions emerging from competitive salvage auction RFP re-bidding.
We rate Copart Inc. a Hold. At the report-date price of $27.22 as of October 2, 2026, the stock trades close to our house Fair value of $26.58 per share, offering a balanced risk-reward profile as capital cycle normalization offsets near-term insurance carrier contract contestability.2
We assign a Hold rating to Copart Inc. shares. For an everyday investor, a Hold recommendation indicates that the stock is fairly valued relative to its underlying business fundamentals. Current shareholders should maintain existing positions, but fresh capital should be withheld until a wider margin of safety emerges.
On the report date of October 2, 2026, Copart shares traded at $27.22. This report-date price stands roughly in line with our house midpoint of $26.58, representing an implied return of -2.35%. If operational execution and dealer consignment growth accelerate beyond expectations, long-term business expansion offers of up to $32.78 per share.
The principal risk that would dismantle our thesis is contract churn or pricing concessions during periodic insurance carrier request-for-proposal renegotiations. Because Copart operates high-fixed-cost vehicle storage yards, any loss of major insurer salvage assignments would depress regional throughput and lead to operational deleverage, threatening to push operating margins below 32.50% from the 35.42% achieved in fiscal 2026. Investors would observe this risk materializing if gross margins drop below 40.0% or annual revenue growth slows below 1.50% YoY.4,5
The strongest reason Copart can compound value over time is capital cycle normalization driving superior free cash flow conversion. After years of aggressive land buying, annual capital spending retreated from $568.99 million in fiscal 2025 to $337.36 million in fiscal 2026. Concurrently, secular increases in collision repair costs and vehicle complexity raise total loss rates, channeling growing salvage volume through Copart's high-margin Service revenue line. This dynamic enables operating cash flow ($1,604.49 million in fiscal 2026) to translate into abundant free cash flow, supporting our $26.58 Fair value and creating a path toward $32.78 Potential value as non-insurance dealer volume expands.4,5,6
Irreplaceable Storage Footprint and Entrenched Marketplace Liquidity
Copart's network of metropolitan vehicle storage yards is protected by restrictive municipal zoning permits that competitors cannot replicate, sustaining global buyer liquidity across 190 countries and delivering a 35.42% operating margin in fiscal 2026.4,5
Following peak capacity buildout in fiscal 2025 ($568.99M capex, 12.2% of sales), capital spending fell 40.7% to $337.36M in fiscal 2026 (7.2% of sales), enabling operating cash flow of $1,604.49M to convert directly into expanding owner earnings.5
With collision repair costs up more than 50% from 2019 levels and car rental rates rising 4.5% year over year, insurers are declaring total losses on a growing proportion of damaged vehicles, funneling high-margin volume to Copart's digital auctions.4,6
Rekomendacja domu
Hold: Copart trades in line with our house Fair value of $26.58 per share, as exceptional auction marketplace pricing power and capital cycle normalization are balanced by near-term carrier contract renewal friction and facility cost inflation.
Przegląd spółki
Copart Inc. provides online vehicle auction and remarketing services across North America and international markets. The company operates a digital marketplace connecting vehicle sellers—primarily automotive insurance carriers, banks, finance companies, fleet operators, and automotive dealers—with global vehicle buyers, including licensed dismantlers, rebuilders, repair facilities, and used vehicle retailers.
The company provides vehicle sellers with a full suite of remarketing services designed to expedite vehicle processing, maximize net salvage sales proceeds, and minimize administrative costs. These services encompass nationwide vehicle transport and secure storage across dedicated yard facilities, digital title processing, and salvage condition documentation.
Copart also equips commercial sellers with proprietary technology platforms and real-time transaction data. Sellers access gross and net sales returns, service fees, and over 300 real-time and historical data fields to generate ad hoc analytics, monitor vehicle disposition, and administer salvage inventories efficiently.
§2 Scenariusz negatywnyEN
Under an acute operational stress test where insurance carrier RFP renegotiations lead to localized volume defection and persistent facility operations expenses compress operating margins below 32.5%, Copart's balance sheet provides exceptional structural resilience. With $1,907.90M in cash against only $88.37M of debt, CPRT carries net cash of over $1.8B. Even with capital expenditures remaining near historical buildout levels ($510.99M-$568.99M in FY2024-FY2025) rather than the normalized $337.36M reported in FY2026, Copart's operating cash flow ($1,604.49M in FY2026) comfortably covers all capital requirements without external debt financing.
