Is Mohawk Industries Inc. overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-15, MHK trades close to fair value. The price recorded at analysis is 120 USD versus our fair value of 115 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 139 USD. That implies roughly 3.9% downside to fair value at that date.

What is MHK's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-15, gives MHK a fair value of 115 USD and a potential value of 139 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Mohawk Industries Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy MHK now?

Our latest published rating for MHK, analyzed 2026-10-15, is Hold. Mohawk Industries Inc. trades close to fair value at the analysis-date price of 120 USD versus fair value of 115 USD; potential value is 139 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for MHK?

The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-15 documents Mohawk Industries Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.

What is MHK's rating?

Our latest published rating for MHK, analyzed 2026-10-15, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 115 USD, the potential value of 139 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (120 USD).

What archetype is MHK?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-10-15, Mohawk Industries Inc. is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for MHK.

MHK stock analysis | StockMarketAgent.AI

StockMarketAgent researchPrzeanalizowano 2026-10-15

Mohawk Industries Inc.

MHK

Trzymaj

Wycena godziwa · 3,9% od wartości godziwej

Report-date price

119,97 USD

Recorded 2026-10-14

Wartość godziwa

115,33 USD

Wartość potencjalna

138,62 USD

Górna granica wyceny

Przewaga konkurencyjna

Narrow6.5 / 10

Awaryjny angielskiPL

Pokazujemy źródło angielskie podczas tłumaczenia

Ten raport nie został jeszcze przetłumaczony. Odśwież za kilka minut, gdy kolejka tłumaczeń go przetworzy.

§1 Podsumowanie wykonawczeEN

Odpowiedź w 30 sekundHold

Cena a wartość

Cena: $119.97
Wartość godziwa: $115.33
Wartość potencjalna: $138.62
Stan na: 2026-10-14

Dlaczego to może zadziałać

A faster-than-anticipated recovery in existing home turnover spurred by declining mortgage rates, unlocking substantial pent-up flooring replacement demand and generating powerful fixed-cost absorption across domestic tile and carpet facilities toward Potential value of $138.62.

Co zmieniłoby naszą ocenę

Severe input price/cost squeeze from cumulative natural gas, petrochemical resin, and transportation inflation outstripping customer price realization.

Mohawk Industries is rated Hold with the share price of $119.97 as of $119.97 (as of 2026-10-14) trading in close alignment with house Fair value of $115.33.

The house rating is Hold, indicating that the shares are fairly valued for ordinary investors at $119.97 as of $119.97 (as of 2026-10-14). While Mohawk exhibits sound balance sheet discipline and operational resilience, prospective returns reflect balanced valuation rather than compelling cyclical mispricing.

The report was prepared at a share price of $119.97 as of $119.97 (as of 2026-10-14), representing an implied return of -3.9% to the house Fair value of $115.33. Potential value of $138.62 reflects the upper boundary of intrinsic earnings power under an accelerated remodeling demand recovery, but the shares currently trade near the house midpoint.

The principal risk to this rating is a severe input cost squeeze where cumulative natural gas, petrochemical resin, and transportation inflation outstrips selling price realization. If customer resistance prevents further price increases, would compress below FY2025 trough levels of 4.54%, reducing cash generation and forcing a rating downgrade.

§2 Scenariusz negatywnyEN

Under a severe cyclical stress test combining sustained input inflation with stagnant residential remodeling turnover, Mohawk's consolidated operating margin is restricted to 4.5% or lower, failing to recover toward the normalized 7.5% baseline assumption. With European consumer confidence depressed and customer pushback limiting further price hikes, operating cash flow would fall toward $750M-$800M. After accounting for maintenance and guided capital expenditures of $460M, free cash flow conversion would contract significantly from the $616.2M generated in FY2025, constraining share repurchases and balance sheet flexibility.

Bear scenario

Bear

Probability

25%

Return

-24.6%

Path target

$90.47

Prolonged stagnation in existing home sales and discretionary remodeling
Severe input cost squeeze where inflation outpaces selling price realization
Foreign import penetration eroding domestic hard surface market share

In the bear case, prolonged mortgage lock-in and weak existing home turnover suppress residential flooring replacement across North America and Europe. Escalating natural gas and chemical input costs flow through inventory faster than selling price realization can offset, triggering margin compression. Fixed overhead under-absorption and potential rejection of trade tariff remedies further depress domestic hard surface demand.

