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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
DLTR — frequently asked questions
Is Dollar Tree, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-07, DLTR looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 116 USD versus our fair value of 127 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 152 USD. That implies roughly 9.6% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-07, gives DLTR a fair value of 127 USD and a potential value of 152 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Dollar Tree, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy DLTR now?
Our latest published rating for DLTR, analyzed 2026-10-07, is Hold. Dollar Tree, Inc. looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of 116 USD versus fair value of 127 USD; potential value is 152 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for DLTR?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-07 documents Dollar Tree, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is DLTR's rating?
Our latest published rating for DLTR, analyzed 2026-10-07, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 127 USD, the potential value of 152 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (116 USD).
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§1 Podsumowanie wykonawczeEN
Odpowiedź w 30 sekundHold
Cena a wartość
Cena
$115.87
Wartość godziwa
$127.00
Wartość potencjalna
$151.74
Stan na
2026-10-07
Dlaczego to może zadziałać
Accelerated consumer adoption of multi-price merchandising tiers ($1.50 to $5.00+) across suburban stores lifts basket size and unit gross profit, while capital spending normalizes below 4.0% of sales to unlock over $1.4B in annual free cash flow.
Co zmieniłoby naszą ocenę
Consumer wallet reallocation accelerates consumable sales while discretionary variety merchandise share falls below 40.0% of consolidated revenue.
We rate Dollar Tree a Hold. The stock trades at a modest discount to our Fair value estimate of $127.00 per share, offering 9.61% implied upside that leaves an insufficient margin of safety given near-term grocery mix pressure.
A Hold rating indicates that current shareholders should maintain existing positions rather than committing fresh capital. For an ordinary investor, this means Dollar Tree is fairly valued relative to its business prospects, but the return potential does not yet justify taking on new equity risk until operational execution shows stronger margin expansion.
The report was prepared at a price of $115.87 on October 7, 2026. This price sits 8.77% below our house Fair value estimate of $127.00, representing an implied upside of 9.61%. Under more favorable operating conditions where multi-price adoption accelerates, the shares could reach our Potential value estimate of $151.74, but current trading levels already reflect most of the company's expected steady-state earnings.
The primary risk that would alter our view is a prolonged consumer trade-down that forces sales mix into lower-margin food staples while store operating costs rise. If customer purchases shift further away from high-margin variety goods into consumables, consolidated gross margin would compress toward discount peer levels. A reader watching for this risk would see variety merchandise fall below 40% of sales and operating margin compress below 5.52%, which would reduce operating earnings and cash generation.
The strongest reason the investment case can succeed is the multi-price format rollout paired with capital expenditure moderation. As Dollar Tree expands price points above $1.25 across its neighborhood store footprint, customer basket sizes increase while consumable traffic remains durable. As store upgrade spending recedes from prior peaks of $1,300.5M and $1,134.0M toward steady maintenance levels, free cash flow will expand, boosting normalized cash per share toward our Fair value of $127.00 and ultimately toward Potential value of $151.74.6,7
Convenience-Driven Footprint and Traffic Resilience
Compact suburban store locations capture frequent fill-in grocery and household consumable trips ($9,425.9M in FY2025) that warehouse clubs and large supercenters cannot economically replicate.7
Variety sales of $8,860.5M provide pricing power and curated discretionary markups, maintaining gross margins at 36.35% compared to discount peers like Dollar General at 31.16%.3,6,7
Free Cash Flow Inflection from Moderating Capital Intensity
Capital expenditures have begun moderating from peak store rollout levels of $1,300.5M to $1,134.0M in FY2025, creating a pathway toward normalized free cash flow conversion.6
Rekomendacja domu
We rate Dollar Tree a Hold because the 9.61% implied upside to our $127.00 Fair value provides an inadequate margin of safety against grocery mix margin pressure.
§2 Scenariusz negatywnyEN
In a combined macroeconomic stress test, persistent consumer inflation forces customer wallet share into low-margin consumable staples ($9,425.9M in FY2025) while discretionary variety merchandise demand ($8,860.5M) contracts. Consolidated gross margins compress from 36.35% toward Dollar General's 31.16% level. Store fleet modernization requires capital expenditures to remain elevated near FY2025's $1,134.0M, compressing annual free cash flow below modeled expectations. Under these conditions, operating profit falls from FY2025's $1,653.1M toward an operating margin near 7.0%, while the valuation multiple compresses toward 13.0x, driving fair value down to 97.95.
