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Upside can persist if higher FY2027 revenue expectations become reported sales, supply remains adequate, and diluted shares continue to decline.
Monitoring assumption: annual free cash flow below $10 billion for two consecutive fiscal years.
Reduce. The report was prepared at $109.20 on 2026-09-04, above Fair value of $90.47. Cash deterioration is the main risk, while stronger post-event estimates provide upside.12
For an ordinary investor, Reduce means trimming exposure and avoiding new purchases at the report-date price.
Potential value is $135.76, but it requires sustained growth, cash generation, and margin resilience rather than a single strong quarter.
The view would weaken if annual free cash flow stayed below $10 billion for two fiscal years. That would constrain distributions and debt reduction.
The clearest upside path is conversion of higher FY2027 revenue and EPS estimates into reported results, followed by continued share retirement.15
Management reported adequate FY2027 supply and greater control over silicon commitments, with possible longer-term cost benefits.3
Q4 product orders rose 35%, including 25% growth excluding hyperscale. Orders support a demand upswing, but they remain a forward indicator rather than reported revenue.3
Reduce because the report-date price exceeds Fair value and durable cash conversion still needs confirmation.2
Reduce because the report-date price exceeds Fair value and durable cash conversion still needs confirmation.2
Its Collaboration portfolio consists of its Webex Suite, Collaboration Devices, Contact Center and Communication Platform as a Service (CPaaS) offerings. These offerings consist of software, including perpetual licenses and subscription arrangements, as well as hardware. Its objective is to create more inclusive and engaging employee and customer experiences by providing technology that enables distributed teams to collaborate effortlessly.
Cisco Technical Support provides robust assistance including software support, hardware replacement, and accelerated issue resolution to ensure that its customers’ products and networks operate efficiently and remain highly available. These offerings are critical for helping customers protect their infrastructure investments, manage operational risk and minimize downtime for systems running mission-critical applications.
The harshest operating path combines customer loss or repricing, weaker Americas demand, lower margins, and weaker cash. Lower cash would tighten debt-service and capital-allocation capacity, while EMEA and APJC provide partial diversification.
Customer loss, repricing, or weaker Americas demand would reduce sales and margins. Lower cash would then tighten distribution, reinvestment, and debt-service capacity, while EMEA and APJC provide partial diversification.
Annual free cash flow below $10 billion for two fiscal years would constrain distributions and debt reduction, weakening owner returns.24
GAAP operating margin below 21.27% for two fiscal years would show that mix, pricing, or sourcing pressure is eroding earnings power.
Пять событий, которые ослабят наш инвестиционный тезис.
Less free cash would limit distributions, reinvestment, and debt reduction. That would weaken owner returns and narrow capital-allocation flexibility while total debt remains outstanding.
Текущее значение:$12.77 billion in FY2026.
Предупреждение, еслиScenario monitoring assumption: below $10 billion for two consecutive fiscal years.
Direct supplier agreements and silicon-foundry engagement support a Narrow moat by improving component control and possibly future unit costs. Management said any margin benefit is further out, so reported savings are not established.
The cited evidence does not establish switching friction, network effects, or product-level displacement. The mixed peer set is only a valuation cross-check because growth and margins vary widely.
FY2026 free cash flow was $12.77 billion, but cash generation is an outcome rather than a moat source.4
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($90.47). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $12.7B after modeled capex of $1.2B, with terminal value at 64.0% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Cash remains durable, margins stay near the FY2026 baseline, and diluted shares continue to decline. This path fails if annual revenue or cash breaches the cited tests.45
Upside persists if higher estimates become reported sales, cash remains durable, and diluted shares keep declining. Margin stagnation or renewed dilution would disconfirm this path.
A beat matters only if annual revenue, margins, cash, and share count also improve.
Results matching estimates would preserve the reset but not resolve the valuation gap.
A broad miss would show weaker demand conversion and lower earnings power.
FY2026 operating cash exceeded reported net income, supporting cash conversion while leaving debt, stock compensation, and reinvestment as key checks.5
FY2026 operating cash flow was $14.18 billion and free cash flow was $12.77 billion. Capex was $1.41 billion, so future growth must still be checked for working-capital and investment demands.45
Cash supports dividends and repurchases, while stock compensation absorbs part of the per-share benefit. Diluted shares fell from 4.062 billion in FY2024 to 3.987 billion in FY2026.
