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KLAC trades against a final fair-value range of $735.74-$1,243.87, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $736, high $1244, with mid-point at $984.
Stock analysis

KLAC fair value $736–$1,244

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analisado: 2026-05-08Próxima atualização: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Preço
$1869.19
▼ -884.78 (-47.33%)
Valor justo
$984
$736–$1244
Classificação
Vender
confidence 84/100
Potencial de alta
-47.3%
upside to fair value
Margem de segurança
$836.75
MoS level · 15%
Capitalização de mercado
$244.2B
P/E fwd 37.7
Fonte em inglêsPT
Exibindo a fonte em inglês enquanto traduzimos
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§1 Resumo executivo

  • Composite fair value $984 with high case $1,244.
  • Implied downside of 47.3% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 84/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$984
Margin of safety
-89.9%
Confidence
84/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$1,869.19Price
Low $735.74
Mid $984.41
High $1,243.87

KLAC trades against a final fair-value range of $735.74-$1,243.87, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Dominant market share in advanced
    Dominant market share in advanced metrology and inspection.
  • High capital intensity of advanced
    High capital intensity of advanced node defect detection.
  • Bull thesis
    Value: Extreme overvaluation relative to normalized cash flows.

§2 Cenário pessimista

A synchronized downturn in global WFE spending combined with strict export bans on advanced metrology tools to China severely contracts near-term revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions.. Elevated R&D requirements for 2nm transitions crush operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA., forcing margins well below mid-cycle averages.

Como esta tese pode falhar

China Export Ban Expansion

· Medium

Complete restriction on all tier-1 process control equipment sales to Chinese foundries, eliminating a high-margin revenue vector.

FV impact
High
Trigger
12-24 months

WFE Cyclical Collapse

· Medium

Prolonged memory and foundry capex freeze delays 2nm and advanced packaging ramps, stalling KLA's growth trajectory.

FV impact
High
Trigger
6-18 months

Margin Compression via R&D

· Low

Defect detection at angstrom levels demands exponentially higher R&D, structurally degrading peak operating margins below 35%.

FV impact
Moderate
Trigger
24-36 months
Sinais de alerta antecipado para monitorar
MétricaAtualLimite de gatilho
Consecutive quarters of declining WFE capex forecasts.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Increased stringency in US Department of Commerce export controls.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential operating margin degradation below 38%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Delay in major foundry 2nm production schedules.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deceleration in advanced packaging (CoWoS) capacity expansion.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Histórico financeiro

Demonstração de resultados — últimos seis períodos
ItemT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Período2021-06-302022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
Receita—$9.21B$10.50B$9.81B$12.16B+7.2%
Lucro bruto—$5.62B$6.28B$5.88B$7.40B+7.1%
Lucro operacional—$3.65B$3.99B$3.64B$5.01B+8.2%
Lucro líquido—$3.32B$3.39B$2.76B$4.06B+5.2%
LPA (diluído)$13.37$21.92$24.15$20.28—+11.0%
EBITDA—$4.01B$4.50B$3.90B$5.34B+7.4%
P&D—$1.11B$1.30B$1.28B$1.36B+5.3%
SG&A—$860.0M$986.3M$969.5M$1.03B+4.6%

Pontuações de qualidade

Piotroski F-score
9 / 9
Composto de qualidade 0–9
Altman Z-score
14.61
Risco de falência (>3 seguro)
Beneish M-score
-2.25
Risco de manipulação de lucros
OCF / Lucro líquido
1.01×
>1 indica alta qualidade dos lucros
Limite de qualidade contábil
Pass
Limite ajustado ao setor
ROIC
36.2%
Retorno sobre o capital investido
Seção 3

Numbers analysis

Fluxo de caixa

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Alocação de capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Assinantes individuais — a partir do §411 seções a mais

Leia a análise completa — 11 seções a mais.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Relatório completo para cada ticker coberto
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Briefings da lista de acompanhamento + alertas de mudança de classificação
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SCENARIOS FAQ

KLAC scenarios questions

  1. Each scenario for KLAC (KLAC) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

FAQ

KLAC — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, KLAC looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $1869 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $984 (range $736–$1244), which implies roughly 47.3% downside to the midpoint.

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