Is Tractor Supply Company overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-21, TSCO trades close to fair value. The price recorded at analysis is 32,9 USD versus our fair value of 34,6 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 44,5 USD. That implies roughly 5.0% upside to fair value at that date.

What is TSCO's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-21, gives TSCO a fair value of 34,6 USD and a potential value of 44,5 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Tractor Supply Company's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy TSCO now?

Our latest published rating for TSCO, analyzed 2026-10-21, is Hold. Tractor Supply Company trades close to fair value at the analysis-date price of 32,9 USD versus fair value of 34,6 USD; potential value is 44,5 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for TSCO?

The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-21 documents Tractor Supply Company's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.

What is TSCO's rating?

Our latest published rating for TSCO, analyzed 2026-10-21, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 34,6 USD, the potential value of 44,5 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (32,9 USD).

What archetype is TSCO?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-10-21, Tractor Supply Company is classified as a mature-dividend stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for TSCO.

TSCO stock analysis | StockMarketAgent.AI

StockMarketAgent researchPrzeanalizowano 2026-10-21

Tractor Supply Company

TSCO

Trzymaj

Wycena godziwa · 5,0% od wartości godziwej

Report-date price

32,91 USD

Recorded 2026-10-20

Wartość godziwa

34,55 USD

Wartość potencjalna

44,45 USD

Górna granica wyceny

Przewaga konkurencyjna

Narrow7.5 / 10

Awaryjny angielskiPL

Pokazujemy źródło angielskie podczas tłumaczenia

Ten raport nie został jeszcze przetłumaczony. Odśwież za kilka minut, gdy kolejka tłumaczeń go przetworzy.

§1 Podsumowanie wykonawczeEN

Odpowiedź w 30 sekundHold

Cena a wartość

Cena: $32.91
Wartość godziwa: $34.55
Wartość potencjalna: $44.45
Stan na: 2026-10-20

Dlaczego to może zadziałać

The primary opportunity is the normalization of the capital cycle and the operational leverage unlocked as distribution center construction completes.

Co zmieniłoby naszą ocenę

Persistent line-haul freight inflation and diesel fuel price spikes exceeding retail budget expectations, combined with farm-and-ranch price matching.

Tractor Supply Company remains the preeminent rural lifestyle retailer in North America, but near-term margin compression from elevated freight rates, negative comparable store sales, and peak distribution center investments warrant a patient Hold rating at current market levels.

Tractor Supply operates an advantaged rural retail footprint that insulates it from conventional e-commerce disruption. Its extensive network of 2,463 stores provides crucial convenience for time-starved rural hobbyists and ranchers who depend on immediate availability of animal feed, livestock equipment, and farm hardware. Consumable, usable, and edible categories, alongside private label brands that reached 30.2% of sales in the first half of 2026, generate dependable recurring foot traffic. Additionally, the deliberate integration of pet health assets—comprising Petsense retail, Allivet online pharmacy, and VIP Petcare mobile veterinary clinics—creates a differentiated ecosystem with proven customer stickiness.

Despite these structural advantages, the company is navigating a cyclical earnings trough in FY2026. Comparable store sales fell 1.5% in Q2 2026, pressured by discretionary spending fatigue and seasonal volatility, prompting management to lower full-year comp guidance to -1% to flat and withdraw its long-term framework. At the same time, unexpected spikes in line-haul freight and diesel fuel expenses are weighing on , resulting in adjusted guidance of 8.5% to 8.8%. also remain elevated due to distribution center construction ($435.71M in H1 2026), keeping the FY2026 at 45.0%. We view the risk-reward profile as balanced and recommend holding existing positions while awaiting comp sales inflection and normalization.