FY2026 cash flow and operating margin are useful outcome checks, but they do not establish a multi-year return-on-capital trend.
No return spread is asserted. The cited evidence supports cash generation, not a dated multi-year comparison with the cost of capital.
The FY2026 filing reported $15.37 billion of operating income.
The resulting 24.27% operating margin provides a clear baseline for testing mix and pricing pressure.
FY2026 operating cash flow was $14.18 billion versus $13.27 billion of net income.
| Выручка | 63 325 000 000 $ |
|---|---|
| Себестоимость выручки | 22 465 000 000 $ |
| Валовая прибыль | 40 860 000 000 $ |
| Операционные расходы | 25 492 000 000 $ |
| Операционная прибыль | 15 368 000 000 $ |
| Внереализационные статьи и налоги | -2 101 000 000 $ |
| Чистая прибыль | 13 267 000 000 $ |
| Активы, всего | 129 637 000 000 $ |
|---|---|
| Денежные средства | 7 218 000 000 $ |
| Оборотные активы | 38 665 000 000 $ |
| Обязательства, всего | 79 352 000 000 $ |
| Краткосрочные обязательства | 41 525 000 000 $ |
| Акционерный капитал | 50 285 000 000 $ |
| Чистая прибыль | 13 267 000 000 $ |
|---|---|
| Операционный приток | 17 797 000 000 $ |
| Амортизация | 700 000 000 $ |
| Компенсация акциями | 3 830 000 000 $ |
| Операционный денежный поток | 14 177 000 000 $ |
| Операционный отток | 3 620 000 000 $ |
| Доступные денежные средства | 23 087 000 000 $ |
| Денежные средства на начало | 8 910 000 000 $ |
| Инвестиционный отток | 3 484 000 000 $ |
| Capex | 1 410 000 000 $ |
| Прочая инвестиционная деятельность | 2 074 000 000 $ |
| Финансовый отток | 12 347 000 000 $ |
| Влияние обменного курса | 29 000 000 $ |
| Денежные средства на конец | 7 227 000 000 $ |
| Инвестиционный денежный поток | -3 484 000 000 $ |
| Финансовый денежный поток | -12 347 000 000 $ |
Источник: SEC EDGAR · Подано 2026-09-02 · SEC EDGAR
| Выручка по операционным сегментам | Выручка | Доля | г/г |
|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | 37,8 млрд $ | 59,7 % | 12,3 % |
| Europe Middle East And Africa | 16,6 млрд $ | 26,2 % | 12,1 % |
| Asia Pacific Japan And China | 8,9 млрд $ | 14,1 % | 9,1 % |
Финансовые данные на конкретную дату, использованные в анализе от 2026-09-08.
| Период | Выручка | EBITDA | Чистая прибыль | Операционный денежный поток | Свободный денежный поток | Capex | Амортизация | Компенсация акциями | Выкуп акций | Выплаченные дивиденды | Чистое привлечение долга | Инвестиционный денежный поток | Финансовый денежный поток | Денежные средства на начало | Денежные средства на конец | Денежные средства и инвестиции | Общий долг | Операционная маржа | ROIC | WACC | Спред ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-07-29 | 48 млрд $ | 15,4 млрд $ | 9,6 млрд $ | 13,9 млрд $ | 12,9 млрд $ | 964 млн $ | 1,1 млрд $ | 1,5 млрд $ | 3,7 млрд $ | 5,5 млрд $ | — | -6 млрд $ | -3,8 млрд $ | — | 11,8 млрд $ | 70,5 млрд $ | 30,5 млрд $ | 24,9 % | — | 5,8 % | — |
