Необязательная аналитика продукта
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Alternative-accommodation supply, better product and large-partner integrations could extend growth while procurement savings fund the required investment.
Consolidated annual revenue growth below 5% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Strong Buy. The report-date price of $193.29 stands below Fair value of $292.84.3
The shares also stand below Potential value of $368.47, but Fair value remains the main reference.
The main risk is a merchant-led slowdown. If revenue growth stays below 5% for two years, necessary investment could weaken both profit and cash.7
The strongest upside driver is cash-funded platform investment. Better inventory, product and partner distribution can lift sales while procurement savings protect profitability.45
FY2025 operating cash flow was $9.41 billion and free cash flow was $9.09 billion.56
Inventory improvements and large-partner integrations could broaden customer choice and distribution.4
Merchant scale and connected-trip activity can link customer demand with broader inventory, although disclosed conversion and retention measures do not yet prove lasting reinforcement.47
Strong Buy because the valuation gap is supported by cash generation and credible platform investment options.5
Its mission is to make it easier for everyone to experience the world. Booking Holdings Inc. aims to provide consumers with a best-in-class experience with tailored planning, payment, language, and other options seamlessly connecting them with its travel service provider partners.
Booking Holdings Inc. offers these services through five primary consumer-facing brands: Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, and OpenTable: In the near term, the company is focused on providing consumers the ability to build a complete travel itinerary from AI-powered inspiration and planning to in-trip suggestions for attraction options.
The central stress is a merchant-led slowdown while investment remains necessary. Lower sales growth and weaker spending productivity would pressure profit and cash together.
Merchant concentration amplifies weaker transaction economics, while continued investment reduces profit and cash. Recovery requires renewed growth without further margin erosion.
If EBIT margin stays below 29% for two fiscal years, necessary product and marketing spending would absorb procurement savings and weaken earnings and cash generation.4
Post-FY2027 revenue growth below 6% for two years would show that inventory and partner initiatives did not extend growth, prompting investors to pay less for future earnings.
Пять событий, которые ослабят наш инвестиционный тезис.
A sustained slowdown would show that merchant scale and new inventory are not overcoming softer demand or competitive pressure, reducing sales growth and operating leverage.
Текущее значение:Management expected Q3 revenue growth of 4%–6% in 2026.
Предупреждение, еслиBelow 5% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Booking’s advantage depends on inventory breadth, product integration and partner reach. Better choice can lift conversion, attract more supply and reinforce the merchant business, but U.S. alternative accommodations still need investment.
Strong reported cash generation shows that the advantages currently produce owner value, but cash generation is an outcome rather than a moat source.5
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($292.84). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $7.3B after modeled capex of $322.0M, with terminal value at 68.3% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Merchant scale and strong cash generation support compounding, but later growth fades because measurable forecast visibility ends after FY2027.15
A broad beat supports merchant-led compounding.
In-line results preserve near-term visibility.
A broad miss links demand and investment pressure.
FY2025 operating cash exceeded profit; continued investment tests persistence.36
Slower growth weakens leverage.
The cash profile supports resilience because reported profit became deployable cash in FY2025. The key test is whether that remains true while product and inventory spending continues.46
Diluted average shares declined from 913.25 million in FY2023 to 815.975 million in FY2025. Future per-share gains require repurchases to remain cash-funded after investment and dividends.
The cited evidence supports strong cash generation, but this section does not establish a comparable multi-year return-on-invested-capital series.
No quantified spread is presented. The enterprise discount rate was 9.3905% as of 2026-09-08.
The resulting operating margin was 32.79% for FY2025.
Maintaining similar profitability requires procurement gains to offset ongoing product, inventory and marketing spending.