§2 Scenariusz negatywnyEN

In an acute downside scenario where rural consumer demand deteriorates alongside entrenched supply chain cost inflation, Tractor Supply would experience compounding headwinds. If comparable store sales contract by 2.0% to 3.0% across FY2026 and FY2027 while freight expenses and fuel prices stay at peak levels, fixed store occupancy and distribution overhead would deleverage sharply. Under this severe stress, operating margin would breach the 7.0% barrier. With committed capital expenditures for new distribution centers already underway ($435.71M invested in H1 2026), free cash flow generation would compress toward $250M-$300M, testing dividend coverage and necessitating the total cessation of share repurchases ($255.64M deployed in H1 2026). Additionally, terminal valuation multiples would contract toward mature retail peer levels of 12.0x-13.0x, causing multi-year price stagnation.

Bear scenario

Bear

Probability

25%

Return

-23.1%

Path target

$25.31

Revenue growth decelerates to 1.5%-2.5% annually due to persistent comp store sales declines
Operating margins remain depressed in the 7.5%-8.0% range due to ongoing line-haul freight inflation and promotional pricing⁴
Distribution center investments face extended payback periods and elevated construction carrying costs⁶
EPS growth is constrained to 2.5%-3.5% annually across the forecast period

Under the Bear scenario, persistent weakness among lower-income rural households and discretionary spending fatigue continue to suppress comparable transaction counts into FY2027. Elevated diesel fuel and freight expenses fail to subside, while competitive pressure from farm-and-ranch discounters forces Tractor Supply to maintain margin-dilutive price investments. Capital expenditures remain elevated for longer to complete delayed distribution facilities, curtailing free cash flow growth and muting shareholder capital returns.

Jak ta teza może się załamać

Severe rural recession and price war driving operating margins below 7%

In Q2 2026, GAAP operating income contracted 19.2% YoY to $467.12M with GAAP operating margin falling 272 bps YoY to 10.29%, while full-year FY2026 operating margin was guided down to 8.0%-8.3%. If persistent line-haul freight inflation coincides with aggressive price cuts to match farm-and-ranch discounters, operating margins could break below the 7.0% threshold, generating a modeled -32.5% fair value impairment.⁴

Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania

Pięć zdarzeń, które osłabiłyby naszą tezę inwestycyjną.

Comparable Store Sales Growth

Indicates fundamental demand contraction among rural consumers and core foot-traffic deterioration beyond weather variations.

Obecnie:-1.5% in Q2 2026

Alarm, jeśliSustained comp sales contraction below -2.0% for two consecutive quarters

Operating Margin Rate

Reveals inability to offset line-haul freight inflation through distribution automation or vendor terms, sparking severe earnings impairment.

§3 Przewaga konkurencyjnaEN

Narrow

Tractor Supply possesses a wide economic moat rooted in its dominant physical presence across rural America and an optimized supply chain built specifically for heavy, bulky lifestyle goods. With 2,463 Tractor Supply locations in 49 states as of June 27, 2026, the company's real estate footprint is situated predominantly in outlying rural and exurban markets where mass merchants and digital retailers cannot justify large-scale capital deployment. This geographic insulation provides substantial pricing defensibility and creates an indispensable community hub for hobby farmers, ranchers, and rural homeowners.

The defensibility of the retail model is reinforced by Tractor Supply's proprietary merchandise mix and private brand penetration. In Q2 2026, owned brands and exclusive product categories generated 29.0% of net sales, rising to 30.2% across the first half of the year. These categories, paired with needs-based consumable, usable, and edible (C.U.E.) products, foster recurring transaction demand. Furthermore, the company's expansion into pet health through Allivet and VIP Petcare mobile clinics establishes an ecosystem of veterinary wellness that deepens customer lifetime loyalty and drives predictable shopping frequency.

