Is AT&T Inc. overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-21, T looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 25,5 versus our fair value of USD 28,1; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 38,5. That implies roughly 10.4% upside to fair value at that date.

What is T's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-21, gives T a fair value of USD 28,1 and a potential value of USD 38,5. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for AT&T Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Our latest published rating for T, analyzed 2026-09-21, is Hold. AT&T Inc. looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of USD 25,5 versus fair value of USD 28,1; potential value is USD 38,5. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for T?

The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-21 documents AT&T Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.

Our latest published rating for T, analyzed 2026-09-21, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD 28,1, the potential value of USD 38,5, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 25,5).

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-09-21, AT&T Inc. is classified as a mature-dividend stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for T.

T stock analysis | StockMarketAgent.AI

StockMarketAgent researchAnalisado 2026-09-21

AT&T Inc.

Manter

Potencial de alta de 10,4% até o valor justo

Report-date price

US$ 25,45

Recorded 2026-09-21

Valor justo

US$ 28,10

Valor potencial

US$ 38,48

Limite superior da avaliação

Vantagem competitiva

Narrow6.5 / 10

Fonte em inglêsPT

Exibindo a fonte em inglês enquanto traduzimos

Este relatório ainda não foi traduzido. Atualize em alguns minutos assim que a fila de tradução recuperar o atraso.

§1 Resumo executivoEN

Resposta em 30 segundosHold

Preço versus valor

Preço: $25.45
Valor justo: $28.10
Valor potencial: $38.48
Em: 2026-09-21

Por que pode funcionar

Accelerating fiber broadband passings and converged mobile bundling that expands Advanced Connectivity revenue above 5% while lowering postpaid churn, unlocking multiple expansion toward Potential value of $38.48.

O que mudaria nossa visão

Intensified promotional discounting and device subsidies by wireless rivals and cable operators that push consolidated operating margin below 18.00%.

We rate AT&T a Hold. At the report-date price of $25.45 on 2026-09-21, the shares trade at a modest discount to our Fair value of $28.10, offering stable dividend income but limited capital appreciation.²

Our Hold rating indicates that existing investors should maintain their positions to capture dividend yield while new capital should wait for a wider margin of safety. AT&T is a mature telecommunications provider focused on steady cash flow rather than rapid business expansion.

§3 Vantagem competitivaEN

Narrow

AT&T maintains a narrow economic moat grounded in efficient scale across nationwide mobile spectrum and dense metropolitan fiber networks. These physical connectivity assets require prohibitive capital outlays to duplicate, creating durable structural advantages that insulate the core communications franchise.

Switching costs are reinforced through converged broadband and wireless offerings, where dual-product households exhibit lower churn and higher customer lifetime value. However, the moat is bounded as price competition from peers limits pricing power outside the fiber footprint.

Lucro econômico

Return on invested capital of 9.12% comfortably exceeds the 5.82% weighted average cost of capital, preserving positive economic profit across the decade.¹

6.5/ 10

Narrow

Sources of advantage

Efficient Scale and Network DensityAT&T operates nationwide wireless infrastructure and dense fiber passings that cannot be replicated economically by new entrants.Wide
High Customer Switching Costs via ConvergenceConverged broadband and mobile bundles deliver accretive lifetime value and significantly lower customer churn rates.Moderate

Ameaças conhecidas à vantagem competitiva
Ameaça	Gravidade	Cronograma	Mitigação
Aggressive Mobile and Broadband Bundling by Cable MVNOs	medium	12 to 24 months	Deploying symmetrical gigabit fiber broadband to offer superior network quality that cable hybrid architectures cannot match.³
Pure-Play Wireless Promotional Aggression

§5 Sensibilidade

Taxa de desconto

Crescimento terminal

	0.5%	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%
4.8%	$30.95	$31.89	$33.11	$34.76	$37.14
5.8%	$28.84	$29.41	$30.13	$31.03	$32.20
6.8%	$27.25	$27.64	$28.10	$28.66	$29.34
7.8%	$25.98	$26.26	$26.58	$26.95	$27.40
8.8%	$24.93	$25.14	$25.37	$25.63	$25.94

Linhas: taxa de desconto (Ke para lucros; WACC para fluxo de caixa). Colunas: crescimento terminal.

Variação de duração (anos)

None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.

