Za zgodą użytkownika stosujemy ograniczoną analitykę chroniącą prywatność, aby zrozumieć, które ścieżki badawcze działają. Nie używamy trackerów reklamowych ani nagrywania sesji. Ten wybór można zmienić w Preferencjach. Przeczytaj Politykę prywatności.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
TMO — frequently asked questions
Is Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-21, TMO looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 656 USD versus our fair value of 318 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 393 USD. That implies roughly 51.5% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-21, gives TMO a fair value of 318 USD and a potential value of 393 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy TMO now?
Our latest published rating for TMO, analyzed 2026-09-21, is Sell. Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 656 USD versus fair value of 318 USD; potential value is 393 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for TMO?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-21 documents Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is TMO's rating?
Our latest published rating for TMO, analyzed 2026-09-21, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 318 USD, the potential value of 393 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (656 USD).
Ten raport nie został jeszcze przetłumaczony. Odśwież za kilka minut, gdy kolejka tłumaczeń go przetworzy.
§1 Podsumowanie wykonawczeEN
Odpowiedź w 30 sekundSell
Cena a wartość
Cena
$656.45
Wartość godziwa
$318.21
Wartość potencjalna
$393.17
Stan na
2026-09-21
Dlaczego to może zadziałać
Accelerated commercial adoption of advanced bioproduction technologies and rapid recovery in pharmaceutical R&D budgets driving organic growth above 6% and supporting Potential value of USD 393.17.
We rate Thermo Fisher Scientific as a Sell because the report-date price of USD 656.45 sits 106.3% above our Fair value of USD 318.21, reflecting an implied growth rate that far exceeds realistic life sciences tools demand.4
The house rating is Sell. For an ordinary investor, this rating means the stock is heavily overvalued relative to its long-term fundamental earnings power, indicating that capital should be allocated elsewhere and existing holdings should be trimmed or sold.
The report was prepared at a price of USD 656.45 on September 21, 2026. That price sits 106.3% above our Fair value of USD 318.21 and 66.9% above our Potential value of USD 393.17, indicating an upside of -51.53% to Fair value.
The primary risk to the business is a prolonged retrenchment in biopharma customer research spending. If pharmaceutical sponsors constrain capital budgets and slow laboratory consumable replenishment, organic revenue growth would fall below 1.5%. This would depress operating cash flow and increase refinancing friction across the company's total debt obligations.4,5,8
The business can continue compounding value through its commanding distribution scale in laboratory supplies and technological differentiation in analytical tools. Sustained bioproduction momentum and mass spectrometry innovation expand free cash flow generation ($6,293M in FY2025), supporting our Potential value of USD 393.17 per share under favorable industry conditions.6,8
Scale and Laboratory Distribution Leadership
Thermo Fisher's Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services generated $23,984M in FY2025 revenue (53.8% of sales), anchoring deep customer integration and recurring consumables cash flow.8
High switching costs and technological leadership in mass spectrometry and chromatography support a 22.98% operating margin in Analytical Instruments.8
High Customer Switching Costs
Proprietary mass spectrometry and chromatography instruments embed into validated pharmaceutical testing workflows, requiring substantial customer retraining and regulatory re-filing to substitute.5,8
Rekomendacja domu
Sell, because Thermo Fisher's valuation trades at an unsustainable 106.3% premium over our Fair value of USD 318.21, leaving investors exposed to severe downside despite solid underlying business quality.4
Przegląd spółki
THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC. must develop new products, adapt to rapid and significant technological change, respond to introductions of new products and services by competitors and maintain quality to remain competitive. Its growth strategy includes significant investment in and expenditures for product and service development. THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC. sells its products and services in several industries that are characterized by rapid and significant technological changes, frequent new product and service introductions and enhancements and evolving industry standards. Through its Analytical Instruments segment, the company provides a broad offering of instruments and the supporting consumables, software and services that are used for a range of applications. These products and services are used by customers in pharmaceutical, biotechnology, academic, government, environmental and other research and industrial markets, as well as the clinical laboratory.
This segment includes three primary businesses: chromatography and mass spectrometry, chemical analysis, and electron microscopy.