Zysk ekonomiczny

In FY2025, Tractor Supply produced $1,467.39M in operating income on invested capital of $4,346.29M. Assuming an effective tax rate of 22.13%, after-tax return on invested capital was approximately 26.3%, substantially outperforming the company's weighted average cost of capital of 7.24% and cost of equity of 8.31%. Even during the FY2026 operational trough with operating margins projected at 8.65%, ROIC is modeled to exceed 20%, demonstrating substantial economic profit generation above the cost of capital.^1,5,6

7.5/ 10

Narrow

Sources of advantage

Distribution and Store Density Scale AdvantageOperating 2,463 Tractor Supply stores across 49 states supported by a dedicated regional distribution center infrastructure enables local fulfillment of heavy, low-margin products that competitors cannot match efficiently.Wide
Defensible Rural Lifestyle Assortment and Real Estate FootprintSpecialized rural retail assortment focused on consumable, usable, and edible (C.U.E.) merchandise and owned brands, which accounted for 29.0% of total net sales in Q2 2026, insulating the company from broadline e-commerce platforms.Wide
Integrated Companion Animal and Veterinary EcosystemThe integrated pet platform—encompassing 209 Petsense stores, online pharmacy Allivet, and VIP Petcare mobile veterinary clinics—creates high recurring visit frequency and cross-shopping loyalty, with over 40% of fresh pet buyers representing new or reactivated accounts.

Znane zagrożenia dla przewagi
Zagrożenie	Powaga	Oś czasu	Złagodzenie
Pricing pressure and promotional encroachment from regional farm-and-ranch discounters and mass-market dollar chains.	medium	12-24 months	Leveraging proprietary owned brands (30.2% of H1 2026 sales) and scale vendor allowances to preserve everyday low pricing without sacrificing long-term margin discipline.⁴

§5 Wrażliwość

Stopa dyskontowa

Wzrost terminalny

	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
7.3%	$37.97	$39.33	$40.88	$42.65	$44.70
7.8%	$35.10	$36.17	$37.36	$38.70	$40.22
8.3%	$32.76	$33.61	$34.55	$35.60	$36.77
8.8%	$30.79	$31.48	$32.24	$33.08	$34.01
9.3%	$29.10	$29.68	$30.31	$30.99	$31.74

Wiersze: stopa dyskontowa (Ke dla zysków; WACC dla przepływów pieniężnych). Kolumny: wzrost terminalny.

Wartość godziwa

Zmiana czasu trwania (lata)

	-5	-2	0	+2	+5
Wartość godziwa	34,38 USD	34,46 USD	34,55 USD	34,63 USD	34,75 USD

Czas trwania przewagi konkurencyjnej: 5 lat w wyróżnionym wariancie bazowym. Pozostałe założenia są stałe.

Sensitivity reference

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($34.55). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Klif FCF

Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $588.1M after modeled reinvestment of $481.2M, with terminal value at 84.3% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.

§7 Drzewo decyzyjne wynikówEN

Powyżej

Upgrade the rating; Consider incrementally increasing allocation toward the upper portfolio risk budget upon observing two consecutive quarters of expanding customer transaction counts.

Wyzwalacz: Comparable store sales expanding positively, operating margin exceeding the upper end of guidance, and adjusted diluted EPS beating full-year expectations.

A decisive beat driven by comparable transaction count inflection and freight stabilization would validate that the FY2026 earnings trough has completed ahead of schedule, confirming multi-year earnings re-acceleration.

Zgodnie

Maintain Hold; Maintain existing portfolio allocation, reinvest recurring dividend cash flows, and monitor distribution center milestone progress.

Wyzwalacz: Comparable store sales between -1.0% and flat, adjusted operating margin of 8.5%-8.8%, and FY2026 adjusted EPS between $1.90 and $2.00.

Performance tracking within updated management guidance confirms that FY2026 represents a transient cyclical trough rather than structural impairment, supporting the central intrinsic valuation.

Poniżej

Downgrade the rating; Trim exposure by twenty-five to fifty percent and place the position on probation pending stabilization in customer traffic and inventory turnover.

Wyzwalacz: Comparable store sales below -2.0%, adjusted operating margin failing to hold 8.0%, or FY2026 adjusted EPS below $1.78.

A miss below updated guidance would signify that rural consumer distress and freight cost headwinds are worsening, eroding the margin trajectory and delaying capital cycle normalization.

