Za zgodą użytkownika stosujemy ograniczoną analitykę chroniącą prywatność, aby zrozumieć, które ścieżki badawcze działają. Nie używamy trackerów reklamowych ani nagrywania sesji. Ten wybór można zmienić w Preferencjach. Przeczytaj Politykę prywatności.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
TRMB — frequently asked questions
Is Trimble Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-20, TRMB looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 57,6 USD versus our fair value of 28,3 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 39,1 USD. That implies roughly 50.9% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-20, gives TRMB a fair value of 28,3 USD and a potential value of 39,1 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Trimble Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy TRMB now?
Our latest published rating for TRMB, analyzed 2026-09-20, is Sell. Trimble Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 57,6 USD versus fair value of 28,3 USD; potential value is 39,1 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for TRMB?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-20 documents Trimble Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is TRMB's rating?
Our latest published rating for TRMB, analyzed 2026-09-20, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 7/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 28,3 USD, the potential value of 39,1 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (57,6 USD).
Ten raport nie został jeszcze przetłumaczony. Odśwież za kilka minut, gdy kolejka tłumaczeń go przetworzy.
§1 Podsumowanie wykonawczeEN
Odpowiedź w 30 sekundSell
Cena a wartość
Cena
$57.56
Wartość godziwa
$28.25
Wartość potencjalna
$39.08
Stan na
2026-09-18
Dlaczego to może zadziałać
Accelerated adoption of cloud-connected workflows in the AECO segment expands subscription annual recurring revenue above 15% annually, lifting consolidated operating margin past 22% and driving fair value toward the Potential value of $39.08.
Co zmieniłoby naszą ocenę
Consolidated operating margin dropping below 13.50% over the next 12 months.
We rate Trimble a Sell based on a fundamental Fair value of $28.25 against the report-date price of $57.56 on September 18, 2026, representing an upside of -50.92%.3
A Sell rating means investors should not commit new capital to Trimble and should liquidate or avoid common share positions. The shares carry an upside of -50.92% to fundamental valuation, indicating substantial capital loss risk at prevailing market levels.3
The report was prepared at a share price of $57.56 on September 18, 2026. This price stands 103.8% above our fundamental Fair value of $28.25 and 47.3% above our Potential value of $39.08. Even under an optimistic operating turnaround, the report-date price exceeds what business fundamentals justify.
The central risk that could further depress operating performance is hardware pricing pressure and civil construction contraction. If specialized instrument competitors force Field Systems ($1,539.5M revenue in FY2025) into discounting or commercial construction stalls, consolidated operating margin would fall below 13.50% against 16.50% reported in FY2025. Investors would observe this through quarterly gross margin contraction and rising inventory across dealer channels.4,5
The primary operational driver that could lift cash generation is accelerated cloud software adoption in the architectural, engineering, construction, and owners segment, which generated $1,498.6M in FY2025. If subscription annual recurring revenue expands above 15% annually, high gross margins of 69.07% would expand consolidated operating margins past 22%, lifting value toward our Potential value of $39.08. However, this potential remains well below the report-date price of $57.56.3,4,5
Proprietary GNSS algorithms and deep field-to-office software connectivity protect surveying and construction workflows against competitors.2,5
Switching Costs
Deep integration of Trimble software platforms, including Tekla, SketchUp, and Viewpoint, directly into architectural, engineering, construction, and owner workflows creates substantial procedural switching barriers for enterprise contractors. In FY2025, the AECO segment generated $1,498.6M in revenue, representing 41.8% of consolidated top-line sales.5
Rekomendacja domu
Trimble is rated Sell because the share price of $57.56 on September 18, 2026, trades at a 103.8% premium to our fundamental Fair value of $28.25, leaving substantial downside risk despite ongoing software transition efforts.3
Przegląd spółki
Today’s work requires solutions for an interconnected world, no matter the industry. This has driven Trimble to move increasingly from point solutions to connected workflows and to industry ecosystems enabled by its industry platforms and access to industry data—all boosted by its AI capabilities. Trimble offers a diverse range of coherent capabilities that connect applications, data, workflows, and mobile technologies to more efficiently orchestrate work, often in mixed stakeholder, mixed user, and mixed fleet environments. The Field Systems segment provides software and hardware products and services to private, commercial, and government customers. The businesses within Field Systems serve surveying and mapping professionals, civil construction, building construction field services, and positioning systems.