Persistent consumer inflation causes severe wallet trade-down into low-margin grocery staples, depressing variety merchandise demand.
Gross margin compresses toward discount peer levels as pricing adjustments fail to offset store wage and supply chain cost inflation.
Capital expenditures remain persistently elevated above depreciation to remediate store fleet issues, constraining free cash flow conversion.
A downside scenario exists driven by potential deterioration in retail unit economics. In this pathway, persistent consumer inflation forces customer wallet share heavily into low-margin grocery essentials, causing higher-margin variety sales to contract. The resulting sales mix shift erodes gross margin toward discount competitor levels, while store wage increases and freight costs compress operating profitability. Compounding this pressure, store modernization and supply chain capital requirements fail to moderate, sustaining elevated reinvestment and restricting free cash flow generation. Disconfirming signs of this downside risk include resilient variety sales and timely capital expenditure moderation in quarterly financial disclosures.
Jak ta teza może się załamać
Severe consumable mix shift and wage inflation compress operating margin by over 300 bps
A pronounced consumer trade-down rapidly expands consumable share ($9,425.9M in FY2025) at the expense of higher-margin variety goods ($8,860.5M). Combined with persistent store wage inflation, operating margins compress by more than 300 bps below 5.52% relative to FY2025's 8.52%, substantially impairing operating profit and cash generation.6,7
FV impact
-4.7%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania
Pięć zdarzeń, które osłabiłyby naszą tezę inwestycyjną.
Discretionary variety share falling below 40% signals severe consumer wallet reallocation into low-margin consumables, triggering a >150 bps contraction in consolidated gross margin and impairing operating earnings power.
Obecnie:45.68% (FY2025 variety sales of $8,860.5M on $19,395.7M total revenue)
Alarm, jeśli< 40.0% of consolidated sales
02
§3 Przewaga konkurencyjnaEN
Narrow
Dollar Tree's narrow economic moat is grounded in a differentiated small-format store network and deep procurement scale in discretionary variety merchandise. By locating compact stores in close proximity to residential neighborhoods, Dollar Tree captures frequent convenience micro-trips for everyday consumables ($9,425.9M in FY2025) that big-box discounters like Walmart and wholesale clubs like Costco cannot efficiently service on a fill-in basis. This convenience real estate moat insulates baseline customer foot traffic and underpins steady top-line growth across consolidated net sales of $19,395.7M.
The company's merchandising architecture maintains a deliberate balance between traffic-driving consumables and high-margin variety goods ($8,860.5M in FY2025). Through extensive direct-sourcing partnerships and curated variety assortments, Dollar Tree achieves a consolidated gross profit margin of 36.35% ($7,050.7M gross profit), significantly higher than direct peer Dollar General at 31.16% and Costco at 12.82%. The ongoing rollout of multi-price points ($1.50 to $5.00+) enhances unit gross profit per basket, providing pricing insulation against supplier inflation.
Moat durability is reinforced by the moderation of multi-year store optimization capital investments. Capital expenditures peaked at $1,300.5M in FY2024 and eased to $1,134.0M in FY2025, funding cooler installations and distribution automation. As capital intensity moderates toward maintenance levels of ~3.8% of sales, cash reinvestment requirements decline, supporting durable economic profit generation above the company's 7.45% WACC and preserving Dollar Tree's retail compounding power.
Zysk ekonomiczny
Dollar Tree generates returns on invested capital of approximately 18.3%, comfortably exceeding its moderate cost of equity of 8.52% and computed WACC of 7.45%. This positive economic profit spread reflects an efficient small-box operating model that generated $1,653.1M in FY2025 operating income and $2,530.2M in operating cash flow on $19,395.7M in net sales.2,4,6
6.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Convenience-Driven Real Estate Network and Store Proximity — Dollar Tree operates thousands of compact neighborhood stores situated close to residential communities, serving convenience micro-trips and fill-in shopping that large-box discounters like Walmart or Costco cannot cost-effectively capture, insulating consolidated sales of $19,395.7M in FY2025 and consumable sales of $9,425.9M.Moderate
02Procurement Scale and Direct Sourcing Cost Advantage in Variety Merchandise — Global sourcing and curated buying power in high-margin variety goods ($8,860.5M in sales in FY2025) allow Dollar Tree to generate 36.35% gross profit margin ($7,050.7M gross profit), outpacing Dollar General's 31.16% gross margin and Costco's 12.82%.Moderate
Znane zagrożenia dla przewagi
Zagrożenie
Powaga
Oś czasu
Złagodzenie
Aggressive Grocery Pricing and Digital Omni-Channel Expansion by Mass Merchants
medium
12-24 months
Expanding multi-price consumables ($1.50-$5.00+) and refrigerated/frozen cooler doors to increase basket size and fulfill quick-trip grocery convenience.
