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COR trades against a final fair-value range of $342.15-$514.68, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $342, high $515, with mid-point at $428.
Stock analysis

COR COR fair value $342–$515

COR
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analisado: 2026-05-13Próxima atualização: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.4Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Preço
$260.93
▲ +166.64 (+63.86%)
Valor justo
$428
$342–$515
Classificação
Compra forte
confidence 78/100
Potencial de alta
+63.9%
upside to fair value
Margem de segurança
$363.43
MoS level · 15%
Capitalização de mercado
$50.8B
P/E fwd 13.2
Fonte em inglêsPT
Exibindo a fonte em inglês enquanto traduzimos
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§1 Resumo executivo

  • Composite fair value $428 with high case $515.
  • Implied upside of 63.9% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 78/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$428
Margin of safety
+39.0%
Confidence
78/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$260.93Price
Low $342.15
Mid $427.57
High $514.68

COR trades against a final fair-value range of $342.15-$514.68, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Cost Advantage
    Massive scale as a dominant triopoly member ensures procurement efficiency and low per-unit costs.
  • Network Effect
    Irreplaceable intermediary connecting highly fragmented retail pharmacies with global biopharma manufacturers.
  • Bull thesis
    The market is incorrectly penalizing Cencora for short-term working capital anomalies, masking the highly durable 23% ROIC.

§2 Cenário pessimista

A negative working capitalWorking capitalCurrent assets minus current liabilities. The capital tied up in the operating cycle (receivables and inventory) net of trade financing (payables). spiral combined with sustained operating marginOperating marginOperating income (EBIT) divided by revenue. Captures profitability after both direct costs and operating expenses but before interest, tax, and non-operating items. compression below 1.1% would break the capital return algorithm, rendering share repurchases dilutive.

Como esta tese pode falhar

Severe Drug Pricing Intervention

15%· Low

Aggressive legislative action structurally reduces US branded and generic drug pricing, crushing distribution fee economics and compressing margins below 1%.

FV impact
Severe (FV ~342)

Direct-to-Consumer Biopharma Pivot

10%· Low

Manufacturers systematically bypass wholesale networks for specialty and blockbuster treatments, structurally degrading top-line growth and ROIC.

FV impact
Severe (FV < 300)

Generic Deflation Acceleration

20%· Medium

Intense generic price deflation outpaces unit volume growth, eroding gross profit dollars and causing operating leverage to inflect negatively.

FV impact
Moderate
Sinais de alerta antecipado para monitorar
MétricaAtualLimite de gatilho
Operating margins persistently dropping below the 1.1% historical floor.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Negative free cash flow persists beyond short-term working capital anomalies.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major contract losses with top-tier pharmacy chains or health systems.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant manufacturer shifts to direct distribution models for high-margin specialty drugs.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Legislative shifts implementing structural caps on wholesale distribution margins.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Histórico financeiro

Demonstração de resultados — últimos seis períodos
ItemT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Período2022-09-302023-09-302024-09-302025-09-30Trend
Receita$238.59B$262.17B$293.96B$321.33B+10.4%
Lucro bruto$8.30B$8.96B$9.91B$11.48B+11.4%
Lucro operacional$2.75B$2.69B$3.16B$3.93B+12.6%
Lucro líquido$1.70B$1.75B$1.51B$1.55B-2.9%
LPA (diluído)$8.04$8.53$7.53$7.96-0.3%
EBITDA$3.10B$3.37B$3.37B$3.75B+6.5%
P&D
SG&A$4.85B$5.31B$5.66B$6.49B+10.2%

Pontuações de qualidade

OCF / Lucro líquido
2.49×
>1 indica alta qualidade dos lucros
Limite de qualidade contábil
Fail
Limite ajustado ao setor
ROIC
23.1%
Retorno sobre o capital investido
Seção 3

Numbers analysis

Alocação de capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Assinantes individuais — a partir do §411 seções a mais

Leia a análise completa — 11 seções a mais.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Relatório completo para cada ticker coberto
24 meses de arquivo de classificações
Briefings da lista de acompanhamento + alertas de mudança de classificação
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FAQ

COR — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, COR looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $261 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $428 (range $342–$515), which implies roughly 63.9% upside to the midpoint.
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