Sensitivity reference

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($28.10). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Penhasco do FCF

A free-cash-flow drop test is not available in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.

§8 Histórico financeiro

Demonstração de resultados — últimos seis períodos
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$134.04B	$120.74B	$122.43B	$122.34B	$125.65B	-1.6%
Gross profit	$73.63B	$69.89B	$53.53B	$52.54B	$74.83B	+0.4%
Operating income	$25.90B	$-4.59B	$23.46B	$19.05B	$24.16B	-1.7%
Net income	$20.08B	$-8.52B	$14.40B	$10.95B	$21.95B	+2.3%
EPS (diluted)	$2.73	$-1.13	$1.97	$1.49	$3.04	+2.7%
EBITDA	$53.72B	$21.07B	$45.32B	$44.02B	$54.70B	+0.5%
R&D	$1.33B	$1.24B	$954.0M	$955.0M	—	-10.3%
SG&A	$29.67B	$28.96B	$28.87B	$28.41B	$28.94B	-0.6%

Previsão anual aceite
Métrica	FY2026	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029	FY2030
Revenue	$129.27B

Fluxo de caixa

Operating cash flow of $40,284M funded $20,842M in capital expenditures in FY2025, generating robust reported free cash flow of $19,442M. Free cash conversion remains strong, providing dependable organic cash flow to meet debt obligations and shareholder return programs.⁴

Alocação de capital

Capital returns in FY2025 included $8,180M in common dividends and $4,500M in share repurchases. Management plans total distributions of approximately $18,000M in FY2026, balancing debt reduction against share buybacks at favorable market valuations.

ROIC

Disciplined capital spending and debt retirement support returns on capital above the company's cost of financing.

Latest return on invested capital of 9.12% exceeds the computed cost of capital of 5.82%, confirming positive economic value generation.

Solid Free Cash Flow Coverage of Payouts

Free cash flow of $19,442M in FY2025 comfortably covers the $8,180M dividend commitment.

Dividend payments remain secure while leaving substantial surplus cash for debt de-leveraging and buybacks.

Balanced Capital Intensity

Capital expenditures of $20,842M matched depreciation of $20,886M in FY2025.

Network modernization is sustained without requiring elevated capital intensity that would compromise liquidity.

Ongoing Balance Sheet De-leveraging

Total debt stood at $134,718M at year-end FY2025 down from prior peaks.

Continued debt paydown insulates the equity against elevated benchmark interest rates.

Receita mais recenteUS$ 125,6 biCAGR da receita +13,9%

Margem operacional19,2%10 períodos fiscais

Fluxo de caixa livre mais recenteUS$ 19,4 biFY2025

Dívida líquidaUS$ 116,5 biFY2025

Detalhamento da demonstração de resultadosComo a escala do negócio se converte em lucro reportado.30 de jun. de 2026

StockMarketAgent.AI

Dados do histórico financeiro
Receita	US$ 31.558.000.000
Custo das receitas	US$ 12.047.000.000
Lucro bruto	US$ 19.511.000.000
Despesas operacionais	US$ 12.473.000.000
Lucro operacional	US$ 7.038.000.000
Itens não operacionais e impostos	-US$ 2.411.000.000
Lucro líquido	US$ 4.627.000.000

Visão geral do balançoComo os ativos reportados são mantidos e financiados no período selecionado.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Dados da composição do balanço
Ativos totais	US$ 420.198.000.000
Caixa	US$ 18.234.000.000
Ativos circulantes	US$ 48.732.000.000
Passivos totais	US$ 291.706.000.000
Passivos circulantes	US$ 53.780.000.000
Patrimônio líquido	US$ 126.491.000.000

Ponte do fluxo de caixaComo o fluxo de caixa operacional se tornou fluxo de caixa livre em FY2025.