Jak ta teza może się załamać

Severe input price/cost squeeze from cumulative natural gas, petrochemical resin, and freight inflation outstripping realization.

Management disclosed that underlying inflation stepped up by $35M in Q2 and will see an identical ~$35M step-up in Q3, with costs flowing through inventory into the second half. If consumer resistance prevents further pricing realization, operating margins will compress below FY2025 levels of 4.54%, triggering an operating margin drop below 4.5% within 12 months with an estimated fair value impact of -28.5%.^4,6

FV impact

Operating margin 3 points lower throughout

Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania

Pięć zdarzeń, które osłabiłyby naszą tezę inwestycyjną.

Consolidated operating margin

Operating margin dropping below 4.50% would indicate that raw material, energy, and transportation inflation is completely outpacing pricing realization and productivity programs.

Obecnie:4.54% in FY2025

Alarm, jeśli< 4.50%

§3 Przewaga konkurencyjnaEN

Narrow

Mohawk Industries possesses a narrow economic moat grounded in scale advantages across ceramic tile and hard surface manufacturing, reinforced by an extensive company-owned distribution network. In FY2025, the Global Ceramic segment generated $4,289.4M in revenue and $266.7M in operating income, reflecting global manufacturing density that lowers unit production costs across kilns and automated pressing facilities.

The company's competitive standing is supported by proprietary surface innovations, including Sublime Sync® and 3D Ink® texturing processes, as well as StepWise™ slip-resistant porcelain formulations. Large-scale European porcelain slab production is exported to North America to complement domestic quartz countertop offerings, providing commercial architects and residential builders with a comprehensive surface catalog that independent regional tile producers cannot replicate.

Mohawk's vertically integrated distribution infrastructure provides structural operational insulation. By managing regional warehousing and dedicated trucking fleets directly to independent dealers and home centers, Mohawk holds inventory close to end customers, dampening the volatility of channel prebuying. While returns on invested capital currently track close to the cost of equity (computed at 9.6246%) due to cyclical demand trough conditions, the company's manufacturing scale and distribution control sustain a narrow competitive moat.

Zysk ekonomiczny

In FY2025, Mohawk generated $489.8M in operating income on $10,785.4M of revenue, yielding an operating margin of 4.54%. Free cash flow reached $616.2M after $440.0M of capital expenditures. With a computed cost of equity of 9.6246%, economic profit generation is currently constrained by cyclical trough demand in residential remodeling, but normalized cash flow generation supports invested capital across the cycle.^1,5

6.5/ 10

Narrow

Sources of advantage

Scale Advantage in Ceramic Tile and Surface ManufacturingMohawk operates global manufacturing facilities producing large-scale porcelain slabs, commercial tiles, and residential flooring, generating $4,289.4M in Global Ceramic revenue in FY2025 with proprietary technologies including Sublime Sync®, 3D Ink®, and StepWise™.Moderate
Controlled Direct-to-Retailer Distribution NetworkManagement maintains dedicated distribution assets across primary geographic regions, holding inventory directly to service retail and builder partners, which dampens distributor prebuying bullwhip effects.Wide
Proprietary Product Formulations and Brand Intangibles

Znane zagrożenia dla przewagi
Zagrożenie	Powaga	Oś czasu	Złagodzenie
Low-cost Asian and Latin American ceramic and vinyl flooring import competition if trade tariff remedies are delayed or weakened.	medium	12 to 24 months	Expanding domestic manufacturing lines including a second countertop facility ahead of proposed 25% minimum ITC tariffs and differentiated product innovations.⁴

§5 Wrażliwość

Stopa dyskontowa

Wzrost terminalny

	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
8.6%	$120.59	$121.97	$123.47	$125.09	$126.85
9.1%	$116.70	$117.88	$119.14	$120.50	$121.97
9.6%	$113.25	$114.26	$115.33	$116.49	$117.73
10.1%	$110.16	$111.03	$111.96	$112.95	$114.00
10.6%	$107.36	$108.12	$108.93	$109.78	$110.69

Wiersze: stopa dyskontowa (Ke dla zysków; WACC dla przepływów pieniężnych). Kolumny: wzrost terminalny.

