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NOC trades against a final fair-value range of $486.28-$966.07, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $486, high $966, with mid-point at $726.
Stock analysis

NOC fair value $486–$966

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Przeanalizowano: 2026-05-13Następna aktualizacja: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Cena
$558.30
▲ +167.35 (+29.97%)
Wartość godziwa
$726
$486–$966
Rekomendacja
Zdecydowanie kupuj
confidence 88/100
Potencjał wzrostu
+30.0%
upside to fair value
Margines Bezpieczeństwa
$616.80
MoS level · 15%
Kapitalizacja
$79.3B
P/E fwd 18.5
Awaryjny angielskiPL
Pokazujemy źródło angielskie podczas tłumaczenia
Ten raport nie został jeszcze przetłumaczony. Odśwież za kilka minut, gdy kolejka tłumaczeń go przetworzy.

§1 Podsumowanie wykonawcze

  • Composite fair value $726 with high case $966.
  • Implied upside of 30.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$726
Margin of safety
+23.1%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$558.30Price
Low $486.28
Mid $725.65
High $966.07

NOC trades against a final fair-value range of $486.28-$966.07, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible Assets (Patents, clearances, proprietary
    Intangible Assets (Patents, clearances, proprietary tech)
  • Switching Costs (Long product life
    Switching Costs (Long product life cycles, high integration)
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating global defense spending and space commercialization.

§2 Scenariusz negatywny

A prolonged U.S. government continuing resolution combined with unexpected inflation in fixed-price development contracts.

Jak ta teza może się załamać

Severe Budget Sequestration

· Low

A deeply divided Congress enforces strict defense budget caps, halting modernization of the nuclear triad and capping space spending.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
1-3 Years

B-21 Cost Overruns

· Medium

The B-21 Raider program encounters severe technical hurdles leading to massive cost overruns on fixed-price lots.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
2-4 Years

Commercial Space Disruption

· Medium

Rapid advancements by commercial space entities fully disrupt Northrop's military space and satellite businesses.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
3-5 Years
Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania
WskaźnikBieżącyPróg wyzwalania
Operating margins compress below 10%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
B-21 Raider delivery schedule slips significantlyMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sentinel ICBM program faces funding cutsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow conversion drops below 1.0xMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Book-to-bill ratio falls below 1.0 for multiple quartersMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historia finansowa

Rachunek zysków i strat — ostatnich sześć okresów
PozycjaT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Okres2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Przychody$36.60B$39.29B$41.03B$41.95B+4.7%
Zysk brutto$7.47B$6.55B$8.36B$8.31B+3.6%
Zysk operacyjny$3.60B$2.54B$4.37B$4.28B+5.9%
Zysk netto$4.90B$2.06B$4.17B$4.18B-5.1%
EPS (rozwodniony)$31.47$13.53$28.34$29.08-2.6%
EBITDA$7.68B$4.23B$7.01B$7.21B-2.1%
R&D—————
SG&A$3.87B$4.01B$3.99B$4.03B+1.4%

Wyniki jakości

Wskaźnik Piotroski F
6 / 9
Złożony wynik jakości 0–9
Wskaźnik Altman Z
3.41
Ryzyko upadłości (>3 bezpieczne)
Wskaźnik Beneish M
-2.44
Ryzyko manipulacji wynikami
OCF / Zysk netto
1.14×
>1 wskazuje wysoką jakość wyników
Bramka jakości księgowej
Pass
Bramka skorygowana o sektor
ROIC
13.4%
Zwrot z zainwestowanego kapitału
Sekcja 3

Numbers analysis

Przepływy pieniężne

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Alokacja kapitału

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Subskrybenci indywidualni — od §411 kolejnych sekcji

Przeczytaj pełną analizę — 11 kolejnych sekcji.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

NOC — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NOC looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $558 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $726 (range $486–$966), which implies roughly 30.0% upside to the midpoint.

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