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MS trades against a final fair-value range of $89.88-$161.78, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $89.9, high $162, with mid-point at $128.
Stock analysis

MS fair value $90–$162

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Przeanalizowano: 2026-05-08Następna aktualizacja: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Financial
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Cena
$193.09
▼ -65.03 (-33.68%)
Wartość godziwa
$128
$90–$162
Rekomendacja
Sprzedaj
confidence 88/100
Potencjał wzrostu
-33.7%
upside to fair value
Margines Bezpieczeństwa
$108.85
MoS level · 15%
Kapitalizacja
$304.6B
P/E fwd 15.2
Awaryjny angielskiPL
Pokazujemy źródło angielskie podczas tłumaczenia
Ten raport nie został jeszcze przetłumaczony. Odśwież za kilka minut, gdy kolejka tłumaczeń go przetworzy.

§1 Podsumowanie wykonawcze

  • Composite fair value $128 with high case $162.
  • Implied downside of 33.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Financial.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$128
Margin of safety
-50.8%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$193.09Price
Low $89.88
Mid $128.06
High $161.78

MS trades against a final fair-value range of $89.88-$161.78, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Scale and brand prestige in
    Scale and brand prestige in Wealth Management ($5T+ client assets).
  • Top-three global ranking in Equities
    Top-three global ranking in Equities and Investment Banking.
  • Cycle upside
    Expanding global money supply, robust IPO/M&A activity, and rising equity markets driving AUM growth.

§2 Scenariusz negatywny

Under a severe stagflationary environment, the dual impact of plunging asset values on fee revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. and paralyzed M&A/capital markets activity could collapse EPSEarnings per shareNet income divided by weighted-average diluted shares outstanding. The headline accounting earnings figure on a per-share basis. towards the DDM floor of $71.45. Operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA. reverses violently.

Jak ta teza może się załamać

Severe Equity Market Drawdown

25%· Medium

A prolonged 20%+ market correction drives severe AUM attrition, compressing fee yields and crushing capital markets activity simultaneously.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
0-12 months

Wealth Management Margin Compression

15%· Low

Intensified competition for advisor talent and client cash sorting drives structurally lower net interest margins and fee compression.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
12-24 months

Regulatory Capital Penalties

10%· Low

Basel endgame or enhanced capital requirements force MS to hold significantly more equity, permanently impairing ROTCE.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
18-36 months
Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania
WskaźnikBieżącyPróg wyzwalania
Consecutive quarters of negative net new assets in Wealth Management.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sustained declines in net interest margin.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Surge in advisor attrition or elevated recruitment costs.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capital markets revenue underperforming peer benchmarks (GS).MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
ROTCE falling persistently below 15%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historia finansowa

Rachunek zysków i strat — ostatnich sześć okresów
PozycjaT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Okres2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Przychody$56.41B$50.21B$50.67B$57.62B$65.97B+4.0%
Zysk brutto——————
Zysk operacyjny——————
Zysk netto$15.03B$11.03B$9.09B$13.39B$16.86B+2.9%
EPS (rozwodniony)—$6.15$5.18$7.95$10.21+13.5%
EBITDA——————
R&D——————
SG&A$25.27B$23.96B$25.46B$27.14B$30.25B+4.6%

Wyniki jakości

OCF / Zysk netto
-1.06
>1 wskazuje wysoką jakość wyników
Bramka jakości księgowej
Pass
Bramka skorygowana o sektor
ROIC
—
Zwrot z zainwestowanego kapitału
Sekcja 3

Numbers analysis

Przepływy pieniężne

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Alokacja kapitału

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Subskrybenci indywidualni — od §411 kolejnych sekcji

Przeczytaj pełną analizę — 11 kolejnych sekcji.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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CASH FLOW FAQ

MS cash flow questions

  1. Free cash flow for MS (MS) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.

FAQ

MS — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MS looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $193 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $128 (range $89.9–$162), which implies roughly 33.7% downside to the midpoint.

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