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JD.com is a mature quality compounder with a highly defensible owned-logistics network. However, intense price competition from PDD and sluggish consumer demand in China restrict near-term growth and margin expansion, warranting a heavily discounted terminal multiple. Fair value range: low $31.8, high $56.4, with mid-point at $44.1.
Stock analysis

JD fair value $32–$56

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Przeanalizowano: 2026-05-20Następna aktualizacja: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Cena
$32.38
▲ +11.69 (+36.10%)
Wartość godziwa
$44
$32–$56
Rekomendacja
Zdecydowanie kupuj
confidence 88/100
Potencjał wzrostu
+36.1%
upside to fair value
Margines Bezpieczeństwa
$37.46
MoS level · 15%
Kapitalizacja
$43.7B
P/E fwd 7.5
Awaryjny angielskiPL
Pokazujemy źródło angielskie podczas tłumaczenia
Ten raport nie został jeszcze przetłumaczony. Odśwież za kilka minut, gdy kolejka tłumaczeń go przetworzy.

§1 Podsumowanie wykonawcze

  • Highly defensible owned-logistics network supports FCF visibility.
  • Price competition and sluggish demand restrict near-term growth.
  • Discounted 12x terminal multiple prices in structural China risks.
  • 36.1% upside to $44.07 base case fair value target.
Fair value
$44
Margin of safety
+26.5%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$32.38Price
Low $31.76
Mid $44.07
High $56.43

JD.com is a mature quality compounder with a highly defensible owned-logistics network. However, intense price competition from PDD and sluggish consumer demand in China restrict near-term growth and margin expansion, warranting a heavily discounted terminal multiple.

  • Owned-logistics network
    Owned-logistics network
  • Supply chain scale
    Supply chain scale
  • Bull thesis
    Composite fair value of $44.07 synthesizes strong FCF metrics with aggressive upside potential.

§2 Scenariusz negatywny

Persistent deflationary pressures and aggressive subsidization by rivals erode margins, causing revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible. to stagnate and structural multiple compression.

Jak ta teza może się załamać

PDD price war escalation

· High

Aggressive subsidization from PDD permanently impairs JD's 1P retail margins.

FV impact
Downside to $31.76
Trigger
12-24 months

China macro stagnation

· Medium

Persistent deflationary pressures and sluggish consumer demand prevent top-line recovery.

FV impact
Terminal multiple compression to 10x
Trigger
1-3 years

Regulatory shifts

· Low

Unfavorable regulatory actions affecting ADRs or Chinese internet platforms.

FV impact
Severe multiple compression
Trigger
Unpredictable
Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania
WskaźnikBieżącyPróg wyzwalania
Sequential decline in operating margin below 3.5%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Market share loss to PDD in core categoriesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deceleration in revenue growth below 3%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Increase in fulfillment costs eroding logistics advantageMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Weakness in consumer discretionary spending metricsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historia finansowa

Rachunek zysków i strat — ostatnich sześć okresów
PozycjaT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Okres2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Przychody$1,046.24B$1,084.66B$1,158.82B$1,309.09B+7.8%
Zysk brutto$147.07B$159.70B$183.87B$210.03B+12.6%
Zysk operacyjny$18.34B$28.91B$39.57B$3.69B-41.4%
Zysk netto$10.38B$24.17B$41.36B$19.63B+23.7%
EPS (rozwodniony)$6.42$15.22$26.86$12.90+26.2%
EBITDA$23.21B$42.82B$63.34B$37.87B+17.7%
R&D$16.89B$16.39B$17.03B$22.23B+9.6%
SG&A$48.83B$49.84B$56.84B$95.93B+25.2%

Wyniki jakości

Wskaźnik Piotroski F
5 / 9
Złożony wynik jakości 0–9
Wskaźnik Altman Z
2.37
Ryzyko upadłości (>3 bezpieczne)
Wskaźnik Beneish M
-2.52
Ryzyko manipulacji wynikami
OCF / Zysk netto
0.97×
>1 wskazuje wysoką jakość wyników
Bramka jakości księgowej
Pass
Bramka skorygowana o sektor
ROIC
6.7%
Zwrot z zainwestowanego kapitału
Sekcja 3

Numbers analysis

Przepływy pieniężne

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Alokacja kapitału

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Subskrybenci indywidualni — od §411 kolejnych sekcji

Przeczytaj pełną analizę — 11 kolejnych sekcji.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

JD intrinsic value questions

  1. JD (JD)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

FAQ

JD — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, JD looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $32.4 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $44.1 (range $31.8–$56.4), which implies roughly 36.1% upside to the midpoint.

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