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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
FTV — frequently asked questions
Is Fortive Corporation overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-11, FTV screens modestly overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 57,3 versus our fair value of USD 53,0; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 60,2. That implies roughly 7.5% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-11, gives FTV a fair value of USD 53,0 and a potential value of USD 60,2. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Fortive Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy FTV now?
Our latest published rating for FTV, analyzed 2026-10-11, is Hold. Fortive Corporation screens modestly overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 57,3 versus fair value of USD 53,0; potential value is USD 60,2. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for FTV?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-11 documents Fortive Corporation's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is FTV's rating?
Our latest published rating for FTV, analyzed 2026-10-11, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD 53,0, the potential value of USD 60,2, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 57,3).
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§1 Resumo executivoEN
Resposta em 30 segundosHold
Preço versus valor
Preço
$57.26
Valor justo
$52.99
Valor potencial
$60.16
Em
2026-10-09
Por que pode funcionar
Accelerated customer migration to recurring cloud software platforms in Intelligent Operating Solutions and sustained Fortive Business System operational improvements expanding consolidated operating margins toward 21.0%, unlocking intrinsic value toward Potential value of USD 60.16.
O que mudaria nossa visão
A 5% or greater contraction in Intelligent Operating Solutions organic revenue caused by industrial manufacturing capex curtailments and equipment replacement pauses.
We rate Fortive Corporation Hold. The stock traded at USD 57.26 on October 9, 2026, representing an 8.06% premium to our Fair value of USD 52.99, leaving an unfavorable risk-reward balance until price aligns with intrinsic value.4
A Hold rating indicates that existing investors should maintain their current position size while new investors wait for a more compelling entry price. Fortive operates high-quality businesses with strong free cash flow, but the equity does not offer an adequate margin of safety at its valuation level on the report date.
The analysis was conducted at a share price of USD 57.26 on October 9, 2026. This level trades 8.06% above our house Fair value of USD 52.99, which translates to a negative 7.46% implied return to fair value. The high end of our valuation range sits at a Potential value of USD 60.16, offering only 5.06% upside from the report-date price if operational catalysts execute ahead of schedule.4
The primary risk to our thesis is an industrial capex curtailment that dampens demand for Intelligent Operating Solutions hardware test tools and connected sensors. Because Intelligent Operating Solutions generated USD 2,856.3 million, or 68.7% of total revenue in FY2025, a 5% drop in segment demand would erode operating leverage, reduce operating profit, and lower earnings per share, pushing equity valuation toward our bear kill-scenario threshold.6
The primary path for value creation lies in expanding higher-margin recurring software subscriptions within Intelligent Operating Solutions, paired with Fortive Business System operational rigor. If connected software adoption accelerates and gross margins remain resilient near 63.50%, consolidated operating margins could expand beyond baseline projections, lifting annual free cash flow above USD 1,000 million and driving equity value toward our Potential value of USD 60.16.5
High-Margin Operational Stickiness
Proprietary software and mission-critical Fluke instrumentation embed deeply into client operations, supporting gross margins of 63.50% in FY2025.5
Operating cash flow of USD 1,083.2 million in FY2025 delivered a 1.87x conversion of net income, supporting compounding and disciplined capital return.5
Switching Costs
High customer switching costs stem from deep integration of Fluke connected instrumentation, calibration protocols, and specialized maintenance management software into daily facility operations and safety compliance.6
Recomendação da casa
We rate Fortive Corporation Hold because the share price of USD 57.26 trades above our Fair value of USD 52.99, requiring an entry price pullback before capital deployment is warranted.4
Visão geral da empresa
Fortive Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets professional instrumentation, software solutions, and healthcare sterilization equipment to enterprise customers globally. The company operates through two primary reporting business segments: Intelligent Operating Solutions and Advanced Healthcare Solutions.
Intelligent Operating Solutions provides precision test tools, electrical sensing instruments, and facility maintenance software, while Advanced Healthcare Solutions delivers low-temperature terminal sterilization systems and consumable biological indicators to hospitals and surgical centers. Customer demand across capital equipment and sterilization consumables experiences fourth-quarter seasonal strength and cadence aligned with new product introductions, though overall consolidated operations exhibit minimal seasonal variability.