TRIMBLE INC. sells and distribute its products in the Field Systems segment through a global network of independent distribution partners, and increasingly through direct and digital channels. •Deliver customer outcomes that can enable productivity, quality, safety, transparency, and environmental sustainability. Across its business segments, its technological solutions deliver customer value through digital transformation, replacing legacy methods to improve productivity, first-time quality, worker safety, operational transparency, and sustainability.
§2 Scenariusz negatywnyEN
Under a comprehensive downside stress test, a synchronized contraction in global commercial construction and European infrastructure activity reduces Field Systems and Transportation demand, pushing consolidated revenue growth below -1.84%. In response to aggressive competitor discounting, gross margins contract, driving consolidated operating margin below the danger threshold of 13.50%. Concurrently, higher credit spreads and debt refinancing on Trimble's $1,459.3M total debt obligation elevate WACC above 11.43%. This combination curtails free cash flow generation, dropping the valuation toward the lower band of $23.45.
Commercial and infrastructure construction slowdown reduces demand for positioning hardware and delays new software seats.
Competitive pricing pressure compresses gross margins across surveying and civil engineering product lines.
Refinancing existing debt obligations occurs at higher yields, increasing cost of capital and discount rates.
The Bear scenario incorporates prolonged macroeconomic contractions across commercial construction and European infrastructure markets. Hardware discounting against specialized measurement peers compresses gross margins, while civil construction project deferrals suppress equipment demand in Field Systems, stalling margin recovery and lowering cash conversion.
Historical GAAP EBIT margin was 11.81% in FY2023 and 16.50% in FY2025. Peer Fortive maintains an operating margin of 19.14% and Keysight maintains 25.68%. If pricing competition forces Field Systems ($1,539.5M revenue) into discounting, consolidated operating margin drops below 13.5%.4,5
FV impact
-16%
Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania
Pięć zdarzeń, które osłabiłyby naszą tezę inwestycyjną.
01
operating_margin
Operating margin dropping below 13.50% indicates that hardware price discounting in Field Systems or cost absorption friction is overriding software operating leverage.
Obecnie:16.50% (FY2025)
Alarm, jeśli<13.50%
02
§3 Przewaga konkurencyjnaEN
Narrow
Trimble's economic moat is rated Narrow, supported by strong customer switching costs in construction and surveying workflows and backed by specialized positioning algorithms and brand equity. In FY2025, the company generated $2,477.9M in gross profit, representing a gross margin of 69.07% on $3,587.3M of consolidated revenue. Customer retention is reinforced by the high procedural cost of replacing connected office-to-field software systems once engineering teams and trade contractors standardize on Trimble's modeling and layout platforms.
The durability of this advantage is challenged by cyclical hardware exposure and peer capabilities. Competitors such as Fortive maintain gross margins of 63.23% and operating margins of 19.14%, while Keysight achieves operating margins of 25.68%. Because Field Systems represents 42.9% of revenue ($1,539.5M) and Transportation represents 15.3% ($549.2M), 58.2% of Trimble's business remains exposed to cyclical equipment investment cycles, bounding the economic moat to a narrow designation rather than a wide one.
Zysk ekonomiczny
Trimble generates a trailing return on invested capital of 7.08%, which sits below its computed weighted average cost of capital of 9.43%. This negative economic spread of 2.35 percentage points reflects balance-sheet expansion and goodwill of $5,239.7M, though expanding high-margin software subscriptions support an upward return trajectory toward the cost of capital over the explicit projection period.1,4
7/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Switching Costs — Deep integration of Trimble software platforms, including Tekla, SketchUp, and Viewpoint, directly into architectural, engineering, construction, and owner workflows creates substantial procedural switching barriers for enterprise contractors. In FY2025, the AECO segment generated $1,498.6M in revenue, representing 41.8% of consolidated top-line sales.Wide
02Intangible Assets — Proprietary GNSS positioning algorithms, optical measurement intellectual property, and established field hardware brands sustain differentiation against general instrument providers, generating $1,539.5M in Field Systems revenue in FY2025.
