Opcjonalna analityka produktu
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Risk: Cyclical sensitivity and extreme high beta require careful duration management.
The Trade Desk operates as the leading independent demand-side platform (DSP). It benefits from the structural shift toward programmatic advertising and Connected TV (CTV). Despite short-term ad market cyclicality, long-term secular tailwinds and high ROIC provide a strong moat.
The Trade Desk operates as the leading independent demand-side platform (DSP). It benefits from the structural shift toward programmatic advertising and Connected TV (CTV). Despite short-term ad market cyclicality, long-term secular tailwinds and high ROIC provide a strong moat.
Leading independent DSP scale and liquidity.
First-mover advantage in Connected TV (CTV) ecosystem.
Primary: Strong structural growth engine, heavily discounted by backward-looking WACC models but validated by forward EPS expectations.
A Buy driven by structural programmatic shifts and a favorable valuation setup against explicit forward growth.
The Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company creates, manages, and optimizes digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, channels and devices, including CTV and other video, display, audio, and native, on a multitude of devices, such televisions, streaming devices, mobile devices, computers and digital-out-of-home devices. It provides data and other value-added services. It serves advertising agencies, advertisers, and other service providers for agencies or advertisers. The Trade Desk, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.
A high-beta growth platform is highly vulnerable to duration risks; WACC penalties under sustained inflation can rapidly depress terminal valuation.
Walled gardens tighten restrictions, a prolonged macro ad-recession stunts growth, and UID2.0 fails to gain traction against first-party data advantages, causing growth to rapidly stall.
Major tech platforms successfully close loop in CTV, eroding independent programmatic bidding volumes.
Prolonged macroeconomic downturn triggers significant contraction in programmatic ad spend, stalling growth.
Pięć zdarzeń, które osłabiłyby naszą tezę inwestycyjną.
Operating profit contraction indicates that platform scaling and cloud infrastructure expenses are rising faster than programmatic gross billings, eroding core operating leverage and jeopardizing long-term free cash flow growth.
Obecnie:Operating margin was 20.3% for the period ended 2025-12-31.
Alarm, jeśli
Leading independent DSP scale and liquidity.
First-mover advantage in Connected TV (CTV) ecosystem.
High switching costs for agency trading desks.
Network effects from data scale and UID2.0 identity standard.
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Unavailable
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($26.88). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
FCFF DCF remains positive at the base case: base FCFF $367.5M after capex $144.8M, with terminal value at 49.7% of enterprise value. No FCF cliff is projected unless capex/revenue or gross margin materially resets.
CTV adoption accelerates, Retail Media networks expand their partnership, and UID2.0 becomes the default industry standard for identity, driving sustained growth and massive operating leverage.
If CTV growth exceeds 25%, expect multiple expansion towards bull case. If operating margins fall below 20%, anticipate severe multiple compression.
If CTV growth exceeds 25%, expect multiple expansion towards bull case. If operating margins fall below 20%, anticipate severe multiple compression.
If CTV growth exceeds 25%, expect multiple expansion towards bull case. If operating margins fall below 20%, anticipate severe multiple compression.
If CTV growth exceeds 25%, expect multiple expansion towards bull case. If operating margins fall below 20%, anticipate severe multiple compression.
Warning level: Falls below 20.0% over two consecutive quarters. Operating profit contraction indicates that platform scaling and cloud infrastructure expenses are rising faster than programmatic gross billings, eroding core operating leverage and jeopardizing long-term free cash flow growth.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Przychody | 2 896 284 000 |
|---|---|
| Koszt sprzedaży | 619 067 000 |
| Zysk brutto | 2 277 217 000 |
| Koszty operacyjne | 1 687 896 000 |
| Zysk operacyjny | 589 321 000 |
| Pozycje pozaoperacyjne i podatki | -146 017 000 |
| Zysk netto | 443 304 000 |
| Aktywa ogółem | 6 153 220 000 |
|---|---|
| Środki pieniężne | 658 175 000 |
| Aktywa obrotowe | 5 261 004 000 |
| Zobowiązania ogółem | 3 668 829 000 |
| Zobowiązania krótkoterminowe | 3 265 997 000 |
| Kapitał własny | 2 484 391 000 |
Dane finansowe na określony moment użyte w analizie z 2026-05-20.
