Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)

NASDAQ: AXON · USD

$423

-2.38 (-0.6%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-03

Our latest published analysis: AXON rated Sell

Axon Enterprise Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$219 / share

Potential value

$345 / share

Upside to FV

-47.0%

from $423

Moat

7.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$33.6B
Revenue (ttm)	3.2B
Net income (ttm)	199.3M
EPS (ttm)	$2.40
Shares out	81.2M
P/E (trailing)	176.1x
P/E (forward)	58.1x
Volume	593,839
Beta	1.44

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 3.2B
Net income (ttm): 199.3M
EPS (ttm): $2.40
P/E (trailing): 176.1x
P/E (forward): 58.1x
Market cap: $33.6B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$863.4M	$1.19B	$1.56B	$2.08B	$2.78B	+33.9%
Gross profit	$540.9M	$726.1M	$955.5M	$1.24B	$1.66B	+32.3%
Operating income	$-168.1M	$93.0M	$156.9M	$58.5M	$-62.1M	—
Net income	$-60.0M	$146.9M	$175.8M	$377.0M	$124.7M	—
EPS (diluted)	$-0.91	$2.03	$2.33	$4.80	$1.51	—
EBITDA	$-117.1M	$227.6M	$183.4M	$437.0M	$196.4M	—
R&D	$194.0M	$233.8M	$303.7M	$441.6M	$684.3M	+37.0%
SG&A	$515.0M	$399.3M	$494.9M	$741.2M	$1.04B	+19.1%

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Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$219.27

-47.0% from spot

The Base case reflects the house forecast schedule where top-line expansion tracks consensus expectations through FY2026 and FY2027. Operating margins expand steadily from the FY2025 operating loss through FY2030 as Software and Sensors continues to outpace Connected Devices. Stock-based compensation expense is absorbed via modeled share count expansion, supporting the Base path target of $219.27.

Revenue grows in line with modeled projections through FY2026 and FY2027, transitioning to mature double-digit growth by FY2030.
Operating margin recovers from the FY2025 operating loss to positive territory in FY2026 and expands steadily through FY2030.
Reinvestment rate steps down steadily through FY2030, supporting full-year free cash flow delivery consistent with management guidance.
Diluted shares expand through FY2030 as stock-based compensation awards vest and dilute share count.
Terminal valuation multiples reflect premium public safety software characteristics, discounted at the estimated cost of capital.

Bull20%

Price target

$345.49

-16.4% from spot

Under the Bull scenario, Axon accelerates adoption across federal agencies and international law enforcement jurisdictions, expanding non-US revenue as a share of consolidated sales. Accelerated attach of Evidence.com add-on modules, including automated draft reporting and real-time operations, lifts Software and Sensors revenue to become the primary driver of top-line scale. Gross margins expand as cloud software mix increases, while operating leverage drives operating margins higher. Free cash flow conversion expands rapidly as capital expenditures normalize, supporting robust earnings compounding toward the Bull path target of $345.49.

Revenue expansion accelerates significantly through FY2030, driven by rapid international market adoption and federal agency contracts.
Software and Sensors expands to represent the majority of net sales, elevating corporate gross margins substantially.
Operating margins expand significantly as manufacturing tooling capital expenditures moderate as a proportion of revenue.
Diluted share growth moderates substantially on an annualized basis as cash flow covers incentive compensation.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($219.27). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%	4.5%
9.4%	$246	$254	$263	$273	$286
9.9%	$235	$241	$249	$258	$268
10.4%	$223	$228	$219	$242	$251
10.9%	$216	$221	$226	$232	$240
11.4%	$208	$212	$217	$222	$228

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E58.1

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E175.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE6.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC1.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All AXON indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