Znane zagrożenia dla przewagi
Zagrożenie
Powaga
Oś czasu
Złagodzenie
Aggressive instrument pricing and digital workflow bundling by specialized measurement peers
medium
12-24 months
Accelerating cloud integration across AECO software applications to expand recurring subscription annual recurring revenue and strengthen field-to-office connectivity.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($28.25). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $595.1M after modeled reinvestment of $0, with terminal value at 46.1% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Cost of capital remains aligned with long-term capital structure and moderate equity risk premiums.
The Base scenario carries 50.0% probability, establishing an intrinsic target of $28.25, which corresponds to -50.9% return from $57.56 (as of 2026-09-18). Under this path, recurring cloud subscriptions in AECO expand at a steady pace, while Field Systems hardware shipments track modest construction growth, allowing consolidated operating margins to normalize toward target levels over the forecast horizon.
Rapid migration of contractors to cloud-based BIM software drives double-digit annual subscription ARR growth.
Consolidated operating margin expands beyond historical highs due to high gross-margin software leverage.
§7 Drzewo decyzyjne wynikówEN
Powyżej
Upgrade to Reduce; Re-evaluate position size and review AECO annual recurring revenue conversion alongside Field Systems order intake before considering any reallocation.
Wyzwalacz: Revenue and diluted earnings per share exceeding consensus expectations alongside accelerated subscription growth in AECO
An operational beat powered by accelerated subscription annual recurring revenue in AECO would improve margin durability and narrow the valuation gap toward $39.08.
Zgodnie
Maintain Sell; Maintain defensive posture with no new capital commitment, monitoring the gap between share price and $28.25.
Execution in line with consensus projections confirms that the modeled turnaround is tracking expectations, leaving shares overvalued relative to $28.25.
Poniżej
Maintain Sell; Accelerate reduction of any remaining holdings, re-assessing balance sheet liquidity and Field Systems customer demand.
An operational shortfall driven by hardware margin degradation or civil project deferrals would reinforce bear casekill scenarios and pressure the shares downward.
Jakość wyników
Cash conversion reflects how effectively operating income translates into real cash flow. When calculating operating cash flow, non-cash stock-based compensation is added back to operating income, which lifts reported cash flow above operating earnings but creates ongoing shareholder dilution. While asset-light operations and modest physical capital expenditures support reported cash generation, true economic cash conversion is tempered by this equity compensation. Nevertheless, cash flow from core operations remains positive, and working capital requirements have remained manageable across recent reporting periods.
Metryki do obserwacji przed publikacją
01
Wskaźnik:
AECO Subscription ARR Expansion
BieżącyDemonstrating steady expansion as architectural and engineering customers migrate to cloud modeling platforms.
Dlaczego to ważne
Continued expansion of recurring software subscriptions demonstrates customer retention and expands consolidated gross margin.
Capital allocation has focused on debt paydown and share repurchases following portfolio divestitures. Management reduced total debt by more than half from its FY2023 peak of $3,188.5M to $1,459.3M. In FY2025, the company deployed $863.4M into share repurchases, reflecting capital return in the absence of a common dividend, while maintaining disciplined ($25.3M).
Return on invested capital currently measures 7.08%, depressed by $5,239.7M of goodwill accumulated during prior acquisitions. As software mix expands in AECO and operational restructuring takes effect, capital efficiency and operating margins are modeled to lift returns toward and eventually above the cost of capital.
Trailing ROIC of 7.08% generates a negative economic spread against the computed WACC of 9.43%, reflecting ongoing turnaround execution requirements before economic profit generation turns positive.
Najnowsze wolne przepływy pieniężne360,9 mln USDFY2026
Dług netto1,1 mld USDFY2026
Struktura rachunku zysków i stratJak skala działalności przekłada się na raportowany zysk.30 cze 2026
Przychody972 mln USDKoszt sprzedaży−297,1 mln USDZysk brutto674,9 mln USDKoszty operacyjne−542,9 mln USDZysk operacyjny132 mln USDPozycje pozaoperacyjne i podatki−603,7 mln USDZysk netto-471,7 mln USD
Dane historii finansowej
Przychody
972 000 000 USD
Koszt sprzedaży
297 100 000 USD
Zysk brutto
674 900 000 USD
Koszty operacyjne
542 900 000 USD
Zysk operacyjny
132 000 000 USD
Pozycje pozaoperacyjne i podatki
-603 700 000 USD
Zysk netto
-471 700 000 USD
Podsumowanie bilansuJak wykazane aktywa są utrzymywane i finansowane w wybranym okresie.
