Análise opcional do produto
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Accelerated international expansion across EMEA ($1,268.5M, 18.5% of revenue) and Asia Pacific ($704.0M, 10.3% of revenue), paired with expanding B2B custom flavor formulations, driving top-line growth and expanding valuation toward Potential value of $102.44.
Consumer segment annual revenue growth falls below negative 2.0% YoY.
We rate McCormick & Company a Buy. At the report-date price of $48.72 on September 18, 2026, the stock trades at an 18.2% discount to our Fair value of $57.60. Downside risk centers on customer concentration and private-label retail pushback at Walmart. However, proprietary flavor partnerships and category brand loyalty provide resilient cash generation to drive outperformance.36
The committee assigns a Buy rating, indicating that McCormick offers an attractive risk-adjusted return profile for long-term compounder and dividend-oriented investors.
On the analysis date of September 18, 2026, McCormick shares traded at $48.72, standing 15.4% below our house Fair value estimate of $57.60 and well below of $102.44.
The principal risk to this investment thesis is customer concentration and pricing pushback at Walmart, which generates 12.0% of consolidated revenue. If Walmart demands aggressive promotional allowances or favors private-label spices, Consumer segment revenue would contract below negative 2% YoY, compressing consolidated operating margins toward 13.5%.56
Conversely, the primary driver of upside is McCormick's dual-engine pricing power and proprietary formulation stickiness. The Consumer segment sustains a 37.9% gross margin via dominant shelf placement, while Flavor Solutions embeds co-developed recipes across multinational food makers. This combination generates $740.4M in free cash flow, supporting dividend growth and expanding value toward Potential value of $102.44.456
McCormick commands a 37.9% gross margin in retail seasonings, significantly exceeding packaged food peers and reflecting enduring consumer brand equity.5
Co-developed seasoning blends and technical integration across multinational food makers generate $2,890.0M in sticky institutional revenue.6
Operating cash flow of $962.2M converted 1.22 times net income in FY2025, delivering $740.4M in free cash flow to fund dividends and debt reduction.45
McCormick is rated Buy based on its durable pricing power in consumer spices and high switching costs in custom flavor formulations.
McCormick is a global leader in flavor. McCORMICK & COMPANY, INCORPORATED manufactures, market, and distribute spices, seasoning mixes, condiments, and other flavorful products to the entire food and beverage industry–retailers, food manufacturers, and foodservice businesses. McCORMICK & COMPANY, INCORPORATED manages its business in two operating segments, Consumer and Flavor Solutions, as described in Item 1 of this report. McCORMICK & COMPANY, INCORPORATED operates in two business segments: Consumer and Flavor Solutions. The Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments manufacture, market and distribute herbs, spices, seasoning mixes, condiments and other flavorful products throughout the world.
McCORMICK & COMPANY, INCORPORATED measures the performance of its business segments based on operating income, excluding special charges. See Note 15 of notes to its consolidated financial statements for additional information on its segment measures as well as for a reconciliation by segment of operating income, excluding special charges.
Under a simulated stress scenario where retail private-label substitution accelerates and commercial accounts dual-source flavor inputs, consolidated revenue growth slows to 1.75% annually. Operating margins contract from 15.65% toward 10.94% as promotional allowances rise and unabsorbed factory overhead accumulates. In this environment, free cash flow generation declines, reducing balance sheet deleveraging capacity against $4,933.5M of total debt and restraining annual dividend expansion.
The downside path models retail shelf space losses to private-label offerings and contract renegotiations from concentrated commercial customers. Disconfirmation of downside risk would occur if retail grocery scanner data shows branded market share gains across core spices over consecutive quarters.
Walmart represents 12.0% of revenue, and gross margins face promotional pressure from packaged food peers. If retail buyer negotiations push consumer growth below negative 2% annually, shelf space compression triggers brand concessions.6
Os cinco desenvolvimentos que enfraqueceriam a nossa tese de investimento.
Volume contraction signals private-label shelf encroachment and customer resistance to branded pricing at major retailers, impairing gross margin stability and core cash generation.