Wartość godziwa

Zmiana czasu trwania (lata)

	-5	-2	0	+2	+5
Wartość godziwa	115,03 USD	115,19 USD	115,33 USD	115,47 USD	115,65 USD

Czas trwania przewagi konkurencyjnej: 5 lat w wyróżnionym wariancie bazowym. Pozostałe założenia są stałe.

Sensitivity reference

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($115.33). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Klif FCF

A free-cash-flow drop test is not available in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.

§7 Drzewo decyzyjne wynikówEN

Powyżej

Upgrade the rating; Re-examine capital allocation and verify that margin expansion is driven by structural volume recovery rather than discrete tariff recoveries.

Wyzwalacz: Consolidated operating margin expanding substantially year-over-year accompanied by constant-currency volume expansion across North American and European flooring.

A sustained beat driven by organic volume growth and core price realization confirms that price and productivity gains exceed input inflation without relying on discrete tariff refunds.

Zgodnie

Maintain Hold; Maintain current allocation, re-examine input cost inflation trends, and monitor ongoing productivity programs.

Wyzwalacz: Operating performance aligning with management guidance ranges where price realization offsets underlying input cost headwinds.

An inline outcome validates that the business is navigating cyclical trough conditions with operational stability, but does not yet justify an upgraded valuation multiple while housing turnover remains subdued.

Poniżej

Downgrade the rating; Re-examine thesis durability, test downside sensitivity to residential turnover stagnation, and reduce position exposure if fundamental support weakens.

Wyzwalacz: Operating margin compressing year-over-year or constant-currency volume declines worsening across core ceramic and flooring lines.

A miss driven by cost inflation outstripping realization or accelerated volume losses indicates that customer resistance is limiting price execution, threatening earnings power.

Jakość wyników

Earnings quality is supported by healthy cash conversion, where operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income. Working capital requirements remain disciplined, and inventory balances are actively managed through controlled warehousing. However, investors must distinguish between recurring operational operating income and discrete items, such as periodic import tariff refunds, which temporarily flattered quarterly reported results.

Dynamika prognoz

Consensus earnings estimates remained flat following the second-quarter report before stabilizing into the second half as analysts balanced operational execution against persistent European inflation and high mortgage rates.

Metryki do obserwacji przed publikacją

Wskaźnik:
Price and Mix Realization vs Input Inflation
BieżącyUnderlying inflation stepped up in Q2 and is expected to see a similar step-up in Q3 before flowing through inventory into the second half.
Dlaczego to ważne
When selling price increases and productivity initiatives outpace energy and materials inflation, gross and operating profit expand, preserving cash generation per share.
Wskaźnik:
Flooring North America Unit Volumes and Market Share
BieżącyConstant-currency net sales increased in Q2 with estimated market share gains in both hard and soft surface categories.
Dlaczego to ważne
Unit volume growth absorbs fixed manufacturing overhead across domestic plants, driving operational leverage and expanding segment operating profits.

§8 Historia finansowa

Rachunek zysków i strat — ostatnich sześć okresów
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$11.20B	$11.74B	$11.14B	$10.84B	$10.79B	-0.9%
Gross profit	$3.27B	$2.94B	$2.71B	$2.69B	$2.57B	-5.8%
Operating income	$1.34B	$244.2M	$-291.9M	$693.5M	$489.8M	-22.2%
Net income	$1.03B	$25.2M	$-449.0M	$514.7M	$369.9M	-22.6%
EPS (diluted)	$14.94	$0.39	$-7.05	$8.09	$5.93	-20.6%
EBITDA	$1.94B	$831.3M	$-287.8M	$1.33B	$1.14B	-12.5%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$1.93B	$2.00B	$2.12B	$1.98B	$2.07B	+1.7%

Przyjęta prognoza roczna
Wskaźnik	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Revenue	$11.15B	$11.40B

Przepływy pieniężne

Mohawk generated $1,056.2M in operating cash flow in FY2025. Subtracting capital expenditures of $440.0M resulted in free cash flow of $616.2M. Working capital management has been disciplined despite inventory carrying costs associated with owned distribution fleets and customer warehousing. For FY2026, planned capital investments of approximately $460M remain aligned with operational depreciation of $652.6M, ensuring free cash flow conversion remains durable across the cycle.^4,5,6

Alokacja kapitału

Management balances capital allocation across three priorities: internal organic reinvestment, selective bolt-on capacity, and share repurchases. Capital reinvestment is strictly prioritized around high-return automation and domestic capacity expansion, exemplified by the ramp-up of a second domestic countertop manufacturing line. Mohawk does not pay a regular cash dividend, directing discretionary toward share buybacks to reduce diluted shares (62.4M diluted average shares in FY2025).

