Gilead Sciences is a highly cash-generative, mature biopharma business anchored by its dominant HIV franchise. While top-line growth is constrained by patent maturities and competition, immense free cash flow generation easily supports a robust dividend and strategic oncology acquisitions. Fair value range: low $103, high $163, with mid-point at $132.
Stock analysis
Gilead Sciences Inc.GILD Gilead Sciences Inc. fair value $132–$163
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§1 Resumo executivo
Fairly valued with a synthesized target of $132.47 compared to a current price of $134.06.
Dominant but mature HIV franchise faces long-term growth constraints and patent expirations.
Immense free cash flow easily supports a robust dividend and ongoing strategic oncology investments.
Near-term multiple expansion requires significant commercial breakthroughs in the oncology pipeline.
Fair value
$132
Margin of safety
-1.2%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$134.06Price
FV $132.47
High $163
Gilead Sciences is a highly cash-generative, mature biopharma business anchored by its dominant HIV franchise. While top-line growth is constrained by patent maturities and competition, immense free cash flow generation easily supports a robust dividend and strategic oncology acquisitions.
Intangible Assets (Patents)
Intangible Assets (Patents)
Scale
Scale
Cycle upside
Accelerated approval of novel oncology therapies.
§2 Cenário pessimista
A stress test scenario combining significant margin compression and revenue stagnation yields a fair value floor around $92-$102, anchored by sustainable dividend yields but penalizing the lack of top-line growth.
Como esta tese pode falhar
Biktarvy LOE Collapse
· High
Rapid market share loss following the loss of exclusivity for Biktarvy without adequate replacement from the oncology pipeline.
FV impact
Down to ~$102
Trigger
Medium-Term
Oncology Pipeline Failure
· Medium
Late-stage clinical trial failures for key oncology assets fail to offset the impending revenue decay in virology.
FV impact
Down to ~$108
Trigger
Near-Term
Aggressive Pricing Reform
· Medium
Severe regulatory pricing pressures in the core HIV portfolio significantly compress operating margins.
FV impact
Down to ~$115
Trigger
Near-Term
Sinais de alerta antecipado para monitorar
Métrica
Atual
Limite de gatilho
Decelerating revenue growth in the core HIV franchise.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Clinical trial setbacks in the oncology pipeline.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Contraction of operating margins below historical averages.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Increased competitive intensity in the long-acting HIV market.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Failure to efficiently deploy free cash flow into accretive acquisitions.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
§3 Histórico financeiro
Demonstração de resultados — últimos seis períodos
Item
T−0
T−1
T−2
T−3
T−4
CAGR
Período
2021-12-31
2022-12-31
2023-12-31
2024-12-31
2025-12-31
Trend
Receita
$27.31B
$27.28B
$27.12B
$28.75B
$29.44B
+1.9%
Lucro bruto
$20.70B
$21.62B
$20.62B
$22.50B
$23.21B
+2.9%
Lucro operacional
$10.86B
$10.97B
$8.84B
$10.60B
$11.70B
+1.9%
Lucro líquido
$6.23B
$4.59B
$5.67B
$480.0M
$8.51B
+8.1%
LPA (diluído)
$4.93
$3.64
$4.50
$0.38
$6.78
+8.3%
EBITDA
$11.33B
$8.85B
$10.50B
$4.43B
$13.58B
+4.6%
P&D
$4.60B
$4.98B
$5.72B
$5.91B
$5.80B
+6.0%
SG&A
$5.25B
$5.67B
$6.06B
$6.00B
$5.71B
+2.1%
Pontuações de qualidade
Piotroski F-score
8 / 9
Composto de qualidade 0–9
Altman Z-score
4.3
Risco de falência (>3 seguro)
Beneish M-score
-2.45
Risco de manipulação de lucros
OCF / Lucro líquido
1.18×
>1 indica alta qualidade dos lucros
Limite de qualidade contábil
Pass
Limite ajustado ao setor
ROIC
2.9%
Retorno sobre o capital investido
Seção 3
Numbers analysis
Fluxo de caixa
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCF / net income, accounting-quality, and ROIC rows above.
Alocação de capital
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
Assinantes individuais — a partir do §411 seções a mais
Leia a análise completa — 11 seções a mais.
Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.
Relatório completo para cada ticker coberto
24 meses de arquivo de classificações
Briefings da lista de acompanhamento + alertas de mudança de classificação
Based on our latest independent analysis, GILD trades close to fair value. The current price is $134 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $132 (range $103–$163), which implies roughly 1.2% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for GILD is $103–$163, with a midpoint of $132. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for Gilead Sciences Inc.'s archetype.
Our current rating for GILD is Hold with a confidence score of 88/100. Hold. The synthesized fair value of $132.47 aligns closely with the current market price of $134.06. Upside is limited without significant pipeline success, but downside is protected by a strong fundamental yield. This is independent research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for Gilead Sciences Inc. are: Biktarvy LOE Collapse; Oncology Pipeline Failure; Aggressive Pricing Reform. The single biggest risk is Biktarvy LOE Collapse: Rapid market share loss following the loss of exclusivity for Biktarvy without adequate replacement from the oncology pipeline.
Our current rating for GILD is Hold, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 6.5/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($103–$163) versus the current price of $134.
Gilead Sciences Inc. is classified as a mature-dividend stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for GILD.