Atual:57.8% sales share in FY2025
Alerta seSustained decline below negative 2.0% YoY for two consecutive quarters
McCormick holds a narrow economic moat underpinned by brand loyalty in retail spices and customer switching costs in commercial flavor systems. In FY2025, consolidated gross margin reached 37.9%, significantly exceeding the packaged foods industry benchmark of 23.2% and peer levels at Campbell Soup (28.57%), Lamb Weston (20.68%), and Hormel Foods (15.74%). Operating income of $1,070.8M confirms pricing power and cost recovery across primary cooking categories.
Franchise durability is bounded by retail concentration, with Walmart accounting for 12.0% of revenue, and commercial exposure to PepsiCo at 12.0% of sales. Nevertheless, proprietary culinary recipes and category captaincy defend core shelf space, keeping advantages stable.
Return on invested capital of 8.86% exceeds the computed weighted average cost of capital of 6.92%, confirming positive economic profit generation across business cycles.1
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($57.60). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $899.6M after modeled capex of $175.0M, with terminal value at 65.6% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The base path expects steady compound growth driven by essential consumer seasoning demand and ongoing B2B flavor development partnerships. Disconfirmation would appear by mid-FY2027 if retail promotional pressure erodes shelf leadership or key retail partners demand pricing concessions.6
Accelerating volume growth across retail channels paired with robust pricing power would prove market share gains against store brands and warrant the highest rating band.
Consistent financial delivery validates the compounder thesis and supports retaining the house position.
Significant concessions to major retail partners or volume cancellations in Flavor Solutions would weaken cash generation and require a more defensive stance.
Reported earnings reflect high cash generation, with operating cash flow consistently outpacing net income, disciplined working capital management, and steady inventory turns that support long-term dividend distributions.5
McCormick generated $962.2M in operating cash flow during FY2025, converting 1.22x of net income into cash. Capital expenditures of $221.8M represented 3.24% of revenue, leaving free cash flow of $740.4M. This strong cash yield fully covered dividend distributions of $483.0M and enabled net debt reduction.45
Capital allocation prioritizes continuous dividend growth, supported by thirty-seven consecutive years of increases, alongside disciplined reinvestment in plant automation and selective debt retirement. Share repurchases remain modest at $34.8M in FY2025, preserving cash to manage $4,933.5M in total debt.
Return on invested capital reflects sustained operating profitability across brand seasonings and high customer retention in custom flavor formulations.
Latest ROIC of 8.86% comfortably exceeds the computed WACC of 6.92%, confirming positive economic value addition.
FY2025 operating cash flow reached $962.2M against net income of $789.4M, generating $740.4M in free cash flow after capex of $221.8M.
Self-funded cash generation provides ample liquidity to cover annual dividend payments of $483.0M while steadily paying down term obligations.
| Receita | US$ 6.840.300.000 |
|---|---|
| Custo das receitas | US$ 4.248.100.000 |
| Lucro bruto | US$ 2.592.200.000 |
| Despesas operacionais | US$ 1.521.400.000 |
| Lucro operacional | US$ 1.070.800.000 |
| Itens não operacionais e impostos | -US$ 281.400.000 |
| Lucro líquido | US$ 789.400.000 |
| Ativos totais | US$ 13.200.400.000 |
|---|---|
| Caixa | US$ 95.900.000 |
| Ativos circulantes | US$ 2.138.100.000 |
| Passivos totais | US$ 7.432.300.000 |
| Passivos circulantes | US$ 3.062.200.000 |
| Patrimônio líquido | US$ 5.768.100.000 |
| Lucro líquido | US$ 789.400.000 |
|---|---|
| Entrada operacional | US$ 1.066.900.000 |
| Depreciação e amortização | US$ 231.300.000 |
| Remuneração baseada em ações | US$ 46.200.000 |
| Fluxo de caixa operacional | US$ 962.200.000 |
| Saída operacional | US$ 104.700.000 |
| Caixa disponível | US$ 1.192.000.000 |
| Caixa inicial | US$ 186.100.000 |
| Efeito cambial | US$ 43.700.000 |
| Saída de investimentos | US$ 255.200.000 |
| Capex | US$ 221.800.000 |
| Outras atividades de investimento | US$ 33.400.000 |
| Saída de financiamentos | US$ 840.900.000 |
| Caixa final | US$ 95.900.000 |
| Fluxo de investimentos | -US$ 255.200.000 |
| Fluxo de financiamentos | -US$ 840.900.000 |
Fonte: SEC EDGAR · Protocolado 2026-01-22 · SEC EDGAR
| Receita por segmento operacional | Receita | Participação | a/a |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer | US$ 4 bi | 57,8% | 2,6% |
| Flavor Solutions | US$ 2,9 bi | 42,2% | 0,5% |
Fonte: SEC EDGAR · Protocolado 2026-01-22 · SEC EDGAR
| Receita por região | Receita | Participação | a/a |
|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | US$ 4,9 bi | 71,2% | 1,4% |
| Europe Middle East And Africa | US$ 1,3 bi | 18,5% | 2,4% |
| Asia Pacific | US$ 704 mi | 10,3% | 3,2% |
Dados financeiros pontuais utilizados na análise de 2026-09-20.