ROIC

The compression of returns on capital reflects severe fixed-cost under-absorption across tile and carpet manufacturing during the housing turnover downturn. Because current capital expenditures of $440.0M in FY2025 and guided ~$460M in 2026 remain below depreciation of $652.6M, invested capital is growing modestly, allowing operating leverage to drive return expansion as volumes rebound.

At cyclical trough conditions in FY2025, operating profit of $489.8M on $10,785.4M of revenue resulted in returns on capital lagging the computed cost of equity of 9.6246%. As operating margins normalize toward 6.8%-7.5% through FY2027-FY2030, ROIC is projected to recover above the cost of capital.

Flooring Rest of World Delivers Outsized Operating Profitability

In FY2025, Flooring Rest of World generated $212.9M of operating income on $2,857.5M of (7.45% margin), and reached an adjusted of 12.0% in Q2 2026 as price/mix of $41M exceeded cost inflation of $23M.

Najnowsze przychody10,8 mld USDCAGR przychodów +2,1%

Marża operacyjna4,5%10 okresów fiskalnych

Najnowsze wolne przepływy pieniężne616,2 mln USDFY2025

Dług netto1,2 mld USDFY2025

Struktura rachunku zysków i stratJak skala działalności przekłada się na raportowany zysk.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Dane historii finansowej
Przychody	10 785 400 000 USD
Koszt sprzedaży	8 210 700 000 USD
Zysk brutto	2 574 700 000 USD
Koszty operacyjne	2 084 900 000 USD
Zysk operacyjny	489 800 000 USD
Pozycje pozaoperacyjne i podatki	-119 900 000 USD
Zysk netto	369 900 000 USD

Podsumowanie bilansuJak wykazane aktywa są utrzymywane i finansowane w wybranym okresie.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Dane podziału bilansu
Aktywa ogółem	13 687 300 000 USD
Środki pieniężne	856 100 000 USD
Aktywa obrotowe	5 967 100 000 USD
Zobowiązania ogółem	5 308 600 000 USD
Zobowiązania krótkoterminowe	2 722 100 000 USD
Kapitał własny	8 378 700 000 USD

Most przepływów pieniężnychJak przepływy operacyjne przełożyły się na wolne przepływy pieniężne w FY2025.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Uzgodnienie przepływów operacyjnych

Zysk netto369,9 mln USDAmortyzacja+652,6 mln USDWynagrodzenie w akcjach+30 mln USDPozostałe korekty operacyjne+3,7 mln USDOperacyjne przepływy pieniężne1,1 mld USD

Uzgodnienie środków na początek i koniec

Środki pieniężne na początek666,6 mln USDOperacyjne przepływy pieniężne+1,1 mld USDPrzepływy inwestycyjne−441,9 mln USDPrzepływy finansowe−470 mln USDWpływ kursów walutowych+45,2 mln USDŚrodki pieniężne na koniec856,1 mln USD

1,1 mld USD − 440 mln USDWolne przepływy pieniężne 616,2 mln USD

Dane mostu przepływów pieniężnych
Zysk netto	369 900 000 USD
Wpływy operacyjne	1 056 200 000 USD
Amortyzacja	652 600 000 USD
Wynagrodzenie w akcjach	30 000 000 USD
Pozostałe korekty operacyjne	3 700 000 USD
Operacyjne przepływy pieniężne	1 056 200 000 USD
Dostępne środki pieniężne	1 768 000 000 USD
Środki pieniężne na początek	666 600 000 USD
Wpływ kursów walutowych	45 200 000 USD
Wydatki inwestycyjne	441 900 000 USD
Capex	440 000 000 USD
Pozostała działalność inwestycyjna	1 900 000 USD
Wydatki finansowe	470 000 000 USD
Skup akcji	149 800 000 USD
Spłata długu netto	284 200 000 USD
Pozostała działalność finansowa	36 000 000 USD
Środki pieniężne na koniec	856 100 000 USD
Przepływy inwestycyjne	-441 900 000 USD
Przepływy finansowe	-470 000 000 USD

Przychody według segmentu operacyjnegoUdział w łącznych przychodach za 2025-12-31.