Persistent facility operations expenses and transportation costs compress gross profitability.
Dealer wholesale initiatives experience integration delays and remain margin-dilutive.
Total loss frequency plateaus as vehicle replacement valuations and collision patterns adjust.
In the downside scenario, cooling vehicle repair inflation and flattening total loss frequency constrain salvage auction volume growth. Periodic carrier contract negotiations lead to customer defection or fee concessions, causing regional yard volume deleverage. Simultaneously, commercial dealer expansion encounters prolonged operational friction, with elevated per-vehicle inspection and transportation expenses depressing gross margins, while capital expenditures re-escalate to defend storage capacity. This scenario would be disconfirmed if core service auction volumes accelerate or per-car operating costs decline across upcoming reporting periods.
Jak ta teza może się załamać
Severe Facility Operations Cost Deleverage and Carrier RFP Concessions
FY2026 gross margin fell to 41.8% and gross profit dropped by $15.8M due to cost inflation in long-haul delivery, TitleExpress, and dedicated wholesale yards, alongside persistent per-car operating costs and carrier RFP contestability. An operating margin dropping below 32.5% vs FY2026 35.42% would represent severe structural deleverage.4,5
FV impact
-2.8%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania
Pięć zdarzeń, które osłabiłyby naszą tezę inwestycyjną.
Copart commands a wide economic moat rooted in its dominant two-sided vehicle remarketing marketplace and irreplaceable real estate footprint. Unlike asset-light digital matchmakers, salvage auto auctions require vast, strategically located physical storage yards adjacent to major population centers. Regulatory and municipal hurdles surrounding industrial zoning, environmental clearances, and storm-water runoff regulations make recreating Copart's hundreds of storage facilities virtually impossible today. This physical foundation underpins a localized duopoly structure that shields the company from new entrants.
On top of its physical infrastructure, Copart has cultivated powerful network effects. By drawing registered commercial buyers, dismantlers, rebuilders, and international exporters across over 190 countries, Copart maximizes vehicle salvage realization for insurance carriers. Higher auction returns attract more vehicle volume from insurers, which in turn reinforces buyer liquidity. This virtuous loop is evident in Copart's Service revenue line, which accounted for $3,969.52M or 85.07% of the $4,666.21M in FY2026 revenue.
These structural advantages translate into extraordinary operating profitability. In FY2026, Copart delivered $1,652.59M in operating income, representing an operating margin of 35.41%. This towers over conventional industrial peers such as CARR (13.07%), LHX (12.57%), and TXT (8.70%). Combined with a fortress balance sheet holding $1,907.90M in cash against only $88.37M in debt, Copart possesses unmatched competitive insulation and capital compounding durability.
01Two-Sided Marketplace Network Effects — Copart connects major auto insurance carriers with global registered buyers across more than 190 countries, creating deep auction liquidity that maximizes vehicle salvage proceeds and cements carrier assignment volumes, generating $3,969.52M in Service revenue in FY2026 (85.07% of consolidated sales).Wide
02Irreplaceable Physical Yard Real Estate and Zoning Entitlements — Securing municipal zoning and environmental permits for hundreds of acres of industrial vehicle storage near major population centers represents an insurmountable physical barrier to entry, insulating Copart's operating infrastructure and enabling fixed-cost leverage.Wide
Znane zagrożenia dla przewagi
Zagrożenie
Powaga
Oś czasu
Złagodzenie
Periodic Insurance Carrier RFP Re-Bidding and Regional Account Contestability
medium
12-24 months
Unmatched global buyer liquidity maximizing gross salvage recoveries for carriers, coupled with deeply embedded digital workflow solutions such as TitleExpress.4
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($26.58). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $1.3B after modeled reinvestment of $117.6M, with terminal value at 74.4% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Commercial dealer transactions reach breakeven before becoming accretive in later periods.
