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LRCX trades against a final fair-value range of $132.71-$237.30, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $133, high $237, with mid-point at $183.
Stock analysis

LRCX Lam Research Corporation fair value $183–$237

LRCX
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analisado: 2026-05-08Próxima atualização: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNASDAQ · Information Technology
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Preço
$295.15
▼ -111.67 (-37.84%)
Valor justo
$183
$183–$237
Classificação
Vender
confidence 87/100
Potencial de alta
-37.8%
upside to fair value
Margem de segurança
$155.96
buy below · 15%
Capitalização de mercado
$369.1B
P/E fwd 37.3
Fonte em inglêsPT
Exibindo a fonte em inglês enquanto traduzimos
Este relatório ainda não foi traduzido. Atualize em alguns minutos assim que a fila de tradução recuperar o atraso.

§1 Resumo executivo

  • Composite fair value $183 with high case $237.
  • Implied downside of 37.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$183
Margin of safety
-60.9%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$295.16Price
FV $183.48
High $237.3

LRCX trades against a final fair-value range of $132.71-$237.30, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible Assets
    Intangible Assets
  • Switching Costs
    Switching Costs
  • Bull thesis
    Consensus target of $310.47 relies on ungrounded perpetual multiple expansion.

§2 Cenário pessimista

A severe stress test incorporating a 30% reduction to next-year consensus revenue and structurally lower terminal margins drops fair valueFair valueOur composite estimate of intrinsic per-share value, blended across DCF, exit-multiple, and reverse-DCF methods. Reported as a low/mid/high range to capture model uncertainty. toward the $130 level. This highlights the extreme fragility of the current high multiples assigned by the market, which completely ignore inherent downcycle risks.

Como esta tese pode falhar

Prolonged Memory Downturn

· Medium

Extended reduction in NAND and DRAM capex significantly depresses equipment sales and margins beyond modeled downcycle parameters.

FV impact
Downside to $132.71
Trigger
12-24 months

Severe Export Controls

Low-Medium· Low

Complete ban on trailing-edge and advanced equipment sales to China abruptly eliminates a major high-margin revenue vector.

FV impact
Downside below $100.00
Trigger
6-12 months

Advanced Packaging Share Loss

· Low

Competitors dominate next-generation advanced packaging and gate-all-around deposition transitions, permanently eroding Lam's market share.

FV impact
Downside to $150.00
Trigger
36-48 months
Sinais de alerta antecipado para monitorar
MétricaAtualLimite de gatilho
Deceleration in deferred revenue growth or service attach rates.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major memory customers aggressively cutting near-term capex guidance.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Ramp-up in export restriction rhetoric from the US government.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Margin compression signaling price competition in trailing-edge tools.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising inventory days signaling a severe industry downcycle.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Histórico financeiro

Demonstração de resultados — últimos seis períodos
ItemT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Período2022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
Receita$17.23B$17.43B$14.91B$18.44B+2.3%
Lucro bruto$7.87B$7.78B$7.05B$8.98B+4.5%
Lucro operacional$5.38B$5.22B$4.28B$5.90B+3.1%
Lucro líquido$4.61B$4.51B$3.83B$5.36B+5.2%
LPA (diluído)$3.28$3.32$2.90$4.15+8.2%
EBITDA$5.71B$5.64B$4.91B$6.52B+4.5%
P&D$1.60B$1.73B$1.90B$2.10B+9.3%
SG&A$885.7M$832.8M$868.2M$981.7M+3.5%

Pontuações de qualidade

Piotroski F-score
8 / 9
Composto de qualidade 0–9
Altman Z-score
23.45
Risco de falência (>3 seguro)
Beneish M-score
-2.36
Risco de manipulação de lucros
OCF / Lucro líquido
1.15×
>1 indica alta qualidade dos lucros
Limite de qualidade contábil
Pass
Limite ajustado ao setor
ROIC
33.8%
Retorno sobre o capital investido
Seção 3

Numbers analysis

Alocação de capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Assinantes individuais — a partir do §411 seções a mais

Leia a análise completa — 11 seções a mais.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Relatório completo para cada ticker coberto
24 meses de arquivo de classificações
Briefings da lista de acompanhamento + alertas de mudança de classificação
Exportação PDF + DOCX em qualquer idioma
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FAQ

LRCX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, LRCX looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $295 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $183 (range $133–$237), which implies roughly 37.8% downside to the midpoint.

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