Is The Trade Desk, Inc. overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, TTD looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 21,2 versus our fair value of USD 26,9; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 38,3. That implies roughly 27.0% upside to fair value at that date.

What is TTD's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives TTD a fair value of USD 26,9 and a potential value of USD 38,3. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for The Trade Desk, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy TTD now?

Our latest published rating for TTD, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Buy. The Trade Desk, Inc. looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of USD 21,2 versus fair value of USD 26,9; potential value is USD 38,3. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for TTD?

The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-20 documents The Trade Desk, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.

What is TTD's rating?

Our latest published rating for TTD, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of USD 26,9, the potential value of USD 38,3, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 21,2).

What archetype is TTD?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-05-20, The Trade Desk, Inc. is classified as a growth infrastructure stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for TTD.

TTD stock analysis | StockMarketAgent.AI

StockMarketAgent researchAnalisado 2026-05-20

The Trade Desk, Inc.

TTD

Comprar

Potencial de alta de 27,0% até o valor justo

Report-date price

US$ 21,16

Data da cotação não registrada

Valor justo

US$ 26,88

Valor potencial

US$ 38,28

Limite superior da avaliação

Vantagem competitiva

Wide9 / 10

Fonte em inglêsPT

Exibindo a fonte em inglês enquanto traduzimos

Este relatório ainda não foi traduzido. Atualize em alguns minutos assim que a fila de tradução recuperar o atraso.

§1 Resumo executivoEN

Resposta em 30 segundosBuy

Preço versus valor

Preço: $21.16
Valor justo: $26.88
Valor potencial: $38.28
Em: Data da cotação não registrada

Por que pode funcionar

Risk: Cyclical sensitivity and extreme high beta require careful duration management.

O que mudaria nossa visão

Primary: Strong structural growth engine, heavily discounted by backward-looking WACC models but validated by forward EPS expectations.

The Trade Desk operates as the leading independent demand-side platform (DSP). It benefits from the structural shift toward programmatic advertising and Connected TV (CTV). Despite short-term ad market cyclicality, long-term secular tailwinds and high ROIC provide a strong moat.

Leading independent DSP scale and

Leading independent DSP scale and liquidity.

§3 Vantagem competitivaEN

Wide

Leading independent DSP scale and liquidity.

First-mover advantage in Connected TV (CTV) ecosystem.

High switching costs for agency trading desks.

Network effects from data scale and UID2.0 identity standard.

Lucro econômico

Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.

9/ 10

Wide

Sources of advantage

Leading independent DSP scale and liquidity.Leading independent DSP scale and liquidity.Wide
First-mover advantage in Connected TV (CTV) ecosystem.First-mover advantage in Connected TV (CTV) ecosystem.Wide
High switching costs for agency trading desks.High switching costs for agency trading desks.Wide
Network effects from data scale and UID2.0 identity standard.Network effects from data scale and UID2.0 identity standard.Wide

Ameaças conhecidas à vantagem competitiva
Ameaça	Gravidade	Cronograma	Mitigação
Walled garden policy shifts and data privacy tightening.	medium	Monitor	Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Emergence of competing independent SSP/DSP combinations.	medium	Monitor

§5 Sensibilidade

Taxa de desconto

Crescimento terminal

	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%
9.7%	$30.36	$32.46	$34.88	$37.68	$40.98
10.7%	$26.88	$28.52	$30.36	$32.46	$34.88
11.7%	$24.11	$25.42	$26.88	$28.52	$30.36
12.7%	$21.87	$22.93	$24.11	$25.42	$26.88
13.7%	$20.00	$20.89	$21.87	$22.93	$24.11

Linhas: taxa de desconto (Ke para lucros; WACC para fluxo de caixa). Colunas: crescimento terminal.

Variação de duração (anos)

Unavailable

Sensitivity reference

The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($26.88). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.

Penhasco do FCF

FCFF DCF remains positive at the base case: base FCFF $367.5M after capex $144.8M, with terminal value at 49.7% of enterprise value. No FCF cliff is projected unless capex/revenue or gross margin materially resets.

§8 Histórico financeiro

Demonstração de resultados — últimos seis períodos
Period	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$1.58B	$1.95B	$2.44B	$2.90B	+22.4%
Gross profit	$1.30B	$1.58B	$1.97B	$2.28B	+20.6%
Operating income	$113.7M	$200.5M	$427.2M	$589.3M	+73.1%
Net income	$53.4M	$178.9M	$393.1M	$443.3M	+102.5%
EPS (diluted)	$0.11	$0.36	$0.78	$0.90	+101.5%
EBITDA	$168.1M	$280.9M	$514.7M	$705.1M	+61.3%
R&D	$319.9M	$411.8M	$463.3M	$525.1M	+18.0%
SG&A	$863.1M	$968.2M	$1.08B	$1.16B	+10.4%

Fluxo de caixa

Alocação de capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Receita mais recente2,9 biCAGR da receita +22,4%

Margem operacional20,3%5 períodos fiscais

Fluxo de caixa livre mais recente783 miFY2025

Caixa líquido221,8 miFY2025

Detalhamento da demonstração de resultadosComo a escala do negócio se converte em lucro reportado.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Dados do histórico financeiro
Receita	2.896.284.000
Custo das receitas	619.067.000
Lucro bruto	2.277.217.000
Despesas operacionais	1.687.896.000
Lucro operacional	589.321.000
Itens não operacionais e impostos	-146.017.000
Lucro líquido	443.304.000

Visão geral do balançoComo os ativos reportados são mantidos e financiados no período selecionado.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Dados da composição do balanço
Ativos totais	6.153.220.000
Caixa	658.175.000
Ativos circulantes	5.261.004.000
Passivos totais	3.668.829.000
Passivos circulantes	3.265.997.000
Patrimônio líquido	2.484.391.000

Receita e resultadosComo a escala do negócio se converte em lucro reportado.