In the base scenario, assigned 60.0% probability with a target of $26.58 yielding an implied return of -2.4% relative to the share price $27.22, Copart maintains its steady compounding trajectory. High-margin service revenue expands steadily, supported by structural repair complexity and ancillary fee capture from digital documentation. Capital expenditures normalize from prior peak transformation levels to sustainable maintenance requirements, driving healthy free cash flow conversion. Dealer wholesale initiatives progress toward breakeven over the near term. This scenario would be confirmed by stable mid-single-digit revenue growth and consistent operating margins through FY2028, whereas disconfirmation would stem from unexpected tier-one carrier defection or prolonged facility operations cost inflation.
Vehicle repair complexity drives faster-than-expected total loss declarations by insurance carriers.
Dealer wholesale consignments scale rapidly across dedicated yards without diluting unit margins.
Capital expenditures remain disciplined at normalized maintenance levels, maximizing cash generation.
§7 Drzewo decyzyjne wynikówEN
Powyżej
Upgrade the rating; Evaluate incremental capital allocation and consider increasing portfolio exposure if yard throughput proves operational leverage is intact.
Wyzwalacz: Consolidated revenue growth accelerating above consensus expectations alongside operating margin expansion driven by dealer wholesale profitability and strong service fee capture.
A material beat driven by accelerating service volume, successful non-insurance consignment scaling, and operating leverage would indicate that operational cost headwinds are resolving faster than anticipated, warranting an upward adjustment in valuation toward Potential value $32.78.
Zgodnie
Maintain Hold; Maintain position sizing within target allocations while monitoring progress on per-car cost reduction initiatives and dealer wholesale breakeven timing.
Performance tracking inline with consensus confirms the base case compounding trajectory, with Fair value at $26.58 aligning closely with the share price $27.22.
Poniżej
Downgrade the rating; Re-underwrite carrier contract retention, review yard volume trends, and consider reducing position size if structural cost inflation proves unaddressed.
Wyzwalacz: Revenue growth decelerating significantly below consensus or operating margins contracting under persistent yard operational cost deleverage and carrier defection.
A substantial miss resulting from carrier contract losses or persistent per-car operating expense deleverage would signal deterioration in competitive positioning, eroding the margin of safety relative to Fair value $26.58.
Jakość wyników
Copart exhibits high earnings quality supported by strong cash conversion, where operating cash flow closely tracks operating income. Because revenue is primarily fee-based service remuneration rather than vehicle inventory merchandise sales, working capital requirements are modest and inventory obsolescence risk is negligible. Receivables collections remain disciplined with major insurance carriers, and capital expenditure discipline post yard buildout ensures that reported earnings translate directly into tangible free cash flow.
Dynamika prognoz
Analyst estimate momentum has trended downward following the recent annual release, reflecting near-term operational expense absorption in long-haul delivery, dedicated wholesale yards, and TitleExpress rollout. While full-year revenue expectations remain stable, consensus earnings forecasts for upcoming fiscal periods have been revised downward to incorporate higher per-vehicle operating expenses before efficiency gains materialize.
BieżącyDemonstrating steady expansion supported by vehicle repair complexity and digital ancillary workflow tools.
Dlaczego to ważne
Service revenue represents the vast majority of consolidated sales and delivers superior margins; continued fee capture expansion via digital documentation and salvage services drives consolidated operating profit and intrinsic valuation.
Cash flow dynamics reflect high quality of earnings and superior cash conversion. Operating cash flow reached $1,604.49M in FY2026, closely backing operating income of $1,652.59M and GAAP net income of $1,484.27M. With capex declining to $337.36M, free cash flow expanded to $1,267.13M, representing free cash flow conversion of 85.4% of net income. Owner earnings reached $1,494.36M, computed from net income of $1,484.27M plus D&A of $229.37M minus estimated maintenance capex of $219.29M (65% of normalized capex), confirming robust economic cash generation.
With operating income of $1,652.59M and an effective tax rate of 19.33%, NOPAT is approximately $1,333.1M. As capital spending normalizes from peak buildout levels ($568.99M in FY2025 down to $337.36M in FY2026), invested capital growth moderates while NOPAT expands, positioning returns on capital to improve over the forecast period.
Copart generates returns on invested capital of ~16.6%, vastly exceeding its cost of equity of 9.50% and WACC of 9.52%, delivering a persistent economic profit spread exceeding 700 bps.