Consumable Sales Mix Dilution from Inflation-Driven Low-Income Wallet Pressures
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($127.00). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $825.4M after modeled reinvestment of $505.9M, with terminal value at 82.0% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Everyday consumable merchandise sustains customer visit frequency while multi-price format conversions expand basket size across the retail fleet.
Variety merchandise sales maintain near parity with consumable volume, defending consolidated gross margin against trade-down pressure.
Capital spending moderates from peak multi-year conversion intensity toward normalized maintenance levels.
Operating margin normalizes modestly as retail volume leverage balances wage increases and distribution investments.
The Base scenario projects a target value of $127.00 with an assigned probability of 60.0%, representing an implied return of 9.6% relative to share price $115.87. For this pathway to unfold, consumable assortments must continue driving store traffic while multi-price adoption expands transaction size without consumer resistance. Variety merchandise must maintain near parity with consumables to defend gross margin, while capital expenditures taper from peak levels toward maintenance intensity to unlock operating cash flow. Disconfirming evidence would emerge if comparable store sales growth stalls, gross margin contracts toward discount peer levels, or conversion capital outlays remain elevated into FY2027. Investors will evaluate progress through upcoming quarterly reports tracking merchandise mix and capital expenditure pacing.
Supply chain automation and store labor efficiencies drive operating margin expansion beyond baseline forecasts.
§7 Drzewo decyzyjne wynikówEN
Powyżej
Upgrade the rating; Re-examine portfolio weighting for potential expansion toward upper allocation limits if multi-price rollout accelerates cash flow generation and variety merchandise margins hold firm.
Wyzwalacz: Comparable store sales accelerating above consensus expectations driven by multi-price tier adoption, gross margin expanding as variety merchandise retains parity with consumables, and capital expenditures declining year over year.
An earnings beat driven by strong multi-price merchandise uptake and disciplined operating expense leverage would indicate that unit economics are expanding faster than modeled, warranting an upward revision toward Potential value $151.74.
Zgodnie
Maintain Hold; Maintain current portfolio exposure while monitoring quarterly capital expenditure pacing and consumable transaction frequency checkpoints.
Wyzwalacz: Comparable store sales and operating margins matching consensus expectations, with consumable sales expansion offsetting moderate gross margin pressure.
Results aligning with guidance and consensus estimates confirm that the core compounding thesis remains on track, maintaining valuation at Fair value $127.00 relative to share price $115.87.
Poniżej
Downgrade the rating; Re-evaluate the investment thesis, verify whether margin compression reflects structural impairment against mass discounters, and trim portfolio exposure accordingly.
Wyzwalacz: Comparable store sales falling below consensus expectations, gross margin contracting sharply under grocery mix dilution, and capital expenditures failing to moderate.
An earnings miss caused by severe consumable mix dilution or elevated store conversion costs would erode operating margins and invalidate the capital cycle normalization thesis, increasing downside risk toward stress levels.
Jakość wyników
Earnings quality is robust, supported by strong operating cash flow generation that exceeds reported net income. Working capital management remains disciplined, with inventory turnover keeping pace with consumable volume throughput and minimal obsolescence risk across variety assortments. Core operating profits are generated predominantly through retail store sales rather than non-operating adjustments or aggressive revenue recognition, while capital expenditures are fully funded from organic operational cash flows.
Dynamika prognoz
Consensus earnings revisions have exhibited an upward trajectory following recent earnings disclosures, supported by steady foot traffic in everyday consumables and traction in multi-price format rollouts. Sell-side consensus has incrementally increased full-year earnings expectations as store productivity and margin defense remain resilient, though near-term quarterly estimates reflect cautious discretionary consumer spending expectations.
