Необязательная аналитика продукта
С вашего разрешения мы используем ограниченную аналитику с защитой конфиденциальности, чтобы понять, какие исследовательские сценарии работают. Мы не используем рекламные трекеры или запись сеансов. Этот выбор можно изменить в настройках. Прочитайте Политику конфиденциальности.
International expansion in connected living scaling fee revenue beyond the $2,265.3M non-US baseline.
Severe hurricanes causing heavy property claims in lender-placed housing.
We rate Assurant Hold. Shares trade slightly above Fair value, leaving limited margin of safety against property catastrophe cycles.
The house rating is Hold. For investors, this means maintaining existing positions while waiting for a better price before adding capital.
The report was prepared at a price of $282.23 on September 18, 2026. This price stands 7.17% above our Fair value of $261.98 and below our Potential value of $382.31.3
The main risk is severe storm activity in lender-placed housing. Catastrophe claims would compress operating margins below 7.50% and reduce cash for share buybacks.
The main opportunity is Global Lifestyle device protection, which produced $9,940.0M of revenue in FY2025. Deep carrier partnerships generate sticky fee income, supporting free cash flow to compound per-share value toward Potential value.46
Embedded carrier integrations in Global Lifestyle generate predictable subscription-like revenue across 77.6% of the top line.6
FY2025 free cash flow of $1,598.4M exceeded net income of $872.7M, providing ample capital for buybacks and dividend growth.45
Diluted share count fell from 53,198,310 in FY2023 to 51,086,649 in FY2025, steadily enhancing long-term per-share value.5
Hold: Assurant is a resilient specialty insurer, but at $282.23 shares trade above our $261.98 Fair value, offering inadequate margin of safety against storm volatility.3
Assurant, Inc. is a premier global protection company that partners with the world’s leading brands to safeguard and service connected devices, homes and automobiles. Assurant, Inc. leverages data-driven technology solutions to provide exceptional customer experiences. Assurant, Inc. operates in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific through two operating segments: Global Lifestyle and Global Housing. Assurant, Inc. (the “Company”) is a premier global protection company that partners with the world’s leading brands to safeguard and service connected devices, homes and automobiles. The Company leverages data-driven technology solutions to provide exceptional customer experiences.
The Company operates in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific through two operating segments: Global Lifestyle and Global Housing. The composition of its reportable segments aligns with how the company views and manage its business. •Table Groupings: The groupings have homogeneous risk characteristics with similar development patterns and would generally be subject to similar trends and reflect its reportable segments.
Under a severe multi-storm catastrophe season combined with carrier fee renegotiations, operating margins drop to 6.55% and revenue growth stalls below 2.0%, impairing statutory dividend upstreaming to service holding company debt of $2,208.1M.
A downside path unfolds if multi-event severe convective storms trigger heavy reinsurance retention losses while lengthening consumer smartphone replacement cycles depress warranty fee additions.
In FY2022 operating margin fell to 4.50% during storm losses. Severe storms compress operating margins toward the 6.55% threshold.4
Пять событий, которые ослабят наш инвестиционный тезис.
A drop indicates that lender-placed storm losses or device repair inflation are outrunning rate filings, eroding specialty underwriting profitability and shrinking retained earnings available to compound tangible equity capital.
Текущее значение:9.34% for FY2025
Предупреждение, еслиFalls below 7.50% over trailing twelve months
Assurant holds a Narrow economic moat supported by switching costs in mobile device protection and specialized underwriting intangibles in lender-placed housing. Embedded carrier relationships make program displacement costly.
Underwriting licensing and tracking systems support returns above the 6.84% cost of capital. However, periodic catastrophe claims prevent a Wide moat designation.
Economic profit persists as return on equity of 18.34% exceeds the cost of equity of 7.22%.2
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($261.98). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $982.1M after modeled capex of $233.3M, with terminal value at 66.4% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Assurant achieves Fair value at $261.98 and target $261.98 (probability 55.0%%, return -7.2%% from $282.23), driven by steady mobile protection subscriber renewals and disciplined housing loss ratios.1
Revenue outperformance driven by faster international trade-in programs and benign weather loss experience expands operating leverage.
Steady fee collection across mobile protection programs balances normal seasonal storm claims.
Underwriting losses in lender-placed insurance or carrier contract attrition compress consolidated operating margins.