Cash from operations materially exceeded FY2025 net income of $5.40 billion.
| Выручка | 26 917 000 000 $ |
|---|---|
| Себестоимость выручки | 0 $ |
| Валовая прибыль | 26 917 000 000 $ |
| Операционные расходы | 18 092 000 000 $ |
| Операционная прибыль | 8 825 000 000 $ |
| Внереализационные статьи и налоги | -3 421 000 000 $ |
| Чистая прибыль | 5 404 000 000 $ |
| Активы, всего | 29 264 000 000 $ |
|---|---|
| Денежные средства | 17 203 000 000 $ |
| Оборотные активы | 22 264 000 000 $ |
| Обязательства, всего | 34 842 000 000 $ |
| Краткосрочные обязательства | 16 698 000 000 $ |
| Дефицит акционерного капитала | 5 578 000 000 $ |
| Чистая прибыль | 5 404 000 000 $ |
|---|---|
| Операционный приток | 9 409 000 000 $ |
| Амортизация | 623 000 000 $ |
| Компенсация акциями | 617 000 000 $ |
| Прочие операционные корректировки | 2 765 000 000 $ |
| Операционный денежный поток | 9 409 000 000 $ |
| Доступные денежные средства | 26 497 000 000 $ |
| Денежные средства на начало | 16 193 000 000 $ |
| Влияние обменного курса | 895 000 000 $ |
| Инвестиционный отток | 313 000 000 $ |
| Финансовый отток | 8 915 000 000 $ |
| Выкуп акций | 6 440 000 000 $ |
| Выплаченные дивиденды | 1 248 000 000 $ |
| Чистое погашение долга | 1 289 000 000 $ |
| Денежные средства на конец | 17 269 000 000 $ |
| Инвестиционный денежный поток | -313 000 000 $ |
| Финансовый денежный поток | -8 915 000 000 $ |
Источник: SEC EDGAR · Подано 2026-02-18 · SEC EDGAR
| Выручка по направлениям бизнеса | Выручка | Доля | г/г |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merchant Revenue | 17,8 млрд $ | 66 % | 25,5 % |
| Agency Revenue | 8 млрд $ | 29,6 % | -6,5 % |
| Advertisingandotherrevenues | 1,2 млрд $ | 4,4 % | 11,3 % |
Источник: SEC EDGAR · Подано 2026-02-18 · SEC EDGAR
| Выручка по регионам | Выручка | Доля | г/г |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non Us | 24,3 млрд $ | 90,4 % | 14,5 % |
| United States | 2,6 млрд $ | 9,6 % | 3,8 % |
Финансовые данные на конкретную дату, использованные в анализе от 2026-09-08.
| Период | Выручка | EBITDA | Чистая прибыль | Операционный денежный поток | Свободный денежный поток | Capex | Амортизация | Компенсация акциями | Выкуп акций | Выплаченные дивиденды | Чистое привлечение долга | Инвестиционный денежный поток | Финансовый денежный поток | Денежные средства на начало | Денежные средства на конец | Денежные средства и инвестиции | Общий долг | Операционная маржа | ROIC | WACC | Спред ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | 10,7 млрд $ | 3,2 млрд $ | 2,1 млрд $ | 4 млрд $ | 3,8 млрд $ | 220 млн $ | 309 млн $ | 249,7 млн $ | 1 млрд $ | 0 $ | — | -3,3 млрд $ | -1 млн $ | — | 2,1 млрд $ | 4,3 млрд $ | 6,2 млрд $ | 27,1 % | — | 7,5 % | — |
| 2017-12-31 | 12,7 млрд $ | 5 млрд $ | 2,3 млрд $ | 4,7 млрд $ | 4,4 млрд $ | 288 млн $ | 363 млн $ | 261,3 млн $ | 1,8 млрд $ | 0 $ | — | -4,2 млрд $ | -79 млн $ | 2,1 млрд $ | 2,6 млрд $ | 7,4 млрд $ | 8,8 млрд $ | 35,8 % | — | 7,2 % | — |