§2 Scenariusz negatywnyEN
Under a severe joint macroeconomic and financing stress test, consolidated revenue growth decelerates 5 percentage points to -0.39% in Year 1 while operating margin contracts from 17.38% to 14.38% and WACC escalates from 8.22% to 10.22%. With total debt at $42,548,998,144 and annual interest expense of $1,419M in FY2025, compressed operating income of $6,407M diminishes free cash flow generation from $6,293M toward $3,800M. The replayed driver shocks indicate that a 2pp discount rate increase alone reduces fcff_dcfintrinsic value by 35.0%, driving equity valuation down toward the downside range floor of $253.85.
Tariff friction and distribution cost inflation compress consolidated operating margin
Jak ta teza może się załamać
Biopharma research spending freeze and customer budget cuts slowing organic revenue growth
Consolidated revenue was $44,556M in FY2025 with biopharma services contributing $23,984M. Full-year 2026 organic revenue growth is guided at 3% to 4%. If customer biopharma funding freezes, revenue growth falling below 1.5% YoY over a 12-month horizon impairs composite valuation by 25%.5,7,8
Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania
Pięć zdarzeń, które osłabiłyby naszą tezę inwestycyjną.
A drop below 1.5% confirms that customer biopharma capital constraints are freezing order books, falsifying the core volume growth driver in Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services.
Thermo Fisher Scientific possesses a Wide economic moat anchored by commanding scale in biopharma laboratory supplies and high switching costs across proprietary analytical instrumentation. Through its Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services segment, the company generated $23,984M in FY2025 revenue, accounting for 53.8% of consolidated sales ($44,556M). By acting as an end-to-end partner spanning basic research consumables, specialized reagents, contract development, and clinical trial logistics, Thermo Fisher creates deep structural customer integration that makes supplier replacement operationally prohibitive for pharmaceutical sponsors.
In Analytical Instruments, which contributed $7,554M in revenue and $1,736M in operating income (22.98% margin), the moat is sustained by intellectual property and technical complexity. Instruments such as orbitrap mass spectrometers and high-performance chromatography systems are embedded in regulated drug discovery workflows. Displacing these platforms requires extensive staff retraining, standard operating procedure modifications, and regulatory revalidation. While peers such as Agilent operate at higher gross margins (53.65% vs consolidated 40.93%) and 25.56% operating margin due to pure-play instrument exposure, Thermo Fisher's unmatched distribution breadth locks in recurring high-margin consumables demand.
The durability of this advantage is further evidenced by a 10-year competitive advantage period. Consolidated operating income reached $7,746M in FY2025 and generated $6,293M in free cash flow, reflecting consistent cash conversion that continuously funds internal research and development ($1,397M in FY2025) to defend its technological lead.
Zysk ekonomiczny
Consolidated ROIC of 8.64% generates positive economic spread above computed WACC of 8.22% on an invested capital base of $92,792M, generating $7,746M operating income in FY2025 and $6,293M free cash flow.2,6,7
9/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01High Customer Switching Costs — Proprietary mass spectrometry and chromatography instruments embed into validated pharmaceutical testing workflows, requiring substantial customer retraining and regulatory re-filing to substitute.Wide
02Scale and Distribution Advantage — Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services generated $23,984M in FY2025 revenue (53.8% of consolidated total), providing an unmatched global channel that captures customer vendor consolidation trends.Wide
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($318.21). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $6.2B after modeled reinvestment of $1.5B, with terminal value at 76.6% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The Base case represents our modal expectation where Thermo Fisher delivers steady operational execution in line with management guidance. Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services maintains steady recurring demand, while Analytical Instruments sustains moderate single-digit expansion. This path yields our Fair value of $318.21 (implied return of -51.5% at 60.0% probability) versus $656.45 as of $656.45 (as of 2026-09-21). Disconfirmation would appear if customer biopharma spending decelerates below guided ranges or tariff friction erodes gross margin.
Bioprocessing and clinical research organic growth accelerates above baseline guidance
Analytical instrument operating margins expand on high-margin mass spectrometry adoption
§7 Drzewo decyzyjne wynikówEN
Powyżej
Maintain Sell; Re-examine operating margin expansion in analytical instruments and verify whether accelerated order books justify lifting the long-term cash flow trajectory, while maintaining disciplined underweight exposure.
