Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
ZS trades against a final fair-value range of $113.67-$226.95, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $114, high $227, with mid-point at $165.
Stock analysis

ZS Zscaler Inc. fair value $165–$227

ZS
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analisado: 2026-05-09Próxima atualização: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.4Archetype: Pre-profitNASDAQ · Information Technology
View archive
Preço
$152.13
▲ +12.60 (+8.28%)
Valor justo
$165
$165–$227
Classificação
Manter
confidence 76/100
Potencial de alta
+8.3%
upside to fair value
Margem de segurança
$140.02
buy below · 15%
Capitalização de mercado
$24.5B
P/E fwd 33.2
Fonte em inglêsPT
Exibindo a fonte em inglês enquanto traduzimos
Este relatório ainda não foi traduzido. Atualize em alguns minutos assim que a fila de tradução recuperar o atraso.

§1 Resumo executivo

  • Composite fair value $165 with high case $227.
  • Implied upside of 8.3% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 76/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.
Fair value
$165
Margin of safety
+7.6%
Confidence
76/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$152.13Price
FV $164.73
High $226.95

ZS trades against a final fair-value range of $113.67-$226.95, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating enterprise cloud migrations, perimeterless networks, and remote work permanence drive unabated best-of-breed Zero Trust adoption.

§2 Cenário pessimista

A prolonged macroeconomic downturn compressing enterprise IT budgets would severely test the premium valuation. If renewals stall and growth drops, the EV/Revenue multiple could collapse, exposing the lack of GAAP earnings support and heavy SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. dilutionDilutionThe increase in share count over time, typically driven by SBC vesting, equity issuance, or M&A in stock. Reduces existing shareholders' per-share claim on cash flows..

Como esta tese pode falhar

Platform Bundling Accelerates

· Medium

Mega-cap competitors successfully bundle Zero Trust solutions, driving severe pricing compression and halting new customer acquisition.

FV impact
Downside to $113.67
Trigger
12-24 months

Margin Expansion Failure

· High

Inability to scale SG&A and curb stock-based compensation permanently impairs GAAP operating margins, capping them below 20%.

FV impact
Downside to $125.00
Trigger
24-36 months

Growth Decelerates Abruptly

· Low

Macroeconomic headwinds and market saturation cause top-line growth to abruptly decelerate below 15% earlier than modeled.

FV impact
Downside to $110.00
Trigger
6-12 months
Sinais de alerta antecipado para monitorar
MétricaAtualLimite de gatilho
Calculated billings growth decelerating significantly faster than revenue.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Dollar-based net retention rate dropping below 115%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Stock-based compensation as a percentage of revenue increasing year-over-year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sales and marketing efficiency ratios deteriorating.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Increasing churn among large enterprise customers to bundled competitors.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Histórico financeiro

Demonstração de resultados — últimos seis períodos
ItemT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Período2022-07-312023-07-312024-07-312025-07-31Trend
Receita$1.09B$1.62B$2.17B$2.67B+34.8%
Lucro bruto$848.7M$1.25B$1.69B$2.05B+34.3%
Lucro operacional$-327.4M$-234.6M$-121.5M$-127.1M
Lucro líquido$-390.3M$-202.3M$-57.7M$-41.5M
LPA (diluído)$-2.77$-1.40$-0.39$-0.27
EBITDA$-277.6M$-109.2M$64.8M$108.1M
P&D$289.1M$350.8M$499.8M$672.5M+32.5%
SG&A$887.0M$1.14B$1.31B$1.51B+19.4%

Pontuações de qualidade

OCF / Lucro líquido
-23.45
>1 indica alta qualidade dos lucros
Limite de qualidade contábil
Fail
Limite ajustado ao setor
ROIC
-0.0%
Retorno sobre o capital investido
Seção 3

Numbers analysis

Alocação de capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Assinantes individuais — a partir do §411 seções a mais

Leia a análise completa — 11 seções a mais.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Relatório completo para cada ticker coberto
24 meses de arquivo de classificações
Briefings da lista de acompanhamento + alertas de mudança de classificação
Exportação PDF + DOCX em qualquer idioma
Iniciar teste grátis
Cancele a qualquer momento.
FAQ

ZS — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ZS looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $152 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $165 (range $114–$227), which implies roughly 8.3% upside to the midpoint.
Related coverage

Names readers of ZS also follow

Same archetype: pre-profit
Same sector: Information Technology