267

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 267 of 267 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001069183
Company name	Axon Enterprise, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	05464C101
Earnings date	2026-11-05
Earnings time	amc
Employees	5,100
Employees change	1,000
Employees growth	24.39%
Enterprise value	$35.6B
Exchange	NASDAQ
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1993
In index	SP500, NASDAQ100
Industry	Aerospace & Defense
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US05464C1018
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-25
Last earnings date	2026-08-05
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2004-11-30
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$34.4B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-11-05
Options	Yes
Price	$423.49
Price currency	USD
Sector	Industrials
SIC code	3480
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	AXON
Tags	virtual-reality
U.S. state	Arizona
Website	https://www.axon.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	62.19x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	293.38x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	157.48x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	143.86x
Earnings yield	0.57%
EV/Earnings	176.31x
EV/EBIT	630.51x
EV/EBITDA	212.83x
EV/FCF	263.82x
EV/Sales	10.92x
FCF / EV yield	0.38%
FCF yield	0.39%
Forward EV/Sales	8.33x
Forward P/E	47.45x
Forward P/S	8.06x
Graham number	49.46811
Graham upside	-88.17%
Industry forward P/E	38.61x
Industry P/E	78.67x
Lynch fair value	$60.11
Lynch upside	-85.63%
P/B ratio	9.42x
P/E ratio	176.13x
P/FCF ratio	255.13x
P/OCF ratio	127.84x
P/S ratio	10.56x
PEG ratio	1.77x
Price / tangible book value	22.74x
Price/EBITDA ratio	205.81x
Sector forward P/E	26.03x
Sector P/E	40.37x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	1.73%
EBITDA margin	5.13%
FCF margin	4.14%
Gross margin	59.53%
Operating margin	1.73%
Pretax margin	5.67%
Profit margin	6.19%
Profit per employee	$39,078
Profitable quarters	3
Profitable years	4
Revenue per employee	$631,196
ROA	0.51%
ROA (5Y)	-0.11%
ROCE	0.92%
ROE	6.22%
ROE (5Y)	8.51%
ROIC	1.18%
ROIC (5Y)	-0.95%
SBC / revenue	19.68%
Tax / revenue	-0.53%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	-40.53%
EPS growth (Q)	-18.18%
EPS growth (QoQ)	-82.44%
EPS growth 10Y	25.41%
EPS growth 3Y	21.35%
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	-24.53%
FCF growth 3Y	6.34%
FCF growth 5Y	20.95%
Gross profit growth	32.26%
Gross profit growth (Q)	35.1%
Gross profit growth 3Y	31.89%
Gross profit growth 5Y	30.78%
Net income growth	-38.92%
Net income growth (Q)	-18.52%
Net income growth (QoQ)	-82.62%
Net income growth 3Y	26.32%
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	-3.55%
OCF growth 10Y	19.22%
OCF growth 3Y	18.84%
OCF growth 5Y	13.59%
Operating income growth 3Y	-20.64%
Revenue growth	34.6%
Revenue growth (Q)	35.28%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	12.02%
Revenue growth 10Y	30.74%
Revenue growth 3Y	33.09%
Revenue growth 5Y	31.9%
Revenue growth quarters	18
Revenue growth years	15

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-132.6M
Depreciation and amortization	$109.4M
EBIT	$55.7M
EBITDA	$165.1M
EPS	$2.40
FCF per share	$1.64
Financing cash flow	$-179M
Free cash flow	$133.2M
Free cash flow minus SBC	$-500.3M
Gross profit	$1.9B
Income taxes	$-16.9M
Investing cash flow	$-101.9M
Net borrowing	$-282.5M
Net cash flow	$-17.8M
Net income	$199.3M
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$-367.6M
Operating income	$55.7M
Revenue	$3.2B
Stock-based compensation	$633.4M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	8.18
Book value per share	$45.23
Debt / EBITDA	9.81
Debt / equity	0.5
Debt / FCF	13.89
Goodwill	$1.9B
Interest coverage	0.49
Long-term assets	$4.5B
Long-term liabilities	$2.4B
Net cash (debt)	$-1.2B
Net cash / market cap	-3.41%
Net debt / EBITDA	7.01
Net debt / equity	0.32
Net debt / FCF	8.69
Piotroski F-Score	4
Property, plant and equipment	$341.5M
Shareholders' equity	$3.7B
Tangible book value	$1.5B
Tangible book value per share	$18.39
Total assets	$7.5B
Total cash	$692.5M
Total debt	$1.9B
Total liabilities	$3.8B
WACC	11.79%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.47
Current assets	$3B
Current liabilities	$1.4B
Current ratio	2.15
Inventory turnover	3.28
Net working capital	$931.1M
Quick ratio	1.58
Working capital	$1.6B
Working capital turnover	1.56