Wyzwalacz: Consolidated revenue and diluted EPS exceeding upper guidance ranges, driven by accelerated bioproduction order volume and analytical instrument placements
Even if operational results exceed expectations, the substantial premium of $656.45 over Fair value $318.21 leaves shares heavily overvalued, meaning an operational beat does not close the valuation gap.
Zgodnie
Maintain Sell; Monitor biopharma services book-to-bill ratios and capital expenditure trends across major pharmaceutical clients while retaining existing position limits.
Meeting guided targets confirms that organic compounding proceeds along base expectations, but because $656.45 remains elevated relative to Fair value $318.21, the thesis is unchanged.
Poniżej
Maintain Sell; Review customer cancellation rates and debt service coverage, re-evaluating whether operational deterioration threatens the lower bound of our fair value range.
Wyzwalacz: Revenue or diluted EPS falling below lower guidance bounds driven by biopharma procurement freezes or margin compression
An operational shortfall would accelerate multiple contraction toward Fair value $318.21, validating downside risks in laboratory distribution and commercial instruments.
Jakość wyników
Cash flow generation strongly confirms reported net income, with operating cash flow reliably exceeding GAAP profits. Working capital requirements remain disciplined, and capital expenditures are primarily directed toward maintenance needs, leaving high discretionary cash flow. Operating margins reflect stable cost execution across manufacturing facilities, though the heavy mix of lower-margin laboratory supplies distribution structurally caps consolidated profitability relative to pure-play instrumentation peers.
Thermo Fisher maintains exceptional cash flow characteristics typical of a mature life sciences compounder. In FY2025, operating cash flow was $7,818M and capital expenditures were $1,525M, yielding free cash flow of $6,293M. Free cash flow conversion stood at 93.9% of GAAP net income ($6,704M). Maintenance capex is estimated at 75% of total capital outlays ($1,144M), highlighting the asset-light nature of its commercial distribution network. Cash flow to firm remains robust at $6,173M in FY2026 and $6,489M in FY2027 under the approved schedule.6,7
Alokacja kapitału
Capital deployment is disciplined and balanced across strategic M&A, share repurchases, debt service, and dividends. In FY2025, the company deployed $3,000M toward share repurchases and $636M toward dividends, while retiring shares at a ~1.3% annual pace (diluted shares declined from 388M in FY2023 to 378M in FY2025). However, with total debt of $42,548,998,144 and of $29,067M carrying annual of $1,419M in FY2025, debt repayment will require a larger share of as existing notes mature in a higher rate environment (pre-tax 5.76%).
Consolidated ROIC of 8.64% reflects mature post-acquisition integration, stabilizing after pandemic highs (operating margin normalized to 17.38% in FY2025). Invested capital stands at $92,792M against $49,362M in goodwill and $110,343M in total assets in FY2025.
Current ROIC of 8.64% generates a modest positive economic spread above computed WACC of 8.22%, but is virtually identical to the moderate cost of equity of 8.72%, confirming disciplined but moderate economic value creation.
Segment Profitability Disparity Between Distribution and Proprietary Instruments
Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services generated $23,984M revenue (53.8% of total) at a 13.97% ($3,350M ), whereas Analytical Instruments achieved a 22.98% operating margin ($1,736M operating income on $7,554M revenue).
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) trades at 23.7x forward earnings against a peer median of 27.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 23.8x compares with a peer median of 23.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Danaher Corporation, Agilent Technologies Inc., IDEXX Laboratories Inc. and Illumina Inc., as of 2026-09-21.
§10 Branża i cyklEN
Faza cyklu
Contraction
Industry benchmark capex/revenue stands at 4.5% and capex/depreciation is 0.80x, while Thermo Fisher's capex was $1,525M against $2,780M depreciation (0.55x capex/depreciation ratio) on $44,556M revenue. Because specific supplier capacity and lead-time data are unavailable, the cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.7
Cykl byczy
In an industry upcycle, biotech funding recovers swiftly, pharmaceutical pipelines expand into advanced modalities (cell and gene therapies, mRNA), and academic budgets unfreeze, accelerating organic revenue growth to 6-8% and driving operating leverage across bioproduction and analytical instruments.
