CRWD trades against a final fair-value range of $91.54-$123.84, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $91.5, high $124, with mid-point at $108.
Stock analysis
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. fair value $108–$124
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§1 Resumo executivo
Composite fair value $108 with high case $124.
Implied downside of 77.0% to fair value.
Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 74/100 · Pre-profit.
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$108
Margin of safety
-334.6%
Confidence
74/100
Moat
6.5/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$468.07Price
FV $107.69
High $123.84
CRWD trades against a final fair-value range of $91.54-$123.84, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
High switching costs associated with
High switching costs associated with deeply embedded endpoint agents.
Network effects from vast threat
Network effects from vast threat intelligence data lake.
Cycle upside
Vendor consolidation favors integrated platforms like Falcon.
§2 Cenário pessimista
At current multiples, the stock offers zero margin of safety. A failure to execute flawlessly on top-line growth or margin expansion will trigger a severe multiple contraction.
Como esta tese pode falhar
Margin Compression
· High
Fierce competition from Microsoft and PANW forces pricing compression, capping terminal margins below 20%.
FV impact
-30%
SBC Dilution
· Medium
Failure to rein in excessive stock-based compensation (22.7% of revenue) structurally impairs per-share intrinsic value.
FV impact
-20%
Growth Deceleration
· Low
Market saturation in endpoint security causes revenue growth to decelerate sharply below the 20% required by current multiples.
FV impact
-50%
Sinais de alerta antecipado para monitorar
Métrica
Atual
Limite de gatilho
Net new ARR growth decelerates for two consecutive quarters.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Gross retention dips below 97%.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
SBC remains above 20% of revenue without a clear path to the 7.8% industry median.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins fail to scale towards the 30% terminal target.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Increased discounting observed in enterprise renewals.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
§3 Histórico financeiro
Demonstração de resultados — últimos seis períodos
Item
T−0
T−1
T−2
T−3
T−4
CAGR
Período
2022-01-31
2023-01-31
2024-01-31
2025-01-31
2026-01-31
Trend
Receita
$1.45B
$2.24B
$3.06B
$3.95B
$4.81B
+34.9%
Lucro bruto
$1.07B
$1.64B
$2.30B
$2.96B
$3.59B
+35.4%
Lucro operacional
$-142.5M
$-190.1M
$-2.0M
$-120.4M
$-293.3M
—
Lucro líquido
$-234.8M
$-183.2M
$89.3M
$-19.3M
$-162.5M
—
LPA (diluído)
$-1.03
$-0.79
$0.37
$-0.08
—
—
EBITDA
$-66.0M
$-40.8M
$293.8M
$294.8M
$182.5M
—
P&D
$371.3M
$608.4M
$768.5M
$1.08B
$1.38B
+39.0%
SG&A
$839.6M
$1.22B
$1.53B
$2.01B
$2.50B
+31.4%
Pontuações de qualidade
Piotroski F-score
4 / 9
Composto de qualidade 0–9
Altman Z-score
11.4
Risco de falência (>3 seguro)
Beneish M-score
-2.95
Risco de manipulação de lucros
OCF / Lucro líquido
-9.92
>1 indica alta qualidade dos lucros
Limite de qualidade contábil
Fail
Limite ajustado ao setor
ROIC
34.9%
Retorno sobre o capital investido
Seção 3
Numbers analysis
Fluxo de caixa
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCF / net income, accounting-quality, and ROIC rows above.
Alocação de capital
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
Assinantes individuais — a partir do §411 seções a mais
Leia a análise completa — 11 seções a mais.
Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.
Relatório completo para cada ticker coberto
24 meses de arquivo de classificações
Briefings da lista de acompanhamento + alertas de mudança de classificação
Based on our latest independent analysis, CRWD looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $468 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $108 (range $91.5–$124), which implies roughly 77.0% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for CRWD is $91.5–$124, with a midpoint of $108. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.'s archetype.
Our current rating for CRWD is Sell with a confidence score of 74/100. CRWD is rated Sell at $468.07 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $107.69, implying -76.99% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 74/100. This is independent research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. are: Margin Compression; SBC Dilution; Growth Deceleration. The single biggest risk is Margin Compression: Fierce competition from Microsoft and PANW forces pricing compression, capping terminal margins below 20%.
Our current rating for CRWD is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 74/100 and a moat score of 6.5/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($91.5–$124) versus the current price of $468.
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. is classified as a pre-profit stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for CRWD.