Caixa e dívidaLiquidez disponível face ao endividamento total.

Geração de caixaFluxo de caixa operacional comparado com o fluxo de caixa livre.

RentabilidadeEvolução das margens bruta, operacional e líquida.

Dados financeiros pontuais utilizados na análise de 2026-05-20.

Dados do histórico financeiro
Período	Receita	EBITDA	Lucro líquido	Fluxo de caixa operacional	Fluxo de caixa livre	Capex	Depreciação e amortização	Remuneração baseada em ações	Recompras de ações	Dividendos pagos	Emissão líquida de dívida	Fluxo de investimentos	Fluxo de financiamentos	Caixa inicial	Caixa final	Caixa e investimentos	Dívida total	Margem operacional	ROIC	WACC	Diferencial ROIC−WACC
2021-12-31	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022-12-31	1,6 bi	168,1 mi	53,4 mi	548,7 mi	456,8 mi	91,9 mi	54,4 mi	498,6 mi	0	—	0	—	—	—	—	1 bi	261 mi	7,2%	—	—	—
2023-12-31	1,9 bi	280,9 mi	178,9 mi	598,3 mi	543,3 mi	55 mi	80,4 mi	491,6 mi	646,6 mi	—	—	—	—	—	—	895,1 mi	235,9 mi	10,3%	—	—	—
2024-12-31	2,4 bi	514,7 mi	393,1 mi	739,5 mi	632,4 mi	107,1 mi	87,5 mi	494,7 mi	234,8 mi	—	—	—	—	—	—	1,4 bi	312,2 mi	17,5%	—	—	—
2025-12-31	2,9 bi	705,1 mi	443,3 mi	992,7 mi	783 mi	209,8 mi	115,8 mi	490,6 mi	1,4 bi	—	—	—	—	—	—	658,2 mi	436,3 mi	20,3%	—	—	—

§9 Comparação de avaliação com pares

The Trade Desk, Inc.TTD

Preço / valor justo

Valor justoUS$ 26,88Report-date priceUS$ 21,16

Data da avaliação20 de mai. de 2026

Vantagem competitivaWide

Scorecard de investimento70 / 100

AppLovin CorporationAPP

Preço / valor justo

Valor justoUS$ 270,62Report-date priceUS$ 266,13

Data da avaliação18 de out. de 2026

Vantagem competitivaNarrow

Scorecard de investimento77 / 100

NVIDIA CorporationNVDA

Preço / valor justo

Valor justoUS$ 374,88Report-date priceUS$ 222,27

Data da avaliação19 de set. de 2026

Vantagem competitivaWide

Scorecard de investimento84 / 100

The Trade Desk, Inc.TTD

Preço / valor justo

Valor justoUS$ 26,88Report-date priceUS$ 21,16

Data da avaliação20 de mai. de 2026

Vantagem competitivaWide

Scorecard de investimento70 / 100

Múltiplos de pares e rentabilidade
Ticker	Nome	Cap. mercado	P/E	P/S	EV/EBITDA	ROE

TTD trades at 9.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 22.5x; EV/EBITDA of 12.6x against a peer median of 28.9x; 6 peers.

§11 Gestão de posiçãoEN

Dimensionamento

High conviction but high beta (1.85) warrants moderate initial sizing. Algorithmic certainty sits at 75%.

Risco

Trim exposure if forward growth stalls, CTV share gains flatline, or if price pushes into the upper $38+ bull range.

Tranches de entrada
Nível	Ação	Por quê
Current / pullbacks	Accumulate aggressively on macro-driven cyclical pullbacks.	Accumulate aggressively on macro-driven cyclical pullbacks.

Tranches de saída
Nível	Ação
Thesis break	Trim exposure if forward growth stalls, CTV share gains flatline, or if price pushes into the upper $38+ bull range.

TTD	The Trade Desk Inc.	$9.9B	9.8x	3.4x	12.6x	—	—
APP	AppLovin Corporation		22.5x	26.8x	34.2x	266.4%	78.2%
OMC	Omnicom Group Inc.		5.9x	1.1x	9.2x	2.0%	11.9%
NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation		19.5x	24.9x	40.2x	101.5%	65.0%
GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.		26.8x	11.1x	28.9x	38.9%	36.1%
GOOG	Alphabet Inc. Class C		26.6x	11.0x	28.7x	38.9%	36.1%

Is The Trade Desk, Inc. overvalued?

What is TTD's fair value?

Should I buy TTD now?

What are the biggest risks for TTD?

What is TTD's rating?

What archetype is TTD?

The Trade Desk, Inc.

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Visão geral da empresa

Operating Profit Margin

Wide

Sources of advantage

Lenses that set Fair value

Multi-stage Moat Fade

Operating Profit Margin

Annual Revenue Growth

Gross Profit Margin

Return on Invested Capital

Operating Cash Flow Conversion Ratio

Forward Earnings

Cash flow DCF

Owner Earnings

PEG-adjusted Peer

Annual Revenue Growth

Gross Profit Margin

Return on Invested Capital

Operating Cash Flow Conversion Ratio