Most przepływów pieniężnychJak przepływy operacyjne przełożyły się na wolne przepływy pieniężne w FY2026.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Uzgodnienie przepływów operacyjnych
Zysk netto424 mln USDAmortyzacja+199,9 mln USDWynagrodzenie w akcjach+146,5 mln USDPozostałe korekty operacyjne−384,2 mln USDOperacyjne przepływy pieniężne386,2 mln USD
Uzgodnienie środków na początek i koniec
Środki pieniężne na początek747,8 mln USDOperacyjne przepływy pieniężne+386,2 mln USDPrzepływy inwestycyjne−37 mln USDPrzepływy finansowe−868,4 mln USDWpływ kursów walutowych+24,8 mln USDŚrodki pieniężne na koniec253,4 mln USD
386,2 mln USD − 25,3 mln USDWolne przepływy pieniężne 360,9 mln USD
Dane mostu przepływów pieniężnych
Zysk netto
424 000 000 USD
Wpływy operacyjne
770 400 000 USD
Amortyzacja
199 900 000 USD
Wynagrodzenie w akcjach
146 500 000 USD
Operacyjne przepływy pieniężne
386 200 000 USD
Wydatki operacyjne
384 200 000 USD
Dostępne środki pieniężne
1 158 800 000 USD
Środki pieniężne na początek
747 800 000 USD
Wpływ kursów walutowych
24 800 000 USD
Wydatki inwestycyjne
37 000 000 USD
Capex
25 300 000 USD
Pozostała działalność inwestycyjna
11 700 000 USD
Wydatki finansowe
868 400 000 USD
Skup akcji
863 400 000 USD
Pozostała działalność finansowa
5 000 000 USD
Środki pieniężne na koniec
253 400 000 USD
Przepływy inwestycyjne
-37 000 000 USD
Przepływy finansowe
-868 400 000 USD
Przychody według segmentu operacyjnegoUdział w łącznych przychodach za 2026-01-02.
3,6 mld USDŁączne przychody
Przychody według segmentu operacyjnegoUdział
Field Systems1,5 mld USD42,9%+0,2% r/r
Architects Engineers Construction And Owners1,5 mld USD41,8%+10,3% r/r
Transportation And Logistics549,2 mln USD15,3%−30,4% r/r
Źródło: SEC EDGAR · Złożono 2026-02-25 · SEC EDGAR
Dane o strukturze przychodów: Przychody według segmentu operacyjnego
Przychody według segmentu operacyjnego
Przychody
Udział
r/r
Field Systems
1,5 mld USD
42,9%
0,2%
Architects Engineers Construction And Owners
1,5 mld USD
41,8%
10,3%
Transportation And Logistics
549,2 mln USD
15,3%
-30,4%
Przychody według regionuUdział w łącznych przychodach za 2026-01-02.
3,6 mld USDŁączne przychody
Przychody według regionuUdział
North America2,1 mld USD57,9%−0,1% r/r
Europe1 mld USD28,5%−2,7% r/r
Asia Pacific349,7 mln USD9,7%−4,2% r/r
Restof World140,1 mln USD3,9%−25,9% r/r
Źródło: SEC EDGAR · Złożono 2026-02-25 · SEC EDGAR
Dane o strukturze przychodów: Przychody według regionu
Przychody według regionu
Przychody
Udział
r/r
North America
2,1 mld USD
57,9%
-0,1%
Europe
1 mld USD
28,5%
-2,7%
Asia Pacific
349,7 mln USD
9,7%
-4,2%
Restof World
140,1 mln USD
3,9%
-25,9%
Przychody i wynikiJak skala działalności przekłada się na raportowany zysk.
Gotówka i zadłużenieDostępna płynność wobec całkowitego zadłużenia.
Generowanie gotówkiPrzepływy operacyjne w porównaniu z wolnymi przepływami pieniężnymi.
RentownośćZmiany marży brutto, operacyjnej i netto.
Dane finansowe na określony moment użyte w analizie z 2026-09-20.