§2 Cenário pessimistaEN
Under a simultaneous macroeconomic stress test where global manufacturing capex contracts by 5% and interest rates remain elevated, Fortive faces compressed operating margins. Historical precedent demonstrates vulnerability during industrial downturns: consolidated EBIT margins dropped to 9.73% in FY2019 and 11.64% in FY2020. With current liabilities of USD 2,246.6 million against cash of USD 375.5 million as of FY2025, cash generation would be diverted toward debt service (total debt USD 3,206.0 million) rather than accretive share buybacks. If the exit multiple derates to 14.3x in line with Broadridge and cost of capital expands by 200 bps, intrinsic value falls to our lower bound of USD 47.69.
The downside scenario evaluates the impact of an industrial manufacturing capex contraction and deferred equipment replacement cycles across core customer segments. Contraction in discretionary testing tool demand and slower software migrations compress operating margins, while valuation multiples compress toward lower-multiple workflow peers. This risk pathway would be confirmed by consecutive quarters of negative organic revenue growth in Intelligent Operating Solutions.
Como esta tese pode falhar
Industrial Automation and Capex Contraction in IOS
Intelligent Operating Solutions accounts for USD 2,856.3 million (68.7%) of revenue and USD 738.3 million of operating profit. A 5% contraction in IOS demand caused by automotive and industrial manufacturing capex curtailments would impair operating leverage and reduce consolidated EPS by 15-20%.6
FV impact
-1.7%
Sinais de alerta antecipado para monitorar
Os cinco desenvolvimentos que enfraqueceriam a nossa tese de investimento.
Alerta se-5.0% YoY or below for two consecutive quarters
02
§3 Vantagem competitivaEN
Narrow
Fortive Corporation possesses a narrow economic moat underpinned by high customer switching costs across specialized industrial instrumentation and mission-critical enterprise software, complemented by intangible brand assets and stringent regulatory clearances in healthcare sterilization. These structural barriers insulate Fortive from direct price competition and sustain returns on invested capital above its 9.42% cost of equity.
In Intelligent Operating Solutions, which generated USD 2,856.3 million (68.7%) of FY2025 revenue, Fluke's pervasive installed base of testing and sensing tools forms the operational standard for facility maintenance technicians. Embedding connected sensors and software applications directly into enterprise maintenance operations creates steep switching hurdles, as displacing Fortive requires retraining workforces and reconfiguring facility systems.
In Advanced Healthcare Solutions, Fortive's sterilization franchise benefits from deep regulatory integration. Sterilization systems and proprietary chemical consumable indicators require rigorous healthcare compliance validation, deterring generic substitution in hospital operating rooms and central processing units.
Lucro econômico
Fortive generated operating income of USD 720.2 million in FY2025 on invested capital of USD 9,659.4 million. Returns comfortably exceed the moderate cost of equity of 9.42% and WACC of 8.76%, supporting value creation across our 10-year stage II competitive fade horizon.2,5
7.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Switching Costs — High customer switching costs stem from deep integration of Fluke connected instrumentation, calibration protocols, and specialized maintenance management software into daily facility operations and safety compliance.Wide
02Intangible Assets and Regulatory Clearances — Fluke's recognized brand equity in electrical test tools combined with healthcare compliance clearances and validated hospital sterilization chemistries create durable barriers against uncertified competitors.Moderate
Ameaças conhecidas à vantagem competitiva
Ameaça
Gravidade
Cronograma
Mitigação
Peer Software Expansion and Pricing Competition
medium
12 to 36 months
Continuous R&D reinvestment (USD 259.2 million in FY2025) and Fortive Business System lean operational execution sustaining gross margins above 63%.5
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($52.99). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Mid-single-digit revenue expansion driven by field maintenance digitization
Gradual operating margin expansion through Fortive Business System efficiency gains
Normalized cash conversion supporting steady capital returns
The base case projects intrinsic value reaching $52.99 with an assigned probability of 60.0%, offering an implied return of -7.5% relative to $57.26 (as of 2026-10-09). This trajectory assumes steady mid-single-digit organic growth across Intelligent Operating Solutions, continuous Fortive Business System operational improvements expanding operating margins through FY2030, and disciplined share repurchases. Disconfirmation would occur if segment operating margins deteriorate or if industrial capex freezes in North America and EMEA.