| Período | Receita | EBITDA | Lucro líquido | Fluxo de caixa operacional | Fluxo de caixa livre | Capex | Depreciação e amortização | Remuneração baseada em ações | Recompras de ações | Dividendos pagos | Emissão líquida de dívida | Fluxo de investimentos | Fluxo de financiamentos | Caixa inicial | Caixa final | Caixa e investimentos | Dívida total | Margem operacional | ROIC | WACC | Diferencial ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-30 | US$ 4,4 bi | US$ 753,9 mi | US$ 472,3 mi | US$ 658,1 mi | US$ 504,3 mi | US$ 153,8 mi | US$ 108,7 mi | US$ 25,6 mi | US$ 242,7 mi | US$ 217,8 mi | — | -US$ 267,1 mi | -US$ 371,5 mi | — | US$ 118,4 mi | US$ 20,8 mi | US$ 1,1 bi | 14,5% | — | 4,8% | — |
| 2017-11-30 | US$ 4,7 bi | US$ 815,7 mi | US$ 477,4 mi | US$ 815,3 mi | US$ 632,9 mi | US$ 182,4 mi | US$ 125,2 mi | US$ 23,9 mi | US$ 137,8 mi | US$ 237,6 mi | — | -US$ 4,5 bi | US$ 3,8 bi | US$ 118,4 mi | US$ 186,8 mi | US$ 78,9 mi | US$ 4,8 bi | 14,8% | — | 4,4% | — |
| 2018-11-30 | US$ 5,3 bi | US$ 1,1 bi | US$ 933,4 mi | US$ 821,2 mi | US$ 652,1 mi | US$ 169,1 mi | US$ 150,7 mi | US$ 25,6 mi | US$ 62,3 mi | US$ 273,4 mi | — | -US$ 158,5 mi | -US$ 751,1 mi | US$ 186,8 mi | US$ 96,6 mi | US$ 96,6 mi | US$ 4,1 bi | 16,8% | — | 4,9% | — |
| 2019-11-30 | US$ 5,3 bi | US$ 1,1 bi | US$ 702,7 mi | US$ 946,8 mi | US$ 773,1 mi | US$ 173,7 mi | US$ 158,8 mi | US$ 37,2 mi | US$ 95,1 mi | US$ 302,2 mi | — | -US$ 171 mi | -US$ 725,8 mi | US$ 96,6 mi | US$ 155,4 mi | US$ 155,4 mi | US$ 3,7 bi | 17,9% | — | 3,2% | — |
| 2020-11-30 | US$ 5,6 bi | US$ 1,2 bi | US$ 747,4 mi | US$ 1 bi | US$ 816 mi | US$ 225,3 mi | US$ 165 mi | US$ 46 mi | US$ 47,3 mi | US$ 330,1 mi | — | -US$ 1 bi | US$ 220,9 mi | US$ 155,4 mi | US$ 423,6 mi | US$ 423,6 mi | US$ 4 bi | 17,8% | — | 2,4% | — |
| 2021-11-30 | US$ 6,3 bi | US$ 1,2 bi | US$ 755,3 mi | US$ 828,3 mi | US$ 550,3 mi | US$ 278 mi | US$ 186,3 mi | US$ 66,6 mi | US$ 8,6 mi | US$ 363,3 mi | — | -US$ 908,6 mi | US$ 22 mi | US$ 423,6 mi | US$ 351,7 mi | US$ 351,7 mi | US$ 4,7 bi | 16,1% | — | 2,8% | — |
| 2022-11-30 | US$ 6,4 bi | US$ 1,2 bi | US$ 682 mi | US$ 651,5 mi | US$ 389,5 mi | US$ 262 mi | US$ 200,6 mi | US$ 60,3 mi | US$ 38,8 mi | US$ 396,7 mi | -US$ 73,7 mi | -US$ 146,4 mi | -US$ 487,2 mi | US$ 351,7 mi | US$ 334 mi | US$ 334 mi | US$ 3,9 bi | 13,6% | — | 5,4% | — |
| 2023-11-30 | US$ 6,7 bi | US$ 963 mi | US$ 680,6 mi | US$ 1,2 bi | US$ 973,4 mi | US$ 263,9 mi | US$ 199,3 mi | US$ 63,4 mi | US$ 35,7 mi | US$ 418,5 mi | -US$ 736,3 mi | -US$ 260,5 mi | -US$ 1,2 bi | US$ 334 mi | US$ 166,6 mi | US$ 166,6 mi | US$ 4,1 bi | 14,5% | — | 6,0% | — |
| 2024-11-30 | US$ 6,7 bi | US$ 1,3 bi | US$ 788,5 mi | US$ 921,9 mi | US$ 647 mi | US$ 274,9 mi | US$ 208,8 mi | US$ 47,4 mi | US$ 53,1 mi | US$ 451 mi | -US$ 94,5 mi | -US$ 269 mi | -US$ 583,1 mi | US$ 166,6 mi | US$ 186,1 mi | US$ 186,1 mi | US$ 3,9 bi | 15,8% | — | 6,0% | — |
| 2025-11-30 | US$ 6,8 bi | US$ 1,3 bi | US$ 789,4 mi | US$ 962,2 mi | US$ 740,4 mi | US$ 221,8 mi | US$ 231,3 mi | US$ 46,2 mi | US$ 34,8 mi | US$ 483 mi | -US$ 366,6 mi | -US$ 255,2 mi | -US$ 840,9 mi | US$ 186,1 mi | US$ 95,9 mi | US$ 95,9 mi | US$ 3,6 bi | 15,7% | — | 5,8% | — |