Dane historii finansowej
Okres
Przychody
EBITDA
Zysk netto
Operacyjne przepływy pieniężne
Wolne przepływy pieniężne
Capex
Amortyzacja
Wynagrodzenie w akcjach
Skup akcji
Wypłacone dywidendy
Emisja długu netto
Przepływy inwestycyjne
Przepływy finansowe
Środki pieniężne na początek
Środki pieniężne na koniec
Gotówka i inwestycje
Zadłużenie ogółem
Marża operacyjna
ROIC
WACC
Spread ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31
—
—
—
407,1 mln USD
381,1 mln USD
26 mln USD
187,8 mln USD
52,6 mln USD
119,5 mln USD
355 mln USD
—
-144,4 mln USD
-155,8 mln USD
—
216,1 mln USD
—
—
—
—
—
—
2017-12-29
2,6 mld USD
478,1 mln USD
118,4 mln USD
429,7 mln USD
386 mln USD
43,7 mln USD
183,4 mln USD
64,8 mln USD
285,3 mln USD
18 mln USD
—
-371,2 mln USD
66,5 mln USD
216,1 mln USD
358,5 mln USD
537,4 mln USD
913,9 mln USD
8,9%
—
—
—
2018-12-28
3,1 mld USD
590 mln USD
282,8 mln USD
486,7 mln USD
419,1 mln USD
67,6 mln USD
215,2 mln USD
76,9 mln USD
93 mln USD
3 mld USD
—
-1,6 mld USD
989,4 mln USD
358,5 mln USD
172,5 mln USD
172,5 mln USD
2 mld USD
10,3%
—
—
—
2020-01-03
3,3 mld USD
634,4 mln USD
514,3 mln USD
585 mln USD
516 mln USD
69 mln USD
207,2 mln USD
75 mln USD
179,8 mln USD
1,2 mld USD
—
-275,3 mln USD
-292,6 mln USD
172,5 mln USD
189,2 mln USD
189,2 mln USD
1,6 mld USD
11,5%
—
—
—
2021-01-01
3,1 mld USD
692,9 mln USD
389,9 mln USD
672 mln USD
615,2 mln USD
56,8 mln USD
197,5 mln USD
83 mln USD
81,6 mln USD
1,2 mld USD
—
-231,8 mln USD
-400,3 mln USD
189,2 mln USD
237,7 mln USD
237,7 mln USD
1,3 mld USD
13,3%
—
—
—
2021-12-31
3,7 mld USD
819,9 mln USD
492,7 mln USD
750,5 mln USD
704,4 mln USD
46,1 mln USD
179,9 mln USD
122,6 mln USD
180 mln USD
—
—
-203,5 mln USD
-447,7 mln USD
237,7 mln USD
325,7 mln USD
325,7 mln USD
1,3 mld USD
15,3%
—
6,3%
—
2022-12-30
3,7 mld USD
747,4 mln USD
449,7 mln USD
391,2 mln USD
348 mln USD
43,2 mln USD
171,8 mln USD
120,4 mln USD
394,7 mln USD
—
224,6 mln USD
-226,3 mln USD
-199 mln USD
325,7 mln USD
271 mln USD
271 mln USD
1,2 mld USD
13,9%
—
8,4%
—
2023-12-29
3,8 mld USD
768,6 mln USD
311,3 mln USD
597,1 mln USD
555,1 mln USD
42 mln USD
250,6 mln USD
145,4 mln USD
100 mln USD
3,1 mld USD
1,6 mld USD
-2,1 mld USD
1,4 mld USD
271 mln USD
238,9 mln USD
229,8 mln USD
3,2 mld USD
11,8%
—
9,2%
—
2025-01-03
3,7 mld USD
2,3 mld USD
1,5 mld USD
531,4 mln USD
497,8 mln USD
33,6 mln USD
232 mln USD
158,6 mln USD
175 mln USD
—
-1,7 mld USD
1,9 mld USD
-1,9 mld USD
238,9 mln USD
747,8 mln USD
738,8 mln USD
1,4 mld USD
12,5%
—
10,5%
—
2026-01-02
3,6 mld USD
763,7 mln USD
424 mln USD
386,2 mln USD
360,9 mln USD
25,3 mln USD
199,9 mln USD
146,5 mln USD
863,4 mln USD
—
0 USD
-37 mln USD
-868,4 mln USD
747,8 mln USD
253,4 mln USD
253,4 mln USD
1,4 mld USD
16,5%
—
9,8%
—
§9 Porównanie wyceny z konkurentami
Wartość godziwaReport-date price
Trimble Inc.TRMB
Cena / wartość godziwa
Wartość godziwa28,25 USDReport-date price57,56 USD
Data oceny
Przewaga konkurencyjnaNarrow
Karta wyników inwestycyjnych51 / 100
Fortive CorporationFTV
Cena / wartość godziwa
Wartość godziwa52,99 USDReport-date price57,26 USD
Data oceny
Przewaga konkurencyjnaNarrow
Karta wyników inwestycyjnych62 / 100
Teledyne Technologies IncorporatedTDY
Cena / wartość godziwa
Wartość godziwa460,57 USDReport-date price621,02 USD
Data oceny
Przewaga konkurencyjnaNarrow
Karta wyników inwestycyjnych64 / 100
Trimble Inc.TRMB
Cena / wartość godziwa
Wartość godziwa28,25 USDReport-date price57,56 USD
Trimble Inc. (TRMB) trades at 13.6x forward earnings against a peer median of 23.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 16.7x compares with a peer median of 18.6x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Fortive Corporation, Teledyne Technologies Incorporated, Keysight Technologies Inc. and GitLab Inc., as of 2026-09-20.
