NOC trades against a final fair-value range of $486.28-$966.07, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $486, high $966, with mid-point at $726.
Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$726
Margin of safety
+23.1%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$558.30Price
Low $486.28
Mid $725.65
High $966.07
NOC trades against a final fair-value range of $486.28-$966.07, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Each scenario for NOC (NOC) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.
Probability weights start from a 25/50/25 default and are asymmetry-adjusted: when downside risk is elevated, base + bear gain weight; when visibility is high (long RPO, multi-year contracts), bull and base both gain.
Expected return is the probability-weighted average of the three scenario returns. The expected-value table reports the weighted price, weighted return, and asymmetry to help the reader compare risk-reward against the rating band.
When our composite fair value differs from private calibration references by more than 30%, the calibration-divergence diagnostic is run to identify which assumptions drive the gap; the result is summarised in the parent valuation surface.
FAQ
NOC — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, NOC looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $558 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $726 (range $486–$966), which implies roughly 30.0% upside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for NOC is $486–$966, with a midpoint of $726. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for NOC's archetype.
Our current rating for NOC is Strong Buy with a confidence score of 88/100. NOC is rated Strong Buy at $558.30 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $725.65, implying +29.97% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for NOC are: Severe Budget Sequestration; B-21 Cost Overruns; Commercial Space Disruption. The single biggest risk is Severe Budget Sequestration: A deeply divided Congress enforces strict defense budget caps, halting modernization of the nuclear triad and capping space spending.
Our current rating for NOC is Strong Buy, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($486–$966) versus the current price of $558.
NOC is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for NOC.