| 2018-07-28 | 49,3 млрд $ | 16,2 млрд $ | 110 млн $ | 13,7 млрд $ | 12,8 млрд $ | 834 млн $ | 1,1 млрд $ | 1,6 млрд $ | 17,5 млрд $ | 6 млрд $ | — | 15,3 млрд $ | -31,8 млрд $ | 11,8 млрд $ | 9 млрд $ | 46,5 млрд $ | 25,6 млрд $ | 25,0 % | — | 6,4 % | — |
| 2019-07-27 | 51,9 млрд $ | 17,3 млрд $ | 11,6 млрд $ | 15,8 млрд $ | 14,9 млрд $ | 909 млн $ | 1 млрд $ | 1,6 млрд $ | 20,7 млрд $ | 6 млрд $ | — | 14,8 млрд $ | -27,9 млрд $ | 9 млрд $ | 11,8 млрд $ | 33,4 млрд $ | 20,5 млрд $ | 27,4 % | — | 6,2 % | — |
| 2020-07-25 | 49,3 млрд $ | 16,4 млрд $ | 11,2 млрд $ | 15,4 млрд $ | 14,7 млрд $ | 770 млн $ | 900 млн $ | 1,6 млрд $ | 2,7 млрд $ | 6 млрд $ | — | 3,5 млрд $ | -18,9 млрд $ | 11,8 млрд $ | 11,8 млрд $ | 29,4 млрд $ | 14,6 млрд $ | 27,6 % | — | 3,8 % | — |
| 2021-07-31 | 49,8 млрд $ | 15,6 млрд $ | 10,6 млрд $ | 15,5 млрд $ | 14,8 млрд $ | 692 млн $ | 800 млн $ | 1,8 млрд $ | 2,9 млрд $ | 6,2 млрд $ | — | -5,3 млрд $ | -12,1 млрд $ | 11,8 млрд $ | 9,9 млрд $ | 24,5 млрд $ | 11,5 млрд $ | 25,8 % | — | 4,4 % | — |
| 2022-07-30 | 51,6 млрд $ | 16,8 млрд $ | 11,8 млрд $ | 13,2 млрд $ | 12,7 млрд $ | 477 млн $ | 800 млн $ | 1,9 млрд $ | 7,7 млрд $ | 6,2 млрд $ | -1,9 млрд $ | 1,6 млрд $ | -16 млрд $ | 9,9 млрд $ | 8,6 млрд $ | 19,3 млрд $ | 8,9 млрд $ | 27,1 % | — | 6,1 % | — |
| 2023-07-29 | 57 млрд $ | 17,5 млрд $ | 12,6 млрд $ | 19,9 млрд $ | 19 млрд $ | 849 млн $ | 700 млн $ | 2,4 млрд $ | 4,3 млрд $ | 6,3 млрд $ | -1,1 млрд $ | -5,1 млрд $ | -11,6 млрд $ | 8,6 млрд $ | 11,6 млрд $ | 26,1 млрд $ | 8,4 млрд $ | 26,4 % | — | 7,5 % | — |
| 2024-07-27 | 53,8 млрд $ | 15,7 млрд $ | 10,3 млрд $ | 10,9 млрд $ | 10,2 млрд $ | 670 млн $ | 700 млн $ | 3,1 млрд $ | 5,8 млрд $ | 6,4 млрд $ | 19,3 млрд $ | -20,5 млрд $ | 6,8 млрд $ | 11,6 млрд $ | 8,8 млрд $ | 17,9 млрд $ | 20,1 млрд $ | 22,6 % | — | 7,3 % | — |
| 2025-07-26 | 56,7 млрд $ | 15,4 млрд $ | 10,2 млрд $ | 14,2 млрд $ | 13,3 млрд $ | 905 млн $ | 700 млн $ | 3,6 млрд $ | 6 млрд $ | 6,4 млрд $ | -2,8 млрд $ | 1,7 млрд $ | -15,8 млрд $ | 8,8 млрд $ | 8,9 млрд $ | 16,1 млрд $ | 24,6 млрд $ | 20,8 % | — | 8,3 % | — |
| 2026-07-25 | 63,3 млрд $ | 20 млрд $ | 13,3 млрд $ | 14,2 млрд $ | 12,8 млрд $ | 1,4 млрд $ | 700 млн $ | 3,8 млрд $ | 6,1 млрд $ | 6,6 млрд $ | — | -3,5 млрд $ | -12,3 млрд $ | 8,9 млрд $ | 7,2 млрд $ | 15,9 млрд $ | 22,9 млрд $ | 24,3 % | — | — | — |
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) trades at 20.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 21.1x. Its EV/EBITDA of 23.9x compares with a peer median of 21.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Texas Instruments Incorporated, Corning Incorporated, International Business Machines Corporation and QUALCOMM Incorporated, as of 2026-09-08.
Industry capital spending was 7.1% of revenue and 1.26 times depreciation as of 2026-09-01.