Przychody według segmentu operacyjnegoUdział

Global Ceramic4,3 mld USD39,8%+1,5% r/r

Flooring NA3,6 mld USD33,7%−3,5% r/r

Flooring ROW2,9 mld USD26,5%+0,6% r/r

Źródło: SEC EDGAR · Złożono 2026-02-24 · SEC EDGAR

Dane o strukturze przychodów: Przychody według segmentu operacyjnego
Przychody według segmentu operacyjnego	Przychody	Udział	r/r
Global Ceramic	4,3 mld USD	39,8%	1,5%
Flooring NA	3,6 mld USD	33,7%	-3,5%
Flooring ROW	2,9 mld USD	26,5%	0,6%

Przychody i wynikiJak skala działalności przekłada się na raportowany zysk.

Gotówka i zadłużenieDostępna płynność wobec całkowitego zadłużenia.

Generowanie gotówkiPrzepływy operacyjne w porównaniu z wolnymi przepływami pieniężnymi.

RentownośćZmiany marży brutto, operacyjnej i netto.

Dane finansowe na określony moment użyte w analizie z 2026-10-15.

Dane historii finansowej
Okres	Przychody	EBITDA	Zysk netto	Operacyjne przepływy pieniężne	Wolne przepływy pieniężne	Capex	Amortyzacja	Wynagrodzenie w akcjach	Skup akcji	Wypłacone dywidendy	Emisja długu netto	Przepływy inwestycyjne	Przepływy finansowe	Środki pieniężne na początek	Środki pieniężne na koniec	Gotówka i inwestycje	Zadłużenie ogółem	Marża operacyjna	ROIC	WACC	Spread ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31	9 mld USD	1,7 mld USD	930,4 mln USD	1,3 mld USD	673,2 mln USD	672,1 mln USD	409,5 mln USD	35,1 mln USD	0 USD	0 USD	—	-672,1 mln USD	-641,6 mln USD	—	121,7 mln USD	121,7 mln USD	2,5 mld USD	14,3%	—	6,2%	—
2017-12-31	9,5 mld USD	1,8 mld USD	971,6 mln USD	1,2 mld USD	287,6 mln USD	906 mln USD	446,7 mln USD	36,3 mln USD	0 USD	0 USD	—	-1,2 mld USD	-7 mln USD	121,7 mln USD	84,9 mln USD	84,9 mln USD	2,8 mld USD	14,3%	—	6,2%	—
2018-12-31	10 mld USD	1,6 mld USD	861,7 mln USD	1,2 mld USD	387,2 mln USD	794,1 mln USD	521,8 mln USD	31,4 mln USD	274,1 mln USD	—	—	-1,3 mld USD	198 mln USD	84,9 mln USD	119,1 mln USD	119,1 mln USD	3,3 mld USD	11,0%	—	5,7%	—
2019-12-31	10 mld USD	1,4 mld USD	744,2 mln USD	1,4 mld USD	873,3 mln USD	545,5 mln USD	576,5 mln USD	23,6 mln USD	100,1 mln USD	1 tys. USD	—	-616 mln USD	-789,9 mln USD	119,1 mln USD	134,8 mln USD	177,3 mln USD	2,6 mld USD	8,3%	—	5,2%	—
2020-12-31	9,6 mld USD	1,2 mld USD	515,6 mln USD	1,8 mld USD	1,3 mld USD	425,6 mln USD	607,5 mln USD	19,7 mln USD	188,6 mln USD	—	—	-954,8 mln USD	-188,2 mln USD	134,8 mln USD	768,6 mln USD	1,3 mld USD	2,7 mld USD	6,7%	—	6,1%	—
2021-12-31	11,2 mld USD	1,9 mld USD	1 mld USD	1,3 mld USD	633 mln USD	676,1 mln USD	591,7 mln USD	25,7 mln USD	900,3 mln USD	—	—	-556,8 mln USD	-1,2 mld USD	768,6 mln USD	268,9 mln USD	591,9 mln USD	2,3 mld USD	11,9%	—	6,8%	—
2022-12-31	11,7 mld USD	831,3 mln USD	25,2 mln USD	669,2 mln USD	88,5 mln USD	580,7 mln USD	595,5 mln USD	22,4 mln USD	307,6 mln USD	—	528,2 mln USD	-625,3 mln USD	194,3 mln USD	268,9 mln USD	509,6 mln USD	667,6 mln USD	2,8 mld USD	2,1%	—	7,5%	—
2023-12-31	11,1 mld USD	-287,8 mln USD	-449 mln USD	1,3 mld USD	716,3 mln USD	612,9 mln USD	630,3 mln USD	20,9 mln USD	0 USD	—	-165,4 mln USD	-970,3 mln USD	-210,6 mln USD	509,6 mln USD	642,6 mln USD	642,6 mln USD	2,7 mld USD	-2,6%	—	—	—
2024-12-31	10,8 mld USD	1,3 mld USD	514,7 mln USD	1,1 mld USD	679,5 mln USD	454,4 mln USD	638,3 mln USD	27,5 mln USD	162,8 mln USD	—	-440,9 mln USD	-454,4 mln USD	-629,5 mln USD	642,6 mln USD	666,6 mln USD	666,6 mln USD	2,2 mld USD	6,4%	—	8,9%	—
2025-12-31	10,8 mld USD	1,1 mld USD	369,9 mln USD	1,1 mld USD	616,2 mln USD	440 mln USD	652,6 mln USD	30 mln USD	149,8 mln USD	—	-284,2 mln USD	-441,9 mln USD	-470 mln USD	666,6 mln USD	856,1 mln USD	856,1 mln USD	2 mld USD	4,5%	—	6,9%	—

