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ADI trades against a final fair-value range of $135.63-$284.54, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $136, high $285, with mid-point at $209.
Stock analysis

ADI ADI fair value $136–$285

ADI
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-08Следующее обновление: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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Цена
$416.52
▼ -207.71 (-49.87%)
Справедливая стоимость
$209
$136–$285
Рекомендация
Продавать
confidence 82/100
Потенциал роста
-49.9%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$177.49
MoS level · 15%
Капитализация
$203.3B
P/E fwd 31.7
Английский по умолчаниюRU
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§1 Краткое резюме

  • Composite fair value $209 with high case $285.
  • Implied downside of 49.9% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature dividend.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$209
Margin of safety
-99.5%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$416.52Price
Low $135.63
Mid $208.81
High $284.54

ADI trades against a final fair-value range of $135.63-$284.54, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Cycle upside
    Accelerated electrification and industrial automation drives short-term capacity bookings and premium pricing power.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

Under severe macro softness, ADI's automotive and industrial segments stall. Without the 27.1% Year 1 revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. rebound, operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA. works in reverse, compressing EBITEBITEBIT is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. margins below 30%. Terminal multipleTerminal multipleThe exit P/E or EV/EBITDA we apply to the final year of an explicit forecast. Anchored to the business's long-run quality and the prevailing risk-free rate. reverts to 14x, pushing fair valueFair valueOur composite estimate of intrinsic per-share value, blended across DCF, exit-multiple, and reverse-DCF methods. Reported as a low/mid/high range to capture model uncertainty. toward the $135 downside extreme.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

Cyclical Recovery Failure

· Medium

The anticipated 27.13% Year 1 cyclical revenue recovery completely fails to materialize, leaving capacity severely bloated.

FV impact
-35%
Trigger
12-18 months

Multiple Collapse

· High

Market pivots away from tech hyper-growth multiples, repricing ADI to its mature industrial 14x PE mean.

FV impact
-40%
Trigger
6-12 months

Margin Compression

· Low

Gross margins break below historical averages due to intense price wars and persistent inventory corrections in auto and industrial segments.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
18-24 months
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
Channel inventory levels persistently exceeding 120 days.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins compressing below the critical 30% threshold.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Year 1 forward revenue growth tracking materially below 27%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capital expenditures exceeding maintenance levels without corresponding top-line expansion.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow yield dropping below dividend payout requirements.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
СтатьяT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Период2022-10-312023-10-312024-10-312025-10-31Trend
Выручка$12.01B$12.31B$9.43B$11.02B-2.8%
Валовая прибыль$7.53B$7.88B$5.38B$6.77B-3.5%
Операционная прибыль$3.55B$3.98B$2.07B$3.00B-5.5%
Чистая прибыль$2.75B$3.31B$1.64B$2.27B-6.2%
EPS (разводнённая)$5.25$6.55$3.28$4.56-4.6%
EBITDA$5.60B$6.17B$4.20B$5.03B-3.5%
R&D$1.70B$1.66B$1.49B$1.77B+1.3%
SG&A$1.27B$1.27B$1.07B$1.26B-0.3%

Баллы качества

F-балл Пиотроски
8 / 9
Сводный балл качества 0–9
Z-балл Альтмана
9.28
Риск банкротства (>3 безопасно)
M-балл Бениша
-2.77
Риск манипуляций с прибылью
OCF / Чистая прибыль
2.12×
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Pass
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
5.6%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3

Numbers analysis

Денежный поток

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Распределение капитала

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Индивидуальные подписчики — с §4ещё 11 разделов

Прочитайте полный анализ — ещё 11 разделов.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

ADI — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ADI looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $417 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $209 (range $136–$285), which implies roughly 49.9% downside to the midpoint.
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