Upgrade the rating; Consider expanding allocation as operational acceleration verifies software transition milestones and pushes intrinsic value above $57.26.
Gatilho: Consolidated revenue and diluted earnings per share exceed consensus expectations, driven by accelerated software subscription growth and segment operating margin expansion in Intelligent Operating Solutions.
An earnings beat driven by accelerating recurring software attach demonstrates strengthening competitive moats and enhanced operating leverage, justifying an upward revision in intrinsic valuation toward $60.16.
Em linha
Maintain Hold; Keep existing allocation unchanged without committing new capital, awaiting a price retracement toward Fair value before adding shares.
Gatilho: Operating results meet consensus expectations with mid-single digit top-line expansion and steady gross margins across both operating divisions.
Meeting expectations confirms that the business is compounding in line with the base forecast, but does not provide sufficient catalyst to overcome the premium of $57.26 (as of 2026-10-09) over $52.99.
Aquém
Downgrade the rating; Re-examine thesis assumptions, lower position exposure, and tighten downside risk limits if customer deferrals extend into subsequent quarters.
Gatilho: Consolidated revenue contracts year-over-year with operating margin contraction in Intelligent Operating Solutions caused by delayed factory testing tool orders.
An earnings miss driven by cyclical industrial capex contraction invalidates intermediate margin expansion assumptions and confirms that discretionary hardware exposure outweighs recurring software stability.
Qualidade dos lucros
Fortive demonstrates robust earnings quality characterized by operating cash flows that substantially exceed reported net income. Cash generation is anchored by non-discretionary software subscriptions, equipment calibration services, and hospital sterilization consumables. The business model maintains minimal capital expenditure requirements, low inventory obsolescence risk, and steady working capital management, confirming that reported earnings reflect genuine underlying cash compounding rather than accounting accruals.
Evolução das estimativas
Consensus estimates for FY2026 and FY2027 revenue and diluted earnings per share remained flat following the second-quarter earnings release, reflecting steady operational execution in line with management guidance without material upward or downward revisions across the analyst cohort.
Métricas a observar antes do anúncio
01
Métrica:
Intelligent Operating Solutions Organic Growth
AtualTracking in line with consensus expectations for mid-single digit growth following the recent quarterly financial filing.
Por que importa
IOS generates the majority of revenue and earnings; sustained organic growth verifies customer demand for connected test instrumentation and field maintenance software, directly driving consolidated operating income.
Fortive's cash flow generation remains exemplary. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached USD 1,083.2 million, representing a 1.87x conversion ratio against reported net income of USD 579.2 million. Capital expenditures were limited to USD 105.1 million, resulting in free cash flow of USD 978.1 million. Historical free cash flow has demonstrated steady durability, recording USD 1,207.4 million in FY2022. Depreciation of USD 437.6 million in FY2025 comfortably exceeds annual maintenance capex, ensuring sustained owner earnings generation.5,7
Stable return on invested capital above cost of capital confirms that Fortive's software transitions and asset-light operations generate genuine economic profit, justifying a 10-year stage II competitive fade horizon in valuation modeling.
Operating returns on capital consistently exceed the moderate cost of equity of 9.42% and cost of capital WACC of 8.76%, reflecting disciplined Fortive Business System capital stewardship.
FY2025 operating cash flow of USD 1,083.2 million delivered 1.87x conversion of net income (USD 579.2 million), generating USD 978.1 million in after USD 105.1 million in .