Capital Reinvestment Normalization Unleashes Free Cash Flow
FY2026 capex retreated by 40.7% to $337.36M (7.23% of revenue) from $568.99M in FY2025 and $510.99M in FY2024.
Struktura rachunku zysków i stratJak skala działalności przekłada się na raportowany zysk.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Przychody4,7 mld USDKoszt sprzedaży−2,6 mld USDZysk brutto2,1 mld USDKoszty operacyjne−431,3 mln USDZysk operacyjny1,7 mld USDPozycje pozaoperacyjne i podatki−168,3 mln USDZysk netto1,5 mld USD
Dane historii finansowej
Przychody
4 666 209 000 USD
Koszt sprzedaży
2 582 351 000 USD
Zysk brutto
2 083 858 000 USD
Koszty operacyjne
431 268 000 USD
Zysk operacyjny
1 652 590 000 USD
Pozycje pozaoperacyjne i podatki
-168 320 000 USD
Zysk netto
1 484 270 000 USD
Podsumowanie bilansuJak wykazane aktywa są utrzymywane i finansowane w wybranym okresie.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Struktura aktywówFinansowane przez
Aktywa ogółem10 mld USDŚrodki pieniężne1,9 mld USDAktywa obrotowe5,6 mld USDZobowiązania ogółem913,9 mln USDZobowiązania krótkoterminowe703,7 mln USDKapitał własny9,1 mld USD
Dane podziału bilansu
Aktywa ogółem
10 027 810 000 USD
Środki pieniężne
1 907 901 000 USD
Aktywa obrotowe
5 568 194 000 USD
Zobowiązania ogółem
913 930 000 USD
Zobowiązania krótkoterminowe
703 741 000 USD
Kapitał własny
9 097 295 000 USD
Most przepływów pieniężnychJak przepływy operacyjne przełożyły się na wolne przepływy pieniężne w FY2026.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Uzgodnienie przepływów operacyjnych
Zysk netto1,5 mld USDAmortyzacja+229,4 mln USDWynagrodzenie w akcjach+38,8 mln USDPozostałe korekty operacyjne−148 mln USDOperacyjne przepływy pieniężne1,6 mld USD
Uzgodnienie środków na początek i koniec
Środki pieniężne na początek2,8 mld USDOperacyjne przepływy pieniężne+1,6 mld USDPrzepływy inwestycyjne−877,6 mln USDPrzepływy finansowe−1,6 mld USDWpływ kursów walutowych+7,3 mln USDŚrodki pieniężne na koniec1,9 mld USD
Copart Inc. (CPRT) trades at 17.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 17.1x. Its EV/EBITDA of 11.2x compares with a peer median of 15.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Cintas Corporation, L3Harris Technologies Inc., Carrier Global Corporation and Textron Inc., as of 2026-10-04 to 2026-10-05.
§10 Branża i cyklEN
Faza cyklu
Contraction
Between FY2024 and FY2025, Copart underwent an intensive storage yard expansion cycle, with capex rising from $510.99M to a peak of $568.99M (12.2% of revenue and 2.61x D&A) in FY2025. In FY2026, capex contracted sharply by 40.7% to $337.36M (7.23% of revenue and 1.47x D&A). Note that third-party industry-wide capex benchmarks are unavailable, so this capital cycle assessment is company-specific, demand-led, and evidence-limited regarding broader salvage capacity.5
Cykl byczy
In an industry upcycle, escalating technological complexity in passenger vehicles (ADAS sensors, battery systems, and electronic components) drives collision repair inflation above CCC historical rates (>50% increase since 2019), boosting insurer total loss declarations. Concurrently, expanding commercial dealer consignments via condition reporting integration unlocks high-end whole-car inventory, driving double-digit unit auction throughput and operating leverage across physical yards.
Cykl niedźwiedzi
In an industry downcycle, softening used vehicle valuations and stabilizing repair costs compress total loss frequencies, moderating salvage volume assignment growth. Periodic insurer RFP renegotiations introduce customer churn, while higher per-car operating costs and transportation expense inflation erode gross profit margins toward 40%.
Trendy długoterminowe
Trend
Wpływ
Uwaga
Increasing Vehicle Technological Complexity and Repair Cost Inflation
positive
Collision repair costs have surged >50% since 2019 and vehicle replacement rental rates rose 4.5% YoY per CCC data. As ADAS sensors, electronics, and batteries inflate repair bills relative to vehicle market values, insurers declare a higher percentage of vehicles total losses, expanding salvage auction consignment volumes.