Jakość wyników

Tractor Supply's reported earnings quality reflects significant non-GAAP adjustments in recent periods. In Q2 2026, GAAP diluted EPS of $0.69 differed from adjusted diluted EPS of $0.81 due to $75.3M in pre-tax impairment and acquisition charges, which included $62.75M in goodwill, intangible, and long-lived asset impairment for Petsense, $5.93M in inventory write-downs for 75 planned store closures, and $9.5M in VIP Petcare acquisition costs. Operating cash flows remain robust, generating $653.14M in H1 2026, though lower than $1,002.58M in H1 2025 due to working capital expansion in inventories ($429.66M outflow). Accounting policies remain conservative, with clean inventory valuation and standard depreciation schedules ($257.45M D&A in H1 2026).

Dynamika prognoz

Sell-side consensus estimate revisions have drifted modestly downward following the Q2 2026 financial report and the subsequent withdrawal of the December 2024 Investor Day long-term framework. Full-year FY2026 consensus EPS estimates eased from $1.87 on October 7 to $1.86 on October 21, while FY2027 consensus EPS adjusted downward from $2.04 to $2.04. Similarly, FY2026 consensus revenue softened from $15.95B to $15.95B. This downward momentum reflects analyst modeling of persistent freight inflation and muted comp store sales through the remainder of FY2026.

Metryki do obserwacji przed publikacją

Wskaźnik:
Comparable Store Sales and Transaction Counts
BieżącyQ2 2026 comps fell 1.5% with transaction count down 1.7%; FY2026 comp guidance updated to -1% to flat.
Dlaczego to ważne
Primary gauge of rural consumer health, foot traffic stability, and market share retention against discounters.
Wskaźnik:
Adjusted Operating Margin and Freight Costs
BieżącyQ2 2026 GAAP operating margin contracted to 10.29%; FY2026 adjusted operating margin guided to 8.5%-8.8%.

§8 Historia finansowa

Rachunek zysków i strat — ostatnich sześć okresów
Period	2021-12-25	2022-12-31	2023-12-30	2024-12-28	2025-12-27	Trend
Revenue	$12.73B	$14.20B	$14.56B	$14.88B	$15.52B	+5.1%
Gross profit	$4.48B	$4.97B	$5.23B	$5.40B	$5.65B	+6.0%
Operating income	$1.31B	$1.43B	$1.48B	$1.47B	$1.47B	+2.9%
Net income	$997.1M	$1.09B	$1.11B	$1.10B	$1.10B	+2.4%
EPS (diluted)	$1.72	$1.94	$2.02	$2.04	$2.06	+4.6%
EBITDA	$1.58B	$1.78B	$1.87B	$1.91B	$1.96B	+5.6%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$2.90B	$3.19B	$3.36B	$3.48B	$3.69B	+6.2%

Przyjęta prognoza roczna
Wskaźnik	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Revenue	$15.95B	$16.61B

Przepływy pieniężne

Operating cash flow generation generated $1,635.26M in FY2025 and $653.14M in H1 2026. Free cash flow reached $740.49M in FY2025 after accounting for $894.77M in capital expenditures. In FY2026, free cash flow to firm is modeled at $588.12M, constrained by an elevated 45.0% net reinvestment rate ($481.19M reinvestment). However, as distribution center construction tapers and working capital stabilizes, FCFF is projected to expand steadily: $683.40M in FY2027, $786.78M in FY2028, $895.88M in FY2029, and $958.94M in FY2030.⁶

Alokacja kapitału

Tractor Supply executes a balanced capital allocation strategy prioritizing internal growth, regular dividend increases, and programmatic share repurchases. In H1 2026, reached $435.71M, directed primarily toward new store openings (68 new TSCO stores opened in H1 2026) and regional distribution center infrastructure. The company returned $507.67M to shareholders in H1 2026, consisting of $252.02M in cash dividends ($0.24 declared per share quarterly) and $255.64M in share buybacks at an average price of $40.86 per share. In August 2026, TSCO strengthened its balance sheet by issuing $500M in 5.200% Senior Notes due 2032 to refinance existing credit facility borrowings. remains manageable, supported by $653.14M in H1 2026 .