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	-2.43%
Dividend yield	0%
Shareholder yield	-2.43%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	1,783.44%
10Y return CAGR	34.13%
10Y total return	1,783.44%
150-day SMA	$469.82
15Y price change	8,349.2%
15Y return CAGR	34.42%
15Y total return	8,349.2%
1D price change	-0.56%
1M price change	-1.39%
1M total return	-1.39%
1W price change	8.03%
1W total return	8.03%
1Y price change	-43.37%
1Y return CAGR	-43.39%
1Y total return	-43.37%
20-day SMA	$412.20
200-day SMA	$480.86
20Y price change	4,309.04%
20Y return CAGR	20.84%
20Y total return	4,309.04%
3M price change	-19.28%
3M total return	-19.28%
3Y price change	111.28%
3Y return CAGR	28.31%
3Y total return	111.28%
50-day SMA	$471.34
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$764.02
52-week high date	2025-10-28
52-week low	$339.01
52-week low date	2026-04-10
5Y price change	140.58%
5Y return CAGR	19.2%
5Y total return	140.58%
6M price change	5.36%
6M total return	5.36%
All-time high	$885.92
All-time high date	2025-08-05
All-time low	$0.28
All-time low date	2002-10-16
Average true range (ATR)	$17.86
Average volume	961.9K
Beta (1Y)	1.29
Beta (2Y)	1.67
Beta (5Y)	1.44
Change from 52-week high	-44.57%
Change from 52-week low	24.92%
Change from all-time high	-52.12%
Change from all-time low	154,136.36%
Change from open	-0.36%
Day's gap	-0.2%
Dollar volume	$251.5M
High price	$425.00
Low price	$417.32
Monthly RSI	45.27
Open price	$425.00
Position in 52-week range	80.34%
Premarket change	-0.2%
Premarket close	$425.87
Premarket price	$425.00
Premarket volume	900
Previous close	$425.87
Price vs 150-day SMA	-9.72%
Price vs 20-day SMA	2.9%
Price vs 200-day SMA	-11.79%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-10.01%
Relative volume	0.62
RSI	48.02
Sharpe ratio	-0.68
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.63
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.51
Sortino ratio	-0.87
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.11
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.91
Volume	593.8K
Weekly RSI	43.3
YTD price change	-25.32%
YTD total return	-25.32%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	77.3M
Float percentage	95.16%
Shares change (QoQ)	0.08%
Shares change (YoY)	2.43%
Shares held by insiders	4.74%
Shares held by institutions	90.34%
Shares outstanding	81.2M
Short % of float	5.25%
Short % of shares	5%
Short ratio	3.6 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	183

Deeper analysis on AXON

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this AXON report

What is the latest published AXON stock rating?

Axon Enterprise Inc. is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full AXON analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, lives at /stocks/AXON/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for AXON?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-03 gives AXON a fair value of USD 219 and a potential value of USD 345. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the AXON page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-03). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellAXON · Fair value $219-47.0%

Read full analysis →

Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)

Our latest published analysis: AXON rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · AXON

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All AXON indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on AXON

Frequently asked questions

История рейтингов

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	8.5
Balance Sheet	7.5
Profitability	5.0
Revenue Growth	9.0
Risk Assessment	7.0
Competitive Moat	7.5
Earnings Quality	6.0
Capital Efficiency	2.5