StockMarketAgent.AI

US$ 40,3 bi − US$ 20,8 biFluxo de caixa livre US$ 19,4 bi

Dados da ponte do fluxo de caixa
Lucro líquido	US$ 21.953.000.000
Entrada operacional	US$ 42.839.000.000
Depreciação e amortização	US$ 20.886.000.000
Fluxo de caixa operacional	US$ 40.284.000.000
Saída operacional	US$ 2.555.000.000
Caixa disponível	US$ 43.690.000.000
Caixa inicial	US$ 3.406.000.000
Saída de investimentos	US$ 18.777.000.000
Saída de financiamentos	US$ 6.386.000.000
Emissão líquida de dívida	US$ 8.499.000.000
Recompras de ações	US$ 4.500.000.000
Dividendos pagos	US$ 8.180.000.000
Outras atividades de financiamento	US$ 2.205.000.000
Caixa final	US$ 18.527.000.000
Fluxo de investimentos	-US$ 18.777.000.000
Fluxo de financiamentos	-US$ 6.386.000.000

Receita por segmento operacionalParticipação na receita total de 2025-12-31.

Receita por segmento operacionalParticipação

CommunicationsUS$ 120,9 bi96,2%+2,8% a/a

Latin America BusinessUS$ 4,4 bi3,5%+3,5% a/a

Fonte: SEC EDGAR · Protocolado 2026-02-09 · SEC EDGAR

Dados da composição da receita: Receita por segmento operacional
Receita por segmento operacional	Receita	Participação	a/a
Communications	US$ 120,9 bi	96,2%	2,8%
Latin America Business	US$ 4,4 bi	3,5%	3,5%

Receita por regiãoParticipação na receita total de 2025-12-31.

Receita por regiãoParticipação

United StatesUS$ 120,2 bi95,7%+2,9% a/a

MexicoUS$ 4,4 bi3,5%+3,3% a/a

Asia PacificUS$ 395 mi0,3%−14,5% a/a

EuropeUS$ 382 mi0,3%−13,4% a/a

All Other Geographical AreasUS$ 114 mi0,1%−1,7% a/a

Region Of Latin America And CaribbeanUS$ 110 mi0,1%−26,2% a/a

Fonte: SEC EDGAR · Protocolado 2026-02-09 · SEC EDGAR

Dados da composição da receita: Receita por região
Receita por região	Receita	Participação	a/a
United States	US$ 120,2 bi	95,7%	2,9%
Mexico	US$ 4,4 bi	3,5%	3,3%
Asia Pacific	US$ 395 mi	0,3%	-14,5%
Europe	US$ 382 mi	0,3%	-13,4%
All Other Geographical Areas	US$ 114 mi	0,1%	-1,7%
Region Of Latin America And Caribbean	US$ 110 mi	0,1%	-26,2%

Receita e resultadosComo a escala do negócio se converte em lucro reportado.

Caixa e dívidaLiquidez disponível face ao endividamento total.

Geração de caixaFluxo de caixa operacional comparado com o fluxo de caixa livre.

RentabilidadeEvolução das margens bruta, operacional e líquida.

Dados financeiros pontuais utilizados na análise de 2026-09-21.