ROIC

Tractor Supply's return on invested capital has moderated from peak pandemic highs (operating margins of 10.26% in FY2021 and 10.16% in FY2023 down to 9.45% in FY2025 and 8.65% modeled in FY2026). This softening reflects cyclical line-haul freight inflation, tariff absorption, and substantial capital deployment into new distribution center facilities ($894.77M capex in FY2025). As these investments mature and the reinvestment rate steps down from 45% to 28%, ROIC is projected to stabilize and rebound toward steady-state levels.

Despite the near-term margin trough, after-tax ROIC remains exceptionally strong at over 20%, maintaining a wide economic profit spread of more than 13 percentage points above the company's weighted average cost of capital of 7.24% and cost of equity of 8.31%. This spread underscores the durability of the company's underlying .

Najnowsze przychody15,5 mld USDCAGR przychodów +9,6%

Marża operacyjna9,5%10 okresów fiskalnych

Najnowsze wolne przepływy pieniężne740,5 mln USDFY2025

Gotówka netto44,1 mln USDFY2025

Struktura rachunku zysków i stratJak skala działalności przekłada się na raportowany zysk.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Dane historii finansowej
Przychody	15 524 046 000 USD
Koszt sprzedaży	9 869 538 000 USD
Zysk brutto	5 654 508 000 USD
Koszty operacyjne	4 187 119 000 USD
Zysk operacyjny	1 467 389 000 USD
Pozycje pozaoperacyjne i podatki	-371 302 000 USD
Zysk netto	1 096 087 000 USD

Podsumowanie bilansuJak wykazane aktywa są utrzymywane i finansowane w wybranym okresie.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Dane podziału bilansu
Aktywa ogółem	10 933 679 000 USD
Środki pieniężne	194 109 000 USD
Aktywa obrotowe	3 507 797 000 USD
Zobowiązania ogółem	8 352 386 000 USD
Zobowiązania krótkoterminowe	2 614 449 000 USD
Kapitał własny	2 581 293 000 USD

Most przepływów pieniężnychJak przepływy operacyjne przełożyły się na wolne przepływy pieniężne w FY2025.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Uzgodnienie przepływów operacyjnych

Zysk netto1,1 mld USDAmortyzacja+494 mln USDWynagrodzenie w akcjach+57,1 mln USDPozostałe korekty operacyjne−11,9 mln USDOperacyjne przepływy pieniężne1,6 mld USD

Uzgodnienie środków na początek i koniec

Środki pieniężne na początek251,5 mln USDOperacyjne przepływy pieniężne+1,6 mld USDPrzepływy inwestycyjne−778,6 mln USDPrzepływy finansowe−914,1 mln USDŚrodki pieniężne na koniec194,1 mln USD

1,6 mld USD − 894,8 mln USDWolne przepływy pieniężne 740,5 mln USD

Dane mostu przepływów pieniężnych
Zysk netto	1 096 087 000 USD
Wpływy operacyjne	1 647 161 000 USD
Amortyzacja	494 011 000 USD
Wynagrodzenie w akcjach	57 063 000 USD
Operacyjne przepływy pieniężne	1 635 259 000 USD
Wydatki operacyjne	11 902 000 USD
Dostępne środki pieniężne	1 886 750 000 USD
Środki pieniężne na początek	251 491 000 USD
Wydatki inwestycyjne	778 578 000 USD
Wydatki finansowe	914 063 000 USD
Skup akcji	361 261 000 USD
Wypłacone dywidendy	487 669 000 USD
Spłata długu netto	72 819 000 USD
Środki pieniężne na koniec	194 109 000 USD
Przepływy inwestycyjne	-778 578 000 USD
Przepływy finansowe	-914 063 000 USD

Przychody i wynikiJak skala działalności przekłada się na raportowany zysk.

Gotówka i zadłużenieDostępna płynność wobec całkowitego zadłużenia.

Generowanie gotówkiPrzepływy operacyjne w porównaniu z wolnymi przepływami pieniężnymi.

