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CrowdStrike is a premier endpoint security and cloud workload protection platform demonstrating rapid revenue scaling and immense operating cash flows. However, massive structural reliance on stock-based compensation currently depresses GAAP profitability and masks true unit economics. Fair value range: low $140, high $274, with mid-point at $201.
Stock analysis

CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. fair value $201–$274

CRWD
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-10Следующее обновление: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Pre-profitNASDAQ · Information Technology
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Цена
$527.77
▼ -327.06 (-61.97%)
Справедливая стоимость
$201
$201–$274
Рекомендация
Продавать
confidence 82/100
Потенциал роста
-62.0%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$170.60
buy below · 15%
Капитализация
$134.3B
P/E fwd 85.6
Английский по умолчаниюRU
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§1 Краткое резюме

  • Trading at ~85x forward PEG and ~27x EV/Rev, disconnected from fundamental realities.
  • Massive $1.09B SBC heavily suppresses true GAAP profitability and unit economics.
  • Target $200.71 assumes deceleration to ~12% growth and an 8x terminal multiple.
  • Reverse DCF shows consensus expectations are mathematically unsupportable.
Fair value
$201
Margin of safety
-163.0%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$527.77Price
FV $200.71
High $273.98

CrowdStrike is a premier endpoint security and cloud workload protection platform demonstrating rapid revenue scaling and immense operating cash flows. However, massive structural reliance on stock-based compensation currently depresses GAAP profitability and masks true unit economics.

  • Data network effects generated by
    Data network effects generated by the distributed Falcon platform.
  • High switching costs for integrated
    High switching costs for integrated enterprise cybersecurity stacks.
  • Cycle upside
    Elevated cyber threat landscape and strict regulatory mandates drive mandatory IT budget allocations toward premium vendors.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

Intensifying competition compresses growth to mid-teens earlier than expected. Simultaneously, stubborn SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. continuously dilutes shareholders, preventing EPSEarnings per shareNet income divided by weighted-average diluted shares outstanding. The headline accounting earnings figure on a per-share basis. scaling and driving extreme multiple contraction.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

Microsoft Price War

· High

Microsoft undercuts endpoint pricing, driving CRWD growth below 15% and destroying terminal margin targets.

FV impact
Severe

SBC Revolt

· Medium

Institutional investors refuse to tolerate >20% SBC/Revenue, forcing cash compensation and tanking operating cash flows.

FV impact
High

Platform Breach

· Low

A catastrophic Falcon update or architectural breach severely impairs brand trust and sinks net retention rates.

FV impact
Terminal
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
YoY revenue growth drops below 20% in the next two quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC as a percentage of revenue remains anchored above 20%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression emerges from enterprise pricing pressure.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net revenue retention consistently falls below the 120% threshold.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unfavorable shifts in the already distorted OCF-to-Net-Income ratio.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
СтатьяT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Период2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Выручка$1.45B$2.24B$3.06B$3.95B$4.81B+34.9%
Валовая прибыль$1.07B$1.64B$2.30B$2.96B$3.59B+35.4%
Операционная прибыль$-142.5M$-190.1M$-19.1M$-116.4M$-293.3M—
Чистая прибыль$-234.8M$-183.2M$72.2M$-15.2M$-162.5M—
EPS (разводнённая)$-1.03$-0.79$0.37$-0.08——
EBITDA$-66.0M$-40.8M$276.7M$298.8M$182.5M—
R&D$371.3M$608.4M$780.3M$1.08B$1.38B+39.0%
SG&A$839.6M$1.22B$1.54B$2.00B$2.50B+31.4%

Баллы качества

F-балл Пиотроски
4 / 9
Сводный балл качества 0–9
Z-балл Альтмана
12.78
Риск банкротства (>3 безопасно)
M-балл Бениша
-2.95
Риск манипуляций с прибылью
OCF / Чистая прибыль
-9.92
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Fail
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
-0.0%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3

Numbers analysis

Распределение капитала

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Индивидуальные подписчики — с §4ещё 11 разделов

Прочитайте полный анализ — ещё 11 разделов.

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FAQ

CRWD — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CRWD looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $528 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $201 (range $140–$274), which implies roughly 62.0% downside to the midpoint.

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