§9 Porównanie wyceny z konkurentami

Mohawk Industries Inc.MHK

Cena / wartość godziwa

Wartość godziwa115,33 USDReport-date price119,97 USD

Data oceny15 paź 2026

Przewaga konkurencyjnaNarrow

Karta wyników inwestycyjnych65 / 100

Etsy Inc.ETSY

Cena / wartość godziwa

Wartość godziwa51,06 USDReport-date price82,93 USD

Data oceny15 paź 2026

Przewaga konkurencyjnaNarrow

Karta wyników inwestycyjnych58 / 100

Rollins, Inc.ROL

Cena / wartość godziwa

Wartość godziwa28,87 USDReport-date price32,26 USD

Data oceny12 paź 2026

Przewaga konkurencyjnaWide

Karta wyników inwestycyjnych66 / 100

Mohawk Industries Inc.MHK

Cena / wartość godziwa

Wartość godziwa115,33 USDReport-date price119,97 USD

Data oceny15 paź 2026

Przewaga konkurencyjnaNarrow

Karta wyników inwestycyjnych65 / 100

Mnożniki i rentowność konkurencji
Ticker	Nazwa	Kap. rynkowa	P/E	P/S	EV/EBITDA	ROE

Mohawk Industries Inc. (MHK) trades at 11.7x forward earnings against a peer median of 14.4x. Its EV/EBITDA of 5.8x compares with a peer median of 17.1x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Etsy Inc., Deckers Outdoor Corporation, Rollins Inc. and Darden Restaurants Inc., as of 2026-10-15.

§10 Branża i cyklEN

Faza cyklu

Trough

The building products industry exhibits a capex-to-revenue ratio of 5.9% and a capex-to-depreciation ratio of 1.11, indicating moderate capital reinvestment despite depressed end-market activity. For Mohawk, FY2025 capex of $440.0M and guided 2026 capex of approximately $460M compare against depreciation of $652.6M, reflecting disciplined capital rationing at cyclical lows.^4,6

Cykl byczy

A cyclical upswing in residential flooring demand is catalyzed by easing mortgage rates and unfreezing existing home sales, unlocking multi-year deferred remodeling projects across North America and Europe. In this phase, capacity utilization increases, fixed overhead is absorbed over higher volume, and pricing discipline drives operating margins above the industry benchmark operating margin of 6.9%.

Cykl niedźwiedzi

A prolonged cyclical downturn occurs when elevated borrowing costs freeze housing turnover, delaying discretionary home renovation. As industry capex-to-depreciation stands at 1.11 with capex-to-revenue at 5.9%, industry capacity remains committed while demand softens. Manufacturers face fixed-cost deleverage and inventory absorption lags, driving industry net margins toward the benchmark level of 1.1%.