RentownośćZmiany marży brutto, operacyjnej i netto.

Dane finansowe na określony moment użyte w analizie z 2026-10-21.

Dane historii finansowej
Okres	Przychody	EBITDA	Zysk netto	Operacyjne przepływy pieniężne	Wolne przepływy pieniężne	Capex	Amortyzacja	Wynagrodzenie w akcjach	Skup akcji	Wypłacone dywidendy	Emisja długu netto	Przepływy inwestycyjne	Przepływy finansowe	Środki pieniężne na początek	Środki pieniężne na koniec	Gotówka i inwestycje	Zadłużenie ogółem	Marża operacyjna	ROIC	WACC	Spread ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31	6,8 mld USD	837 mln USD	437,1 mln USD	650,7 mln USD	424,7 mln USD	226 mln USD	143 mln USD	23,6 mln USD	331,7 mln USD	122,3 mln USD	—	-369,3 mln USD	-291,3 mln USD	—	53,9 mln USD	53,9 mln USD	0 USD	10,2%	—	7,1%	—
2017-12-30	7,3 mld USD	852,2 mln USD	422,6 mln USD	631,5 mln USD	381 mln USD	250,4 mln USD	165,8 mln USD	29,2 mln USD	369,4 mln USD	133,8 mln USD	—	-238 mln USD	-338,3 mln USD	53,9 mln USD	109,1 mln USD	110 mln USD	150 mln USD	9,5%	—	7,0%	—
2018-12-29	7,9 mld USD	879,1 mln USD	532,4 mln USD	694,4 mln USD	415,9 mln USD	278,5 mln USD	177,4 mln USD	28,9 mln USD	349,8 mln USD	147,1 mln USD	—	-276,3 mln USD	-440,9 mln USD	109,1 mln USD	86,3 mln USD	88,9 mln USD	150 mln USD	8,9%	—	7,1%	—
2019-12-28	8,4 mld USD	939,2 mln USD	562,4 mln USD	811,7 mln USD	594,3 mln USD	217,5 mln USD	196 mln USD	31,1 mln USD	533,3 mln USD	162,7 mln USD	—	-215 mln USD	-598,8 mln USD	86,3 mln USD	84,2 mln USD	84,8 mln USD	150 mln USD	8,9%	—	5,9%	—
2020-12-26	10,6 mld USD	1,2 mld USD	749 mln USD	1,4 mld USD	1,1 mld USD	294 mln USD	217,1 mln USD	37,3 mln USD	343 mln USD	174,7 mln USD	—	-292,2 mln USD	155,2 mln USD	84,2 mln USD	1,3 mld USD	1,3 mld USD	150 mln USD	9,4%	—	4,9%	—
2021-12-25	12,7 mld USD	1,6 mld USD	997,1 mln USD	1,1 mld USD	510,3 mln USD	628,4 mln USD	270,2 mln USD	47,6 mln USD	798,9 mln USD	239 mln USD	—	-627,3 mln USD	-975,1 mln USD	1,3 mld USD	878 mln USD	878 mln USD	150 mln USD	10,3%	—	5,4%	—
2022-12-31	14,2 mld USD	1,8 mld USD	1,1 mld USD	1,4 mld USD	583,6 mln USD	773,4 mln USD	343,1 mln USD	53,8 mln USD	700,1 mln USD	409,6 mln USD	173,9 mln USD	-1,1 mld USD	-938,8 mln USD	878 mln USD	202,5 mln USD	202,5 mln USD	150 mln USD	10,1%	—	7,7%	—
2023-12-30	14,6 mld USD	1,9 mld USD	1,1 mld USD	1,3 mld USD	580,2 mln USD	753,9 mln USD	393 mln USD	57 mln USD	594,4 mln USD	449,6 mln USD	567,2 mln USD	-653,1 mln USD	-486,4 mln USD	202,5 mln USD	397,1 mln USD	397,1 mln USD	150 mln USD	10,2%	—	7,6%	—
2024-12-28	14,9 mld USD	1,9 mld USD	1,1 mld USD	1,4 mld USD	636,8 mln USD	784 mln USD	447,2 mln USD	48,4 mln USD	560,6 mln USD	472,5 mln USD	95,2 mln USD	-643,9 mln USD	-922,5 mln USD	397,1 mln USD	251,5 mln USD	251,5 mln USD	150 mln USD	9,9%	—	8,3%	—
2025-12-27	15,5 mld USD	2 mld USD	1,1 mld USD	1,6 mld USD	740,5 mln USD	894,8 mln USD	494 mln USD	57,1 mln USD	361,3 mln USD	487,7 mln USD	-72,8 mln USD	-778,6 mln USD	-914,1 mln USD	251,5 mln USD	194,1 mln USD	194,1 mln USD	150 mln USD	9,5%	—	7,2%	—