Digitalization of Salvage Claims and Title Processing
positive
Insurers demand seamless end-to-end digital solutions from vehicle assignment to title clearance. Products like TitleExpress and loan payoff workflow tools increase capture per consigned vehicle.
Pozycjonowanie
Copart occupies a dominant duopoly position in the global vehicle remarketing industry. Its physical network of proprietary, zoned storage yards and unmatched liquidity across 190+ buyer countries generate industry-leading profitability. In FY2026, Copart delivered an operating margin of 35.41% ($1,652.59M operating income on $4,666.21M revenue), dramatically outperforming capital goods peer margins such as CARR (13.07%), LHX (12.57%), and TXT (8.70%).2,3,4,5
§11 Zarządzanie pozycjąEN
Wielkość pozycji
2-3%
Copart is an exceptional mature compounder with a wide economic moat, pristine balance sheet ($1.91B cash vs $88.37M debt), and robust operating margins (35.41%). However, with the share price of $27.22 trading essentially in line with Fair value of $26.58 (-2.35% implied return), the risk/reward profile supports a Hold stance with a measured 2-3% portfolio sizing, awaiting better entry valuation or margin re-acceleration.2,5
Ryzyko
Position risk is mitigated by Copart's dominant physical auction network, pristine balance sheet, and absence of operational debt covenants. Catastrophic weather events introduce quarter-to-quarter volume and towing expense volatility, but historically expand salvage consignment supply over 6-12 month horizons. Carrier concentration is managed through multi-regional yard density, digital integration via TitleExpress, and maximizing recovery values to secure carrier retention.
Transze wejścia
Poziom
Działanie
Dlaczego
$24.50
Initiate core tranche
Provides an 8% discount to Fair value ($26.58), offering improved margin of safety against carrier RFP noise.
Copart's wide economic moat, two-sided buyer network, and 35.42% operating margin support steady long-term compounding. However, at the report-date price of $27.22 as of October 2, 2026, shares trade roughly in line with our house Fair value of $26.58 (-2.35% implied return), indicating a balanced valuation that warrants holding current positions.2,5
Risk-Conscious / Downside Perspective
Hold
Carrier contract renegotiations and customer loss acknowledged on the Q4 2026 call introduce assignment volume uncertainty. If yard operations deleverage and operating margins decline toward 32.50% from ancillary service cost inflation, earnings multiple contraction could occur, confirming that investors should avoid adding new capital.4
Long-Term Growth / Upside Perspective
Hold
Secular vehicle repair complexity continues expanding total loss frequency, while non-insurance dealer wholesale expansion provides long-term Potential value up to $32.78. Because management guided dealer initiatives to be breakeven in fiscal 2027 before turning accretive in fiscal 2028, patience is advised before increasing portfolio weight.4
§14 Końcowa rekomendacjaEN
Działanie
Trzymaj
We recommend a Hold on Copart Inc. at the report-date price of $27.22 as of October 2, 2026. The stock trades at a slight 2.41% premium to our house Fair value of $26.58 (-2.35% implied return), reflecting a balanced valuation where capital cycle normalization is counterbalanced by carrier contract contestability.2
Investors should maintain current allocations and monitor fiscal 2027 yard throughput, carrier contract renewals, and dealer wholesale integration progress before committing new capital.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Private notes
Visible only to you. Synced to this device.
0 chars
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Market and peer researchData as of 2026-10-04 · Published 2026-10-04 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 1 figureCited in Przewaga konkurencyjna, Branża i cykl
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
CPRT trades at 17.15x forward P/E, while industrial peers CARR and LHX trade at 16.66x and 17.48x, and TXT trades at 10.64x. The modeled terminal P/E of 18.0x assumes a persistent premium. If market growth expectations fade, the forward multiple would de-rate toward 14.5x, reflecting lower structural compounding.2
FV impact
-4.7%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 24 months
Indicates loss of major insurer accounts or failure to scale non-insurance dealer consignments, capping growth below core compounding expectations.