§10 Branża i cyklEN
Faza cyklu
Contraction
The specialized instrument and measurement industry exhibits an average capital expenditure to revenue ratio of 5.70% and a capital expenditure to depreciation ratio of 1.41x. By contrast, Trimble's cash capital expenditures in FY2025 stood at $25.3M against depreciation of $199.9M, representing a capital expenditure to revenue ratio of 0.71% and reflecting restrained capital deployment following multi-year portfolio restructuring.4
Cykl byczy
A cyclical expansion in commercial infrastructure, transportation modernization, and building information modeling adoption accelerates demand for surveying robotics, optical systems, and cloud-native project management software. Strong contractor balance sheets encourage capital expenditure upgrades, driving high-margin field instrument deliveries and expanding recurring software seats.
Cykl niedźwiedzi
Elevated interest rates, delayed commercial construction financing, and European manufacturing contraction lead project owners to postpone capital commitments. Contractors curtail discretionary fleet modernization, suppress equipment orders in Field Systems, and defer software seat expansions.
Trendy długoterminowe
Trend
Wpływ
Uwaga
Building Information Modeling and Connected Construction
positive
Global architectural and engineering firms are accelerating the transition from legacy 2D drawings to cloud-connected 3D modeling workflows, boosting demand for AECO subscription platforms such as Tekla and SketchUp.
Civil Infrastructure Automation and Machine Guidance
positive
Pozycjonowanie
Trimble occupies a dual position as an established market provider of precision positioning hardware and an expanding enterprise software provider. While software annual recurring revenue in AECO provides margin stability, the business remains tethered to cyclical construction spending, with Field Systems ($1,539.5M) and Transportation ($549.2M) accounting for 58.2% of consolidated sales.5
§11 Zarządzanie pozycjąEN
Wielkość pozycji
0%
Trimble is assigned a Sell rating with 0% recommended position weighting because shares trade at $57.56, representing a 103.8% premium to our fundamental Fair value midpoint of $28.25. Capital preservation principles require complete avoidance or liquidation of long positions until valuation reconciles with fundamental cash flows.3
Ryzyko
Portfolio risk controls require strict position limits and capital preservation discipline. Given Trimble's debt load of $1,459.3M and exposure to civil construction cycles, investors should monitor quarterly operating margin trends and credit ratios closely.
Transze wejścia
Poziom
Działanie
Dlaczego
Below $28.25
Re-underwrite fundamental valuation before considering new entry
Shares must decline below the house Fair value of $28.25 to provide an adequate margin of safety before capital deployment can be evaluated.