§9 Porównanie wyceny z konkurentami

Tractor Supply CompanyTSCO

Cena / wartość godziwa

Wartość godziwa34,55 USDReport-date price32,91 USD

Data oceny21 paź 2026

Przewaga konkurencyjnaNarrow

Karta wyników inwestycyjnych61 / 100

Best Buy Co. Inc.BBY

Cena / wartość godziwa

Wartość godziwa78,18 USDReport-date price87,01 USD

Data oceny11 paź 2026

Przewaga konkurencyjnaNarrow

Karta wyników inwestycyjnych59 / 100

Ulta Beauty Inc.ULTA

Cena / wartość godziwa

Wartość godziwa485,87 USDReport-date price545,48 USD

Data oceny07 paź 2026

Przewaga konkurencyjnaNarrow

Karta wyników inwestycyjnych66 / 100

Mnożniki i rentowność konkurencji
Ticker	Nazwa	Kap. rynkowa	P/E	P/S	EV/EBITDA	ROE

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) trades at 14.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 16.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 12.1x compares with a peer median of 13.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Best Buy Co. Inc., Ulta Beauty Inc., Domino's Pizza Inc. and Packaging Corporation of America, as of 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-21.

§10 Branża i cyklEN

Faza cyklu

Peak

Industry benchmark data indicates a retail capex-to-revenue ratio of 0.016 (1.6%) and an industry capex-to-depreciation ratio of 1.65. In contrast, Tractor Supply deployed $894.77M in FY2025 capex on $15.52B in revenue (5.76% of revenue) and an additional $435.71M in H1 2026, reflecting an aggressive multi-year distribution center expansion program. Because broader industry capacity and supplier lead-time evidence remain unavailable, our sector cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.

Cykl byczy

In an industry upcycle, real rural wage growth, demographic exurban migration, and resilient companion animal spending drive robust comp transaction growth. Distribution automation reduces cost-to-serve, while private label expansion enhances product gross margins above 37.5%, enabling industry operating margins to expand toward 10.0%.

Cykl niedźwiedzi

In an extended industry downturn, persistent inflation in living costs reduces discretionary home, garden, and recreational hardware purchases among rural consumers. Comp sales contract further, forcing promotional discounting against regional farm-and-ranch discounters and compressing industry operating margins below historical mid-cycle averages.

Trendy długoterminowe
Trend	Wpływ	Uwaga
Exurban Migration and Rural Living Adoption	positive	Long-term population shifts toward rural, exurban, and semi-agricultural communities support structural demand for hobby farming, homesteading, and property maintenance supplies.
Companion Animal Humanization and Healthcare Integration	positive	Ongoing humanization of pets and livestock animal wellness drives recurring expenditure on premium nutrition, specialized pharmacy products, and preventative mobile veterinary care.

Pozycjonowanie

Tractor Supply occupies the preeminent leadership position within the niche rural lifestyle retail sector. With 2,463 branded stores in 49 states, its scale dwarfs regional farm-and-ranch competitors. The company maintains an everyday low pricing strategy reinforced by exclusive brands, while its localized inventory mix of livestock feed, farm hardware, and pet nutrition establishes high customer retention across economic cycles.