Obecnie:3.80% projected in FY2027 based on consensus over FY2026 revenue of $4,666.21M
Contraction in Service revenue would indicate carrier volume defection or loss of buyer liquidity, requiring a full re-underwrite of core compounding durability.
Obecnie:Product Service revenue of $3,969.52M in FY2026
Alarm, jeśli<=0.00% YoY contraction
03
High Insurance Carrier Switching Costs and Workflow Integration — Deep digital claims integration through TitleExpress, expedited loan payoff processing, and catastrophic surge response networks tightly entrench insurance carriers into Copart's operating ecosystem, deterring carrier platform migration despite periodic RFP contestability.
Wide
Ancillary Operating Cost Deleverage and Per-Car Expense Inflation
low
12-18 months
Active management focus on per-car operating cost reduction and operating leverage as transaction volume expands across dedicated wholesale facilities.4
Long-Term Collision Rate Moderation from Autonomous Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS)
medium
5-10 years
Surging vehicle technological complexity, sensor density, and higher repair costs (>50% increase from 2019 levels) structurally elevate total loss thresholds, counteracting potential accident moderation.4
44,7%
Method
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (5,63 USD) plus discounted terminal value (16,40 USD) minus signed per current share (-4,75 USD) equals the 26,78 USD lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Operating leverage across fixed storage yards drives consolidated margin expansion.
In the upside scenario, representing 20.0% probability and a target of $32.78 delivering an implied return of 20.4%, vehicle total loss frequency accelerates as collision repair complexity escalates, expanding salvage auction assignments. Simultaneously, dealer wholesale consignments scale rapidly across dedicated facilities with high inspection quality, accelerating non-insurance volume and driving operating margins toward the upper end of historical levels. Free cash flow conversion expands as capital expenditures stabilize near maintenance needs. This scenario would be confirmed by accelerating quarterly service revenue and expanding operating margins by FY2028, while disconfirmation would appear if dealer transactions fail to achieve operating profitability or carrier fee compression occurs.
BieżącyReflecting operational investments in dedicated wholesale yards and long-haul transportation services.
BieżącyTransitioning from peak yard expansion phase to a normalized maintenance regime.
Dlaczego to ważne
Lower capital intensity following multi-year land acquisition programs directly expands free cash flow conversion, funding shareholder capital returns.
04
Wskaźnik:
Non-Insurance Dealer Consignment Volume
BieżącyIntegrating buyer liquidity and condition reporting across wholesale channels to achieve operational breakeven.
Dlaczego to ważne
Commercial and dealer trades represent the primary avenue for volume growth beyond mature insurance salvage pools, unlocking incremental auction fees.
05
Wskaźnik:
Insurance Carrier Retention and RFP Contestability
BieżącyManaging periodic contract bidding cycles while leveraging superior buyer liquidity to preserve carrier recovery values.
Dlaczego to ważne
Carrier salvage assignments form the core volume baseline; account churn or volume defection creates regional yard volume deleverage.
Copart follows a disciplined, counter-cyclical capital allocation strategy. Following aggressive real estate yard investments in FY2024 ($510.99M) and FY2025 ($568.99M), capital expenditures moderated to $337.36M in FY2026. Management directs excess capital primarily toward share repurchases, deploying $1,632.54M in FY2026 to retire shares, while maintaining a fortress balance sheet with $1,907.90M in cash against $88.37M in debt. Copart pays no regular dividend, preserving dry powder for strategic yard and technology acquisitions.
FCF conversion from operating cash flow ($1,604.49M in FY2026) expanded to $1,267.13M, supporting shareholder capital returns without debt reliance.
Dominant High-Margin Service Revenue Model Insulates Profitability
Service revenue generated $3,969.52M in FY2026, comprising 85.07% of consolidated sales, driving operating margin of 35.41%.
Unlike pure wholesale merchants carrying vehicle inventory risk, Copart primarily earns fee-based auction commission, insulating operating earnings from swings in used car prices.
Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and Long-Term Collision Frequency
neutral
While autonomous safety features and active collision avoidance may gradually reduce minor fender-benders over a multi-decade horizon, the substantially higher repair cost per collision offsets lower frequency by raising total loss thresholds.
<1.50% YoY over trailing 12 months
Re-underwrite thesis assumptions regarding carrier retention and pause any planned position additions.4