McCormick & Company Incorporated (MKC) trades at 14.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 12.4x. Its EV/EBITDA of 12.6x compares with a peer median of 9.1x. The comparison uses 4 peers: The J.M. Smucker Company, Hormel Foods Corporation, Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. and Campbell Soup Company, as of 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-20.
Packaged food industry capex-to-revenue stands at 2.3% and capex-to-depreciation is 1.34x. McCormick operates with FY2025 capex of $221.8M representing 3.24% of revenue and 0.96x depreciation.5
Culinary premiumization, rising demand for ethnic seasonings, and restaurant food service recovery expand demand for both packaged spices and custom flavor formulations across international regions.
Consumer grocery belt-tightening accelerates store-brand private label adoption, while packaged food conglomerates rationalise SKU counts and seek price concessions to defend their own margins.
McCormick occupies category leadership in consumer seasonings and essential co-development status in B2B flavor systems, positioning it well above commoditized food processing peers.
A 3-5% target weighting is appropriate for a mature dividend compounder, balancing high cash flow visibility and dividend yield against customer concentration risks at Walmart and PepsiCo.6
Limit total portfolio allocation to 5% to constrain exposure to packaged food channel concentration and private-label grocery promotional cycles.
Thirty-seven consecutive years of dividend increases backed by $740.4M in free cash flow and a 1.22x operating cash conversion ratio provide highly dependable capital return.45
An 8.86% ROIC exceeding the 6.92% cost of capital confirms durable economic value creation, with shares trading at a wide margin of safety to Potential value of $102.44.1
Essential recipe positioning and custom commercial flavor partnerships protect baseline cash flows against cyclical macro downturns.6
McCormick represents a high-quality consumer compounder trading at an 18.2% discount to our Fair value of $57.60 on the analysis date of September 18, 2026.3
Strong free cash flow of $740.4M supports a durable dividend payout and steady balance sheet deleveraging, while proprietary flavor formulations protect economic margins.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
McCormick carries $4,933.5M of total debt against $95.9M in cash and current liabilities of $3,062.2M. With pre-tax debt cost at 5.76% relative to baseline WACC of 6.92%, refinancing above 8.92% would severely erode equity value.135
PepsiCo accounts for 12.0% of revenue and Walmart accounts for 12.0%. Loss of custom formulation volume creates unabsorbed plant overhead, degrading consolidated operating margin toward historical levels of 13.60%.56
Margin erosion would indicate inability to pass through ingredient packaging inflation or severe price concessions demanded by retail channel partners, permanently lowering operating cash conversion.
