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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
NDAQ — frequently asked questions
Is Nasdaq, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, NDAQ looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 92,0 versus our fair value of USD 70,2; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 87,7. That implies roughly 23.7% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives NDAQ a fair value of USD 70,2 and a potential value of USD 87,7. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Nasdaq, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy NDAQ now?
Our latest published rating for NDAQ, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell. Nasdaq, Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 92,0 versus fair value of USD 70,2; potential value is USD 87,7. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for NDAQ?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-20 documents Nasdaq, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is NDAQ's rating?
Our latest published rating for NDAQ, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of USD 70,2, the potential value of USD 87,7, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 92,0).
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§1 Resumo executivoEN
Resposta em 30 segundosSell
Preço versus valor
Preço
$91.98
Valor justo
$70.15
Valor potencial
$87.67
Em
Data da cotação não registrada
Por que pode funcionar
Bull: Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime (Verafin) and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
O que mudaria nossa visão
Severe IPO Drought: A multi-year drought in capital markets activity suppresses high-margin listings and trading revenue far beyond the anticipated near-term contraction.
Nasdaq is a mature quality compounder with highly recurring revenues from listings and data, protected by strong network effects and regulatory barriers. A near-term revenue contraction driven by portfolio reshaping transitions into steady high-single-digit growth.
Nasdaq is a mature quality compounder with highly recurring revenues from listings and data, protected by strong network effects and regulatory barriers. A near-term revenue contraction driven by portfolio reshaping transitions into steady high-single-digit growth.
Network effects in core exchange
Network effects in core exchange listings
High switching costs in data
High switching costs in data and analytics software
Cycle upside
Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
Sell. The current valuation embeds aggressive implied growth expectations that ignore a near-term revenue contraction, leaving the risk/reward profile skewed to the downside despite robust fundamentals.
Visão geral da empresa
Nasdaq, Inc. operates as a technology company that serves capital markets and other industries in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Capital Access Platforms, Financial Technology, and Market Services. The company distributes historical and real-time market data; develops and licenses Nasdaq-branded indices and financial products; provides investor relations intelligence, governance solutions, and sustainability solution products for public and private companies, and organizations, as well as insights and workflow solutions; and operates listing platforms. It also offers Verafin, a cloud-based platform to detect, investigate, and report money laundering and financial frauds; AxiomSL, a risk data management and regulatory reporting solution; cloud-enabled and on-premises surveillance solutions to assist in complying with market rules, regulations, and internal market surveillance policies; Calypso, a platform providing cross-asset, front-to-back trading, treasury, risk, and collateral management solutions; and trade management and colocation services, as well as handles assets comprising cash equities, equity derivatives, currencies, various interest-bearing securities, commodities, energy products, and digital currencies. In addition, the company provides equity derivative trading and clearing, cash equity trading and fixed income, currency and commodities trading, and fixed income trading and clearing services, as well as tape plan data services; operates various exchanges, including derivatives, commodities, cash equity, debt, structured products, and exchange traded products; and offers clearing, settlement, and central depository services. The company was formerly known as The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. and changed its name to Nasdaq, Inc. in September 2015. Nasdaq, Inc. was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
§2 Cenário pessimistaEN
A prolonged capital markets weakness stifles IPOs and volume, while competition in data and technology products pressures pricing power. The market abruptly reprices the expected normalized multiple.
Persistent margin compression indicates elevated integration expenditures and higher structural operating costs following software acquisitions, eroding profitability benefits expected from SaaS business model transformation.
Atual:29.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alerta se< 25.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($73.18). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime (Verafin) and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
Warning level: < 25.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Persistent margin compression indicates elevated integration expenditures and higher structural operating costs following software acquisitions, eroding profitability benefits expected from SaaS business model transformation.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
Receita mais recente8,3 biCAGR da receita +9,9%
Margem operacional29,4%4 períodos fiscais
Fluxo de caixa livre mais recente2 biFY2025
Dívida líquida8,9 biFY2025
Detalhamento da demonstração de resultadosComo a escala do negócio se converte em lucro reportado.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Receita8,3 biCusto das receitas−4,8 biLucro bruto3,5 biDespesas operacionais−1,1 biLucro operacional2,4 biItens não operacionais e impostos−645 miLucro líquido1,8 bi
Dados do histórico financeiro
Receita
8.262.000.000
Custo das receitas
4.773.000.000
Lucro bruto
3.489.000.000
Despesas operacionais
1.056.000.000
Lucro operacional
2.433.000.000
Itens não operacionais e impostos
-645.000.000
Lucro líquido
1.788.000.000
Visão geral do balançoComo os ativos reportados são mantidos e financiados no período selecionado.