Operating cash conversion remains healthy, with operating cash flow substantially exceeding reported net income due to predictable upfront fee collections and disciplined claim provisioning.4
Free cash flow reached $1,598.4M in FY2025 on operating cash flow of $1,833.9M, representing $1.83 of free cash flow for every dollar of reported net income of $872.7M.45
Capital deployment prioritizes share repurchases and regular dividends, retiring shares from 53,198,310 in FY2023 to 51,086,649 in FY2025 while supporting total debt of $2,208.1M.
Return on equity of 18.34% and ROIC of 12.58% reflect disciplined underwriting and high-margin device protection fees.
ROIC of 12.58% comfortably exceeds the 6.84% cost of capital.
FY2025 free cash flow of $1,598.4M exceeded net income of $872.7M.
Asset-light warranty operations generate surplus capital for buybacks without external debt reliance.
Average diluted shares declined by 2.11M shares over two years through FY2025.
Persistent repurchases augment per-share earnings growth even during modest top-line expansion.
| Выручка | 10 187 600 000 $ |
|---|---|
| Себестоимость выручки | 2 201 600 000 $ |
| Валовая прибыль | 7 986 000 000 $ |
| Операционные расходы | 7 215 000 000 $ |
| Операционная прибыль | 771 000 000 $ |
| Внереализационные статьи и налоги | 590 800 000 $ |
| Чистая прибыль | 1 361 800 000 $ |
| Активы, всего | 36 289 600 000 $ |
|---|---|
| Денежные средства | 1 834 100 000 $ |
| Обязательства, всего | 30 418 000 000 $ |
| Акционерный капитал | 5 871 600 000 $ |
| Чистая прибыль | 872 700 000 $ |
|---|---|
| Операционный приток | 1 833 900 000 $ |
| Амортизация | 250 000 000 $ |
| Компенсация акциями | 85 700 000 $ |
| Прочие операционные корректировки | 625 500 000 $ |
| Операционный денежный поток | 1 833 900 000 $ |
| Доступные денежные средства | 3 656 100 000 $ |
| Денежные средства на начало | 1 807 700 000 $ |
| Влияние обменного курса | 14 500 000 $ |
| Инвестиционный отток | 1 457 800 000 $ |
| Capex | 235 500 000 $ |
| Прочая инвестиционная деятельность | 1 222 300 000 $ |
| Финансовый отток | 364 200 000 $ |
| Чистое привлечение долга | 121 700 000 $ |
| Выкуп акций | 303 700 000 $ |
| Выплаченные дивиденды | 168 400 000 $ |
| Прочая финансовая деятельность | 13 800 000 $ |
| Денежные средства на конец | 1 834 100 000 $ |
| Инвестиционный денежный поток | -1 457 800 000 $ |
| Финансовый денежный поток | -364 200 000 $ |
Источник: SEC EDGAR · Подано 2026-02-19 · SEC EDGAR
| Выручка по операционным сегментам | Выручка | Доля | г/г |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Lifestyle | 9,9 млрд $ | 77,6 % | 6,6 % |
| Global Housing | 2,9 млрд $ | 22,7 % | 12,6 % |
Источник: SEC EDGAR · Подано 2026-02-19 · SEC EDGAR
| Выручка по регионам | Выручка | Доля | г/г |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 10,5 млрд $ | 82,3 % | 7,5 % |
| Non Us | 2,3 млрд $ | 17,7 % | 9,9 % |
Финансовые данные на конкретную дату, использованные в анализе от 2026-09-20.