| 2018-12-31 | 14,5 млрд $ | 5,5 млрд $ | 4 млрд $ | 5,3 млрд $ | 4,9 млрд $ | 442 млн $ | 426 млн $ | 331 млн $ | 6 млрд $ | — | — | 2,2 млрд $ | -7,4 млрд $ | 2,6 млрд $ | 2,6 млрд $ | 6,3 млрд $ | 8,6 млрд $ | 36,8 % | — | 7,2 % | — |
| 2019-12-31 | 15,1 млрд $ | 6,9 млрд $ | 4,9 млрд $ | 4,9 млрд $ | 4,5 млрд $ | 368 млн $ | 469 млн $ | 325 млн $ | 8,2 млрд $ | — | — | 7,1 млрд $ | -8,2 млрд $ | 2,6 млрд $ | 6,3 млрд $ | 7,3 млрд $ | 7,6 млрд $ | 35,5 % | — | 6,5 % | — |
| 2020-12-31 | 6,8 млрд $ | 1,6 млрд $ | 59 млн $ | 85 млн $ | -201 млн $ | 286 млн $ | 458 млн $ | 255 млн $ | 1,3 млрд $ | — | — | 2,6 млрд $ | 1,5 млрд $ | 6,3 млрд $ | 10,6 млрд $ | 11,1 млрд $ | 12,4 млрд $ | -9,3 % | — | 6,0 % | — |
| 2021-12-31 | 11 млрд $ | 2,4 млрд $ | 1,2 млрд $ | 2,8 млрд $ | 2,5 млрд $ | 304 млн $ | 421 млн $ | 376 млн $ | 163 млн $ | — | — | -998 млн $ | -1,2 млрд $ | 10,6 млрд $ | 11,2 млрд $ | 11,2 млрд $ | 11,3 млрд $ | 22,8 % | — | 6,3 % | — |
| 2022-12-31 | 17,1 млрд $ | 4,9 млрд $ | 3,1 млрд $ | 6,6 млрд $ | 6,2 млрд $ | 368 млн $ | 451 млн $ | 404 млн $ | 6,6 млрд $ | 0 $ | 1,7 млрд $ | -518 млн $ | -4,9 млрд $ | 11,2 млрд $ | 12,3 млрд $ | 12,4 млрд $ | 12,5 млрд $ | 29,9 % | — | 8,8 % | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 21,4 млрд $ | 7 млрд $ | 4,3 млрд $ | 7,3 млрд $ | 7 млрд $ | 345 млн $ | 504 млн $ | 530 млн $ | 10,4 млрд $ | 0 $ | 1,4 млрд $ | 1,5 млрд $ | -8,9 млрд $ | 12,3 млрд $ | 12,1 млрд $ | 12,7 млрд $ | 14,2 млрд $ | 27,3 % | — | 9,0 % | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 23,7 млрд $ | 9,3 млрд $ | 5,9 млрд $ | 8,3 млрд $ | 7,9 млрд $ | 429 млн $ | 591 млн $ | 599 млн $ | 6,5 млрд $ | 1,2 млрд $ | 3,5 млрд $ | 129 млн $ | -4,2 млрд $ | 12,1 млрд $ | 16,2 млрд $ | 16,2 млрд $ | 16,6 млрд $ | 31,8 % | — | 9,8 % | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 26,9 млрд $ | 9,2 млрд $ | 5,4 млрд $ | 9,4 млрд $ | 9,1 млрд $ | 322 млн $ | 623 млн $ | 617 млн $ | 6,4 млрд $ | 1,2 млрд $ | -1,3 млрд $ | -313 млн $ | -8,9 млрд $ | 16,2 млрд $ | 17,3 млрд $ | 17,8 млрд $ | 18,7 млрд $ | 32,8 % | — | 9,1 % | — |
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) trades at 15.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 20.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 14.3x compares with a peer median of 16.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Airbnb Inc., The TJX Companies Inc., McDonald's Corporation and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., as of 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-08.
Industry capital spending was 1.3% of revenue and 1.12 times depreciation as of 2026-09-01, suggesting modest asset expansion rather than a large capacity build.
Travel demand can support Booking when capacity normalizes and travelers keep shifting among domestic and regional options. Management reported resilient demand despite route disruption.
Higher travel costs, disrupted transit corridors and macro volatility can slow room nights and bookings before platform investments produce returns.