Metryki do obserwacji przed publikacją
01
Wskaźnik:
Consumable Merchandise Sales Mix
BieżącyConsumable product sales represent approximately half of consolidated revenue, reflecting elevated customer demand for everyday food and household essentials.
Dlaczego to ważne
Expanding consumable sales drives store foot traffic and visit frequency, but because consumables carry lower gross margins than discretionary merchandise, excessive mix shift risks diluting overall operating profitability.
Dollar Tree demonstrated strong cash generation in FY2025, producing $2,530.2M in operating cash flow and $1,400.0M in free cash flow on net income of $1,282.5M, representing an operating cash conversion ratio well above 100%. Free cash flow conversion expanded as capital spending eased from $1,300.5M in FY2024 to $1,134.0M in FY2025. Modeling maintenance capex at 65% of total capex ($737.1M) yields normalized owner earnings of $1,193.5M ($6.36 per share), proving that cash generation is structurally sound.4,5,6
Dollar Tree's estimated ROIC of ~18.3% generates a substantial economic spread of over 1,000 basis points above its computed WACC of 7.45% and its cost of equity of 8.52%, confirming sustained economic value creation.
Most przepływów pieniężnychJak przepływy operacyjne przełożyły się na wolne przepływy pieniężne w FY2026.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Uzgodnienie przepływów operacyjnych
Zysk netto1,3 mld USDAmortyzacja+648,1 mln USDWynagrodzenie w akcjach+58,9 mln USDPozostałe korekty operacyjne+540,7 mln USDOperacyjne przepływy pieniężne2,5 mld USD
Uzgodnienie środków na początek i koniec
Środki pieniężne na początek1,5 mld USDOperacyjne przepływy pieniężne+2,5 mld USDPrzepływy inwestycyjne−728,5 mln USDPrzepływy finansowe−2,6 mld USDWpływ kursów walutowych+900 tys. USDŚrodki pieniężne na koniec760,7 mln USD
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) trades at 17.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 24.2x. Its EV/EBITDA of 11.3x compares with a peer median of 16.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Walmart Inc., Dollar General Corporation, Sysco Corporation and Costco Wholesale Corporation, as of 2026-10-06 to 2026-10-07.
§10 Branża i cyklEN
Faza cyklu
Contraction
Industry capex to depreciation stands at 1.91x and industry capex to revenue is 4.9%. For Dollar Tree, capital expenditures reached a peak of $1,300.5M in FY2024 before contracting to $1,134.0M in FY2025 (5.85% of revenue and 1.75x D&A of $648.1M), reflecting the transition from peak fleet conversion spend toward steady-state maintenance.6
Cykl byczy
In an industry upcycle, economic stabilization boosts discretionary consumer spending, driving higher-margin variety and seasonal merchandise sales ($8,860.5M in FY2025) while multi-price adoption elevates average transaction values across the store fleet. Retail operating leverage expands operating margins beyond 8.52% toward 9.5%, as supply chain bottlenecks abate and store productivity accelerates.
Cykl niedźwiedzi
In an industry downcycle or prolonged inflationary squeeze, lower-income households reallocate spending strictly toward essential consumable items ($9,425.9M in FY2025), depressing discretionary variety margins and eroding consolidated gross margins toward Dollar General's 31.16%. Concurrently, persistent retail wage increases and competitive grocery pricing from mass retailers constrain operating income and reduce store cash generation.
Trendy długoterminowe
Trend
Wpływ
Uwaga
Value Retail Trade-Down and Consumer Price Sensitivity
positive
Persistent inflation in household nondurables encourages middle- and lower-income demographics to frequent discount retailers for everyday essentials, expanding consumable revenue ($9,425.9M in FY2025) and supporting baseline transaction counts.