Receita mais recenteUS$ 4,2 biCAGR da receita −2,8%
Margem operacional17,3%10 períodos fiscais
Fluxo de caixa livre mais recenteUS$ 978,1 miFY2025
Dívida líquidaUS$ 2,8 biFY2025
Detalhamento da demonstração de resultadosComo a escala do negócio se converte em lucro reportado.
StockMarketAgent.AI
ReceitaUS$ 4,2 biCusto das receitas−US$ 1,5 biLucro brutoUS$ 2,6 biDespesas operacionais−US$ 1,9 biLucro operacionalUS$ 720,2 miItens não operacionais e impostos−US$ 141 miLucro líquidoUS$ 579,2 mi
Dados do histórico financeiro
Receita
US$ 4.159.100.000
Custo das receitas
US$ 1.518.000.000
Lucro bruto
US$ 2.641.100.000
Despesas operacionais
US$ 1.920.900.000
Lucro operacional
US$ 720.200.000
Itens não operacionais e impostos
-US$ 141.000.000
Lucro líquido
US$ 579.200.000
Visão geral do balançoComo os ativos reportados são mantidos e financiados no período selecionado.
Fortive Corporation (FTV) trades at 17.3x forward earnings against a peer median of 18.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 16.4x compares with a peer median of 15.4x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Teledyne Technologies Incorporated, Keysight Technologies Inc., Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc. and GoDaddy Inc., as of 2026-10-11.
§10 Setor e cicloEN
Fase do ciclo
Expansion
Industry capital benchmarks indicate an ongoing expansionary phase, with industry capex-to-depreciation standing at 1.41 and industry capex-to-revenue at 5.7%. Fortive operates at a substantially more asset-light intensity, with FY2025 capex of USD 105.1 million on revenue of USD 4,159.1 million, generating a 2.53% capex-to-revenue ratio.5
Ciclo de alta
An industrial upcycle driven by accelerated factory automation, semiconductor manufacturing expansions, and stringent workplace safety mandates spurs robust demand for precision test tools, connected monitoring sensors, and hospital sterilization equipment.
Ciclo de baixa
A manufacturing slowdown marked by industrial capex deferrals, reduced plant utilization, and hospital capital budgeting constraints dampens instrument replacement cycles and delays enterprise software deployments.
Tendências seculares
Tendência
Impacto
Nota
Industrial Asset Digitization and IoT Monitoring
positive
Enterprise industrial clients increasingly connect handheld test instruments and vibration sensors to cloud maintenance platforms to prevent catastrophic downtime.
Healthcare Sterilization Compliance Standards
positive
Tightening global healthcare regulatory protocols enforce non-discretionary utilization of validated low-temperature sterilization chemistries and biological monitoring consumables.
Manufacturing Automation and Electrification
positive
Posicionamento
Fortive positions itself as an asset-light, high-gross-margin instrumentation and software provider. By maintaining low capex requirements (2.53% of revenue in FY2025) relative to the 5.7% industry average, Fortive captures premium gross margins (63.50%) and protects cash flow generation across shifting demand phases.5
§11 Gestão de posiçãoEN
Dimensionamento
2-3%
With a Hold rating and the share price of USD 57.26 on October 9, 2026 trading at an 8.06% premium to our Fair value of USD 52.99, an underweight-to-neutral position size of 2-3% is warranted. Fresh capital deployment should be withheld until market prices retrace to or below Fair value.4
Risco
Enforce strict portfolio exposure caps of 3.0% maximum allocation for industrial and test instrumentation compounders. Rebalance capital away from the stock if share price appreciates toward Potential value (USD 60.16) without accompanying organic revenue acceleration, preserving disciplined capital protection.
Tranches de entrada
Nível
Ação
Por quê
USD 52.99
Initial Entry Tranche
House Fair value midpoint, where implied return turns positive and valuation aligns with long-term compounder fundamentals.
Fortive's durable competitive position, strong free cash flow conversion of 1.87x net income, and asset-light operations make it an attractive holding, but the share price of USD 57.26 on October 9, 2026 sits 8.06% above our Fair value of USD 52.99, precluding new purchases.4,5
Value / Margin of Safety Investor
Hold
The stock does not currently offer an adequate margin of safety.
