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CrowdStrike is a premier endpoint security and cloud workload protection platform demonstrating rapid revenue scaling and immense operating cash flows. However, massive structural reliance on stock-based compensation currently depresses GAAP profitability and masks true unit economics. Fair value range: low $140, high $274, with mid-point at $201.
Stock analysis

CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. fair value $201–$274

CRWD
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Przeanalizowano: 2026-05-10Następna aktualizacja: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Pre-profitNASDAQ · Information Technology
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Cena
$527.77
▼ -327.06 (-61.97%)
Wartość godziwa
$201
$201–$274
Rekomendacja
Sprzedaj
confidence 82/100
Potencjał wzrostu
-62.0%
upside to fair value
Margines Bezpieczeństwa
$170.60
buy below · 15%
Kapitalizacja
$134.3B
P/E fwd 85.6
Awaryjny angielskiPL
Pokazujemy źródło angielskie podczas tłumaczenia
Ten raport nie został jeszcze przetłumaczony. Odśwież za kilka minut, gdy kolejka tłumaczeń go przetworzy.

§1 Podsumowanie wykonawcze

  • Trading at ~85x forward PEG and ~27x EV/Rev, disconnected from fundamental realities.
  • Massive $1.09B SBC heavily suppresses true GAAP profitability and unit economics.
  • Target $200.71 assumes deceleration to ~12% growth and an 8x terminal multiple.
  • Reverse DCF shows consensus expectations are mathematically unsupportable.
Fair value
$201
Margin of safety
-163.0%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$527.77Price
FV $200.71
High $273.98

CrowdStrike is a premier endpoint security and cloud workload protection platform demonstrating rapid revenue scaling and immense operating cash flows. However, massive structural reliance on stock-based compensation currently depresses GAAP profitability and masks true unit economics.

  • Data network effects generated by
    Data network effects generated by the distributed Falcon platform.
  • High switching costs for integrated
    High switching costs for integrated enterprise cybersecurity stacks.
  • Cycle upside
    Elevated cyber threat landscape and strict regulatory mandates drive mandatory IT budget allocations toward premium vendors.

§2 Scenariusz negatywny

Intensifying competition compresses growth to mid-teens earlier than expected. Simultaneously, stubborn SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. continuously dilutes shareholders, preventing EPSEarnings per shareNet income divided by weighted-average diluted shares outstanding. The headline accounting earnings figure on a per-share basis. scaling and driving extreme multiple contraction.

Jak ta teza może się załamać

Microsoft Price War

· High

Microsoft undercuts endpoint pricing, driving CRWD growth below 15% and destroying terminal margin targets.

FV impact
Severe

SBC Revolt

· Medium

Institutional investors refuse to tolerate >20% SBC/Revenue, forcing cash compensation and tanking operating cash flows.

FV impact
High

Platform Breach

· Low

A catastrophic Falcon update or architectural breach severely impairs brand trust and sinks net retention rates.

FV impact
Terminal
Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania
WskaźnikBieżącyPróg wyzwalania
YoY revenue growth drops below 20% in the next two quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC as a percentage of revenue remains anchored above 20%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression emerges from enterprise pricing pressure.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net revenue retention consistently falls below the 120% threshold.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unfavorable shifts in the already distorted OCF-to-Net-Income ratio.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historia finansowa

Rachunek zysków i strat — ostatnich sześć okresów
PozycjaT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Okres2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Przychody$1.45B$2.24B$3.06B$3.95B$4.81B+34.9%
Zysk brutto$1.07B$1.64B$2.30B$2.96B$3.59B+35.4%
Zysk operacyjny$-142.5M$-190.1M$-19.1M$-116.4M$-293.3M—
Zysk netto$-234.8M$-183.2M$72.2M$-15.2M$-162.5M—
EPS (rozwodniony)$-1.03$-0.79$0.37$-0.08——
EBITDA$-66.0M$-40.8M$276.7M$298.8M$182.5M—
R&D$371.3M$608.4M$780.3M$1.08B$1.38B+39.0%
SG&A$839.6M$1.22B$1.54B$2.00B$2.50B+31.4%

Wyniki jakości

Wskaźnik Piotroski F
4 / 9
Złożony wynik jakości 0–9
Wskaźnik Altman Z
12.78
Ryzyko upadłości (>3 bezpieczne)
Wskaźnik Beneish M
-2.95
Ryzyko manipulacji wynikami
OCF / Zysk netto
-9.92
>1 wskazuje wysoką jakość wyników
Bramka jakości księgowej
Fail
Bramka skorygowana o sektor
ROIC
-0.0%
Zwrot z zainwestowanego kapitału
Sekcja 3

Numbers analysis

Alokacja kapitału

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Subskrybenci indywidualni — od §411 kolejnych sekcji

Przeczytaj pełną analizę — 11 kolejnych sekcji.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

CRWD — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CRWD looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $528 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $201 (range $140–$274), which implies roughly 62.0% downside to the midpoint.

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