Q4 product orders rose 35%, including 25% growth excluding hyperscale. Orders support a demand upswing, but they remain a forward indicator rather than reported revenue.
A hardware-heavy networking cycle can pressure gross margin even while sales rise. Nonlinear hyperscale orders also make growth timing less predictable.
Management reported adequate FY2027 supply and no significant lead-time issue, supporting shipment conversion during the demand upswing.3
Below a normal portfolio weight; reduce rather than add. The report-date price exceeds Fair value, while the upper outcome depends on sustained growth, cash, and margins.2
Review customer concentration annually and avoid treating estimate revisions as proof of durable growth.
The $109.20 report-date price is above Fair value, so near-term estimate strength does not offer sufficient value support.2
Cash supports distributions, but debt and stock compensation reduce flexibility if free cash flow weakens.245
Post-event revisions support FY2027, but the duration beyond FY2028 remains conditional on delivered revenue, margins, and cash.1
Trim exposure because the $109.20 report-date price exceeds the $90.47 Fair value as of 2026-09-08.2
Keep supported upside visible, but require annual revenue, cash, margins, and share count to confirm that the post-event reset is durable.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
A cost of equity above 10.2736% would reduce what investors pay for future earnings and dividends, even if operations remain intact.
A sustained margin break would show that hardware mix, pricing pressure, or delayed sourcing benefits are reducing earnings power and cash generation.
Текущее значение:24.27% in FY2026.
Предупреждение, еслиScenario monitoring assumption: below 21.27% for two consecutive fiscal years.
A higher required return lowers what investors will pay today for future earnings and dividends, even if the operating business remains intact.
Текущее значение:8.2736% on 2026-09-08.
Предупреждение, еслиAbove 10.2736% within 12 months.
Falling below the dated estimate range would show that the post-event demand reset did not persist. Lower sales would reduce operating profit, per-share earnings, and future cash expectations.
Текущее значение:$77.80 billion analyst mean as of and retrieved 2026-09-08.
Предупреждение, еслиBelow $72.07 billion for FY2028.
A customer loss would reduce sales directly. Repricing or insourcing could also pressure margins, per-share earnings, and cash if the effect spreads to other contracts.
Текущее значение:11% of FY2026 revenue.
Предупреждение, еслиAny disclosed loss, repricing, or insourcing by that customer.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 64% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Value each distinct segment, subtract corporate overhead and net debt, add probability-weighted optionality, and divide by diluted shares.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
It tests whether sales convert into per-share profit.1
It funds distributions, debt reduction, and reinvestment.4
It reveals whether mix and sourcing improve economics.5
It shows whether repurchases exceed employee issuance.5
| FY2036 |
|---|
| Revenue | $81.78B | $86.95B | $91.35B | $95.03B | $98.39B | $101.38B | $104.17B | $106.86B | $109.51B | $112.22B |
| Operating income | $20.04B | $21.30B | $22.38B | $23.28B | $24.11B | $24.84B | $25.52B | $26.18B | $26.83B | $27.49B |
| NOPAT | $17.20B | $18.29B | $19.21B | $19.98B | $20.69B | $21.32B | $21.91B | $22.47B | $23.03B | $23.60B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $17.20B | $18.29B | $19.21B | $19.98B | $20.69B | $21.32B | $21.91B | $22.47B | $23.03B | $23.60B |
| Revenue growth | 29.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Operating margin | 24.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| Tax rate | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Debt was $31.19 billion on 2026-09-08, while FY2026 stock compensation was $3.83 billion.
If cash weakens, less remains for debt reduction, dividends, and net share retirement.
| Маржа |
|---|
| CSCO | Cisco Systems Inc. | $430.5B | 20.2x | 6.8x | 23.9x | 27.3% | — |
| TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated | 24.3x | 12.1x | 25.5x | 35.2% | 42.6% | |
| GLW | Corning Incorporated | 35.7x | 7.8x | 34.4x | 16.8% | 15.6% | |
| IBM | International Business Machines Corporation | 17.8x | 3.2x | 16.9x | 34.5% | 16.5% | |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM Incorporated | 16.5x | 4.1x | 15.4x | 33.8% | 18.5% |
| Reduce further because distribution and debt-reduction capacity would be impaired.4 |
| GAAP operating margin | Below 21.27% for two fiscal years | Reduce further because mix, pricing, or sourcing pressure would have weakened earnings power.5 |
