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Pfizer is navigating a complex transition defined by a massive post-COVID revenue cliff and impending Loss of Exclusivity (LOE) for several key blockbusters (e.g., Eliquis, Ibrance). While the stock offers an attractive 6.7% dividend yield, the payout is precariously covered by current Free Cash Flow. The thesis depends on Pfizer's ability to seamlessly integrate the Seagen acquisition, execute on its internal pipeline, and realize billions in cost savings to stabilize margins and defend the dividend. Fair value range: low $25.1, high $35.4, with mid-point at $30.2.
Stock analysis

PFE Pfizer Inc. fair value $30–$35

PFE
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Przeanalizowano: 2026-05-09Następna aktualizacja: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature dividendNYSE · Health Care
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Cena
$25.68
▲ +4.56 (+17.76%)
Wartość godziwa
$30
$30–$35
Rekomendacja
Kupuj
confidence 86/100
Potencjał wzrostu
+17.8%
upside to fair value
Margines Bezpieczeństwa
$25.70
buy below · 15%
Kapitalizacja
$146.4B
P/E fwd 9.0
Awaryjny angielskiPL
Pokazujemy źródło angielskie podczas tłumaczenia
Ten raport nie został jeszcze przetłumaczony. Odśwież za kilka minut, gdy kolejka tłumaczeń go przetworzy.

§1 Podsumowanie wykonawcze

  • Composite fair value $30 with high case $35.
  • Implied upside of 17.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 86/100 · Mature dividend.
  • Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.
Fair value
$30
Margin of safety
+15.1%
Confidence
86/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$25.68Price
FV $30.24
High $35.37

Pfizer is navigating a complex transition defined by a massive post-COVID revenue cliff and impending Loss of Exclusivity (LOE) for several key blockbusters (e.g., Eliquis, Ibrance). While the stock offers an attractive 6.7% dividend yield, the payout is precariously covered by current Free Cash Flow. The thesis depends on Pfizer's ability to seamlessly integrate the Seagen acquisition, execute on its internal pipeline, and realize billions in cost savings to stabilize margins and defend the dividend.

  • Global commercialization and distribution scale
    Global commercialization and distribution scale.
  • Acquired Seagen oncology pipeline provides
    Acquired Seagen oncology pipeline provides a specialized, high-barrier portfolio.
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerated FDA approvals and a resurgence in large-cap pharma M&A premiums.

§2 Scenariusz negatywny

A stress test applying zero terminal growthTerminal growthThe perpetual growth rate assumed in the Gordon-growth terminal-value calculation. Capped below long-run nominal GDP (typically 2.5–3.0% for developed-market firms). and peak generic erosion reduces fair valueFair valueOur composite estimate of intrinsic per-share value, blended across DCF, exit-multiple, and reverse-DCF methods. Reported as a low/mid/high range to capture model uncertainty. below $24. The $64B debt load and 130%+ payout ratioPayout ratioDividends per share divided by EPS. Measures how much of earnings the company distributes versus retains for reinvestment. leave zero margin for error in FCFFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. generation.

Jak ta teza może się załamać

Dividend Cut Forced by Cash Squeeze

· Medium

FCF deteriorates further as generic competition accelerates, forcing a dividend cut to service the $64B debt load.

FV impact
Severe contraction toward the $23.70 moat-fade level.
Trigger
12-24 Months

Seagen Integration Failure

· Low

The $43B Seagen acquisition fails to deliver anticipated oncology synergies and revenue targets, leaving a permanent growth void.

FV impact
Loss of structural terminal growth, resetting multiples to low teens.
Trigger
2-3 Years

Internal Pipeline Attrition

· Medium

High failure rates in late-stage clinical trials prevent replacement of the Eliquis and Ibrance revenue cliffs.

FV impact
Multi-stage moat fade materializes, dropping fair value below $25.
Trigger
3-5 Years
Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania
WskaźnikBieżącyPróg wyzwalania
Consecutive quarters of declining operating cash flow.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Seagen oncology asset sales missing management guidance.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unexpected clinical trial failures in late-stage assets.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression accelerating beyond the 26% baseline.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Management commentary hinting at capital allocation shifts away from the dividend.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historia finansowa

Rachunek zysków i strat — ostatnich sześć okresów
PozycjaT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Okres2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Przychody$81.29B$101.18B$59.55B$63.63B$62.58B-6.3%
Zysk brutto$50.47B$66.83B$34.60B$45.78B$46.51B-2.0%
Zysk operacyjny$20.24B$37.16B$4.22B$14.83B$15.79B-6.0%
Zysk netto$21.98B$31.37B$2.12B$8.03B$7.77B-22.9%
EPS (rozwodniony)$3.85$5.47$0.37$1.41$1.36-22.9%
EBITDA$30.79B$41.03B$9.56B$18.13B$16.78B-14.1%
R&D$13.83B$12.38B$10.87B$10.93B$12.05B-3.4%
SG&A$12.70B$13.68B$14.77B$14.73B$13.79B+2.1%

Wyniki jakości

Wskaźnik Piotroski F
8 / 9
Złożony wynik jakości 0–9
Wskaźnik Altman Z
1.98
Ryzyko upadłości (>3 bezpieczne)
Wskaźnik Beneish M
-2.71
Ryzyko manipulacji wynikami
OCF / Zysk netto
1.51×
>1 wskazuje wysoką jakość wyników
Bramka jakości księgowej
Pass
Bramka skorygowana o sektor
ROIC
5.8%
Zwrot z zainwestowanego kapitału
Sekcja 3

Numbers analysis

Alokacja kapitału

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Subskrybenci indywidualni — od §411 kolejnych sekcji

Przeczytaj pełną analizę — 11 kolejnych sekcji.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

PFE — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, PFE looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $25.7 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $30.2 (range $25.1–$35.4), which implies roughly 17.8% upside to the midpoint.

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