Cykl niedźwiedzi
In an extended industry downturn, constrained venture funding and pharma cost containment freeze capital equipment orders, depressing analytical instrument sales and limiting biopharma consumables replenishment, capping organic top-line growth at 1-3%.
Trendy długoterminowe
Trend
Wpływ
Uwaga
Biologics and Advanced Therapy Pipeline Expansion
positive
Complex therapeutics require higher bioproduction volumes and sophisticated analytical testing, driving long-term demand for biopharma services ($23,984M in FY2025) and mass spectrometry.
Vendor Consolidation in Life Sciences Procurement
positive
Global pharmaceutical sponsors are consolidating vendor lists to reduce supply chain overhead, favoring Thermo Fisher's integrated end-to-end catalog and CDMO capabilities over single-point competitors.
Pozycjonowanie
Thermo Fisher is uniquely positioned as the largest full-suite partner across life sciences tools, diagnostics, and contract development services. While specialized peers like Agilent (25.56% operating margin) and Danaher (19.78% operating margin) maintain higher segment margins, Thermo Fisher's $44,556M revenue scale and distribution breadth provide unmatched customer access, though exposing consolidated results to distribution mix headwinds.3,7
§11 Zarządzanie pozycjąEN
Wielkość pozycji
0%
Under a Sell rating with shares trading at $656.45 versus our synthesized Fair value of $318.21, zero allocation is recommended for fundamental value portfolios. Capital is better preserved outside the position until market price re-aligns with intrinsic valuation.4
Ryzyko
Investors currently holding Thermo Fisher should utilize market strength to reduce or eliminate exposure. Because shares trade at 23.7x forward P/E and embed an aggressive 13.12% compound growth rate in reverse DCF, any macroeconomic disappointment or procurement slowdown among biopharma customers exposes investors to severe valuation multiple re-rating without an adequate margin of safety.
Transze wejścia
Poziom
Działanie
Dlaczego
$318.21 (Fair value midpoint)
Re-evaluate valuation fundamentals and monitor whether market pricing reflects an adequate margin of safety before considering entry
Midpoint of multi-model valuation synthesis where long-term return on invested capital balances cost of capital.
Assess potential entry for defensive compounder portfolios if terminal growth assumptions remain intact
Transze wyjścia
Poziom
Działanie
$656.45 (September 21, 2026 price)
Liquidate existing holdings or trim overweight positions to capture market premium
$663.57 (52-week high)
Complete exit of all remaining speculative allocations
Trading at 23.7x forward P/E and an implied compound growth rate of 13.12%, shares offer poor risk-adjusted returns against guided 3-4% organic growth.4,5
Long-Term Compounder
Avoid
Even with a 10-year competitive advantage period and dominant laboratory distribution, purchasing at a 106.3% premium to Fair value severely impairs 5- to 10-year holding returns.
Value Investor
Avoid
Shares trade at an extreme premium to our comprehensive fair value synthesis of USD 318.21, offering zero margin of safety.
§14 Końcowa rekomendacjaEN
Działanie
Sprzedaj
We recommend selling or avoiding Thermo Fisher Scientific at the report-date price of USD 656.45, which sits 106.3% above our Fair value of USD 318.21 per share.4
Although Thermo Fisher possesses an exceptional economic moat in life sciences tools and strong free cash flow generation ($6,293M in FY2025), the current market valuation reflects an unrealistic 13.12% implied growth rate that leaves shareholders highly vulnerable to multiple compression.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Private notes
Visible only to you. Synced to this device.
0 chars
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-09-21 · Published 2026-09-21 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 2 figuresCited in Historia finansowa
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Higher debt refinancing yields increase enterprise capital costs
The Bear case captures a scenario where customer biopharma capital budgets freeze, academic grant allocations retrench, and international trade tariffs compress operating profitability across global distribution channels. In this environment, organic growth stalls and valuation multiples compress toward historical recessionary multiples. Disconfirmation would occur if quarterly order intake in biopharma services rebounds robustly.