| Период | Выручка | EBITDA | Чистая прибыль | Операционный денежный поток | Свободный денежный поток | Capex | Амортизация | Компенсация акциями | Выкуп акций | Выплаченные дивиденды | Чистое привлечение долга | Инвестиционный денежный поток | Финансовый денежный поток | Денежные средства на начало | Денежные средства на конец | Денежные средства и инвестиции | Общий долг | Операционная маржа | ROIC | WACC | Спред ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | 7,5 млрд $ | 637 млн $ | 565,4 млн $ | 108,6 млн $ | 23,4 млн $ | 85,2 млн $ | 125,1 млн $ | 41,6 млн $ | 863,1 млн $ | 125,3 млн $ | — | 725,6 млн $ | -1,1 млрд $ | — | 1 млрд $ | 1 млрд $ | — | 11,3 % | — | — | — |
| 2017-12-31 | 6,4 млрд $ | 506 млн $ | 519,6 млн $ | 530,4 млн $ | 468,3 млн $ | 62,1 млн $ | 115,7 млн $ | 35,5 млн $ | 388,9 млн $ | 119 млн $ | — | -541,2 млн $ | -26,7 млн $ | 1 млрд $ | 996,8 млн $ | 996,8 млн $ | 1,1 млрд $ | 6,9 % | — | — | — |
| 2018-12-31 | 8,1 млрд $ | 504 млн $ | 251 млн $ | 656,7 млн $ | 573,9 млн $ | 82,8 млн $ | 126,9 млн $ | 57,1 млн $ | 139,3 млн $ | 133,8 млн $ | — | -2,2 млрд $ | 1,8 млрд $ | 996,8 млн $ | 1,3 млрд $ | 1,6 млрд $ | 2 млрд $ | 4,1 % | — | — | — |
| 2019-12-31 | 9,6 млрд $ | 854 млн $ | 382,6 млн $ | 1,4 млрд $ | 1,3 млрд $ | 110,3 млн $ | 125,8 млн $ | 55,9 млн $ | 271,8 млн $ | 151,4 млн $ | — | -619,8 млн $ | -179,2 млн $ | 1,3 млрд $ | 1,9 млрд $ | 2,3 млрд $ | 2 млрд $ | 6,5 % | — | — | — |
| 2020-12-31 | 9,6 млрд $ | 825 млн $ | 440,8 млн $ | 1,3 млрд $ | 1,2 млрд $ | 121,2 млн $ | 144,3 млн $ | 57,9 млн $ | 297 млн $ | 154,6 млн $ | — | -735,2 млн $ | -264,8 млн $ | 1,9 млрд $ | 2,2 млрд $ | 2,2 млрд $ | — | 6,0 % | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-31 | 10,2 млрд $ | 1,1 млрд $ | 1,4 млрд $ | 781,7 млн $ | 594,3 млн $ | 187,4 млн $ | 171,6 млн $ | 66,7 млн $ | 839,3 млн $ | 157,6 млн $ | — | 157,6 млн $ | -1,1 млрд $ | 2,2 млрд $ | 2 млрд $ | 2 млрд $ | — | 7,6 % | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-31 | 10,2 млрд $ | 640 млн $ | 276,6 млн $ | 596,9 млн $ | 410,6 млн $ | 186,3 млн $ | 182 млн $ | 62,6 млн $ | 572,8 млн $ | 150,2 млн $ | -75,9 млн $ | -262,1 млн $ | -818,4 млн $ | 2,1 млрд $ | 1,5 млрд $ | 8 млрд $ | 2,1 млрд $ | 4,5 % | — | 6,0 % | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 11,1 млрд $ | 1,1 млрд $ | 642,5 млн $ | 1,1 млрд $ | 935,6 млн $ | 202,5 млн $ | 196,4 млн $ | 75,1 млн $ | 193,1 млн $ | 152,3 млн $ | -51,8 млн $ | -637,7 млн $ | -403,9 млн $ | 1,5 млрд $ | 1,6 млрд $ | 3,7 млрд $ | 2,1 млрд $ | 8,2 % | — | 6,0 % | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 11,9 млрд $ | 1,3 млрд $ | 760,2 млн $ | 1,3 млрд $ | 1,1 млрд $ | 221,3 млн $ | 223,5 млн $ | 81,1 млн $ | 307,4 млн $ | 155,9 млн $ | 0 $ | -657,8 млн $ | -477,5 млн $ | 1,6 млрд $ | 1,8 млрд $ | 9,3 млрд $ | 2,1 млрд $ | 8,7 % | — | 6,9 % | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 12,8 млрд $ | 1,4 млрд $ | 872,7 млн $ | 1,8 млрд $ | 1,6 млрд $ | 235,5 млн $ | 250 млн $ | 85,7 млн $ | 303,7 млн $ | 168,4 млн $ | 121,7 млн $ | -1,5 млрд $ | -364,2 млн $ | 1,8 млрд $ | 1,8 млрд $ | 4,6 млрд $ | 2,2 млрд $ | 9,3 % | — | 6,4 % | — |
Assurant Inc. (AIZ) trades at 12.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 17.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 8.1x compares with a peer median of 10.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Loews Corporation, W. R. Berkley Corporation, SoFi Technologies, Inc. and Chubb Limited, as of 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-20.