NDAQ trades at 20.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 23.4x; EV/EBITDA of 19.0x against a peer median of 21.5x; 6 peers.
§10 Setor e cicloEN
Fase do ciclo
Expansion
Normal capital cycle phase with disciplined capex; high OCF conversion funds aggressive share repurchases and strategic M&A.
Ciclo de alta
Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
Ciclo de baixa
Prolonged capital markets weakness stifles IPOs and volume, compressing high-margin transactional revenues.
Posicionamento
Normal capital cycle phase with disciplined capex; high OCF conversion funds aggressive share repurchases and strategic M&A.
§11 Gestão de posiçãoEN
Dimensionamento
Given the -23.7% downside to the $70.15 mid-point fair value and explicit execution risks in the Year 1 revenue transition, the position warrants an underweight or avoid stance until the valuation normalizes.
Risco
Trim existing positions into strength above $90, as reverse DCF implies flawless execution and 9.4% sustained growth is already priced in.
Tranches de entrada
Nível
Ação
Por quê
Current / pullbacks
Wait for a broader market pullback or post-reshaping earnings disruption to compress the multiple toward the low-$60s.
Wait for a broader market pullback or post-reshaping earnings disruption to compress the multiple toward the low-$60s.
Tranches de saída
Nível
Ação
Thesis break
Trim existing positions into strength above $90, as reverse DCF implies flawless execution and 9.4% sustained growth is already priced in.
§12 Perspectivas dos investidoresEN
Bull view
Buy
Upside case depends on the report valuation range and named growth catalysts.
Base view
Sell
While Nasdaq boasts a wide moat and highly predictable mature software/data segment revenue, the current $91.98 price is stretched versus base fundamentals. Reverse DCF reveals the market is pricing in flawless execution, ignoring the near-term restructuring drag.
§14 Recomendação finalEN
Ação
Vender
Sell. The composite explicitly incorporates execution risk, blending strict intrinsic cash generation with normalized forward multiples, yielding a $70.15 mid-point.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Strict regulatory intervention caps the pricing of proprietary market data feeds, structurally impairing a highly recurring revenue stream.
FV impact
-15%
Trigger
24-36 months
Listing Share Erosion
Low
Aggressive competition from rival exchanges structurally erodes Nasdaq's core listing market share, weakening its overarching network effects.
FV impact
-10%
Trigger
36+ months
Subdued top-line growth reveals persistent capital markets softness and sluggish expansion in financial technology solutions, dampening recurring subscription revenue momentum.
Atual:11.6% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alerta se< 5.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
03
Core Listing Market Share
Losing prominent listed corporate issuers damages premier exchange branding and impairs high-margin market data feed and trade execution volumes driven by index constituents.
Atual:Dominant corporate listing share maintained as of 2026-05-20
Alerta seLoss of > 5 headline Tier-1 corporate listings to rival exchanges within any fiscal year
04
Market Data Pricing Freedom
Imposition of price caps on proprietary data feeds would compromise high-margin recurring income, shrinking non-transactional cash flows that buffer trading volume cyclicality.
Atual:Unrestricted proprietary market data pricing as of 2026-05-20
Alerta se>= 1 regulatory fee cap or structural price control imposed on proprietary market data products by the SEC or ESMA within any fiscal year
Inadequate conversion of accounting profits into operating cash flow reveals adverse working capital expansion and limits debt deleveraging flexibility following major corporate acquisitions.
Atual:1.261 as of 2026-05-20
Alerta se< 1.00x on a trailing twelve-month basis
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
A near-term revenue contraction driven by portfolio reshaping transitions into steady high-single-digit growth, with margins reverting to 40%.
Por que importa
Warning level: < 5.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Subdued top-line growth reveals persistent capital markets softness and sluggish expansion in financial technology solutions, dampening recurring subscription revenue momentum.
03
Métrica:
Core Listing Market Share
AtualDominant corporate listing share maintained as of 2026-05-20
Por que importa
Warning level: Loss of > 5 headline Tier-1 corporate listings to rival exchanges within any fiscal year. Losing prominent listed corporate issuers damages premier exchange branding and impairs high-margin market data feed and trade execution volumes driven by index constituents.
04
Métrica:
Market Data Pricing Freedom
AtualUnrestricted proprietary market data pricing as of 2026-05-20
Por que importa
Warning level: >= 1 regulatory fee cap or structural price control imposed on proprietary market data products by the SEC or ESMA within any fiscal year. Imposition of price caps on proprietary data feeds would compromise high-margin recurring income, shrinking non-transactional cash flows that buffer trading volume cyclicality.
Warning level: < 1.00x on a trailing twelve-month basis. Inadequate conversion of accounting profits into operating cash flow reveals adverse working capital expansion and limits debt deleveraging flexibility following major corporate acquisitions.