FV impact
-1.8%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Reported operating income of $7,746M on $44,556M revenue was 17.38% in FY2025, while Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services operated at 13.97%. Gross margin fell from 41.28% to 40.93%. A 3pp drop in consolidated margin to 14.38% over 18 months severely cuts operating profit and impairs fair value by 30%.7,8
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 18 months
Refinancing of debt in a higher rate environment elevating WACC
Total debt is $42,548,998,144 with pre-tax cost of debt 5.76% and current computed WACC of 8.22%. Over a 24-month refinancing window, a 2pp increase in discount rate to 10.22% reduces fcff_dcffair value by 35.0% and multi_stage_moat_fade fair value by 22.6%.2,4
A decline below 15.0% indicates that tariff inflation across $22,316M in non-US revenue and biopharma services price discounting are overwhelming instrument pricing power.
Margin erosion in the largest revenue segment ($23,984M) signals price erosion from commercial distribution peers and customer procurement pressure.
Obecnie:13.97% (FY2025)
Alarm, jeśli< 12.00%
— Extensive patent portfolio and established instrument brand equity drive 22.98% operating margins in Analytical Instruments ($1,736M operating income on $7,554M revenue in FY2025).
Moderate
International Trade Tariffs and Export Controls
medium
12-18 months
Extensive localized fulfillment and manufacturing hubs across Europe ($11,826M revenue) and Asia Pacific ($8,101M revenue).8
Peer Price Competition in Analytical Instruments
low
24-36 months
Continuous R&D reinvestment ($1,397M in FY2025) maintaining instrument technological differentiation against peers like Agilent and Danaher.3
50,4%
Method
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 76.6% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Academic and government funding in overseas markets rebounds strongly
In the Bull case, bioprocessing order velocity accelerates swiftly, proprietary analytical instrumentation captures greater market share across Asian and European clinical laboratories, and academic spending rebounds robustly. Under these conditions, valuation expands toward $393.17 representing an expected return of -40.1% at a modeled probability of 20.0%. Confirmation requires consecutive quarters of organic revenue expansion exceeding upper guidance bands and operating margin expansion in analytical tools.
BieżącyDemonstrating premium profitability well above corporate consolidated averages
Dlaczego to ważne
Reflects instrument pricing power and hardware technological differentiation; margin erosion indicates competitive encroachment by peer chromatography and mass spectrometry platforms.
Consolidated margins are heavily diluted by laboratory consumables and distribution, making aggregate operating margins (17.38%) structurally lower than instrument peers like Agilent at 25.56%.
High Cash Flow Conversion Anchored by Low Capital Intensity
Strong cash generation provides ample liquidity to service $42,548,998,144 in total debt while funding consistent share repurchases and R&D ($1,397M in FY2025).
Analyst estimates project revenue growing from $47,873M in FY2026 to $50,325M in FY2027 with diluted EPS reaching $27.53, but the house forecast anticipates top-line growth decelerating from 7.44% in FY2026 to 3.0% by FY2030.
EPS expansion relies increasingly on buybacks (~1.3% annual share count reduction) rather than organic margin expansion beyond the 17.38% baseline.
Illumina, Inc.ILMN
Cena / wartość godziwa
Wartość godziwa119,53 USDReport-date price259,19 USD
Data oceny
Przewaga konkurencyjnaWide
Karta wyników inwestycyjnych64 / 100
Marża
TMO
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
$240.9B
23.7x
5.2x
23.8x
13.5%
—
DHR
Danaher Corporation
$150.4B
23.0x
6.0x
21.5x
7.6%
19.8%
A
Agilent Technologies Inc.
$45.7B
24.0x
6.2x
22.4x
21.0%
25.6%
IDXX
IDEXX Laboratories Inc.
$40.8B
30.9x
9.0x
25.4x
74.2%
35.0%
ILMN
Illumina Inc.
$36.4B
39.5x
8.1x
32.5x
32.3%
21.1%
Geopolitical Trade and Supply Chain Friction
negative
Tariff risks and regional technology restrictions create friction across international shipments, directly affecting $22,316M in non-US revenues (50.1% of sales) and China operations.
Reflects conservative DCF pricing under elevated discount rates and stressed biopharma spending conditions.