Dados do histórico financeiro
Período	Receita	EBITDA	Lucro líquido	Fluxo de caixa operacional	Fluxo de caixa livre	Capex	Depreciação e amortização	Remuneração baseada em ações	Recompras de ações	Dividendos pagos	Emissão líquida de dívida	Fluxo de investimentos	Fluxo de financiamentos	Caixa inicial	Caixa final	Caixa e investimentos	Dívida total	Margem operacional	ROIC	WACC	Diferencial ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31	US$ 39 bi	US$ 50,5 bi	US$ 5,1 bi	US$ 38,4 bi	US$ 16,9 bi	US$ 21,5 bi	US$ 25,8 bi	US$ 653 mi	US$ 512 mi	US$ 11,8 bi	—	-US$ 23,3 bi	-US$ 14,5 bi	—	US$ 5,9 bi	US$ 6 bi	US$ 123,5 bi	16,6%	—	4,2%	—
2017-12-31	US$ 160,5 bi	US$ 45,8 bi	US$ 29,5 bi	US$ 38 bi	US$ 17,4 bi	US$ 20,6 bi	US$ 24,4 bi	US$ 480 mi	US$ 463 mi	US$ 12 bi	—	-US$ 18,9 bi	US$ 25,9 bi	US$ 5,9 bi	US$ 50,9 bi	US$ 50,5 bi	US$ 164,3 bi	12,4%	—	4,1%	—
2018-12-31	US$ 170,8 bi	US$ 61,2 bi	US$ 19,4 bi	US$ 43,6 bi	US$ 22,4 bi	US$ 21,3 bi	US$ 28,4 bi	US$ 463 mi	US$ 609 mi	US$ 13,4 bi	—	-US$ 63,1 bi	-US$ 26 bi	US$ 50,9 bi	US$ 5,4 bi	US$ 5,2 bi	US$ 176,5 bi	15,3%	—	3,8%	—
2019-12-31	US$ 181,2 bi	US$ 55,1 bi	US$ 13,9 bi	US$ 48,7 bi	US$ 29 bi	US$ 19,6 bi	US$ 28,2 bi	US$ 6,3 bi	US$ 2,4 bi	US$ 14,9 bi	—	-US$ 16,7 bi	-US$ 25,1 bi	US$ 5,4 bi	US$ 12,3 bi	US$ 9,8 bi	US$ 161,1 bi	15,4%	—	3,5%	—
2020-12-31	US$ 143,1 bi	US$ 33,6 bi	-US$ 5,2 bi	US$ 43,1 bi	US$ 28,4 bi	US$ 14,7 bi	US$ 22,5 bi	US$ 21,3 bi	US$ 5,5 bi	US$ 15 bi	—	-US$ 13,5 bi	-US$ 32 bi	US$ 12,3 bi	US$ 9,9 bi	US$ 8 bi	US$ 155,2 bi	5,9%	—	6,6%	—
2021-12-31	US$ 134 bi	US$ 53,7 bi	US$ 20,1 bi	US$ 42 bi	US$ 26,4 bi	US$ 15,5 bi	US$ 17,9 bi	-US$ 2,6 bi	US$ 202 mi	US$ 15,1 bi	—	-US$ 32,1 bi	US$ 1,6 bi	US$ 9,9 bi	US$ 21,3 bi	US$ 20,3 bi	US$ 167,5 bi	19,3%	—	3,1%	—
2022-12-31	US$ 120,7 bi	US$ 21,1 bi	-US$ 8,5 bi	US$ 32 bi	US$ 12,4 bi	US$ 19,6 bi	US$ 18 bi	US$ 518 mi	US$ 890 mi	US$ 9,9 bi	-US$ 38,3 bi	-US$ 25,8 bi	-US$ 23,7 bi	US$ 21,3 bi	US$ 3,8 bi	US$ 3,7 bi	US$ 133,2 bi	-3,8%	—	—	—
2023-12-31	US$ 122,4 bi	US$ 45,3 bi	US$ 14,4 bi	US$ 38,3 bi	US$ 20,5 bi	US$ 17,9 bi	US$ 18,8 bi	US$ 479 mi	US$ 194 mi	US$ 8,1 bi	-US$ 1,1 bi	-US$ 19,7 bi	-US$ 15,6 bi	US$ 3,8 bi	US$ 6,8 bi	US$ 6,8 bi	US$ 133,4 bi	19,2%	—	5,1%	—
2024-12-31	US$ 122,3 bi	US$ 44 bi	US$ 10,9 bi	US$ 38,8 bi	US$ 18,5 bi	US$ 20,3 bi	US$ 20,6 bi	—	US$ 215 mi	US$ 8,2 bi	-US$ 12,3 bi	-US$ 17,5 bi	-US$ 24,7 bi	US$ 6,8 bi	US$ 3,4 bi	US$ 3,3 bi	US$ 122,1 bi	15,6%	—	6,0%	—
2025-12-31	US$ 125,6 bi	US$ 54,7 bi	US$ 22 bi	US$ 40,3 bi	US$ 19,4 bi	US$ 20,8 bi	US$ 20,9 bi	—	US$ 4,5 bi	US$ 8,2 bi	US$ 8,5 bi	-US$ 18,8 bi	-US$ 6,4 bi	US$ 3,4 bi	US$ 18,5 bi	US$ 18,2 bi	US$ 134,7 bi	19,2%	—	5,3%	—

