CME trades against a final fair-value range of $181.11-$341.31, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $181, high $341, with mid-point at $261.
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$261
Margin of safety
-15.8%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$302.37Price
Low $181.11
Mid $261.16
High $341.31
CME trades against a final fair-value range of $181.11-$341.31, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Near-monopoly network effects in interest
Near-monopoly network effects in interest rate, energy, and agricultural derivatives.
Vertically integrated clearinghouse acting as
Vertically integrated clearinghouse acting as an insurmountable competitive barrier.
Cycle upside
High macroeconomic uncertainty, fluctuating rates, and geopolitical shifts drive record hedging.
Based on our latest analysis, CME screens modestly overvalued. The current price is $302 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $261 (range $181–$341), which implies roughly 13.6% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for CME is $181–$341, with a midpoint of $261. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for CME's archetype.
Our current rating for CME is Reduce with a confidence score of 88/100. CME is rated Reduce at $302.37 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $261.16, implying -13.63% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for CME are: ZIRP Return; Regulatory Fee Capping; DeFi Disruption. The single biggest risk is ZIRP Return: A return to zero interest rate policy permanently impairs interest rate volatility, collapsing core derivative trading volumes.
Our current rating for CME is Reduce, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($181–$341) versus the current price of $302.
CME is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for CME.