Trendy długoterminowe
Trend	Wpływ	Uwaga
Aging Housing Stock and Pent-Up Remodeling Demand	positive	The median age of housing in North America and Western Europe continues to rise, creating non-discretionary replacement needs for worn floor coverings that cannot be indefinitely deferred.
Hard Surface Substitution and Performance Ceramic Adoption	positive	Consumer preference trends favor hard surface flooring, high-durability porcelain slabs, and premium waterproof laminate over traditional broadloom carpet, favoring Mohawk's technology investments in Sublime Sync® and StepWise™.

Pozycjonowanie

Mohawk is well positioned as an integrated global flooring leader with $10,785.4M in FY2025 revenue. Its geographic footprint spans North America ($5,813.9M), Europe ($3,366.6M), Latin America ($728.0M), and Rest of World ($876.9M). Controlled distribution assets and a second domestic countertop manufacturing line provide structural positioning to gain share as cyclical volume normalizes.^4,6,7

§11 Zarządzanie pozycjąEN

Wielkość pozycji

2-3%

Given the house rating of Hold and shares trading at $119.97 near Fair value of $115.33, existing investors should maintain a moderate allocation while new capital waits for an adequate margin of safety.

Ryzyko

Risk management focuses on monitoring the duration of the residential housing turnover freeze and customer price elasticity. Portfolio sizing should reflect cyclical exposure to durable building products, with position limits strictly enforced until mortgage rate normalization catalyzes a sustainable remodeling recovery.

Transze wejścia
Poziom	Działanie	Dlaczego
Disciplined entry below Fair value	Accumulate initial tranche	Provides an adequate margin of safety below Fair value, offering favorable downside protection.

Transze wyjścia
Poziom	Działanie
$138.62	Trim position and harvest gains

Kwartalne punkty kontrolne
Wskaźnik	Próg	Działanie
Consolidated operating margin	Sustained below 4.5% compared to FY2025 operating income of $489.8M on $10,785.4M revenue	Downgrade rating and lower normalized operating margin assumption across .

§14 Końcowa rekomendacjaEN

Działanie

Trzymaj

Mohawk Industries is rated Hold. The report was prepared with shares at $119.97 as of $119.97 (as of 2026-10-14), representing an implied return of -3.9% to the house Fair value of $115.33. While the business demonstrates operational resilience through price realization and international strength, current valuation appropriately captures near-term cyclical headwinds.

Long-term investors should hold existing positions and monitor residential turnover catalysts. A more attractive risk-reward entry would emerge if cyclical uncertainty temporarily pushes the shares into margin-of-safety territory below Fair value.

MHK	Mohawk Industries Inc.	$8.1B	11.7x	0.7x	5.8x	5.5%	—
ETSY	Etsy Inc.	$7.6B	12.0x	2.6x	20.3x	—	18.7%
DECK	Deckers Outdoor Corporation	$11.3B	9.9x	2.0x	7.7x	42.6%	15.2%
ROL	Rollins Inc.	$15.7B	25.4x	4.0x	19.3x	37.0%	18.8%
DRI	Darden Restaurants Inc.	$23.6B	16.8x	1.8x	14.9x	55.4%	9.9%

Is Mohawk Industries Inc. overvalued?

What is MHK's fair value?

Should I buy MHK now?

What are the biggest risks for MHK?

What is MHK's rating?

What archetype is MHK?

Mohawk Industries Inc.

Names readers of MHK also follow

Przegląd spółki

Consolidated operating margin

Narrow

Sources of advantage

Lenses that set Fair value

Discounted Earnings

Price and Mix Realization vs Input Inflation

Flooring North America Unit Volumes and Market Share

Sources

Flooring North America revenue growth

Free cash flow

Flooring Rest of World operating margin

Global Ceramic operating margin

Multi-stage Moat Fade

Forward Earnings

Owner Earnings

Checks and reference points

Reverse DCF

PEG-adjusted Peer

Flooring Rest of World Operating Margin

ITC Countertop Tariff Implementation and Domestic Ramp-Up

Working Capital Efficiency and Free Cash Flow Conversion