Consider initial accumulation if operational turnaround metrics are verified
Trimble trades at 13.57x forward earnings and a 103.8% premium to fundamental Fair value of $28.25, offering no margin of safety and significant downside risk.3
Growth Investor
Avoid
Although AECO generates recurring software revenue, 5-year consolidated revenue CAGR is -0.81% and cyclical hardware exposure limits overall top-line expansion relative to peer benchmarks.5
Income Investor
Avoid
Trimble pays no regular common dividend and prioritizes share buybacks and debt retirement, providing zero direct income yield.3,4
§14 Końcowa rekomendacjaEN
Działanie
Sprzedaj
Liquidate existing equity holdings and avoid new capital allocation to Trimble. At $57.56 on September 18, 2026, shares trade at a 103.8% premium to our fundamental Fair value of $28.25 and 47.3% above our Potential value of $39.08.3
While software expansion in AECO improves business quality, cyclical exposure across Field Systems and Transportation leaves 58.2% of revenue vulnerable to construction downturns, rendering the current valuation unsustainable.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Private notes
Visible only to you. Synced to this device.
0 chars
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Operating margin 6 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Global Construction Contraction and Field Systems Sales Decline
Trimble's 5-year historical revenue CAGR was -0.81%. Field Systems represents $1,539.5M in revenue and European revenue is $1,021.6M. A cyclical downturn reducing growth by 10 percentage points from the FY2027 base forecast of 8.16% results in negative revenue growth below -1.84%.5
FV impact
-26.4%
Revenue and EPS growth 10 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Cost of Capital Expansion from Debt Refinancing and Market Volatility
Trimble carries total debt of $1,459.3M, having reached $3,188.5M in FY2023, with cash of $253.4M. Its raw beta is 1.4088. A 200 bps increase in cost of capital from base WACC of 9.43% pushes discount rates above 11.43%.1,3,4
Top-line contraction exceeding -1.84% indicates that civil and infrastructure project deferrals are overwhelming recurring software gains across North America and Europe.
Cyclical downturn in non-residential construction and civil engineering spending across North America and Europe
medium
12-18 months
Leveraging expanding recurring annual contract value and international geographic diversification to cushion periodic declines in physical equipment deliveries.
Field Systems maintains stable pricing and unit volumes without discounting against specialized instrument peers.
The Bull scenario carries 15.0% probability, projecting Potential value of $39.08, which corresponds to -32.1% return from $57.56 (as of 2026-09-18). This path assumes accelerated contractor adoption of connected construction ecosystems, driving subscription ARR expansion across AECO and enabling operating leverage to exceed prior peaks without competitive hardware discounting.
Dlaczego to ważne
Hardware pricing stability directly impacts consolidated profitability and supplies operating cash flow for digital transformation.
03
Wskaźnik:
European Regional Top-Line Stability
BieżącyReflecting subdued regional industrial activity and cautious capital spending across civil contractors.
Dlaczego to ważne
European revenue provides geographic breadth, but regional demand weakness creates top-line headwind and currency drag.
Balance-Sheet Deleveraging Restores Capital Flexibility
Total debt was reduced from $3,188.5M at fiscal year-end 2023 to $1,459.3M as of September 2026, supported by $253.4M in cash.
Substantial debt reduction lowers ongoing interest obligations and financial leverage, leaving debt at 9.81% of capital structure.
Keysight Technologies Inc.KEYS
Cena / wartość godziwa
Wartość godziwa215,39 USDReport-date price386,43 USD
Data oceny
Przewaga konkurencyjnaWide
Karta wyników inwestycyjnych68 / 100
GitLab Inc.GTLB
Cena / wartość godziwa
Wartość godziwa35,64 USDReport-date price55,45 USD
Data oceny
Przewaga konkurencyjnaNarrow
Karta wyników inwestycyjnych47 / 100
Marża
TRMB
Trimble Inc.
$13.4B
13.6x
3.5x
16.7x
-1.9%
—
FTV
Fortive Corporation
$16.8B
16.9x
3.9x
16.1x
7.3%
19.1%
TDY
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated
$28.0B
22.5x
4.4x
18.6x
9.2%
20.2%
KEYS
Keysight Technologies Inc.
$57.0B
24.2x
8.7x
33.7x
20.9%
25.7%
GTLB
GitLab Inc.
$8.2B
47.4x
7.8x
-5.7%
-11.5%
Skilled labor shortages and project execution tolerances are driving civil contractors to equip earthmoving equipment with automated GNSS positioning and guidance systems.
Commercial Real Estate and European Construction Softness
negative
Sluggish non-residential construction activity in Europe and North American commercial real estate headwinds create cyclical friction for hardware instrument replacements.
<-5.0% YoY
Re-underwrite hardware durability and reduce segment valuation multiple to 2.5x.