Industry capital expenditures stand at 0.37x depreciation with low capex-to-revenue, while broader capacity data remains evidence-limited.
Expanding consumer device trade-ins and rising insurance premium rates lift underwriting margins and service fee volumes.
Severe multi-storm seasons elevate loss ratios while lengthening smartphone replacement cycles depress warranty attachment.
Assurant holds leading market share in carrier-embedded mobile protection and lender-placed property insurance, insulated by multi-year partnership integration.6
Maintain existing portfolio weighting given that report-date price of $282.23 trades slightly above Fair value of $261.98, offering limited margin of safety.
Cap position at 3.0% of portfolio assets to limit exposure to single-season hurricane loss severity and mobile carrier contract renewals.
At $282.23, shares trade above our $261.98 Fair value, offering minimal margin of safety against storm losses.3
The $3.52 dividend is supported by $1,598.4M free cash flow, but capital upside is limited.4
Sticky carrier partnerships defend fee revenue, but longer device replacement cycles suggest waiting for entry dips.6
Assurant is a resilient specialty insurer, but at $282.23 shares trade 7.17% above our Fair value of $261.98, warranting a Hold rating.3
Investors should maintain current allocations and defer new buys until pullbacks toward $235.00 provide adequate margin of safety.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Global Lifestyle accounts for $9,940.0M of $12,814.3M revenue. Carrier fee concessions lower annual top-line growth below 2.0%.56
Sustained property volatility causes forward valuation multiples to contract from 12.04x toward peer Chubb at 11.70x.3
Sluggish top-line expansion signals carrier partner fee concessions or lengthened smartphone replacement cycles, which diminishes high-margin protection fee generation across connected living and undermines consolidated operating leverage.
Текущее значение:$9,940.0M for FY2025
Предупреждение, еслиSlows below 2.0% annual growth over next 24 months
Contracting international volume proves that global mobile protection adoption has stalled, halting geographic diversification and leaving overall earnings fully exposed to domestic weather catastrophe volatility and carrier client concentration.
Текущее значение:$2,265.3M for FY2025
Предупреждение, еслиYear-over-year contraction below 0% across two consecutive quarters
Sharp operating cash compression reveals adverse claim settlements or uncollected premiums, restricting holding company liquidity, forcing curtailment of share repurchases, and tightening capital flexibility across regulated underwriting subsidiaries.
Текущее значение:$1,598.4M for FY2025
Предупреждение, еслиDrops below $800.0M over trailing twelve months
Share count expansion indicates that capital returns have ceased due to insurance subsidiary dividend blocks following catastrophe losses, halting per-share compounding and diluting ownership across specialty protection operations.
Текущее значение:51,086,649 shares for FY2025
Предупреждение, еслиIncreases above 52,000,000 shares over next 12 months
| 12 months |
| Comprehensive reinsurance treaties and regular regulatory rate filings.6 |
Use book value per share with normalized ROE, cost of equity, and terminal growth to derive a justified price-to-book value.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 80.4% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Potential value reaches $382.31 and target $382.31 (probability 20.0%%, return 35.5%%), as accelerated international carrier expansion and benign storm seasons expand operating margins above consensus expectations.6
Underwriting discipline preserves consolidated operating income against weather catastrophe volatility.4
| $14.94B |
| $15.31B |
| $15.69B |
| Operating income | $1.29B | $1.36B | $1.39B | $1.43B | $1.47B |
| NOPAT | $1.04B | $1.10B | $1.13B | $1.15B | $1.18B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $1.04B | $1.10B | $1.13B | $1.15B | $1.18B |
| Revenue growth | 8.1% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% |
| Tax rate | 19.4% | 19.4% | 19.4% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Маржа |
|---|
| AIZ | Assurant Inc. | $13.9B | 12.0x | 1.0x | 8.1x | 18.3% | — |
| L | Loews Corporation | $22.0B | 37.2x | 1.2x | 7.9x | 9.3% | 14.5% |
| WRB | W. R. Berkley Corporation | $26.0B | 14.5x | 1.7x | 10.2x | 20.2% | 16.4% |
| SOFI | SoFi Technologies, Inc. | $21.9B | 20.5x | 5.1x | 7.1% | 17.0% | |
| CB | Chubb Limited | $131.4B | 11.7x | 2.1x | 10.3x | 14.8% | 23.5% |
| Re-underwrite fee growth assumptions and trim position6 |