§11 Zarządzanie pozycjąEN

Wielkość pozycji

2-3%

A moderate conviction stance reflects the tension between Tractor Supply's outstanding long-term moat and its near-term earnings headwinds. The company's durable market leadership, 26% historical ROIC, and growing pet ecosystem justify a core allocation, but recent comp store declines (-1.5% in Q2 2026) and freight headwinds warrant limiting portfolio exposure to 2-3% pending operational turnaround.

Ryzyko

Position risk is managed by maintaining strict weighting limits (2-3% of portfolio equity) and tracking debt covenant compliance. In August 2026, Tractor Supply issued $500M in 5.200% Senior Notes due 2032 to refinance existing short-term credit facility obligations, extending debt maturities and preserving liquidity. With cash and cash equivalents of $231.59M at the end of Q2 2026 and operating cash flow of $653.14M generated in H1 2026, the balance sheet maintains robust flexibility to support ongoing dividend payments ($0.24 quarterly) through the FY2026 capital cycle peak.

Transze wejścia
Poziom	Działanie	Dlaczego
Conservative accumulation tier offering an expanded margin of safety	Initiate starter accumulation tranche (one-third position).	Approaches the conservative valuation band and prices in full FY2026 margin degradation, offering an expanded margin of safety.
	Execute full target accumulation tranche.

Transze wyjścia
Poziom	Działanie
$35.00 - $36.00 (reaching central fair value of $34.55)	Harvest an initial portion of the trading tranche to lock in gains if comp sales remain flat.
$42.00 - $44.00 (approaching high fair value band of $44.45)	Trim an additional portion of the position as valuation converges toward Potential value.

Kwartalne punkty kontrolne
Wskaźnik	Próg	Działanie
Comparable Store Sales Growth	Quarterly comparable store sales declining beyond guided expectations in Q3 or Q4	Lower multi-year revenue growth projections and place position on negative watch.
Adjusted Operating Margin	Full-year FY2026 adjusted operating margin failing to hold 8.5%

§14 Końcowa rekomendacjaEN

Działanie

Trzymaj

We maintain a Hold recommendation on Tractor Supply Company with Fair value of $34.55. At $32.91, the implied return to Fair value is 5.0%. While the company's wide economic moat and rural retail dominance remain intact, near-term operational headwinds justify maintaining existing equity positions rather than initiating new exposure.

Earnings growth is temporarily suppressed by line-haul freight inflation, negative comparable store sales (-1.5% in Q2 2026), and peak capital reinvestment for distribution center projects. Long-term investors should hold existing shares to collect recurring dividends and await clearer evidence of comp sales stabilization and free cash flow acceleration.

TSCO	Tractor Supply Company	$17.1B	14.5x	1.1x	12.1x	39.5%	—
BBY	Best Buy Co. Inc.	$19.7B	13.0x	0.5x	8.2x	43.1%	3.9%
ULTA	Ulta Beauty Inc.	$25.8B	18.8x	2.0x	14.5x	46.1%	12.5%
DPZ	Domino's Pizza Inc.	$10.4B	15.3x	2.1x	14.7x	—	20.4%
PKG	Packaging Corporation of America	$21.3B	17.7x	2.2x	12.5x	14.9%	13.1%

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Przegląd spółki

Comparable Store Sales Growth

Operating Margin Rate

Narrow

Sources of advantage

Lenses that set Fair value

Discounted Earnings

Comparable Store Sales and Transaction Counts

Adjusted Operating Margin and Freight Costs

Sources

Capital Reinvestment Pace

Average Inventory per Store and Turnover

Pet Ecosystem Restructuring and Attrition

Multi-stage Moat Fade

Forward Earnings

Cash flow DCF

Owner Earnings

Checks and reference points

Reverse DCF

PEG-adjusted Peer

Distribution Center Expansion and Reinvestment Rate Normalization

Pet Ecosystem Restructuring and Customer Acquisition

Inventory Turnover and Working Capital Health