Booking has broad geographic exposure, but competition can raise acquisition spending and weaken growth. The mixed comparison set is useful only as a boundary because business models and margins differ.
Use a normal core position, not an oversized position based on Potential value. The valuation gap is favorable, but later growth, reinvestment needs and the repurchase path remain less visible than FY2027 estimates.13
Keep sizing tied to delivered FY2026–FY2027 results and a cash-funded investment and repurchase plan, not the highest valuation outcome.
The report-date price offers a favorable gap to Fair value, supported by strong FY2025 cash generation and dated FY2027 forecasts.35
Add in stages while revenue, profitability and cash remain consistent with the base thesis.
Use a smaller staged position because post-FY2027 growth and the long-run repurchase path require further evidence.13
Strong Buy: the $193.29 report-date price is below Fair value of $292.84, while FY2025 cash generation supports the operating case.35
The view depends on merchant-led growth remaining strong enough to fund product, inventory and marketing needs without sustained margin erosion.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
A cost of equity above 12.0828% would reduce the present value of long-dated earnings even if operations remained profitable.2
Предупреждение, еслиBelow 29% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Weak growth after the visible forecast period would suggest that B2B distribution and inventory initiatives are not extending platform demand or partner economics.
Текущее значение:The FY2027 revenue forecast was $32.01 billion as of 2026-09-08.
Предупреждение, еслиBelow 6% for two consecutive post-FY2027 fiscal years.
A higher required return would make future earnings worth less today, compressing value even without an operating downturn or liquidity problem.
Текущее значение:10.0828% as of 2026-09-08.
Предупреждение, еслиAbove 12.0828% within 12 months.
Persistently weaker cash collection would reduce funds for strategic investment and repurchases, making per-share earnings growth more dependent on financing or lower spending.
Текущее значение:FY2025 operating cash was $9.41 billion versus $5.40 billion of net income.
Предупреждение, еслиOperating cash at or below 0.8 times net income for two fiscal years.
Limitation: Terminal value is 61.3% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Under the moderate discount rate, 107 $ comes from forecast-period earnings and 182 $ from the long-term value, totaling 289 $.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 68.3% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Upside persists if procurement savings fund growth work and partner distribution extends demand beyond the visible forecast period.4
Declines show investment absorbing savings.4
Performance drives consolidated results.7
Improvement broadens growth.4
Adoption can broaden distribution.4
| $34.57B |
| $36.99B |
| $39.21B |
| Operating income | $9.36B | $10.24B | $11.06B | $11.84B | $12.55B |
| NOPAT | $7.44B | $8.14B | $8.79B | $9.40B | $9.97B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $7.44B | $8.14B | $8.79B | $9.40B | $9.97B |
| Revenue growth | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% |
| Operating margin | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% |
| Tax rate | 20.6% | 20.6% | 20.6% | 20.6% | 20.6% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Diluted shares | 771.29M | 729.06M | 689.14M | 651.41M | 615.74M |
| EPS | $9.15 | $12.38 | $14.11 | $15.94 | $17.83 |
| Net margin | 24.1% | 28.2% | 28.1% | 28.1% | 28.0% |
| Implied net income | $7.06B | $9.02B | $9.72B | $10.38B | $10.98B |
| Маржа |
|---|
| BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc. | $145.2B | 15.8x | 5.1x | 14.3x | — | — |
| ABNB | Airbnb Inc. | 29.6x | 8.3x | 35.4x | 34.5% | 21.0% | |
| TJX | The TJX Companies Inc. | 22.9x | 2.3x | 17.3x | 62.2% | 10.9% | |
| MCD | McDonald's Corporation | 18.3x | 6.5x | 15.7x | — | 46.5% | |
| RCL | Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | 13.1x | 3.8x | 13.5x | 44.7% | 27.1% |
| Cash versus profit | Operating cash at or below 0.8 times profit for two fiscal years. | Reduce exposure until cash generation again supports investment and shareholder distributions.6 |