§9 Comparação de avaliação com pares

AT&T Inc.T

Preço / valor justo

Valor justoUS$ 28,1Report-date priceUS$ 25,45

Data da avaliação21 de set. de 2026

Vantagem competitivaNarrow

Scorecard de investimento59 / 100

T-Mobile US, Inc.TMUS

Preço / valor justo

Valor justoUS$ 253,05Report-date priceUS$ 181,69

Data da avaliação09 de set. de 2026

Vantagem competitivaNone

Scorecard de investimento54 / 100

Verizon Communications Inc.VZ

Preço / valor justo

Valor justoUS$ 78,19Report-date priceUS$ 50,41

Data da avaliação09 de set. de 2026

Vantagem competitivaNone

Scorecard de investimento49 / 100

AT&T Inc.T

Preço / valor justo

Valor justoUS$ 28,1Report-date priceUS$ 25,45

Data da avaliação21 de set. de 2026

Vantagem competitivaNarrow

Scorecard de investimento59 / 100

Múltiplos de pares e rentabilidade
Ticker	Nome	Cap. mercado	P/E	P/S	EV/EBITDA	ROE

AT&T Inc. (T) trades at 10.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 10.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 7.6x compares with a peer median of 8.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: T-Mobile US Inc., Verizon Communications Inc., The Walt Disney Company and Comcast Corporation, as of 2026-09-21.

§10 Setor e cicloEN

Fase do ciclo

Contraction

Industry capital expenditure to depreciation stands at 1.05x with capex to revenue at 0.9%, indicating disciplined reinvestment following peak 5G outlays.

Ciclo de alta

Broadband demand growth, enterprise uptake of high-capacity connectivity for generative AI workloads, and rational industry promotional behavior expand average revenue per user.

Ciclo de baixa

Saturated wireless penetration, aggressive cable mobile discounting, and rising equipment subsidies compress industry margins and lengthen capital recovery cycles.

Tendências seculares
Tendência	Impacto	Nota
Fiber and 5G Fixed-Mobile Convergence	positive	Consumer demand for bundled gigabit fiber and mobile connectivity enhances customer stickiness and lifts consolidated household revenue.
Enterprise Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Traffic Growth	positive	Rising enterprise adoption of agentic AI drives increased demand for robust upstream network capacity and high-throughput fiber connectivity.
Legacy Wireline Voice and Data Decay	negative	Structural migration away from copper wireline services creates an ongoing top-line headwind that partially offsets broadband gains.

Posicionamento

AT&T holds a strong incumbent position in core domestic wireless and fiber broadband, prioritizing converged relationships and profitable market share over volume chasing.³

§11 Gestão de posiçãoEN

Dimensionamento

2-4%

Appropriate for income-focused portfolios seeking steady dividend yield and modest capital appreciation without excessive operational volatility.

Risco

Limit total portfolio allocation to 4% to manage sector concentration and monitor debt maturities against organic cash generation.

Tranches de entrada
Nível	Ação	Por quê
Below $25.00	Initiate or add to core income position	Provides an enhanced dividend yield and attractive margin of safety relative to Fair value.

Tranches de saída
Nível	Ação
$28.10	Trim position toward benchmark weight as Fair value is realized.
$38.48	Harvest full capital gains as valuation approaches Potential value.

Checkpoints trimestrais
Métrica	Limite	Ação
Communications Segment Revenue Growth	Sustained below 0% annually	Downgrade top-line expectations and reduce position size.
Consolidated Operating Margin	Falls below 18.0% in consecutive quarters

T	AT&T Inc.	$174.1B	10.0x	1.4x	7.6x	18.3%	—
TMUS	T-Mobile US Inc.	$177.3B	11.6x	1.9x	8.7x	18.0%	25.2%
VZ	Verizon Communications Inc.	$198.1B	9.0x	1.4x	7.7x	15.8%	23.0%
DIS	The Walt Disney Company	$180.0B	13.9x	1.8x	10.7x	8.0%	19.3%
CMCSA	Comcast Corporation	$81.4B	6.4x	0.7x	4.8x	11.5%	17.2%

Is AT&T Inc. overvalued?

What is T's fair value?

Should I buy T now?

What are the biggest risks for T?

What is T's rating?

What archetype is T?

AT&T Inc.

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Visão geral da empresa

Communications Segment Revenue

Narrow

Sources of advantage

Lenses that set Fair value

Forward Earnings

Fiber Broadband Net Additions

Postpaid Phone Churn Rate

Sources

Consolidated Operating Margin

Annual Capital Expenditure Intensity

Annual Free Cash Flow

Ten-Year Benchmark Refinancing Rate

Owner Earnings

Dividend Discount Model

Checks and reference points

Reverse DCF

Advanced Connectivity Service Revenue Growth

Capital Expenditures to Depreciation

Free Cash Flow Conversion