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BIDU trades against a final fair-value range of $83.51-$235.67, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $83.5, high $236, with mid-point at $159.
Stock analysis

BIDU fair value $84–$236

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-20Следующее обновление: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Цена
$137.68
▲ +21.79 (+15.83%)
Справедливая стоимость
$159
$84–$236
Рекомендация
Покупать
confidence 82/100
Потенциал роста
+15.8%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$135.55
MoS level · 15%
Капитализация
$46.8B
P/E fwd 15.0
Английский по умолчаниюRU
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§1 Краткое резюме

  • Composite fair value $159 with high case $236.
  • Implied upside of 15.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.
Fair value
$159
Margin of safety
+13.7%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$137.68Price
Low $83.51
Mid $159.47
High $235.67

BIDU trades against a final fair-value range of $83.51-$235.67, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Search-dominance data flywheel in the
    Search-dominance data flywheel in the Chinese market with 600M+ DAU.
  • Proprietary AI infrastructure including ERNIE
    Proprietary AI infrastructure including ERNIE Bot and integrated cloud services.
  • Bull thesis
    Bull: Compelling value play on the dominant player in China's AI infrastructure evolution.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

A stress-case assuming 0% growth in the search core and permanent failure of AI monetization yields a valuation floor of $83.51. The position is protected by a $3.34B net cash bridge shown in the deterministic FCFFFree cash flow to firmCash flow available to all capital providers (debt and equity) before financing costs. Discounted at WACC to derive enterprise value. model, though negative OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. conversion (-0.539) requires careful monitoring of reinvestment efficiency.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

Structural Search Erosion

25%· Medium

Short-video and social commerce platforms accelerate traffic diversion, causing permanent advertising revenue decline and margin compression.

FV impact
High (Targeting $83 floor)
Trigger
12-24 months

Regulatory Utility Caps

15%· Low

Chinese regulators designate AI and cloud services as public infrastructure, imposing profit margin caps and restricting commercial monetization.

FV impact
Moderate (Multiple contraction)
Trigger
Ongoing

Autonomous Driving Stall

20%· Medium

Technical hurdles or safety-driven regulatory halts prevent the nationwide rollout and monetization of the Apollo Go robotaxi fleet.

FV impact
Moderate (Growth premium loss)
Trigger
24-36 months
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
Sustained quarterly decline in Baidu App Daily Active Users (DAU).MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Non-advertising revenue contribution failing to reach 30% threshold by 2027.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory suspension of Apollo Go licenses in primary Tier-1 cities.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Continued negative Operating Cash Flow to Net Income conversion beyond FY2026.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Stock-based compensation exceeding 15% of revenue as a retention necessity.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
СтатьяT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Период2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Выручка$123.68B$134.60B$133.13B$129.08B+1.4%
Валовая прибыль$59.74B$69.57B$67.02B$56.64B-1.8%
Операционная прибыль$15.91B$21.86B$21.27B$10.37B-13.3%
Чистая прибыль$7.56B$20.32B$23.76B$5.59B-9.6%
EPS (разводнённая)$19.84$55.12$65.92$11.76-16.0%
EBITDA$33.11B$49.90B$51.97B$30.85B-2.3%
R&D$23.32B$24.19B$22.13B$20.43B-4.3%
SG&A$20.51B$23.52B$23.62B$25.84B+8.0%

Баллы качества

OCF / Чистая прибыль
-0.54
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Fail
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
2.1%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3

Numbers analysis

Денежный поток

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Распределение капитала

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

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FAQ

BIDU — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, BIDU looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $138 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $159 (range $83.5–$236), which implies roughly 15.8% upside to the midpoint.

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