BA trades against a final fair-value range of $31.93-$54.95, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $31.9, high $55.0, with mid-point at $41.6.
Stock analysis
The Boeing CompanyBA The Boeing Company fair value $42–$55
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§1 Краткое резюме
Composite fair value $42 with high case $55.
Implied downside of 82.5% to fair value.
Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 48/100 · Turnaround.
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$42
Margin of safety
-470.3%
Confidence
48/100
Moat
6.5/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$237.36Price
FV $41.62
High $54.95
BA trades against a final fair-value range of $31.93-$54.95, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Duopoly market structure with Airbus
Duopoly market structure with Airbus limits alternatives for airlines.
High switching costs due to
High switching costs due to fleet commonality and pilot training requirements.
Bull thesis
Market consensus is aggressively pricing in a flawless, immediate turnaround to pre-crisis duopoly margins.
§2 Медвежий сценарий
A prolonged inability to stabilize 737 MAX and 787 production rates due to entrenched manufacturing defects and heightened FAA scrutiny. This drives continued severe cash burn, forcing highly dilutive equity issuances or expensive debt refinancing, permanently impairing equity value.
Как может разрушиться эта теза
Severe FAA Production Cap Extension
· Medium
FAA permanently caps or significantly reduces 737 MAX production rates below 38 per month due to ongoing safety culture and quality control failures.
FV impact
Downside below $31.93 base as free cash flow stays negative.
Trigger
Next 12-18 months
Major Debt Downgrade & Liquidity Crisis
· High
Credit agencies downgrade debt to junk status amidst persistent cash burn, spiking interest costs and forcing emergency dilutive capital raises.
FV impact
Material equity dilution, threatening equity recovery.
Trigger
Next 6-12 months
Mass Order Cancellations
· Low
Key airline customers lose patience with delivery delays and safety issues, canceling bulk orders and shifting entirely to Airbus A320neo family.
FV impact
Permanent impairment of terminal growth and market share.
Trigger
Next 24-36 months
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
Метрика
Текущее
Триггерный порог
Consecutive quarters of negative operating cash flow.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Further delays in 777X certification or 737 MAX 7/10 approval.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Increase in net debt beyond current $43.5B levels.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of major airline orders to competitor Airbus.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Additional quality escapes or safety incidents in delivered aircraft.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
§3 Финансовая история
Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
Статья
T−0
T−1
T−2
T−3
CAGR
Период
2022-12-31
2023-12-31
2024-12-31
2025-12-31
Trend
Выручка
$66.61B
$77.79B
$66.52B
$89.46B
+10.3%
Валовая прибыль
$3.53B
$7.72B
$-1.99B
$4.29B
+6.7%
Операционная прибыль
$-3.51B
$-821.0M
$-10.82B
$-5.42B
—
Чистая прибыль
$-4.94B
$-2.22B
$-11.82B
$2.24B
—
EPS (разводнённая)
$-8.30
$-3.67
$-18.36
$2.48
—
EBITDA
$-482.0M
$2.32B
$-7.65B
$7.36B
—
R&D
$2.85B
$3.38B
$3.81B
$3.62B
+8.2%
SG&A
$4.19B
$5.17B
$5.02B
$6.09B
+13.3%
Баллы качества
F-балл Пиотроски
6 / 9
Сводный балл качества 0–9
Z-балл Альтмана
1.6
Риск банкротства (>3 безопасно)
M-балл Бениша
-3.02
Риск манипуляций с прибылью
OCF / Чистая прибыль
0.48×
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Fail
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
7.1%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3
Numbers analysis
Денежный поток
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCF / net income, accounting-quality, and ROIC rows above.
Распределение капитала
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
Индивидуальные подписчики — с §4ещё 11 разделов
Прочитайте полный анализ — ещё 11 разделов.
Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.
Полный отчёт по каждому покрываемому тикеру
Архив рекомендаций за 24 месяца
Брифинги списка наблюдения и алерты по изменению рекомендаций
Based on our latest independent analysis, BA looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $237 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $41.6 (range $31.9–$55.0), which implies roughly 82.5% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for BA is $31.9–$55.0, with a midpoint of $41.6. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for The Boeing Company's archetype.
Our current rating for BA is Sell with a confidence score of 48/100. BA is rated Sell at $237.36 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $41.62, implying -82.47% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 48/100. This is independent research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for The Boeing Company are: Severe FAA Production Cap Extension; Major Debt Downgrade & Liquidity Crisis; Mass Order Cancellations. The single biggest risk is Severe FAA Production Cap Extension: FAA permanently caps or significantly reduces 737 MAX production rates below 38 per month due to ongoing safety culture and quality control failures.
Our current rating for BA is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 48/100 and a moat score of 6.5/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($31.9–$55.0) versus the current price of $237.
The Boeing Company is classified as a turnaround stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for BA.
