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PEP trades against a final fair-value range of $142.66-$206.45, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $143, high $206, with mid-point at $174.
Stock analysis

PEP fair value $143–$206

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Przeanalizowano: 2026-05-08Następna aktualizacja: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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Cena
$154.62
▲ +19.79 (+12.80%)
Wartość godziwa
$174
$143–$206
Rekomendacja
Kupuj
confidence 88/100
Potencjał wzrostu
+12.8%
upside to fair value
Margines Bezpieczeństwa
$148.25
MoS level · 15%
Kapitalizacja
$211.4B
P/E fwd 16.9
Awaryjny angielskiPL
Pokazujemy źródło angielskie podczas tłumaczenia
Ten raport nie został jeszcze przetłumaczony. Odśwież za kilka minut, gdy kolejka tłumaczeń go przetworzy.

§1 Podsumowanie wykonawcze

  • Composite fair value $174 with high case $206.
  • Implied upside of 12.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature dividend.
  • Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.
Fair value
$174
Margin of safety
+11.3%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$154.62Price
Low $142.66
Mid $174.41
High $206.45

PEP trades against a final fair-value range of $142.66-$206.45, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Deep global distribution networks covering
    Deep global distribution networks covering developed and emerging markets.
  • Immense brand equity and pricing
    Immense brand equity and pricing power across both beverage and snack portfolios.
  • Bull thesis
    Valuation synthesis intentionally anchors heavily on Forward Earnings to mitigate terminal value dominance.

§2 Scenariusz negatywny

A sustained macroeconomic downturn coupled with accelerated adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs leads to structural volume declines and an inability to offset cost inflation through pricing, heavily compressing operating margins and driving free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. below historical norms.

Jak ta teza może się załamać

GLP-1 Widespread Adoption

· Medium

Mass adoption of appetite-suppressing GLP-1 drugs permanently reduces per-capita consumption of high-calorie snacks and sugary beverages, breaking historical volume baselines.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
3-5 years

Total Loss of Pricing Power

· Low

Consumer fatigue over successive price hikes forces aggressive discounting and promotional activity to defend market share against private label brands, destroying gross margins.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-2 years

Supply Chain and Input Cost Shock

· Medium

Extreme agricultural commodity inflation and localized supply chain disruptions structurally elevate the cost base beyond what can be passed to consumers, permanently compressing operating margins.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
1-3 years
Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania
WskaźnikBieżącyPróg wyzwalania
Consecutive quarters of negative organic volume growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression exceeding 150 basis points.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Substantial shift in market share to private label brands.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant downward revisions in forward internal valuation cross-checks earnings.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unplanned increases in promotional spend to clear inventory.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historia finansowa

Rachunek zysków i strat — ostatnich sześć okresów
PozycjaT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Okres2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Przychody$86.39B$91.47B$91.85B$93.93B+2.8%
Zysk brutto$45.82B$49.59B$50.11B$50.86B+3.5%
Zysk operacyjny$11.36B$12.91B$12.92B$13.49B+5.9%
Zysk netto$8.91B$9.07B$9.58B$8.24B-2.6%
EPS (rozwodniony)$6.42$6.56$6.95$6.00-2.2%
EBITDA$14.92B$15.75B$16.68B$15.54B+1.4%
R&D—————
SG&A$34.46B$36.68B$37.19B$37.37B+2.7%

Wyniki jakości

Wskaźnik Piotroski F
5 / 9
Złożony wynik jakości 0–9
Wskaźnik Altman Z
3.59
Ryzyko upadłości (>3 bezpieczne)
Wskaźnik Beneish M
-2.56
Ryzyko manipulacji wynikami
OCF / Zysk netto
1.47×
>1 wskazuje wysoką jakość wyników
Bramka jakości księgowej
Pass
Bramka skorygowana o sektor
ROIC
12.8%
Zwrot z zainwestowanego kapitału
Sekcja 3

Numbers analysis

Przepływy pieniężne

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Alokacja kapitału

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Subskrybenci indywidualni — od §411 kolejnych sekcji

Przeczytaj pełną analizę — 11 kolejnych sekcji.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

PEP income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of PEP (PEP) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.

FAQ

PEP — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, PEP looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $155 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $174 (range $143–$206), which implies roughly 12.8% upside to the midpoint.

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