Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)
NASDAQ: HOOD · Real-Time Price · USD
$77.0
+0.75 (+1.0%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: HOOD rated Sell
Sell due to extreme valuation disconnect and cyclical peak earnings.
Fair value (mid)
$27.4 / share
$12.1 – $41.6
Upside to FV
-63.7%
from $77.0
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Robinhood successfully diversifies away from transaction-based revenues. Gold subscriptions, credit card uptake, and retirement account growth create a sticky, recurring revenue base. Crypto adoption enters a multi-year supercycle, driving massive free cash flow.
Biggest risk
ZIRP Returns
The biggest risk is that the bear-case drivers materialize: growth slows, margins compress, or competitive pressure reduces the fair-value range.
Recommended action
Sell
HOOD is rated Sell at $75.41 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $27.39, implying -63.68% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $67.9B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 4.6B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 1.9B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $2.06 | |
| Shares out | 900.5M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 37.4x | |
| P/E (forward) | 27.6x | |
| Volume | 18,141,880 | |
| Beta | 2.29 | |
| Price target | $106 | +37.4% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 4.6B
- Net income (ttm)
- 1.9B
- EPS (ttm)
- $2.06
- P/E (trailing)
- 37.4x
- P/E (forward)
- 27.6x
- Market cap
- $67.9B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $1.36B | $1.87B | $2.95B | $4.47B | +48.8% |
| Gross profit | $770.0M | $1.72B | $2.34B | $3.73B | +69.2% |
| Operating income | $-966.0M | $-536.0M | $1.05B | $2.09B | — |
| Net income | $-1.03B | $-541.0M | $1.41B | $1.88B | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-1.17 | $-0.61 | $1.56 | $2.05 | — |
| EBITDA | $-905.0M | $-465.0M | $1.13B | $2.18B | — |
| R&D | $878.0M | $805.0M | $818.0M | $897.0M | +0.7% |
| SG&A | $725.0M | $1.29B | $363.0M | $576.0M | -7.4% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $12.1
- Fair value (mid)
- $27.4
- Fair value (high)
- $41.6
- Current price
- $77.0
- Upside to mid
- -63.7%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income | $17.35 | 40% |
| Forward earnings | $34.09 | 60% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $20.96 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $35.18 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $21.44 | 0% |
| FCFF DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Owner earnings | $78.13 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.00 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$106
+37.4%
In the news
Latest news · HOOD
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $67.9B
- P/E (trailing)
- 37.4x
- P/E (forward)
- 27.6x
- P/S
- 15.0x
- P/B
- 7.4x
- PEG
- 2.51
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 92.2%
- Operating margin
- 46.3%
- ROE
- 21.5%
- ROA
- 5.2%
- ROIC
- 8.4%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 1.40
- Current ratio
- 1.11
- Quick ratio
- 1.07
Trading
- Beta
- 2.29
- Volume
- 18,141,880
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -65.0% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$41.64
-44.8% from spot
Robinhood successfully diversifies away from transaction-based revenues. Gold subscriptions, credit card uptake, and retirement account growth create a sticky, recurring revenue base. Crypto adoption enters a multi-year supercycle, driving massive free cash flow.
- Crypto supercycle
- Gold subscriptions scale massively
- Margins remain structurally elevated
Base55%
Price target
$27.39
-63.7% from spot
Rates normalize downward, bringing operating margins from peak 46.8% to a sustainable 40%. The company maintains steady growth in Gold and retirement accounts, transitioning into a mature financial platform while facing normalized trading volumes.
- Rates normalize downward
- Margins settle at 40%
- Steady platform growth
Bear25%
Price target
$12.08
-84.0% from spot
The Federal Reserve cuts rates aggressively to zero, obliterating net interest revenues. Regulatory action bans Payment for Order Flow (PFOF) or severely restricts crypto trading. Retail engagement wanes during a prolonged bear market.
- Aggressive rate cuts to zero
- Retail engagement wanes
- PFOF restrictions
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $27.4.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residual income | 40% | $17.4 | -77.5% | |
| Forward earnings | 60% | $34.1 | -55.7% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $21.0 | -72.8% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $35.2 | -54.3% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $21.4 | -72.2% | |
| FCFF DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $78.1 | +1.4% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $27.4 | -63.7% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to composite fair-value midpoint ($26.74). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.9% | $29.6 | $31.2 | $33.1 | $35.2 | $37.6 |
| 11.9% | $26.7 | $28.1 | $29.6 | $31.2 | $33.1 |
| 12.9% | $24.4 | $25.5 | $26.7 | $28.1 | $29.6 |
| 13.9% | $22.4 | $23.4 | $24.4 | $25.5 | $26.7 |
| 14.9% | $20.8 | $21.6 | $22.4 | $23.4 | $24.4 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet5.0
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment5.0
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality6.0
Capital Efficiency5.0
Weighted composite
6.0/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 82/100
Target weight
Avoid long positions given the significant downside risk to intrinsic value (-63.68%).
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$77.0
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Sell existing positions due to massive premium vs intrinsic value and cyclical peak earnings.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E27.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE21.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC8.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All HOOD indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
228
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 228 of 228 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on HOOD
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this HOOD report
What is the current HOOD stock rating?
Robinhood Markets, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full HOOD analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/HOOD/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for HOOD?
The latest report frames HOOD around $12 to $42. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the HOOD page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellHOOD · Fair value $27.4-63.7% · Confidence 82/100