| Okres | Przychody | EBITDA | Zysk netto | Operacyjne przepływy pieniężne | Wolne przepływy pieniężne | Capex | Amortyzacja | Wynagrodzenie w akcjach | Skup akcji | Wypłacone dywidendy | Emisja długu netto | Przepływy inwestycyjne | Przepływy finansowe | Środki pieniężne na początek | Środki pieniężne na koniec | Gotówka i inwestycje | Zadłużenie ogółem | Marża operacyjna | ROIC | WACC | Spread ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-31 | 1,6 mld | 168,1 mln | 53,4 mln | 548,7 mln | 456,8 mln | 91,9 mln | 54,4 mln | 498,6 mln | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | 1 mld | 261 mln | 7,2% | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 1,9 mld | 280,9 mln | 178,9 mln | 598,3 mln | 543,3 mln | 55 mln | 80,4 mln | 491,6 mln | 646,6 mln | — | — | — | — | — | — | 895,1 mln | 235,9 mln | 10,3% | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 2,4 mld | 514,7 mln | 393,1 mln | 739,5 mln | 632,4 mln | 107,1 mln | 87,5 mln | 494,7 mln | 234,8 mln | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1,4 mld | 312,2 mln | 17,5% | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 2,9 mld | 705,1 mln | 443,3 mln | 992,7 mln | 783 mln | 209,8 mln | 115,8 mln | 490,6 mln | 1,4 mld | — | — | — | — | — | — | 658,2 mln | 436,3 mln | 20,3% | — | — | — |
TTD trades at 9.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 22.5x; EV/EBITDA of 12.6x against a peer median of 28.9x; 6 peers.
Investment phase infrastructure; elevated capex needs but structural free cash flows remain strongly positive.
Accelerating structural shift of linear TV budgets to programmatic CTV, paired with high ROIC and secular digital tailwinds.
Extreme cyclical sensitivity (beta 1.85); macro weakness directly and immediately flows through to agency ad spend budgets.
Investment phase infrastructure; elevated capex needs but structural free cash flows remain strongly positive.
High conviction but high beta (1.85) warrants moderate initial sizing. Algorithmic certainty sits at 75%.
Trim exposure if forward growth stalls, CTV share gains flatline, or if price pushes into the upper $38+ bull range.
Buy. Intrinsic value sits comfortably above current market pricing, supported by a dominant independent DSP moat and secular CTV tailwinds.
Upside case: Risk: Cyclical sensitivity and extreme high beta require careful duration management. Downside case: Primary: Strong structural growth engine, heavily discounted by backward-looking WACC models but validated by forward EPS expectations.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
UID2.0 fails to gain traction against first-party data advantages, severely impairing targetability and ROAS.
Slowing revenue expansion indicates that connected TV ad dollars are being retained within closed ecosystems rather than shifting to open programmatic channels, reducing the platform's addressable inventory growth and market penetration.
Obecnie:Revenue growth was 18.5% for the period ended 2025-12-31.
Alarm, jeśliDecelerates below 15.0% over two consecutive quarters
If retail media networks bypass open identity frameworks for walled architectures, targeted ad inventory pricing and data integration fees decline, crimping gross profitability and lowering returns on platform technology investments.
Obecnie:Gross margin was 78.6% for the period ended 2025-12-31.
Alarm, jeśliCompresses below 75.0% over two consecutive quarters
Major agency defection or consolidation away from independent trading desks reduces platform transaction throughput, stranding capital allocations and driving down returns on invested capital across core software infrastructure.
Obecnie:ROIC was 15.9% as of the report's 2026-05-20 analysis date.
Alarm, jeśliDrops below 12.0% over a trailing twelve-month period
Tech titan closed-loop dominance limits programmatic ad bid volumes and stretches working capital cycles with media buyers, degrading cash flow generation and constraining capital reinvestment into platform feature development.
Obecnie:Operating cash flow to net income was 2.239 as of the report's 2026-05-20 analysis date.
Alarm, jeśliFalls below 1.50x over a trailing four-quarter period
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
The company benefits from the structural shift toward programmatic advertising and CTV. Long-term secular tailwinds and high ROIC provide a strong moat, balancing cyclicality.
Warning level: Decelerates below 15.0% over two consecutive quarters. Slowing revenue expansion indicates that connected TV ad dollars are being retained within closed ecosystems rather than shifting to open programmatic channels, reducing the platform's addressable inventory growth and market penetration.
Warning level: Compresses below 75.0% over two consecutive quarters. If retail media networks bypass open identity frameworks for walled architectures, targeted ad inventory pricing and data integration fees decline, crimping gross profitability and lowering returns on platform technology investments.
Warning level: Drops below 12.0% over a trailing twelve-month period. Major agency defection or consolidation away from independent trading desks reduces platform transaction throughput, stranding capital allocations and driving down returns on invested capital across core software infrastructure.
Warning level: Falls below 1.50x over a trailing four-quarter period. Tech titan closed-loop dominance limits programmatic ad bid volumes and stretches working capital cycles with media buyers, degrading cash flow generation and constraining capital reinvestment into platform feature development.
| Marża |
|---|
| TTD | The Trade Desk Inc. | $9.9B | 9.8x | 3.4x | 12.6x | — | — |
| APP | AppLovin Corporation | 22.5x | 26.8x | 34.2x | 266.4% | 78.2% | |
| OMC | Omnicom Group Inc. | 5.9x | 1.1x | 9.2x | 2.0% | 11.9% | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 19.5x | 24.9x | 40.2x | 101.5% | 65.0% | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | 26.8x | 11.1x | 28.9x | 38.9% | 36.1% | |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc. Class C | 26.6x | 11.0x | 28.7x | 38.9% | 36.1% |