Defensive / Downside-Conscious Investor
Avoid
Exposure to cyclical industrial manufacturing capex in Intelligent Operating Solutions (68.7% of FY2025 revenue) and near-term liabilities of USD 2,246.6 million make the stock vulnerable to earnings contraction during macroeconomic softening.5,6
§14 Recomendação finalEN
Ação
Manter
Fortive Corporation is a high-quality compounder with robust free cash flow conversion and defensive positions in mission-critical niches. However, trading at USD 57.26 on October 9, 2026, the shares sit 8.06% above our Fair value of USD 52.99. We recommend holding existing positions while awaiting a more favorable valuation entry point.4
While Fortive's software transformation and FBS execution provide long-term earnings durability, cyclical industrial sensitivity in hardware test tools limits intermediate upside. Re-entry should be prioritized if price aligns with intrinsic value.
§15Your notes
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-11 · Published 2026-10-11 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 1 figureCited in Cenário pessimista
Financial statementsData as of 2022-12-31 · Published 2026-10-11 · cited for 1 figureCited in Histórico financeiro
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
The terminal multiple assumption of 18.0x sits substantially above direct peer Broadridge at 14.29x forward P/E. If Fortive's moderating revenue growth (3.9% in FY2027) compresses its exit multiple toward Broadridge's level (14.3x), intrinsic equity value falls by 20%.1,3
FV impact
-6.5%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
Sustained Cost of Capital Expansion in High-Rate Regime
The computed cost of equity moderate of 9.4184% underpins the DCF models. A 200 bps increase in discount rates across equity-claim DCF models to 11.42% drives down discounted earnings by 22.7% and multi-stage moat fade by 23.8%.2
Overpayment for software acquisitions or failure to realize operational synergies risking non-cash goodwill impairment on the balance sheet (goodwill USD 7,298.3 million).
Atual:ROIC exceeds 9.42% cost of equity on invested capital of USD 9,659.4 million
Alerta seROIC falling below cost of equity of 9.42% on a sustained basis
The bull case models upside reaching $60.16 with a probability of 20.0%, generating an implied return of 5.1% from $57.26 (as of 2026-10-09). This outcome requires accelerated conversion of legacy hardware clients into recurring cloud software subscriptions within Intelligent Operating Solutions, accompanied by stronger hospital procedure volumes in healthcare sterilization. Faster margin expansion toward Potential value of $60.16 would be disconfirmed if peer competition limits software pricing power.
AtualConsistently elevated above industry peers due to specialized proprietary hardware and high-margin recurring software.
AtualDemand remains steady across European and Asian manufacturing and healthcare compliance markets.
Por que importa
Geographic diversification cushions cyclical industrial swings in North America; regional weakness would reveal broader macroeconomic or trade friction impacts.
AtualOperating cash generation comfortably exceeds net income, supporting compounding and capital returns.
Por que importa
Asset-light operations and disciplined working capital management ensure high conversion of net profit into cash flow, funding share repurchases and software acquisitions.
Sterilization consumable sales are tied to hospital surgical procedures rather than capital equipment budgets, providing non-cyclical cash flow support.
Capital allocation reflects balanced shareholder return and portfolio enhancement. In FY2025, Fortive repurchased USD 1,610.1 million of common shares, reducing diluted average shares to 334.6 million from 352.8 million in FY2024 and 355.6 million in FY2023. Dividends paid totaled USD 92.2 million in FY2025. Debt management resulted in net debt repayments of USD 714.8 million in FY2025, supporting a stable long-term balance sheet structure.
Fortive achieved a 63.50% gross margin in FY2025 (gross profit USD 2,641.1 million on revenue USD 4,159.1 million), outpacing peer Teledyne at 43.34% and the industry average of 26.8%.
Specialized positioning and mission-critical functionality allow Fortive to protect unit pricing despite cost pressures.
Expansion in electric vehicle infrastructure and industrial automation drives sustained demand for Fluke precision electrical test and measurement devices.