Atual:37.9% in FY2025
Alerta seContraction below 36.5% over any rolling twelve-month period
Loss of custom seasoning formulations or customer dual-sourcing triggers unabsorbed factory fixed overhead across manufacturing plants, degrading B2B segment operating margins.
Atual:12.0% revenue share from PepsiCo in FY2025
Alerta seCustomer revenue contribution dropping below 9.0% without offsetting B2B volume additions
Stagnation across international culinary markets removes key geographic volume diversification, leaving consolidated revenue tethered to mature, low-growth North American retail grocery channels.
Atual:$1,268.5M EMEA and $704.0M APAC in FY2025
Alerta seAnnual constant-currency growth dropping below 0.0% in any fiscal year
Higher refinancing expense on $4,933.5M of total debt increases interest burden and drains free cash flow, constraining dividend growth and balance sheet flexibility.
Atual:5.76% as of 2026-09-20
Alerta seEffective borrowing cost exceeding 7.50% on debt refinancings
| Co-located technical development teams and proprietary recipe integration protect retention. |
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 65.6% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Value each distinct segment, subtract corporate overhead and net debt, add probability-weighted optionality, and divide by diluted shares.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 78.4% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
The bull path reflects accelerated geographic expansion across EMEA and Asia Pacific, accompanied by premium brand mix shift and faster food service volume recovery. Disconfirmation would emerge if international sales decelerate or custom flavor contracts fail to expand product lines by late FY2027.6
Reveals whether cost increases in raw spices and packaging can be passed to retail and commercial partners without sacrificing gross profit.5
Indicates customer switching costs and ongoing product co-development with global food manufacturers like PepsiCo.6
Diversifies top-line performance beyond the Americas and taps faster-growing culinary markets across Europe and Asia.6
Determines whether free cash flow sufficiently reduces total debt obligations to insulate earnings from higher refinancing rates.3
| $8.38B |
| $8.59B |
| $8.80B |
| Operating income | $1.24B | $1.28B | $1.31B | $1.34B | $1.38B |
| NOPAT | $992.13M | $1.03B | $1.05B | $1.08B | $1.11B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $992.13M | $1.03B | $1.05B | $1.08B | $1.11B |
| Revenue growth | 15.4% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Operating margin | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% |
| Tax rate | 19.7% | 19.7% | 19.7% | 19.7% | 19.7% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Consolidated gross profit of $2,592.2M on $6,840.3M revenue delivers a 37.9% gross margin, exceeding the 23.2% industry benchmark.
Strong brand equity buffers operating earnings against input commodity price volatility and preserves pricing power.
Total debt stands at $4,933.5M against cash of $95.9M and current liabilities of $3,062.2M.
Management must prioritize debt paydown over large share repurchases to insulate refinancing costs above the 5.76% pre-tax debt cost.
| Margem |
|---|
| MKC | McCormick & Company Incorporated | $13.1B | 14.2x | 1.8x | 12.6x | 24.7% | — |
| SJM | The J.M. Smucker Company | $13.1B | 11.3x | 1.4x | 8.8x | 3.9% | 17.9% |
| HRL | Hormel Foods Corporation | $11.5B | 13.4x | 0.9x | 10.6x | 4.3% | 8.6% |
| LW | Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. | $6.4B | 13.8x | 1.0x | 9.4x | 16.3% | 9.8% |
| CPB | Campbell Soup Company | $6.2B | 11.3x | 0.6x | 8.1x | 10.1% | 10.3% |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 7.5% | Cap position at initial tranche if refinancing expenses dilute free cash flow yield.1 |