Multi-Price Retail Architecture in Fixed-Price Formats
Pozycjonowanie
Dollar Tree is positioned as a defensive value retailer offering convenience and extreme value through compact neighborhood stores. With $19,395.7M in net sales in FY2025, its balanced product mix between consumables (48.60%) and high-margin variety goods (45.68%) generates an 8.52% operating margin, insulating the company far better than pure grocery or low-margin discounters like Dollar General (6.81% operating margin).3,6,7
§11 Zarządzanie pozycjąEN
Wielkość pozycji
2-3%
With the rating at Hold and an implied upside of 9.61% from the analysis price of $115.87 to Fair value of $127.00, risk/reward is balanced. A neutral position weight of 2-3% reflects steady earnings compounding underpinned by consumable foot traffic ($9,425.9M) and 36.35% gross margin, balanced against multi-year capex requirements ($1,134.0M in FY2025) and competition from mass retail peers.4,6,7
Ryzyko
Risk management centers on disciplined position sizing capped at 2-3% of portfolio equity, strict monitoring of store-level merchandise mix between consumables ($9,425.9M) and variety goods ($8,860.5M), and monitoring annual capex moderation ($1,134.0M in FY2025). Given the balanced Hold rating, capital should not be deployed aggressively unless share prices pull back toward cash flow model support near $105.00 or operational milestones confirm accelerating free cash flow.
The shares trade at a modest discount to Fair value ($127.00), justifying retention of current holdings while awaiting further evidence of gross margin defense and capex tapering.
Downgrade stance and reduce position by 50%, as gross margin deterioration indicates inability of variety goods ($8,860.5M) to offset consumable margin dilution.7
§12 Perspektywy inwestorówEN
Value Investor
Hold
Dollar Tree trades at $115.87 on October 7, 2026, offering 9.61% upside to our Fair value estimate of $127.00. While the company maintains a durable small-box footprint and high gross margins (36.35% in FY2025), the current 8.77% discount to intrinsic value does not provide an adequate margin of safety against potential consumable mix dilution.4,6
Growth Investor
Hold
Top-line revenue expansion is projected at 6.0% to 6.5% annually, supported by consumable traffic and multi-price store additions. However, growth rates lag larger competitors such as Costco (11.1% growth), suggesting that capital allocation should remain neutral until comp-store sales acceleration is demonstrated.1
Income and Conservative Investor
Avoid
Dollar Tree does not pay a cash dividend, instead prioritizing capital expenditures for store fleet conversions ($1,134.0M in FY2025) and share repurchases. Conservative income-oriented investors seeking regular cash distributions will find better yields elsewhere in the retail sector.6
§14 Końcowa rekomendacjaEN
Działanie
Trzymaj
Maintain current holdings with a Hold rating. Dollar Tree trades at $115.87 on October 7, 2026, offering 9.61% implied upside to our Fair value estimate of $127.00 per share. While everyday consumable traffic ($9,425.9M in FY2025) and variety gross margins (36.35%) support stable earnings, capital expenditures remain elevated at $1,134.0M (1.75x D&A), warranting patience before initiating new positions.4,6,7
Investors should monitor multi-price conversion pacing and merchandise mix balance. A re-rating toward our Potential value of $151.74 requires tangible proof that capital intensity is declining toward maintenance levels of ~3.8% of sales and that operating margins can sustain 8.52% without sacrificing transaction frequency.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Store conversion delays and mass merchant competition stall 5-year revenue CAGR by 500 bps
Intense competitive pressure from mass retailers like Costco (growing revenue at 11.1%) and Walmart caps comparable store sales, while supply chain hurdles slow multi-price store rollouts. Five-year revenue CAGR falls 500 bps below 1.58% compared to consensus expectations of 6.05% in FY2028 ($21,940.6M), severely impairing fixed-cost leverage across the store base.1
FV impact
-3.6%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Terminal valuation derating toward discount peer multiples under sustained capital reinvestment
Capital expenditures fail to normalize from elevated levels ($1,134.0M in FY2025), remaining above 1.7x depreciation and dampening free cash flow conversion. Consequently, the market de-rates Dollar Tree's terminal multiple by 20% below 13.2x, converging toward or below direct peer Dollar General's forward P/E of 14.80x.3,6
Operating margin dropping below 5.52% indicates failure of multi-price point markups to absorb wage inflation and grocery mix dilution, triggering deep cash conversion impairment.
Obecnie:8.52% ($1,653.1M operating profit on $19,395.7M revenue in FY2025)
Gross margin compressing below 32% indicates loss of unit pricing power and erosion of small-box convenience insulation against mass retail peers like Dollar General (31.16%).
Consumable sales growth falling below 2% indicates loss of customer trip frequency and foot traffic to warehouse clubs like Costco (growing revenue at 11.1%) and Walmart, undermining store transaction density.
