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DHR trades against a final fair-value range of $122.72-$203.68, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $123, high $204, with mid-point at $163.
Stock analysis

DHR Danaher Corporation fair value $163–$204

DHR
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analisado: 2026-05-10Próxima atualização: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNYSE · Health Care
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Preço
$171.16
▼ -8.06 (-4.71%)
Valor justo
$163
$163–$204
Classificação
Manter
confidence 87/100
Potencial de alta
-4.7%
upside to fair value
Margem de segurança
$138.63
buy below · 15%
Capitalização de mercado
$121.1B
P/E fwd 18.8
Fonte em inglêsPT
Exibindo a fonte em inglês enquanto traduzimos
Este relatório ainda não foi traduzido. Atualize em alguns minutos assim que a fila de tradução recuperar o atraso.

§1 Resumo executivo

  • Composite fair value $163 with high case $204.
  • Implied downside of 4.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$163
Margin of safety
-4.9%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$171.16Price
FV $163.1
High $203.68

DHR trades against a final fair-value range of $122.72-$203.68, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible Assets
    Intangible Assets
  • Switching Costs
    Switching Costs
  • Bull thesis
    Intrinsic valuation suggests downside risk.

§2 Cenário pessimista

Under severe bioprocessing market contraction and failed M&A execution, our pure intrinsic models force valuation toward the $114-$122 range. Margins revert below 19% as DBS efficiencies fail to offset volume deleverage, and the terminal multipleTerminal multipleThe exit P/E or EV/EBITDA we apply to the final year of an explicit forecast. Anchored to the business's long-run quality and the prevailing risk-free rate. contracts toward 15x as the compounding narrative breaks.

Como esta tese pode falhar

Prolonged Bioprocessing Slump

· High

Extended pharma funding constraints and destocking cap revenue growth in low single-digits.

FV impact
-25%

M&A Integration Failure

· Medium

A major acquisition fails to realize DBS synergies, destroying ROIC and stalling margin expansion.

FV impact
-15%

China Market Deterioration

· Medium

Deepening macro weakness and localized competition in China structurally erode regional market share and profitability.

FV impact
-10%
Sinais de alerta antecipado para monitorar
MétricaAtualLimite de gatilho
Consumables growth turning negativeMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin contracting below 19%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unexplained delays in M&A integration milestonesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising days sales outstanding in emerging marketsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
CapEx to depreciation ratio falling below 0.75MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Histórico financeiro

Demonstração de resultados — últimos seis períodos
ItemT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Período2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Receita$24.80B$26.64B$23.89B$23.88B$24.57B-0.2%
Lucro bruto$15.24B$16.19B$14.03B$14.21B$14.52B-1.2%
Lucro operacional$6.39B$7.54B$5.20B$4.86B$4.69B-7.4%
Lucro líquido$6.43B$7.21B$4.76B$3.90B$3.61B-13.4%
LPA (diluído)$9.66$6.38$5.29$5.05-15.0%
EBITDA$8.80B$9.48B$7.50B$7.28B$6.95B-5.8%
P&D$1.50B$1.53B$1.50B$1.58B$1.60B+1.6%
SG&A$6.81B$7.12B$7.33B$7.76B$8.24B+4.9%

Pontuações de qualidade

Piotroski F-score
5 / 9
Composto de qualidade 0–9
Altman Z-score
3.69
Risco de falência (>3 seguro)
Beneish M-score
-2.57
Risco de manipulação de lucros
OCF / Lucro líquido
1.78×
>1 indica alta qualidade dos lucros
Limite de qualidade contábil
Pass
Limite ajustado ao setor
ROIC
4.9%
Retorno sobre o capital investido
Seção 3

Numbers analysis

Alocação de capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Assinantes individuais — a partir do §411 seções a mais

Leia a análise completa — 11 seções a mais.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Relatório completo para cada ticker coberto
24 meses de arquivo de classificações
Briefings da lista de acompanhamento + alertas de mudança de classificação
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FAQ

DHR — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest independent analysis, DHR trades close to fair value. The current price is $171 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $163 (range $123–$204), which implies roughly 4.7% downside to the midpoint.
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