TMUS trades against a final fair-value range of $190.98-$286.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $191, high $287, with mid-point at $239.
Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$239
Margin of safety
+18.8%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10
Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.
$193.63Price
Low $190.98
Mid $238.55
High $286.83
TMUS trades against a final fair-value range of $190.98-$286.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Superior mid-band 5G spectrum portfolio
Superior mid-band 5G spectrum portfolio driving network leadership.
Cost advantage from scale following
Cost advantage from scale following successful Sprint integration.
Bull thesis
TMUS is no longer a hyper-growth disruptor, but a formidable cash flow machine.
§2 Cenário pessimista
A prolonged recession combined with aggressive cable MVNO pricing triggers a race to the bottom in postpaid ARPU, while FWA growth hits a hard capacity ceiling sooner than expected.
Como esta tese pode falhar
Cable MVNO Margin Squeeze
· Medium
CMCSA and CHTR aggressively cut converged mobile-broadband pricing, stalling TMUS subscriber growth and forcing margin-dilutive promotions.
FV impact
-25%
Trigger
12-24 months
FWA Capacity Saturation
· High
Fixed Wireless Access net additions decelerate sharply as network capacity limits are reached in profitable geographies, neutralizing a key growth vector.
FV impact
-15%
Trigger
24-36 months
Debt Service Squeeze
· Low
Higher-for-longer interest rates significantly increase the refinancing burden on the $122B debt load, impairing the massive buyback and dividend program.
FV impact
-20%
Trigger
36+ months
Sinais de alerta antecipado para monitorar
Métrica
Atual
Limite de gatilho
Consecutive quarters of declining postpaid phone net additions.
Our financial-history view of TMUS (TMUS) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.
The revenue trajectory is reported in the financial-history section with year-over-year growth rates. Direction and acceleration are summarised inline; the full table sits within the parent financials tab.
We track operating income alongside operating margin so the reader can separate top-line growth from operating leverage. The numbers analysis subsection flags one-offs, restructuring, and stock-based-compensation effects when material.
Net income is shown together with EPS so dilution and buybacks are visible alongside profit. Where reported net income diverges materially from operating cash flow, the discrepancy is called out in the numbers-analysis subsection.
FAQ
TMUS — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, TMUS looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $194 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $239 (range $191–$287), which implies roughly 23.2% upside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for TMUS is $191–$287, with a midpoint of $239. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for TMUS's archetype.
Our current rating for TMUS is Buy with a confidence score of 88/100. TMUS is rated Buy at $193.63 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $238.55, implying +23.20% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for TMUS are: Cable MVNO Margin Squeeze; FWA Capacity Saturation; Debt Service Squeeze. The single biggest risk is Bear risk is fully centered on the structural limits of industry pricing power and fixed wireless capacity.
Our current rating for TMUS is Buy, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 6.5/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($191–$287) versus the current price of $194.
TMUS is classified as a mature-dividend stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for TMUS.