Obecnie:Consumable net sales reached $9,425.9M in FY2025 (48.60% of total revenue of $19,395.7M)
Alarm, jeśli< 2.0% annual growth
high
6-18 months
Accelerating multi-price rollout in seasonal and variety categories ($8,860.5M sales in FY2025) to lift cash margin per unit and offset grocery margin headwinds.7
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (20,63 USD) plus discounted terminal value (93,84 USD) minus signed per current share (9,13 USD) equals the 105 USD lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
The Bull scenario projects a target value of $151.74 with an assigned probability of 20.0%, offering an implied return of 31.0% against share price $115.87, reaching toward Potential value $151.74. Realizing this pathway requires rapid customer acceptance of higher multi-price tiers without unit volume friction, driving meaningful basket size expansion and lifting variety merchandise sales. Simultaneously, supply chain automation must drive operating margin expansion, while store fleet capital outlays normalize swiftly to unlock substantial free cash flow. This scenario would be disconfirmed if promotional discounting becomes necessary to defend transaction counts or if store conversion delays escalate capital commitments through FY2027.
Variety merchandise maintains near parity with consumables in net sales, successfully defending gross profit margins.
Dlaczego to ważne
Discretionary variety goods provide high markups and pricing flexibility that insulate store-level profitability against grocery mix dilution; a decline would erode consolidated gross margins.
Capital allocation is prioritized toward organic high-return store fleet optimization, multi-price format conversions, and distribution infrastructure before shareholder returns. With no regular common dividend payout, excess liquidity above store reinvestment requirements is deployed into opportunistic share repurchases, reducing diluted average shares to 206.3M in FY2025 from 215.9M in FY2024. Management maintains conservative financial leverage, with cash reserves of $717.8M providing ample buffer against $1,250M of funded maturities in FY2028.
Consumable net sales reached $9,425.9M (48.60% of revenue), while variety merchandise contributed $8,860.5M (45.68%), keeping gross margin at 36.35% ($7,050.7M gross profit).
Maintaining variety sales near parity with consumables prevents grocery trade-down from eroding retail gross margins toward peer Dollar General's 31.16%.
Tapering store transformation spending reduces net reinvestment rates from 38% toward 24% by FY2031, unlocking substantial distributable cash flow.
Debt obligations are well-covered with no immediate refinancing cliff
Total debt stood at $2,431.7M on the balance sheet as of 2026-01-31 with cash of $717.8M, with company total debt of $7,670.8M including lease liabilities at a 5.85% pre-tax cost of debt.
Manageable near-term debt maturities and robust operating cash flow ($2,530.2M in FY2025) insulate the balance sheet against elevated interest rates.
Sysco CorporationSYY
Cena / wartość godziwa
Wartość godziwa86,19 USDReport-date price77,49 USD
Data oceny
Przewaga konkurencyjnaNarrow
Karta wyników inwestycyjnych62 / 100
Costco Wholesale CorporationCOST
Cena / wartość godziwa
Wartość godziwa439,14 USDReport-date price895,31 USD
Data oceny
Przewaga konkurencyjnaWide
Karta wyników inwestycyjnych69 / 100
Marża
DLTR
Dollar Tree Inc.
$21.7B
17.0x
1.1x
11.3x
46.0%
—
WMT
Walmart Inc.
$857.5B
33.5x
1.2x
20.9x
22.3%
3.5%
DG
Dollar General Corporation
$27.1B
14.8x
0.6x
11.6x
19.7%
6.8%
SYY
Sysco Corporation
$37.6B
14.2x
0.4x
11.1x
77.7%
4.8%
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
$409.4B
36.9x
1.4x
27.6x
28.4%
4.0%
positive
The transition beyond strict single-dollar thresholds to multi-price tiers ($1.50 to $5.00+) unlocks broader SKU merchandising, increases unit ticket sizes, and protects gross margins (36.35% in FY2025) against supplier cost increases.
Omni-Channel and Warehouse Club Market Share Gains
negative
Rapid grocery delivery and warehouse club expansion (with Costco growing net sales at 11.1%) intensify competition for suburban consumer grocery baskets, capping small-box same-store traffic growth.
$100.00 - $105.00 (Approaching cash-flow DCF support of $105.34)
Selective accumulation / Add to position if thesis remains intact
At this valuation, the stock trades at severe discount levels where core convenience assets and stable consumable cash flows provide substantial asymmetric upside.
Exit remaining tactical position or reduce to minimal long-term holding.
